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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 595

creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 10:15:12 PM | message detail
Course, if Magus does make it (which I really hope he does), and Auron loses to Sonic by like 1% or something, then yeah - I'd blame Magus, and say Sonic lucked out.
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__hiei__ | Posted 10/12/2008 10:16:03 PM | message detail
did Raiden really boost this much?

i mean,Look at Crono's first match last year

Sam fisher was closer to raiden than Kaim is here.and they both got obliterated by Crono who had over 48%

MC is below 35% here on a fourpack that should be around the same level. Raiden boosted? yeah,sure,but to me this is mostly MC being a lot weaker than we thought.
creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 10:18:30 PM | message detail
I've kinda flip-flopped on this a bit. If Crono/Zidane wasn't SFF, that means Shadow and Link must have had a LOT of overlap, or Link is now at around Mario's level.

But Shadow and Link clearly had a lot of overlap (or Shadow's just become a weakling) regardless of Crono/ZIdane SFF.

And while I told people at the time that Crono/Zidane wasn't SFF, and Zidane was just weak - and I still believe it wasn't SFF - Zidane is older-school than Auron. Big gap between the FF9 and FFX fanbases, I think.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 10:19:08 PM | message detail
There really doesn't need to be much SFF between Auron and Magus. Whatever fanbase overlap exists between the two is still (logically) a lot more than whatever exists between Sonic and either of them. Throw in another mature-looking badass like Sub-Zero, and Sonic stands out bigtime as the only Nintendo/kiddy/mascot-y looking vote. Besides, even if he is intrinsically weaker than Auron now, it's not like they're worlds apart. Any tiny advantage Sonic can muster should be enough to turn the tide.

Of course, I'm still hoping for Sandbag to make it and produce the inexplicably awesome Auron > Sandbag > Sonic result I've been pining over in my dreams.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Calintares | Posted 10/12/2008 10:19:30 PM | message detail
I believe that FF IX is more vulnerable against old-Square SFF than any other Square game after FF VII, seeing as how it returned to the roots of the series and all that. I think there probably was at least some moderate degree of SFF in the Crono/Zidane match
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:22:11 PM | message detail
So far doesn't seem to be any major changes in voting patterns after the power hour... so maybe it'll go like this the rest of the night
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 10:22:44 PM | message detail
There really doesn't need to be much SFF between Auron and Magus. Whatever fanbase overlap exists between the two is still (logically) a lot more than whatever exists between Sonic and either of them. Throw in another mature-looking badass like Sub-Zero, and Sonic stands out bigtime as the only Nintendo/kiddy/mascot-y looking vote.

We had this scenario come up almost exactly last year - it was called Sonic/Squall/Sora/Sub-Zero. Except we're taking someone whose fanbase is a LOT less connected to Auron, and weakening Sonic significantly.

No way do I consider Sonic the favorite there.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:24:11 PM | message detail
Makes sense. Chief has a terrible power hour anyways, so the power hour would likely resemble the night vote in this case.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 10:26:56 PM | message detail
I hope you're right, but I still have trouble seeing it. Also, Sora may have burdened the power Square guy (in that case, Squall) with more SFF, but it's also likely that he overlaps fanbases with Sonic much more than Magus would. Thinking about it too much makes my head spin, and I'm hoping it's all a moot point anyway because GO SAND

Speaking of which, the best result of all would be Sandbag > Magus > Sonic in Round 1. Magus finally meets his 2003 expectations and beats Sonic.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:27:16 PM | message detail
I look forward to all of the "Whos that Seaweed guy?" topics tomorrow
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 10:27:46 PM | message detail
Forget Sonic, weren't his 2003 expectations to beat Link? <_<
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Calintares | Posted 10/12/2008 10:29:02 PM | message detail
To be fair, Auron is a bit weaker than Squall. And Sora might have stolen more of the "kiddy" voter than Magus will, still I agree that Sora likely hurt Squall a lot more than Magus will hurt Auron.

Let's just hope no bag of sand will block this awesome match
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Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.
paraboxx | Posted 10/12/2008 10:29:22 PM | message detail
LTTP: Wow. Either Kain's really good, or Raiden and Chief are suddenly really bad.

Either way...awesome.

Oh, and since I never got here yesterday, LOL Lucas. (And, um, I still don't see Travis bombing)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 10:29:43 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, I meant his post-2003 expectations. THANK CREATIVENAME AND HIS X-STATS EVERYONE
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:32:20 PM | message detail
I'm loving this match, as it finally shuts up all the "Chief benefits from this format" garbage that is always thrown around. I said from day 1 his run last year was ALL Halo 3 and now I'm being proven right. Feels good man :)
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 10:33:04 PM | message detail
Nice sig.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:33:24 PM | message detail
Can't win 'em all
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 10:33:26 PM | message detail
Nice sig indeed.
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CB7 Score: 78/100
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paraboxx | Posted 10/12/2008 10:33:39 PM | message detail
Chief could still pull a Fenix during the day vote, though.

...you know, I know people joke about this a lot, but this is actually really making me want to see an FF-only contest. See if we can find any more hidden gems like this. (To be fair, though, Shadow's probably the one most likely to do anything, and that's not saying much...)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:34:16 PM | message detail
An FF-only contest is the worst idea I've heard since the female villain contest.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:34:23 PM | message detail
He still benefits... just not as much as we thought.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 10:34:48 PM | message detail
Chief could still pull a Fenix during the day vote, though.

Pull a Fenix? He's Master Chief - all he has to do is pull a Master Chief.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:35:33 PM | message detail
Pull a Fenix? Chief is the original "pull a Fenix". Fenix pulled a Cheif if anything.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:36:10 PM | message detail
Chief is the king of the day vote, as evidenced by his 2 mega comebacks against frog and DK. He was down 60-40 against frog in power hour, and came back and lost by 7 VOTES.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2008 10:36:22 PM | message detail
Let me see if got this right: every MGS character that we have seen have exceeded expectations, Liquid, Big Boss and Raiden. But not Solid Snake, at least not to the degree that his peers have. Does that make sense? I don't get it

I disagree with the sentiment that Liquid Snake overperformed. Maybe a little, but not anything that noticable. He got around 47% on Luigi which is pretty close to what I'd expect him to get in 2004. Luigi's probably a little more popular than then, but not by much.
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:36:25 PM | message detail
Big Boss 40.75% / 31.28%
Kirby 40.53% / 49.95%

Looks like everyone got burned.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 10:36:34 PM | message detail
So much Xbox sexual innuendo during Chief's matches, I swear.
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Yoblazer: http://i33.tinypic.com/16hnm05.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:37:39 PM | message detail
Luigi went from getting his assed kicked by Yoshi to beating Zero and Kirby, and coming close to beating Ganondorf and outright beating Bacondorf. He also looked great against Dante despite Pikachu being there.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:38:13 PM | message detail
X-Box? More like X-Sex mirite?
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
paraboxx | Posted 10/12/2008 10:38:27 PM | message detail
Pull a Fenix? He's Master Chief - all he has to do is pull a Master Chief.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's true. But one of the few things I can still remember about last year is what Fenix did to Kefka during the day vote in R1. That was just brutal.
Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2008 10:39:12 PM | message detail
Luigi went from getting his assed kicked by Yoshi to beating Zero and Kirby, and coming close to beating Ganondorf and outright beating Bacondorf. He also looked great against Dante despite Pikachu being there.

Luigi was most likely as popular as Yoshi in 2004. He was just underanked due to being behind Link/Samus in 2003. Yoshi most likely SFFd him a little back in 2004.
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike
paraboxx | Posted 10/12/2008 10:40:58 PM | message detail
Pull a Fenix? Chief is the original "pull a Fenix". Fenix pulled a Cheif if anything.

If you know this, why are you so confident Chief's going to look bad by the end of this?

How far do you think he'll go up, anyway?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:41:34 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be at all surprised if that's true. But one of the few things I can still remember about last year is what Fenix did to Kefka during the day vote in R1. That was just brutal.

That's because most of Kefka's votes come from the night and most of Fenix's come from the day. Chief was making massive swings against night characters before Fenix was even concept art.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:41:39 PM | message detail
Because he might get 39-40% MAX, when last year he woulda done 45-50% here.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 10:41:42 PM | message detail
that was a pretty update for everyone let's go three-way ties
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:42:21 PM | message detail
Chief will probably drop a % or 2 overnight, then probably hit high-30's by the end of the match.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2008 10:42:32 PM | message detail
Fenix's comeback against Ocelot is actually the third biggest comeback of all time if you adjust for vote inflation. Keep in mind that while his comeback was only around 1,100-1,200 votes the "match" itself was pulling in under 50,000 votes.
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""This is my chance to avenge my father's death. This time, he won't walk away.""--Ike
Link The Hylian | Posted 10/12/2008 10:42:43 PM | message detail
Crap I thought it was Mortal Kombat Raiden and voted before I saw the picture.

: (

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:42:49 PM | message detail
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images//5/56/Graph1756.png
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consolefreak | Posted 10/12/2008 10:43:35 PM | message detail
Lol Chief.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:44:48 PM | message detail
I forgot Ocelot was leading by that much. That was a good match. Shame I didn't stick with my dark horse this year.
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 10:46:01 PM | message detail
kain cut OH GOD
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 10:46:22 PM | message detail
kain be cuttin'
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paraboxx | Posted 10/12/2008 10:51:14 PM | message detail
http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/board8/images//5/56/Graph1756.png

Okay, yeah, that's impressive.
Even if Frog still wound up winning the match.

Chief was making massive swings against night characters before Fenix was even concept art.

I don't know why, but this is extremely funny to me.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2008 10:53:23 PM | message detail
Wasn't Chief/Crono the biggest % swing of all time back in 2005?
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I want adventure in the great wide somewhere... I want it more than I can tell! - Belle
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/3949/beautyandthebeast21024uh9.jpg
vcharon | Posted 10/12/2008 11:06:50 PM | message detail
lol Chief
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 11:09:40 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#145)
Wasn't Chief/Crono the biggest % swing of all time back in 2005?



It was 31% to 39%, so Frog match is still bigger since he went from 38% to 50%
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transience | Posted 10/12/2008 11:16:50 PM | message detail
Kain cut aw yeah

almost cut Chief
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vcharon | Posted 10/12/2008 11:19:17 PM | message detail
I should have called MC not even hitting 40%, much less 50%. Say goodbye to him taking down anyone I thought he could... ugh, overestimated his ass once again.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 11:20:19 PM | message detail

vcharon (#149)
I should have called MC not even hitting 40%, much less 50%. Say goodbye to him taking down anyone I thought he could... ugh, overestimated his ass once again.



He's still the favorite to get to round 4, just cuz Bacon gave him such an easy division. Only thing that changes is that he might not get first in all rounds.
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