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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 594

XxSoulxX | Posted 10/12/2008 2:04:03 PM | message detail
Alright, just finished building a bathroom stand that took way longer then I was expecting it too, and it was a great way to release all of that anger.

So, anyone want to have a sig bet or something on the Sandbag match? I've got Sonic > Magus.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/12/2008 2:13:37 PM | message detail
Despite having two characters under 10% the vote total in this match is decent we are heading to come just short of 135k.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 75/96 Today's Match: Kirby > Big Boss
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 2:14:45 PM | message detail
Despite having two characters under 10% the vote total in this match is decent we are heading to come just short of 135k.

Big Boss compelling the electorate to vote with his pointing confirmed
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Tohoya | Posted 10/12/2008 2:15:41 PM | message detail
Hardcore fans have been voting for Mega Man for 6 years.

One game isn't changing that.


If you think that hardcore fans, which in this context just seems to be people who have enjoyed the older Mega Man games and are enjoying MM9 right now, have voted for Mega Man above every single other character without fail, you're not thinking things through very well. Again, I hardly doubt that I'm alone in being a fan of the old MM games, and having my preferences for MM shoot up owing to MM9.

And I don't think that the difficulty should be too much of a hindrance to MM boosting- we are, after all, on a site full of hardcore gamers. Obviously, there are a great many fans who could handle the difficulty of the original MM games and MMX- and quite a lot of them, to put him in the noble 9 instead of being a cult character like Amaterasu. MM9 isn't all that more challenging than those.

Moreover, recency is likely to boost MM a good bit. Again, it's been since the 16-bit era that he's had a major release, up until Mega Man 9. There are people who can appreciate a hard game who picked up gaming in the 32-bit era and beyond. I personally picked up my Mega Man love with Anniversary Collection, but I can't tell you how many people I've talked to for whom MM9 was their first Mega Man, and they loved it.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/12/2008 2:35:44 PM | message detail
Just get to the games contest =/
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2008 2:37:13 PM | message detail
This is the first 2008 match I'd take over a standard games contest match, methinks (although Cube/Tidus was also good).
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 2:50:55 PM | message detail
Someone somewhere mentioned 4-ways increasing site traffic.

Site traffic is indeed what the whole objective of these contests, but it's blind to ignore the fact that internet traffic and site traffic increase well into the double digits percent-wise every single year. 1-on-1 contests would have huge record-breaking vote totals as well, that's an utter and complete given. ...as long as it isn't a villains contests of course ;)

The only thing you could say is that a 1-on-1 final maybe couldn't match last year's 4-way final - but that was because of L-Block being there and inducing an internet frenzy, which was completely unexpected and needed a perfect storm of bracket placement, and if he gets there again unlikely to be fully replicated. That was the only block match where he increased traffic substantially anyway. Also there's more examples of frenzy-inducing 1-on-1 matches than 4-way matches; course there's been more 1-on-1's, but there's typically a flukey-high vote total 1-on-1 match for every mano-e-mano contest.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/12/2008 2:55:52 PM | message detail
Game Fuel for MC = Spinnach for Popeye

I called this last year, in which I said that Master Chief would boost because of Mountain Dew Game Fuel (the Game Fuel Factor). And Halo 3 as well.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
ffmasterjose | Posted 10/12/2008 2:56:05 PM | message detail
If done right, a 1v1 contest could draw just as much activity as 4v4. Nay-sayers could just argue about predictability, but again, if done right it could be more unpredictable than anything.

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75/96 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Kirby > Big Boss | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 2:56:59 PM | message detail
I'd be okay with going back to 1v1 after 3 or 4 years of 4ways, since then the unpredictability is back in 1v1 with the boosts and deboosts of characters.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2008 3:01:11 PM | message detail
I kinda thought the same thing: what if the character battles were to switch from one-on-one and vice-versa every five years? It's hard to say and I doubt SB actually thought that far into this...but, I mean, that could work reasonably. Just when we think we're starting to have all the answers, flip it back around and such, you know?

I think seeing whether the upcoming Game Contest is one-on-one or four-way will be a big hint on SB's vision of future contests.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 3:02:11 PM | message detail
Just the fact we're questioning how well Chief would do in 1v1 shows theres some unpredictabiltiy back into 1v1s after 4ways.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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ffmasterjose | Posted 10/12/2008 3:02:32 PM | message detail
I really doubt a soft drink did anything for him Luster. Mario was on "Got Milk?" billboards a couple years ago and I'm pretty sure it didn't boost him.
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75/96 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Kirby > Big Boss | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2008 3:03:37 PM | message detail
You forget the golden rule of the GameFAQs demographic: Mountain Dew > milk.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 3:04:37 PM | message detail
It was Gamer Fuel, too. Gamer Fuel > Milk
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/12/2008 3:04:38 PM | message detail
If we have one on one I'm pretty sure the vote totals will drop (something small like 130k to 120k) though any SFF or LFF matches will show a sharp decrease of vote totals. As for unpredictability we have so many questions like; how will Master Chief/Sonic characters perform, is the site shifting away from Nintendo, how will joke characters like L-Block perform?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 75/96 Today's Match: Kirby > Big Boss
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/12/2008 3:05:08 PM | message detail
I really doubt a soft drink did anything for him Luster.

Well, it also sponsored Halo 3 in addition to having Master Chief on the bottle.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/12/2008 3:05:10 PM | message detail
I kinda thought the same thing: what if the character battles were to switch from one-on-one and vice-versa every five years? It's hard to say and I doubt SB actually thought that far into this...but, I mean, that could work reasonably. Just when we think we're starting to have all the answers, flip it back around and such, you know?

I don't know about this five year plan. Why not have a normal rotation. One year, 1 on 1 Characters. Next year, 1 on 1 Games. Third year, 4 way Characters. Fourth year, 4 way Games. Then just keep rotating.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2008 3:09:30 PM | message detail
For a long time, I was up for rotation like that...but at this point, I think characters have got to remain annual. I'd like to see game-contests become annual too, but I'd be okay to see it be something like bi-annual...and rotate its format every time too keep it even fresher. Say in 2009, it's one-on-one...then four-ways in 2011, back to one-on-one in 2013, what have you.

At this point though, again, pretty sure characters will remain annual and I feel like -- at this point -- it should stay that way.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 3:10:07 PM | message detail
I think seeing whether the upcoming Game Contest is one-on-one or four-way will be a big hint on SB's vision of future contests.

Dear god in heaven I hope the Game Contest isn't 4-way. That would SUCK beyond belief. I hadn't even contemplated that.


If we have one on one I'm pretty sure the vote totals will drop (something small like 130k to 120k)

Wow, this couldn't be further from the truth. Like I said - vote totals will increase every single year, because the internet always grows. It's a total given.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 3:11:18 PM | message detail
Dear god in heaven I hope the Game Contest isn't 4-way. That would SUCK beyond belief. I hadn't even contemplated that.

Best. contest. ever.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 3:11:50 PM | message detail
The only contest we could have that would truly increase vote totals abnormally is a "fictional character" type of contest - where you could have Batman and Darth Vader as entrants. Such a contest would easily draw more votes than any other type of contest.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 3:12:42 PM | message detail
Meant "fictional characters who've appeared in games" of course.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 3:13:31 PM | message detail
It should be anyone whos appeared in a game

John Madden for 09 champ
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/12/2008 3:14:22 PM | message detail
A four-way game contest would honestly be killer...but I would still rather see another one-on-one game contest (at least first).
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 3:16:15 PM | message detail
4 way game contest

TOTAL unpredictability. TOTAL FUN
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 3:17:40 PM | message detail
Wow, this couldn't be further from the truth. Like I said - vote totals will increase every single year, because the internet always grows. It's a total given.

*sigh* What's up 2004
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/12/2008 3:48:25 PM | message detail
A four-way game contest would honestly be killer...but I would still rather see another one-on-one game contest (at least first).

Same here. We desperately need a one on one games contest.
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Good Times,
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Big Bob | Posted 10/12/2008 3:50:46 PM | message detail
In 2004 the poll wasn't on top of the front page. That's why the vote totals were lower.
creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 3:51:38 PM | message detail
Well I don't know what the vg industry grew by from those years, but vote totals are tied to that more than anything I should say, even moreso than internet growth. And industry revenues have been skyrocketing at a 20%-30% annual clip the last couple years.

Really though, it's not like highly increasing vote totals over time is questionable.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 3:52:10 PM | message detail
In 2004 the poll wasn't on top of the front page. That's why the vote totals were lower.

Oh yeah. Bingo.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 3:53:55 PM | message detail
I think most of us would agree a normal games contest would've been the best option this year. That would've been even more fun than this contest has been, and we've had some good stuff this contest.

And just imagine how much people would've overrated Brawl :)
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 3:55:45 PM | message detail
Game contests and series contests never interest me. I prefer characters, which is why I was basically a nos how and barely followed the last game and series contests. Just totally boring for me
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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Lopen | Posted 10/12/2008 3:56:02 PM | message detail
And just imagine how much people would've overrated Brawl :)

The irony of it all now is that when we do get one people are probably going to massively underrate it.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 3:56:31 PM | message detail
In 2004 the poll wasn't on top of the front page. That's why the vote totals were lower.

The poll didn't move for most of the first round of the 2004 Games Contest, the votals were still well below the 2k3 benchmark. Even when the poll was repositioned in 2k5, it took quite some time for it to return to 2k3 levels.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 3:56:51 PM | message detail
I followed series contest so little, I wouldn't even be able to tell you what year it was, or who was in the final matches
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/12/2008 4:01:02 PM | message detail
But speaking of Games contests, a better nomination system would be in order. After all, thanks to the crappy nomination system back in 2k4, all Starcraft got for its efforts was a 16 seed and a date with Halo - the most overseeded game in the entire contest.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 4:09:27 PM | message detail
I think they should ALWAYS do a character battle every year, but maybe have spring game contests. But NEVER EVER replace a character battle with a game battle
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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Big Bob | Posted 10/12/2008 4:10:24 PM | message detail
The poll didn't move for most of the first round of the 2004 Games Contest, the votals were still well below the 2k3 benchmark. Even when the poll was repositioned in 2k5, it took quite some time for it to return to 2k3 levels.

While it's true that the games contest following the characters contest didn't get as many votes, that could have to do with the season. Summer contests will naturally get more votes than Spring or fall, thanks to lots of people being on vacation and having more time on their hands. And the poll was not repositioned back on the top of the page for the 2k5 contest. The series contest was the first contest with the poll back at the top, and it shattered 2003's records.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 4:10:25 PM | message detail
I wouldn't have any high expectations for the Games Contest's nomination system based on how Bacon worded it back a couple months ago.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/12/2008 4:11:01 PM | message detail
Series contest in 2006, I might add.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2008 4:17:31 PM | message detail
And the poll was not repositioned back on the top of the page for the 2k5 contest.

You're gonna want to check the stats topic archives for the 2005 contest.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/12/2008 4:27:45 PM | message detail
I'm not going to dig through tons of archives looking for someone, anyone to mention the poll change. If you can find it for me, I'll admit I'm wrong.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/12/2008 4:29:49 PM | message detail
http://web.archive.org/web/20050510001729/http://www.gamefaqs.com/
http://web.archive.org/web/20050725233043/http://www.gamefaqs.com/
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/12/2008 4:31:48 PM | message detail
I first voted in the Contests in 2k5, and I can assure you I've never seen a match anywhere but where it is now.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/12/2008 4:32:37 PM | message detail
I miss when those Gamespot people used to be on the bottom
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/12/2008 4:32:39 PM | message detail

WarThaNemesis2 (#245)
I first voted in the Contests in 2k5, and I can assure you I've never seen a match anywhere but where it is now.



ZenOfThunder (#244)
http://web.archive.org/web/20050510001729/http://www.gamefaqs.com/
http://web.archive.org/web/20050725233043/http://www.gamefaqs.com/


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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/12/2008 4:32:53 PM | message detail
Wait, what? I don't remember the poll being there...

....I'm going crazy.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2008 4:42:59 PM | message detail
I'm also fairly confident that the poll switched before the 2006 contest, not the 2005 one. The poll numbers for pre-poll switch Sp2004 were weaker then the Summer, but not by that much. It was probably just because it happened in the spring.
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PokemonPatriarch | Posted 10/12/2008 4:54:02 PM | message detail
All right, so here are two questions for you all, so that we can predict the BB / Kirby / Master Chief / Raiden match:

With regard to the BB/Kirby/MC/Raiden match...

How many of the 48% who voted for Big Boss today will still vote for him next month?

How many of the 37% who voted for Kirby today will still vote for him next month?
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