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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 593

ffmasterjose | Posted 10/11/2008 11:36:32 PM | message detail
I never really thought about it until just now, but there are way too many fodder characters that got in this year, haha. I'm looking right at you Division 6. During the bracket making process I didn't pay too much attention to them, if I didn't recognize their names I just knew they were going to suck.

'tis a shame really. Most of the entire Brawl cast getting in was also a crapdeal. Seifer could have easily won a match or two with favorable bracket placement, though I honestly think he'd be at least a mid-carder on his own.

Oh well, what can ya do?

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75/96 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Kirby > Big Boss | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/11/2008 11:36:38 PM | message detail
But a new game with Alucard on the 360/PS3 will give him a boost regardless of how it is.

Although I want it to be 2D as well...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/11/2008 11:36:39 PM | message detail
47% Get!
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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ZFS | Posted 10/11/2008 11:36:58 PM | message detail
Big Boss is over 47% what in the world

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kept you waiting, huh
Percius_Mercius | Posted 10/11/2008 11:38:13 PM | message detail
wait, if shepard's in this contest

why hasn't revan made an appearance at any point? he/she could've been moderate fodder around the time kotor 2 was released...
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/11/2008 11:38:27 PM | message detail
oh god is there some kinda huge MGS4 boost that we haven't seen yet?
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/11/2008 11:39:07 PM | message detail
wait, if shepard's in this contest

why hasn't revan made an appearance at any point? he/she could've been moderate fodder around the time kotor 2 was released...


Because the KotoR nominations went to HK
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/11/2008 11:39:36 PM | message detail

Percius_Mercius (#305)
wait, if shepard's in this contest

why hasn't revan made an appearance at any point? he/she could've been moderate fodder around the time kotor 2 was released...



Cuz nobody bothered nominating him since he was popular when Xbox wasn't relevant on Gamefaqs.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/11/2008 11:46:45 PM | message detail
I tried to get Revan in this year, but he just didn't have enough support. It's a total shame, especially considering some of the other entrants who made it. If he ends up with any sort of significant presence in the upcoming KotOR RPG (and assuming the game itself ends up good and popular), we should definitely try again. Arthas was certainly worth getting in, and I don't see why a cool looking character named Darth Revan wouldn't be.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/11/2008 11:48:49 PM | message detail
Darth Revan nowadays wouldn't be very strong unless he has a big role in the new Kotor game.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/11/2008 11:51:43 PM | message detail
Nobody expects Jinjo under 12%!
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Big Bob | Posted 10/11/2008 11:53:43 PM | message detail
When I first made my bracket I assumed any names I couldn't quickly recognize would just fail.

Well SORRY for forgetting some minor character in Final Fantasy VII.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/11/2008 11:57:34 PM | message detail

Big Bob (#312)
When I first made my bracket I assumed any names I couldn't quickly recognize would just fail.

Well SORRY for forgetting some minor character in Final Fantasy VII.



What other names could you not recognize and assumed would fail have not
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 12:05:28 AM | message detail
so BB has like 57.5% on Kirby alone at the moment

that's like 'decent sprite' Snake numbers on Kirby

i pity anyone who actually thinks this is BB's legit strength or thinks that Kirby has fallen to DK levels or whatever

(lone kirby defense force approves of this post)
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Moltar Status: augh
Big Boss/Jinjo/Kirby/Lucas - Bracket: Kirby > Big Boss - Vote: Kirby (75/96)
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:07:24 AM | message detail

Master Moltar (#314)
so BB has like 57.5% on Kirby alone at the moment

that's like 'decent sprite' Snake numbers on Kirby

i pity anyone who actually thinks this is BB's legit strength or thinks that Kirby has fallen to DK levels or whatever

(lone kirby defense force approves of this post)



Or maybe MGS4 has done wonders for him. Pic alone wouldn't do this.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 12:07:56 AM | message detail
MGS4 superboost is the only explanation here
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:08:34 AM | message detail
Pic alone coudl have given him a close win. But pic alone isn't making him beat Kirby by 13-14% or whatever it'll end up at.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2008 12:11:27 AM | message detail
i'll buy mgs4 superboost once raiden wastes mc tomorrow
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Moltar Status: augh
Big Boss/Jinjo/Kirby/Lucas - Bracket: Kirby > Big Boss - Vote: Kirby (75/96)
ZFS | Posted 10/12/2008 12:11:58 AM | message detail
book it

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kept you waiting, huh
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:13:18 AM | message detail
If Raiden somehow does 25% tomorrow, the boost is real.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/12/2008 12:17:04 AM | message detail
Raiden wasting MC tomorrow is so painfully obvious I can't believe no one took it.

Obviously.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:17:50 AM | message detail
after seeing big boss though, maybe Raiden will surprise. Who knows, lol.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:27:48 AM | message detail
oh my god, Naked Snake is pulling out 60% updates now
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vcharon | Posted 10/12/2008 12:35:23 AM | message detail
Wow... Big Boss is going to hit 48% before morning.
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:>
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:35:46 AM | message detail
He's at 47.72% now.. he might hit 49%!
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/12/2008 12:58:55 AM | message detail
If Big Boss finishes the match with 50% or higher, then he would have performed on the level of a Noble Nine character. Since only the Noble Nine are capable of breaking 50% in this format.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 12:59:46 AM | message detail

-LusterSoldier- (#326)
If Big Boss finishes the match with 50% or higher, then he would have performed on the level of a Noble Nine character. Since only the Noble Nine are capable of breaking 50% in this format.



I guess Chief will be noble 9 tomorrow, too.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/12/2008 1:02:06 AM | message detail
I guess Chief will be noble 9 tomorrow, too.

I doubt it. I have my Oracle prediction for Chief set around 46%.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:03:26 AM | message detail
Whos gonna stop him from hitting 50%? He's with Raiden, a lower mid carder, and 2 fodder.

Heres my prediction:

Master Chief - 52%
Raiden - 26%
Kain - 16%
Layton - 6%
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:03:33 AM | message detail
This is waaaay more pic factor than MGS4 boost. I'm surprised to see anyone even try to argue otherwise.

Though I am a certainly believer in the boost. (except with Snake himself, due to the Brawl de-boost thing; it would be a smaller proportion for him than for the supporting characters anyway)

The expectations for Raiden and Chief tomorrow seem to be in the 26%-29% and 42%-45% range respectively. So let's say Raiden's expected to get around 37ish% of the Raiden/Chief votes. Many of the Raiden preds probably already factor in the boost though. So I don't exactly know what Raiden needs to do to show he boosted, but 30% of the total votes would be very impressive.

On Chief, I wonder if he'll be the same as last year. if the Brawl de-boost has anything to do with hype wearing off, he might be hurt, since Halo 3 hype was at its apex during last contest. But I think the de-boost may largely be due a reduction in Nintendo's game sales market share, so I think Chief will be roughly the same as last year.
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vcharon | Posted 10/12/2008 1:03:43 AM | message detail
Chief is not going to break 50%.
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:>
vash_131 | Posted 10/12/2008 1:03:58 AM | message detail
Dante could prolly get near 50% seeing how weak his competition is.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:04:42 AM | message detail
This is waaaay more pic factor than MGS4 boost. I'm surprised to see anyone even try to argue otherwise.

Pic factor can give him a win over Kirby, yes. But 13% more? No, this is MGS4 boost.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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greatone10 | Posted 10/12/2008 1:05:44 AM | message detail
Geez, what on earth happened to Big Boss!? Man I hope that Raiden is going to take a big chunk of his fanbase next round.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:05:58 AM | message detail

vcharon (#331)
Chief is not going to break 50%.



And I asked, whos gonna stop him? He's with possibly the weakest character of the contest, likely the weakest FF4 character, and Raiden, whos the weakest of the recurring MGS characters in this contest. I'd peg Squall and Vincent to get 50%+ in that match, too.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:08:58 AM | message detail
Sorry, that's supposed to be 43%-46% expectations for Chief.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:09:08 AM | message detail
Don't forget that Chief has proven to be stronger in this format then other Noble Niners like Sonic and Crono, and Crono got 49% in a tougher match.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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Xuxon | Posted 10/12/2008 1:09:12 AM | message detail
I just noticed, Bacon called him MC in the pic. Why wouldn't he put Chief?
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:10:42 AM | message detail
Pic factor can give him a win over Kirby, yes. But 13% more? No, this is MGS4 boost.

More than pic factor? Sorry, that's plain nuts.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:11:04 AM | message detail
Ah well, doesn't matter much. You guys will all be proven wrong tomorrow when Chief rips up the match.

Believe
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:12:29 AM | message detail
Wait - I remember often seeing people saying derogatory things about "Albion", and not knowing who they were talking about. Is that you?
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greatone10 | Posted 10/12/2008 1:12:42 AM | message detail
Wow, this hasn't been a good two day stretch for Mother/Earthbound fans. Ness gets dominated by Pac-Man and now Lucas is only going slightly better in this match percentage wise than Tanner got against Snake and is getting doubled by Jinjo.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:12:42 AM | message detail
Not like what you all think means much, anyway. You probably all picked Kirby to beat NAKED SNAKE xD!
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:13:13 AM | message detail

creativename (#341)
Wait - I remember often seeing people saying derogatory things about "Albion", and not knowing who they were talking about. Is that you?



Yep, I'm Albion.
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:14:05 AM | message detail
Chief will rip up the match.

And if Kain disappoints and Layton flops way harder than he's already expected to flop, and Raiden does so-so, then yeah Chief could approach 50%.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/12/2008 1:14:22 AM | message detail
Hey, Lucas beat Jinjo in an update.

...Ten minutes after getting a 3% update.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:14:51 AM | message detail
If you expect Chief to get from 43-46, what do you expect the others to do? Kain with over 20%? Layton over 10%?
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Master Chief > Sonic ...... Believe
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:18:46 AM | message detail
Oh, and I also agree with the other part of your sig - Chief placing above Sonic in that round. That's what in my bracket, and I picked it because I expected it, not as an upset.

I think right now it wouldn't be much of an upset to everybody (what's the opposite of SonicFEAR - SonicFAIL?), though that could change based on their upcoming matches. Maybe Sonic surprises us, or Chief makes himself into the clear favorite over Sonic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/12/2008 1:20:03 AM | message detail
Sonic characters are looking like a joke so far this year, so I can't see that as a good sign for Sonic at all.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2008 1:21:15 AM | message detail
If you expect Chief to get from 43-46, what do you expect the others to do? Kain with over 20%? Layton over 10%?

I wasn't talking about my expectations, I was talking about a glance at Oracle predictions. Of course they vary a lot more than that range, but I wanted to give a tighter range because that makes it simpler.

I expect 45+% from Chief probably.
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