GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 591
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2008 1:38:35 AM | message detail |
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Yes I'm making this topic really early, but it's because I really,
*really* need your help and the stats topic is amazing with archiving
contest stuff. Please visit this link and go nuts:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45766338 ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- "A joke format for a joke contest deserves joke winners." -Moltar Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2008 11:30:21 AM | message detail |
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How about we wait until Mewtwo's match before making predictions? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 63/84 Today's Match: Squall > Yoshi |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:30:41 AM | message detail |
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"There was no logic fighting there. Falcon > Diddy in Brawl, plus he
has Melee to work with combine with that nobody except for board 8
cares about Diddy Kong, read my analysis." doesn't explain Kratos who was 60-40 over Falcon. That match defied logic, and if that one did, others have potential to as well. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:31:20 AM | message detail |
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charmander6000 (#002) Agreed. Saying he's reaching the quarters with his only match ever being knocked out in the first round is premature. We need to see more of him. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:31:45 AM | message detail |
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To play Devil's Advocate on Squall... Vincent boosted from DoC.
Squall had KH2. It stands to reason that considering how close they
were in 2005, and that KH2 should have FAR more lasting power than DoC
that Squall > Vincent is more than a reasonable upset. I probably
wouldn't take it at the moment, but it's sexy as hell. Yeah, I had forgotten that the boosting take place after Squall/Vincent and not beforehand. I would not call anyone taking Squall > Vincent foolish, or venture to call it a bad pick. I'm pretty positive I'd side with Vincent, but by no means is it a lock. There's so close anything could tip the scales one way or the other. --- mmm test icicles |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/9/2008 11:32:14 AM | message detail |
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charmander6000 (#002) How about we wait until Mewtwo's match before making predictions? Agreed. Saying he's reaching the quarters with his only match ever being knocked out in the first round is premature. We need to see more of him. Seconded. --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:32:49 AM | message detail |
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Plus, Dissidia. It might not be a factor this year, but next year Squall will be in Dissidia with Vincent no where to be seen. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2008 11:34:09 AM | message detail |
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doesn't explain Kratos who was 60-40 over Falcon. That match defied
logic, and if that one did, others have potential to as well. Falcon was SFF last year plus ToS is pass its time. Though the amount that Falcon won by surprised me. Still not against logic. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 63/84 Today's Match: Squall > Yoshi |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2008 11:34:55 AM | message detail |
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You have to fight against logic for some of these matches. Alucard > Falcon If you want to gamble against logic and evidence, that's fine, but the house usually wins for a reason. Just saying...if you had 20 in Blackjack and you decide to hit, don't be surprised when the table heckles you the rest of the night. Yes, because we haven't really seen much of him yet. He's likely a bit declined from last year as well since he was mainly popular from Melee, and yet he was a snub in Brawl. I'm stopping the argument here. Mewtwo was terrible in SSBM and gained next to nothing in comparison to his fanbase in the Pokemon series. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/9/2008 11:35:04 AM | message detail |
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Don't forget about Dissidia as well. It is/will give Squall even more of a boost that Vincent won't have. KB |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:35:09 AM | message detail |
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No one is saying he's making the quarters. It's not even guaranteed
that it's going to be Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo. We're simply
postulating over the possibility of that happening. What would you
prefer us to do? Sit here with our hands clasped on our laps and talk
about Squall and Yoshi increasing or decreasing every update? That's
the entire point of this topic. We're going to speculate about future
round matches based on current match results. And if Cloud/Squall/Sora/Mewtwo does happen to be the match that takes place, I've already stated that I think every character in that poll has a place at taking second. I don't think anyone really called Mewtwo a lock for 2nd there. Yoblazer might be the only one, I don't feel like going back and checking. You're saying however, that mewtwo has absolutely no chance. If anything, you're being the ridiculous one. --- mmm test icicles |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/9/2008 11:35:44 AM | message detail |
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why do you guys even argue with him augh --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:35:48 AM | message detail |
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I'm stopping the argument here. Mewtwo was terrible in SSBM and
gained next to nothing in comparison to his fanbase in the Pokemon
series. Well I'm not a Pokemon fan so I only knew him from Melee until I found out he was a Pokemon later on >_>; --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/9/2008 11:36:00 AM | message detail |
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Sorry Bonne, I was typing that up in the other topic before it closed... KB |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:36:47 AM | message detail |
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TestIcicles (#011) He has less chance then Squall and Sora. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:38:14 AM | message detail |
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Well I'm not a Pokemon fan so I only knew him from Melee until I found out he was a Pokemon later on >_>; Which would explain your terrible comparison of Mewtwo and Lucario. Mewtwo has so many more things going for him it's not even funny. If you don't know anything about the fanbase you really shouldn't be tossing your opinions around like fact. It's comparable to someone seeing Luigi barely beat Liquid Snake and then saying "MAN MARIO SUCKS." --- mmm test icicles |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:39:42 AM | message detail |
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TestIcicles (#016) I know more about him now though. Like Mewtwo mainly became popular from a movie (So did Lucario), then got added to the newest Smash Bros game cuz of his surge of popularity from the movie (So did Lucario), and is now basically forgotten, like Roy is who was only added to melee to promote his new game. I don't see how they're that different. Care to explain? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/9/2008 11:40:36 AM | message detail |
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Taggage. I dunno what I can do to help that other topic, but I'll do whatever I can! --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 10/9/2008 11:40:39 AM | message detail |
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don't do it EC don't explain fight the urge --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2008 11:43:08 AM | message detail |
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A team of six Mewtwos in R/B/Y was scary in the hands of someone who knows what they're doing. A team of six Lucarios, not so much. Basically Mewtwo gained a lot of his popularity because he was literally the strongest pokemon in R/B/Y with little to no weaknesses, Tobybro (Slowbro) was one of the few things that could stand up to it. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 63/84 Today's Match: Squall > Yoshi |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:43:22 AM | message detail |
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Also please don't make me go all Hochi on all of you. Since among
regulars in this topic, only Yo has more points, I don't wanna have to
use my proven knowledge of projecting it right to prove I'm right =( --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:43:54 AM | message detail |
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A team of six Mewtwos in R/B/Y was scary in the hands of someone who knows what they're doing. So a powerful pokemon from 10 years ago is viable now... how? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/9/2008 11:44:14 AM | message detail |
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Cloud > Miles E is the upset that's gonna change history Believe yes, I'm thus saying that Bidoof > Midna and Axel Steel. --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:44:46 AM | message detail |
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Well Bidoof did lead Vincent for 90 minutes. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:48:48 AM | message detail |
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I know more about him now though. Like Mewtwo mainly became popular
from a movie (So did Lucario), then got added to the newest Smash Bros
game cuz of his surge of popularity from the movie (So did Lucario),
and is now basically forgotten, like Roy is who was only added to melee
to promote his new game. I don't see how they're that different. Care
to explain? Mewtwo is from R/B/Y the most popular Pokemon game by far. Mewtwo is the most sought after Pokemon in the game, and the most overpowered pokemon of all time. Mewtwo staring in the Pokemon film was when everyone still cared about Pokemon animation, and not just the video game, and it was absolutely huge. I never even heard about Lucario being in a pokemon movie, or there even being a new pokemon movie out. They're not even comparable, and Lucario has none of what Mewtwo has going for him, other than appearing in one Smash game and absolutely sucking. --- mmm test icicles |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:50:05 AM | message detail |
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I was under the impression most of the original Pokemon players have
grown up and don't play it anymore, though. Pikachu only stays strong
cuz he's the face of the franchise. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2008 11:50:25 AM | message detail |
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So a powerful pokemon from 10 years ago is viable now... how? He probably was stronger back in the day. It's what got him his popularity and if you ask a random pokemon fan who the strongest pokemon is you'll usually get Mewtwo as the answer despite Lugia becoming better than Mewtwo back in G/S/C. Also people who watched the 1st movie with Mewtwo > people who watches the nth movie with Lucario. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 63/84 Today's Match: Squall > Yoshi |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:50:27 AM | message detail |
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Also please don't make me go all Hochi on all of you. Since among
regulars in this topic, only Yo has more points, I don't wanna have to
use my proven knowledge of projecting it right to prove I'm right =( I won the guru in the 4-way format last year. Shut up. --- mmm test icicles |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:51:18 AM | message detail |
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TestIcicles (#028) Where are you this year? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| The Real Truth | Posted 10/9/2008 11:53:22 AM | message detail |
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Man Squall looks awesome today. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:54:14 AM | message detail |
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Because the contest is over right? The point wasn't that my opinions
are better than yours because I won the guru, the point is it doesn't
****ing matter how well your bracket is doing, if your arguments are
terrible and completely off-base. You could end up being 100% correct
in Mewtwo finishing a distant 4th in the potential match-up, and you'd
still look like a fool with the crap you spout. --- mmm test icicles |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:55:43 AM | message detail |
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TestIcicles (#031) Or I could look like a genius with him completly flopping on Saturday and barely beating out Ness. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:56:13 AM | message detail |
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time to download firefox --- mmm test icicles |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/9/2008 11:56:47 AM | message detail |
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somebody needs to end themself --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:57:31 AM | message detail |
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I don't see any kind of flaw by saying he hasn't been viable for years.
Pokemon are the flavor of the week type of game, and with Mewtwo being
practically forgotten by Nintendo, and not doing anything new with him
for years, I'm sure the ADD fanbase doesn't care about him anymore
either. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2008 11:57:42 AM | message detail |
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dammit Nathan Drake is going up damn you PS3 freaks --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| The Real Truth | Posted 10/9/2008 11:58:40 AM | message detail |
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I wouldn't really brag about winning a contest/the guru. A large portion of the matches are complete luck. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2008 11:58:41 AM | message detail |
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Or I could look like a genius with him completly flopping on Saturday and barely beating out Pac-Man. >_> --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 63/84 Today's Match: Squall > Yoshi |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:58:45 AM | message detail |
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Nathan may crack 7% =(((( --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:59:06 AM | message detail |
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drake > tim --- mmm test icicles |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/9/2008 11:59:41 AM | message detail |
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I wouldn't really brag about winning a contest/the guru. A large portion of the matches are complete luck. You just destroyed the basic principles of this topic with one simple statement, dude. You get props. >_> --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 11:59:49 AM | message detail |
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charmander6000 (#038) Well actually I do have Mewtwo > Pac Man, but thats cuz I expect Mewtwo to sff Ness, since Ness' only support is from Smash really, and Mewtwo should take a good chunk of that since thats all people really know of him anymore. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| TestIcicles | Posted 10/9/2008 11:59:54 AM | message detail |
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I wouldn't really brag about winning a contest/the guru. A large portion of the matches are complete luck. were you born without the ability to comprehend or did you train to become like that --- mmm test icicles |
| Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/9/2008 12:00:43 PM | message detail |
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were you born without the ability to comprehend or did you train to become like that lol wut Someone missed the point --- The Straight Up G The WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| The Real Truth | Posted 10/9/2008 12:00:54 PM | message detail |
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My bad, I should've realized you were someones Alt. --- GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 12:03:27 PM | message detail |
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Oh and on a different note ASV is starting, and first ASV vote is this: Cats - 14.06% Nathan - 7.81% Squall - 49.61% Yoshi - 28.52% Uh oh yoshi --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 12:06:16 PM | message detail |
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Maybe I was a bit fast to jump the gun... CATS - 16.83% Nathan - 7.74% Squall - 37.33% Yoshi - 38.10% Is that Yoshis first cut? --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2008 12:08:19 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi cut? Let's start this comeback. >_> --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 63/84 Today's Match: Squall > Yoshi |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/9/2008 12:16:41 PM | message detail |
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17 vote cut by Yoshi kids love them some green lizards --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n4/tellie1218/Obama_for_President_550.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2008 12:17:27 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't really brag about winning a contest/the guru. A large portion of the matches are complete luck. 1) Lucky, perhaps, but he's getting lucky with educated guesses. That's why he was able to do as well as he did without ever taking L-Block to advance past the first round last year. 2) Didn't you just rub it in his face for not being ahead of you this contest when the first round's barely half-way over? If you're going to start that, he's going to finish that. That also opens other people who have won prizes or gurus to jump on you...and there's several in these topics that can claim that. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
