GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 590
| ffmasterjose | Posted 10/8/2008 4:43:28 AM | message detail |
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Oh my, what interesting color contrast in the match picture! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- 61/80 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Sora > Fox McCloud | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2008 4:44:23 AM | message detail |
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Squall time tomorrow! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/8/2008 4:45:01 AM | message detail |
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Wrong! CATS time tomorrow! --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 10/8/2008 4:48:51 AM | message detail |
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CATS = The original, actually funny joke entry. L-Block and all else are imitators. --- 61/80 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Sora > Fox McCloud | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/8/2008 11:57:24 AM | message detail |
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go squall get the emo votes --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| GameZACKS | Posted 10/8/2008 11:57:27 AM | message detail |
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tim --- LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 10/8/2008 11:59:52 AM | message detail |
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Original post lacks "Tim". --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. Meg and Fiona are the scum of the field. |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/8/2008 12:08:54 PM | message detail |
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Work is completed on the Most Popular Matches page! http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Most_Popular_Matches The problem I have with such statistics is that everything is in absolute terms. You don't take into account that the site itself gets more popular every year, ergo all these "records" are skewed towards the newer contests. Mario - Cloud 2k2 was less popular than Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko? Really? Of course if you're going to make up statistics and fun stuff this is what you start with. But what I, for example, would be much more interested in is vote totals adjusted for site popularity at the time. You could go about this by calculating the average vote total for a contest match for any given year (for example, 2k2 - 65,000) and see how much certain matches stray from this average (Cloud-Mario, in this case, would have a factor of "2", considering the 130,000 vote totals). You could compare matches from different contests by multiplying the vote totals by a certain amount. For example, 2k2 average = 70,000 votes, 2k8 average = 125,000 votes, for a match in 2k8 to be more popular than Mario/Link 2k2 would mean it would need 130,000 * (125,000/70,000) = 232,000 votes. I understand that this is a lot of work, but in my opinion it would make for a much more interesting (and honestly, realistic) "most popular matches" page. It's like people saying that the Dark Knight is breaking all the revenue records, whilst adjusted for inflation it was recently only #49th for most grossing movie of all time. --- 58/72. Today : Zero > Ryu. Tomorrow : Snake > Vivi Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2008 12:18:26 PM | message detail |
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Whoo popular matches whoo! Yes, this is just a listing of the all time highest vote totals, which really isn't fair for the older seasons since the site gets so much more traffic than it did in '05 and back. The problem will be remedied in three ways: - a listing of the Top 25 limited only to 1 vs 1 matches (this is already up!) - links to each individual season's Most Popular Matches page, so you can see what was on top against similar competition from the same year (these will be linked in once those pages get made) - popularity-adjusted rankings, which will factor in the overall increase in site popularity by judging each match against the average vote total for that season. I'm proud to say that consolefreak will be heading up this project and getting that adjusted Top 25 posted into the wiki soon! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| LordOfDabu | Posted 10/8/2008 12:22:11 PM | message detail |
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It's true that a direct comparison is probably misleading, but I think
if adjustments were to be made then it would be better to use standard
deviations than a direct linear ratio. --- SlayerS_`BoxeR`: that is many tank? SlayerS_`BoxeR`: yes? |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2008 12:25:51 PM | message detail |
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TimFAQs --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| vcharon | Posted 10/8/2008 12:37:37 PM | message detail |
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Can Tim make it under 6%? Come on little guy, shoot for the stars! --- :> |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2008 12:39:19 PM | message detail |
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UPDATE: consolefreak will be using standard deviations to create his adjusted rankings. Also if he needs any help with the project he's going to be getting in touch with Dabu. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/8/2008 12:39:41 PM | message detail |
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Which characters would advance from this fourpack? Mr Driller Tanner Tim Guybrush Threepwood. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/8/2008 12:39:47 PM | message detail |
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- popularity-adjusted rankings, which will factor in the overall
increase in site popularity by judging each match against the average
vote total for that season. I'm proud to say that consolefreak will be
heading up this project and getting that adjusted Top 25 posted into
the wiki soon! Heh, I was going to add to my post that it was just a suggestion and that I was not going to do it myself, and I'm not sure if you're joking or not, but whatever, I'll do it. Just to be clear, I was not dissing your work in any way, in fact I think you've done some great stuff. It was just some constructive criticism. It's true that a direct comparison is probably misleading, but I think if adjustments were to be made then it would be better to use standard deviations than a direct linear ratio. Calculating the standard deviations for all contests would be a hell of a lot of work though, and considering the simplicity and comparability of these datasets I don't see much wrong with a simple linear comparison. It's also explainable and people will understand what the top is about and how it came to be. Ngamer, I will send you the top 25 and the necessary numbers so you can keep it going to the gmail adress given in your account information. Don't expect it too soon though. --- 58/72. Today : Zero > Ryu. Tomorrow : Snake > Vivi Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/8/2008 12:42:01 PM | message detail |
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Seriously, standard deviations are mostly useful with data that has big
ranges. Considering the vote totals for any given year are pretty
comparable, standard deviations would make a very minor difference and
are really not necessary. These datasets are very monotonous. --- 58/72. Today : Zero > Ryu. Tomorrow : Snake > Vivi Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2008 12:47:47 PM | message detail |
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UPDATE: consolefreak and Dabu will be squaring off in a fight to the death this Friday night to determine whether standard deviations or a direct linear ratio
will be the method of choice when creating these adjusted popularity
rankings. The winner will mail me their Top 25 when they finish work on
it, which I will then add to the wiki along with an explanation of how
the rankings were determined. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 10/8/2008 12:49:11 PM | message detail |
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Zylo the wolf (#014) Which characters would advance from this fourpack? Mr Driller Tanner Tim Guybrush Threepwood. Guybrush and Tim. Absolutely no question. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| LordOfDabu | Posted 10/8/2008 12:50:19 PM | message detail |
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If someone already has a spreadsheet that contains the totals for each match, please e-mail (profile) it to me! --- SlayerS_`BoxeR`: that is many tank? SlayerS_`BoxeR`: yes? |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/8/2008 12:51:29 PM | message detail |
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Guybrush is fodder, but he's not epic level fodder. He can still get over 10% easily. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Steiner | Posted 10/8/2008 12:52:14 PM | message detail |
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<_< I love NGamer's "updates" on the situation --- "Dilemma. Having sworn fealty, must I spend my life in servitude to Applekidjosh?" http://thebrawl.net/signaturegenerator/mrgameandwatch/ikrb_Steiner_ |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2008 12:52:49 PM | message detail |
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I imagine Squall/Yoshi will have a similar gap tomorrow that Sora/Fox have right now. I'm glad you're so confident. For some reason, Yoshi scares me. I think it's because he thrives in this format. Logically, I shouldn't have much reason to worry. Squall went even with Sonic, and Yoshi lost handily to Mega Man twice (unless you want to give Yoshi some benefit of the doubt on LFF there), but I just can't shake it some uncomfortable feeling that something bad will happen tomorrow. Maybe I'm just being a cautious Squall fan. I hope so...Come on, NewSquareFAQs and Brawl De-Boost! And no one really seems to be getting the ASV yet. Fox and Sora seem to be canceling each other out. Pretty impressive for Mr. McCloud here if he can keep Sora from doing anything with this. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/8/2008 12:54:48 PM | message detail |
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UPDATE: consolefreak and Dabu will be squaring off in a fight to the
death this Friday night to determine whether standard deviations or a
direct linear ratio will be the method of choice when creating these
adjusted popularity rankings. The winner will mail me their Top 25 when
they finish work on it, which I will then add to the wiki along with an
explanation of how the rankings were determined. Heh. Dabu can do his and I'll do mine, I honestly think the top 25 will be exactly the same. In fact, I'm pretty sure it would be. I'm out for the night (lol europe) and I probably won't be catching up on this topic, so I'll leave by saying I'll give you the lineair top 25. If Dabu does not agree that this is a good idea, then you'll have 2 pages to update the wiki with :) Cheers --- 58/72. Today : Zero > Ryu. Tomorrow : Snake > Vivi Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/8/2008 12:56:17 PM | message detail |
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And for some reason, Chris Redfield isn't completely dying here.
He's...being stable. What sort of new breed of Resident Evil character
is this?! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2008 1:02:07 PM | message detail |
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What the everloving hell Leon Kennedy to get 60% on all these jokers --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/8/2008 1:04:02 PM | message detail |
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Tim vs Jade who ya got --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2008 1:38:58 PM | message detail |
| Damn you smart people and your maths |
| WhatTheDarn | Posted 10/8/2008 1:39:35 PM | message detail |
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Which match had the lowest votals? PokemonGSC / Xenogears? --- "War is no reason to end a friendship." - Solid Snake |
| vcharon | Posted 10/8/2008 1:39:52 PM | message detail |
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Guybrush crushes that group... and... and... Tanner! --- :> |
| hailEC | Posted 10/8/2008 1:45:58 PM | message detail |
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I don't think anyone should be all that confident in Squall > Yoshi
next round. I do think it's the most likely scenario however. Squall
> Yoshi in 1v1, and Squall and Yoshi are going to both be on the
right side of SFF. Unfortunately for Squall, I don't think Sora will be quite as easy to "steal" votes from as Fox for Yoshi. The only thing I'm pretty confident about is Fox finishing last. Yoshi > Squall wouldn't be that surprising, and even Squall > Sora wouldn't shock me too much. The only thing I know is Sora won't get first, and Fox is destined for last. --- all hail ec your lord and savior |
| Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2008 1:54:25 PM | message detail |
| Once again, Squall held up just fine against Sonic last year despite Sora being there. Yoshi coming first isn't out of the question, but everything is pointing to Squall there. We'll see how much he beats Yoshi by tomorrow for a better idea. |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 10/8/2008 2:25:48 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, unless Squall has lost a step or two this year (doubt it) I have no doubt that he advances in first place in Round 2. it'll be an SFF fest to end all SFF fests I say! --- 61/80 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Sora > Fox McCloud | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| ToadYoshi | Posted 10/8/2008 2:26:37 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi time tomorrow! --- Jinjo for Summer Contest 2008 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/8/2008 2:26:46 PM | message detail |
| October 14th... WoW will be down at least from 6
AM-6 PM for the release of a major content patch, 3.0.2, the Wrath of
the Lich King patch. This'll mean lots and lots of bored WoW players on
WoW sites and forums all day waiting for it to come up. Which means
bored people who will see the rallying Hogger topics on all the WoW
sites, and may even rally themselves since they have nothing better to
do. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 10/8/2008 2:28:20 PM | message detail |
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Ramza is so screwed --- 61/80 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Sora > Fox McCloud | http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=0 |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/8/2008 2:28:52 PM | message detail |
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UPDATE: consolefreak and Dabu will be squaring off in a fight to the
death this Friday night to determine whether standard deviations or a
direct linear ratio will be the method of choice when creating these
adjusted popularity rankings. yessssss Fox has a better day vote than Sora. hrm. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2008 2:42:33 PM | message detail |
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Work has completed on the Closest Matches page! http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Closest_Matches What a productive day this has been! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/8/2008 2:43:07 PM | message detail |
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While you're at it do write ups for round 1 matches :D --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| ZFS | Posted 10/8/2008 2:44:30 PM | message detail |
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Whoa Chris --- Kept you waiting, huh |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/8/2008 2:48:44 PM | message detail |
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Darn: Nay, Pokemon/Xenogears did have a horrible votal (only 69k)
thanks to people not realizing it was a fresh poll (it had to be run
two days in a row after a glitch ruined the results of day one), but
that was actually MORE than 5 other 2004 matches drew. The least
popular match of the Game Contest was the SFF fest between FFX and
FFTA. (Well actually it wasn't that much of an SFF-fest, we were
expecting TA to be bombed much harder, but in any case the vote totals
acted like it was one.) The least popular match of all time though would have to date from back to '02 and that was, let me see here... Max Payne over Dirk the Daring, which couldn't even manage to break 51k. Awful! --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/8/2008 2:51:29 PM | message detail |
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Frog/MC was 7 votes, not 3. --- CB7 Score: 62/80 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/8/2008 3:57:02 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-22.jpg --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/8/2008 3:57:19 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-22.jpg My Yoshi was picked! :D Overall great pics for everyone. Squall isn't too recognizable though. And CATS is low quality. --- Justin's CB Points: 68 | Points After this Round: 70 Today: Fox > Sora | Tomorrow: Squall > Yoshi |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/8/2008 3:57:39 PM | message detail |
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Squall got his Dissidia pic. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 10/8/2008 3:58:27 PM | message detail |
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I can't tell if that's mine. It may be Zen's, actually. He made a pretty similar one. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/8/2008 4:00:22 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-22.jpg --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/8/2008 4:01:40 PM | message detail |
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Fun fact: Nathan Drake is from same small development team as Crash Bandicoot and Jak. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| X_Dante_X | Posted 10/8/2008 4:01:53 PM | message detail |
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oh god tim at 6.66% we're angering the tie --- boring and mundane signature Now with more bold! Less italics due to bold. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2008 4:02:18 PM | message detail |
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I'd be worried more about Squall if I hadn't seen... well, pretty much every Ninty match this contest so far. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2008 4:03:37 PM | message detail |
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wtf is with CATS' letters. --- *is Dranze* Dedede/Pit/Ryu/Zero - Bracket: Zero > RyuH - Vote: Zero (53/64) |
