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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 589

ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:29:54 PM | message detail
No. What a terrible fad...

I'm voting Fox.
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Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/7/2008 5:30:53 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#249)
so Tim is getting the board vote, right?

RIGHT?


Tim won't perform well. I'm voting for Fox simply because Sora's pic endorses children smoking even though it's a popsicle.
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Justin's CB Points: 64 | Points After this Round: 68
Today: Snake > Vivi | Tomorrow: Fox > Sora
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 5:31:33 PM | message detail
Tim will get the board vote and not much else.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
trannyscience | Posted 10/7/2008 5:32:19 PM | message detail
Tim is no fad
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:33:55 PM | message detail
Thunderous Zen (8:33:00 PM): Does that look like a cigarette to you?
Friend (8:33:09 PM): i always thought it was grass
Thunderous Zen (8:33:16 PM): ...
Friend (8:33:22 PM): or wheat

>_>
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:36:45 PM | message detail
No, he's significantly stronger - Auron outdid Sora's percentage against Alucard signficantly more than Sora could do against Gordon Freeman. I'll say it again - Mega Man is very clearly the back end of the Noble Nine, and by a non-trivial margin. His paths have just been largely set in stone ever since 2k6.

I'm very happy to agree with this, partially because Auron has looked really good since 2006, and partially because I'll take virtually any argument that makes Crono look better. I still think there's a very large gap between Fox and Shadow though: 45% against any competition is not easy to get in this format, and 19% against Sephiroth while being LFF'd by 2 Nintendo characters is also quite impressive.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 58/76 --- T-395 (187 way)
Bracket: Snake > Vivi --- Vote: Vivi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 5:37:12 PM | message detail
Auron outdid Sora's percentage against Alucard signficantly more than Sora could do against Gordon Freeman.

For what it's worth, that isn't as bad now as it used to be. I mean, through Auron, Scorpion and Alucard aren't that far off, and Gordon was right there with Scorps.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:38:27 PM | message detail
Not to mention that Alucard isn't that far off of Captain Falcon >_>
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"Dreaming of one day flying, it practices by leaping off cliffs every day." ~Bagon's Pokedex entry
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2008 5:40:15 PM | message detail
I mean, through Auron, Scorpion and Alucard aren't that far off

Pre-KH2 Auron is not the same beast as post-KH2 Auron. Going from 45.9% on Ganondorf to 45.5% on Crono in the span of a year is no joke.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:41:07 PM | message detail
I know why Sackboy is losing now.

http://tinyurl.com/3odcx5

...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 5:45:06 PM | message detail
While I agree with you (and realized that point after I posted, I think), Alucard has fallen a lot to the point where, if Gordon DIDN'T put up 45% on him head-to-head (barring some weird anomaly), I'd be surprised.

I don't know why I'm even trying to argue against you! I agree that Auron is stronger than Sora! Still don't think Fox has much of a chance. Hard to say though, this will be his first year not involved with SFF since 2002. Cherish the moment 'cause it's only for this round.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:46:14 PM | message detail
Oh, and as highly as I think of Fox's strength, I don't expect him to actually beat Sora tomorrow- Sora should be close to Bowser/Yoshi/Luigi (he got 3% higher on Megaman than Bowser got on Crono), and I don't think Fox is quite on the level of those 3.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 58/76 --- T-395 (187 way)
Bracket: Snake > Vivi --- Vote: Vivi
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:48:21 PM | message detail
I win the contest.

Popsicle Sora got accepted.

Zen, permission to submit Viewtiful Dante if you haven't already?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:49:02 PM | message detail
I did.

>_>

Sorry.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:50:24 PM | message detail
Saight.

As long as it's on the front page, I'll love it.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:51:53 PM | message detail
Man, I should have let you submit it. I jumped the gun.

But congratz on Popsicle Sora! Who woulda thought it would work? >_>
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 5:53:08 PM | message detail
Welp, this pretty much confirms that Squall's going to get that awful Dissidia pic.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:53:20 PM | message detail
Oh nonononono

I never made one. Didn't even plan on it. >_>
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:54:52 PM | message detail
Then who did? Wasn't it you and I who discussed making it?

Also, Squall may get this because it's so damn cool:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/squall.png
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 5:55:38 PM | message detail
That pic is so cool it's almost guaranteed not to get chosen.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Biolizard28 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:55:50 PM | message detail
Wait, what....

I just posted a Viewtiful Dante pic and said "Make it happen" and you were like "okay"
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 5:58:02 PM | message detail
aren't we talking Popsicle Sora?
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/7/2008 5:59:32 PM | message detail
I don't think so. >_>

Anyway, if there's any kind of joke I'll back in these contests, it's joke pics. Next target is... we'll see....
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 6:01:26 PM | message detail
I'm almost rooting for Tim here.

oh god
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2008 6:04:57 PM | message detail
God that picture is terrible. Can't wait for the rest of this division though. Should be fun the whole way through!
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2008 6:24:10 PM | message detail
lol popsicle Sora

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 6:24:55 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/tifa_2.png

OH YES.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 6:47:09 PM | message detail
Tifa would beat Sephiroth with that pic.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/7/2008 7:00:50 PM | message detail
Tifas round 2 shouldnt be her face. it should be her boobs
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2008 7:55:27 PM | message detail
Match XXI: Chris Redfield vs. Fox McCloud vs. Sora vs. Tim

Information:

Name: Chris Redfield
Game/Series From: Resident Evil series
2007 Results: 4th in round 1

What surprised me the most about Chris is the fact that he lost to Pyramid Head. Was there some kind of survival LFF because I find it hard to believe that Chris is the weakest Resident Evil character, even weaker than Ada and Wesker. Hopefully this match will shed some light on this situation.

Name: Fox McCloud
Game/Series From: Star Fox series
2007 Results: 1st in round 1, 2nd in round 2, 4th in round 3

This is the first match since Cloud in 2002 that Fox is up against non-Nintendo opponents. We know Fox can easily beat lower tier Nintendo characters being probably the most used character in Melee, but what about stronger competition? Falco had a great first match and this will be Fox’s only chance to show his true strength since next round it is right back to Nintendo matches.

Name: Sora
Game/Series From: Kingdom Hearts series
2007 Results: 1st in round 1, 2nd in round 2, 3rd in round 3

Sora was trapped in a three-way Square match in round 2, but managed to beat Aeris for a spot and actually came close to Squall. Next round it seemed like a lot of Aeris’ support went to Squall causing Sora to look a lot worse than normal, though that probably was because Squall was there SFF him.

Name: Tim
Game/Series From: Braid
2007 Results: Did not enter

Tim is from the platform Braid and the game seems to play a lot like Super Mario Bros. except that the player can rewind time if a mistake is made or to use it to solve puzzles. That’s about as much as I know about the game, though I can safely say that if this game was released during the NES era and kept alive today Tim would be one of the strongest characters in the bracket.

Analysis:

While not an interesting match on paper this match could give us some insight about the next round where two Nintendo and two Square characters will have battle. Besides division six doesn’t start to get exciting until the second half.

Sora should come in first, last year he did great despite having several Square opponents. Sora doesn’t have anything else going for him which doesn’t bode well for him since he was a rematch against Squall and if Fox doesn’t drain Yoshi enough he could be seeing an early exit.

Fox hasn’t shown his true strength since Cloud of 2002. Before his crushing round 3 defeat at the hands of Mario we saw Fox score about 25% against Sephiroth though he had Wario and Meta Knight weighing him down. We’ve also seen the three characters that were in Fox’s first round match either met or surpass their expectations this round. Falco also did extremely well against Vincent as well. Brawl won’t be doing that much for Fox though without lugging LFF around we could see Fox approach Sora’s percent if he’s not careful.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2008 7:55:43 PM | message detail
I’m still wondering what happened to Chris’ strength last round. He may not have been in the most popular Resident Evils, but his lack of strength is surprising. He has been announced to be the main character of Resident Evil 5, though we know that hype usually does nothing for a character’s strength. While I don’t see him challenging Sora or Fox I won’t be surprised if he performs better than expected.

Tim could have been a strong character if his game was released, say 15 to 20 years ago. Braid doesn’t seem to be widely popular with GameFAQs and with the exception of a select few I don’t think many people even know the game he’s from. Tim also has a generic name; if it wasn’t for a small, but solid backing we might see a performance worthy of Neo-Tanner.

Sora and Fox will easily place and unless Fox is really strong and we just don’t know about it the match will probably end up being boring. This match is still however important to see if whether one or both have a chance against Yoshi and Squall next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sora > Fox

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sora – 38.36%, Fox – 32.27%, Chris – 18.36%, Tim – 11.01%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 55/76 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Vivi
ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 8:00:51 PM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/samus.png
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/7/2008 8:10:58 PM | message detail
Tim could have been a strong character if his game was released, say 15 to 20 years ago. Braid doesn’t seem to be widely popular with GameFAQs and with the exception of a select few I don’t think many people even know the game he’s from. Tim also has a generic name; if it wasn’t for a small, but solid backing we might see a performance worthy of Neo-Tanner.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEbE3fGfF-o
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2008 8:13:19 PM | message detail
???

My opinion hurts?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 55/76 Today's Match: Solid Snake > Vivi
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/7/2008 8:13:42 PM | message detail
OH NO YOU DIDN'T!
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2008 8:15:32 PM | message detail
Round 1

Division 6- Match 1

Chris Redfield


This guy lost to Pyramid Head. He won't be doing anything.

Fox

Holy crap, Fox finally gets a draw with no Nintendo characters

Sora

lol clown shoes

Tim

Oh great, more turbofodder.

Analysis:

Match 2 of our boring stretch, today will be interesting nonetheless, for the sole reason that we will FINALLY get a read on Fox's strength. I actually entertained the Fox upset here, but then I remembered Sora got 45% on Mega Man after KH2. Alas this gives us a very boring match, as even the battle for third is a one horse race. The other implication here is if Fox winds up giving Sora a run for his money, what does that mean for Yoshi/Squall in the next round? Very interesting from a stats point of view, but basically set in stone in terms of brackets.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Sora 38%, Fox 34%, Chris 17%, Tim 11%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Sora > Fox
TuRtLe's Vote: Fox
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/7/2008 8:23:04 PM | message detail
I have a feeling Fox is going to overperform like hell against Sora.

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[Multiple Scorgasms]
Score: 56/80 Today's Pick: Sora > Fox McCloud
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/7/2008 8:24:27 PM | message detail
i have a feeling tim is gonna beat fox
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Albion Hero
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 8:24:49 PM | message detail
timfaqs is almost here
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Moltar Status: augh
Chris/Fox/Sora/TIM - Bracket: Sora > Fox - Vote: TIM (61/80)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2008 8:25:39 PM | message detail
Tim would win if Braid music played on the homepage

so good

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Lopen | Posted 10/7/2008 8:26:42 PM | message detail
Soulja Boy almost made me vote Tim alone. If only Sora were replaced with someone less good from KH like Kairi or Roxas I'd be all over Tim here.

Fear the Soulja Boy boost.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/7/2008 8:28:12 PM | message detail
Turtle is saying Sora > Fox, so it's pretty much confirmed that Fox is going to win.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/7/2008 8:29:14 PM | message detail

XxSoulxX (#292)
Turtle is saying Sora > Fox, so it's pretty much confirmed that Fox is going to win.


I know, right?
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Justin's CB Points: 64 | Points After this Round: 68
Today: Snake > Vivi | Tomorrow: Fox > Sora
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 8:38:28 PM | message detail
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 21 – Chris Redfield vs. Fox McCloud vs. Sora vs. Tim

Moltar’s Analysis

Chris
Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil
2007 Results: 4th Place in Round 1 vs. Auron, Shadow and Pyramid Head

Judging from last year’s results, I’d say Chris would reeeeeeeeally like to have RE5 soon

Fox
Game/Series Known From: Star Fox
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. Wario, Capt. Falcon and Banjo
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Sephiroth, Meta Knight and Wario
4th Place in Round 3 vs. Sephiroth, Mario and Fox

Brawl Character #22, now with much less Nintendo in his groups

Sora
Game/Series Known From: Kingdom Hearts
2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. Lara, Wesker and Daxter
2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Squall, Aeris and Lara
3rd Place in Round 3 vs. Sonic, Squall and Sub-Zero

No one tell Sora who’s waiting for him next round…again.

Tim
Game/Series Known From: Braid
2007 Results: N/A

TIM got the SBF (soulja boy factor) believe

First place here has Sora’s name written all over it. We all know Sora is no slouch, as he had a tough path last year, with Squall holding him back, and was still able to beat Aeris and get to Round 3 without looking bad. Hell, Sora may be heading down that same path again, though his other opponent won’t be as easy as Aeris was…

Second place goes to Fox, and we should finally be able to get a decent read on him this time around. Last year, he crushed all Nintendo characters he faced not named ‘Mario’. This time, he has no other Nintendo characters to compete with here. He won’t be as strong as Sora, but he should end up looking very fine here. You know, in the “woah this match is kinda close but there’s just no way” way.

As for Chris and Tim, well, someone’s gotta come in 3rd and 4th. Chris, even though he lost to Pyramid Head last year (that’s still kind of crazy) should be able to hold his own. He’ll probably look even better here thanks to no horror SFF and a better pic.

Then again, if TIMFAQs is real then watch out link.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sora > Fox

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sora: 39% - Fox: 35% - Chris: 19% - Tim: 7%



TIM’s Analysis

hey man hm didn’t send no analysis so TIM is takin’ over and **** this nonsense my tie alone could beat these punks

i went in time and saw the result here’s the numbers

TIM Tells You: TIM: 45%, TIM’s tie: 30%, rewinding time: 15%, mario ripoff platformer: 10%



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Another easy match that doesn't require much of a write-up, which is good since I'm pressed for time. Taking center stage today are Chris Redfield (Resident Evil), Fox McCloud (Star Fox, Smash), Sora (Kingdom Hearts), and Time (Braid). Our winners are obvious. They are Sora and Fox, who have their opponents very easily outclassed. Board 8 sees Sora as the overwhelming favorite for first, but Fox has gained a bit of board buzz, especially after Ryu Hayabusa just upset Zero in what was also considered a pretty "safe" match. Can Fox burn us as Ryu did a couple days ago? It's certainly within the realm of possibility, but I feel Sora is still the "safe" (uh oh lol) favorite.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 8:38:44 PM | message detail
Fox has gotten an unfair shake at these contests, and it has led some to believe that he's concealing some very real strength. He doubled Pikachu years ago, disappeared for a long time, and came back last year to wipe some lesser Nintendo characters more impressively than anyone expected. His track record, whoever small, is pretty impressive, but it's still not convincing enough for me to take him over Sora. Fox's best contest results have all been riddled with SFF, and he'll find none to aid him here. Sora has been tested far more, and he's held his own in standard matches and, just last year, proved he had some pop in SFF matches (way to ruin my bracket further, Aeris). He has taken out Alucard handily, he humiliated Mega Man, and he avenged his loss against Aeris. I think that's just too much for Fox to handle, especially since we haven't seen what Fox can do in "normal" matches since 2002.

Sora wins, Fox in (a potentially very respectable) second place. The other two guys, Chris Redfield and Tim, are pretty helpless here. Tim is the star of an incredibly niche downloadable Xbox Live title, and he needed a rally to get here. Joke characters have flourished so far, yes, but Tim is just not of that breed, and I think he's going to get killed after the board vote. Chris Redfield, male protagonist of the Resident Evil series and not one of my favorite characters, had a terribly 2007. He finished in dead last, losing to Pyramid Head of all people. Sadly, I'm expecting a much better performance this year. He's got all the non-kiddy appeal to himself, his picture looks a lot cooler, and he may have a smidgen of RE5 hype to help bolster him. The bastard.

Chris Redfield - 19%
Fox McCloud - 34%
Sora - 39%
Tim - 8%



Lopen’s Analysis

Ha! Oh man. N dey got this match, right, for people who smoke, or people who drink, like if you drink beer and you get drunk or if you smoke weed and you get high. And you jus... or just anythin like you just be gettin ****** up. They got this match right, this **** kinda Braid... bout this little guy in a suit, and he walk around, and it ain't got no point to the match. You just walk round jumpin on ****. It look like Mario in the future. Whooooooop! Whoooooooooooop!

Yeap. If you didn't catch that... Mario in the Future wins this as noble nine mater--

Sorry, that's tranny's analysis. Uhhh... yeah. Sora is gonna probably own this pack. However, even in spite of Fox being Nintendo and Nintendo characters flopping left and right, I can't help but feel I made the wrong choice in this match. I mean, okay... Sora seems stronger by the stats and easily. But I can't help but think that Fox is going to win by merit of part of a similar argument that I used for Ryu Hayabusa the other day.

Sora thrives at lower percentages, with his fanbase being more devoted.. but Fox... Fox will own the crap out of the weak ass competition here and rule the casual vote. Sora SHOULD win this... he just did so much better than Fox last year I mean he almost beat Squall with Aeris around. Nintendo has been floppin, Square impressing. Augh. Stats + results of contest + original gut vs "a bad feeling." I guess I'll just stick with my bracket, but I don't like this one at all. Fox pickers (any of you other than Soul?) should feel good, as the last time I had feelings like this Altair stabbed Lucario in the brain. But not that good as I still think Sora should win, logically! (Logic in this contest ha)

Lopen's prediction:
Sora – 38.01%
Fox McCloud - 35%
Mario in the Future – 13.24%
Chris Redfield – 11.75%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 8:39:36 PM | message detail
Transience’s Analysis

Chris Redfield is a horse.

http://xmashykax.deviantart.com/art/RE-Ponies-Chris-Redfield-81871058

and a wolf.

http://airbornemk1.deviantart.com/art/Chris-Redfield-53417550

and, apparently, another wolf.

http://howlyourheartout.deviantart.com/art/SEXY-Chris-Redfield-Wolf-85104653

he also likes to wear a tutu.

http://lilmaris.deviantart.com/art/Chris-Redfield-in-a-tutu-O-o-93676293

and here's him getting his face sucked by Wesker:

http://tehshmexyramen.deviantart.com/art/Chris-and-Wesker-74236890

and... uh.. I don't even know what this one is.

http://snurkmaiden.deviantart.com/art/Chris-4-Crunk-86829317


now, on the flip side, we've got Tim. we've got awesome character design. we have killer animation. and, of course, we've got tie physics.

http://www.davidhellman.net/braid/tim-run-70pc.gif

we've got Tim showing his superior musical taste:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CByBMKiiHtA

Soulja Boy is a fan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nebKYFxXrLY

we've got a 92% on Gamerankings, awesome storytelling, atmospheric music, a beautiful setting, some fantastic plot twists and a game that everyone pretty much unanimously loves, a la Portal. Chris Redfield doesn't have any of this. we're talking about a guy whose very name redefines generic. we're talking about a guy that lost to Pyramid Head and is more notable for being in an upcoming game than any Resident Evil title he's been in so far. he's trash. not even Resident Evil fans like him.

he's no Tim. he doesn't have that fanbase. he's going to watch, helpless, as Tim amasses the most fanatical 7% GameFAQs has ever seen.

Chris Redfield, a horse
dude gets pleasured by Wesker
sunglasses at night

Tim, the god of time
hmm, sounds like someone else -- Link
time for a beatdown

tie physics vs gun
how can Tim lose? generic guy
won't win any votes

Fox, underrated
has been for years, but he's not
at Sora's level

all eyes are on Tim
it's time to rape some horses
TimFAQs starts tonight


Tim Tim Tim Tim Tim
Tim Tim Tim Tim Tim Tim Tim
Tim Tim Tim Tim Tim

transience's prediction: Sora with 47.73%, Fox with 42.57%, Tim with 9.49%, Chris Redfield with 0.21% (damn joke votes)



Ngamer’s Analysis

What a weird year... Remember when the Contest heavyweights used to use the first round to play a game of "how do you like me NOW!", matching blowout against even bigger blowout, constantly setting the bar higher for their next appearance? You know, like in '07. And '06. And every year before that. But this season we've seen Link, Mario, Mega Man, Vincent, Ganon, Samus, and now even Snake perform slightly below expectations. Of all of those, this Snake showing is the most surprising to me, just because he figured to have the most to gain over the past 12 months. ...actually no I take that back, Vincent allowing Falco to hang so close is still the most confusing result from a heavyweight to this point.

Speaking of that awesome showing from a member of Team Fox, who's ready to see another? Me! And my bracket!


Last Known Values
Sora - 25.52% (2007)
Fox - 23.93% (2007)
Chris - 15.14% (2007)
Tim - new
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 8:39:58 PM | message detail
I picked against the Guru cookie cutter in a total of 16 of this year's 63 matches- a decent number of upsets, at least by my standards, and now the one I felt least comfortable with has arrived: Fox > Sora. I've always had a strong dislike for ol' clown shoes and Fox has become a favorite of mine thanks to his considerable potential that always gets hidden behind SFF, so when I saw a chance for him to finally perform at peak strength my gut reaction was to jump at it and take Fox for the win in my Initial Impressions topic. I took plenty of heat for that decision, which only made me more stubborn and forced me to stick with the silly pick right on through lockdown. But you know what, looking at it now, I'm glad I did! Yes Brawl newcomers have disappointed for the most part, but Fox is a mainstay of the series, Star Fox 64 has done great on the Virtual Console this year, and if being the only Melee/Nintendo option allowed Falcon to snatch up that many votes against a guy with legit NN-smashing potential like Vincent, I see no reason why Fox couldn't knocked out someone a good deal lower on the Square totem pole.

Plus, check out this picture! Not only does Fox dominate everyone and get another super-cool pose like R1 last time, Sora gets stuck with his back to the fans, puffing away on that Virginia Slim! For those who say it won't matter, have you forgotten that the victim of (arguably) the biggest pic factor underperformance in history was... Sora himself? Now some others are saying that Chris will do well with this pic, but again I'm not buying it. Sure it's an improvement on that goofy look from last year, but in my experience realistic-style pictures fail to draw the eye away from bright colorful foxes with their arms crossed in a no-nonsense expressions nearly 87% of the time. And Tim, well... he DOES look pretty good, but this is one of those cases where he'd probably have performed better if he looked more like a joke- as vocal as the Braid fanbase is, small numbers like that can only take you so far.

In summary, the KH ASV figures to be as deadly as always, but if there's one thing that can stand up to it (well aside from Halo) it would have to be SSB Melee. I think Fox will be able to get a large enough lead overnight and during the school that he'll be able to limit the afternoon damage and take this one home with a close finish decided by the second night vote. Whooo Fox!

Fox McCloud - 33.94%
Sora - 33.83%
Chris Redfield - 21.01%
Tim - 11.22%

Feelin' confident!

Ngamer Says: Fox > Sora



Guest’s Analysis - Soul


Past Stats:
Chris sucks.
Fox lost to Clinkeroth and Mario, but beats Falcon, Wario, Meta Knight, Banjo, Pikachu.
Sora lost to Squall and Sonic, Mega Man, Snake, Samus, Aeris, but beats Gordon Freeman, Tingle, Alucard, Agent 47, Ryu Hayabusa, HK-47.
Tim is new.

Going to make this short but sweet. Chris sucks in these things, but will finish in third. Never played Braid, but the game should be great and so should Tim. He will finish in last place though. The real match here is between Fox and Sora.

We know how strong Sora is. It is pretty much agreed upon that he is in the top 20. His only bad loss was to Aeris all the way in 2003, and that was before he actually became well known. Since that time, he beat good competitors like Gordon, Alucard, and Ryu Hayabusa easily.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 8:40:51 PM | message detail
The big question here is how well Fox compares to him. Fox has a pretty big range from about Gordon Freeman (his floor) to even higher then Yoshi. Even though he's been in three contests now, he always gets stuck behind Nintendo or Clinkerothio. No matter where he goes. His first contest, he lost to Cloud in the first round. In 03, he beat Pikachu easily, but ran into Link next round. He didn't get back in until last contest, where he went on to SFF five Nintendo characters (Wario twice, Meta Knight, Captain Falcon, Banjo), before he went head first into Sephiroth and Mario.

My prediction is that Fox wins this match. My reasoning? Because I'm a Fox fanboy, so I'll look for any possible way for him to win. So basically, take all this with a grain of salt.

- Fox was one of the few characters last year to get over 40% in his match. Yes, he was fighting three Nintendo characters, but it was still a great performance by him.
- After SFFing Falcon last year, Falcon went on this year to prove how strong he actually was.
- No Nintendo here so Fox should prove his worth.
- Fox has always been very popular in the Smash Bros universe. Brawl characters have been performing horrible, but the strong Melee characters have been impressing. Fox, being the strongest, should perform very well as well.
- Falco heavily impressed in his match with Vincent, and Fox should be much stronger then Falco.
- Sora hasn't had a game for a long time, and it looks as though that big Kingdom Hearts 3 announcement won't come for a while.

Yes, it's an upset, but I'm going with it. My gut is telling me to do it, and so far, when it comes to upsets, my gut has been right (Marth > Duke, Ryu > Zero, Pikachu > Arthas). So there we go. Go Fox Go!

Chris - 10.00%
Fox - 43.00%
Sora - 41.50%
Tim - 5.50%



Crew Consensus: Sora > Fox, but Ngamer and Soul are going for the Fox > Sora upset
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2008 8:40:56 PM | message detail
tranny mined the infernal depths of deviantart for his analysis. How can you not vote for Tim now?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/7/2008 8:41:08 PM | message detail
you are all underestimating tim. wait till he gets 35%
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