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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 589

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 10:33:07 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#050)
And I don't understand the Jinjo fear. Jinjo is a dead LUE fad.... he has nothing to draw strength from. He's as much a joke character as Jade and Luke are.



I've seen him used on many boards outside of just gamefaqs. I don't think he'll do much, but he's more then just LUE.
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Albion Hero
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Panthera | Posted 10/6/2008 10:37:43 PM | message detail
Brawl hasn't hurt Nintendo - not at all. it's helped it, of course. the problem is the absolute lack of Wii titles worth a damn, stopping Nintendo fans from coming to this site. most voters are xbox fans at this point. I expect PS3 to beat out Wii come January as well, or at least make it close. that is what's slowing Nintendo down, not Brawl.

I don't know if it's even that fewer Nintendo fans are coming than they used to, as much as it is that there's more and more fans of the other consoles these days since the PS3 and 360 have become so much more widely owned and liked on this site, that the competition is "catching up" in a sense. Of course, that still doesn't explain how Snake is not even doubling Vivi when an increase in PS3 and 360 owners should mean an increase in MGS fans coming here.
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A season of our stolen youth shall teach old hearts to break
~Primordial-The Coffin Ships
Panthera | Posted 10/6/2008 10:39:50 PM | message detail
And I don't understand the Jinjo fear. Jinjo is a dead LUE fad.... he has nothing to draw strength from. He's as much a joke character as Jade and Luke are.

I still see Jinjo and Jinjo parodies on LUE, and particularly on CE. Every social board ASCII topic has him pop up at least once. I doubt he'll be Block or Cube level, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him look better than bottom of the barrel fodder.
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A season of our stolen youth shall teach old hearts to break
~Primordial-The Coffin Ships
ZFS | Posted 10/6/2008 10:50:46 PM | message detail
snake what are you doing

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Kept you waiting, huh
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/6/2008 11:43:05 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2333

Jinjo doesn't have a chance.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
Lopen | Posted 10/7/2008 12:04:02 AM | message detail
So how bout that MC outdoing Snake idea.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
MasaHikoTron | Posted 10/7/2008 12:08:07 AM | message detail
albion how's my score
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
vcharon | Posted 10/7/2008 1:35:58 AM | message detail
I just finally noticed I did in fact pick Ryu > Zero...
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:>
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 1:38:48 AM | message detail
61 since you had Ryu > Zero
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Albion Hero
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/7/2008 3:13:52 AM | message detail
Vivi holding up pretty well.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
transience | Posted 10/7/2008 3:36:51 AM | message detail
looks like Sackboy's going even with Wesker in the morning. I wonder if we can get an awesome embarrassment comeback.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Guess how many teens | Posted 10/7/2008 3:44:20 AM | message detail
Why people say Snake is doing bad?

Only Link, Samus and Mega Man were able to get 50%+ so far and all of them were up against less competition.
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[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ -Red |||||||||||||| -Green ]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]] -Blue
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/7/2008 3:45:40 AM | message detail
Snake should be fine well about 53% come ASV.
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Ride Him.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2008 4:38:32 AM | message detail
Yep, Snake is winning the day vote, though Vivi's doing fine too.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 4:40:39 AM | message detail
lol sackboyfear
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/7/2008 4:44:51 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=938583&topic=45835972

XFD

"How is he losing to Vivi?!"
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 4:59:36 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | DeDeDe | Pit | Hayabusa | Zero
PHV | 15.30% | 14.19% | 34.15% | 36.36% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 13.01% | 13.47% | 35.96% | 37.56% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 14.16% | 15.44% | 36.30% | 34.09% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 12.88% | 14.34% | 37.98% | 34.81% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 13.51% | 15.27% | 36.52% | 34.69% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 11.60% | 14.26% | 36.91% | 37.22% | (22:00-24:00)

Zero with good night votes, not so good day votes. Hayabusa did really well for himself outside of the Power Hour. His during school vote was actually better than his ASV. DeDeDe has a good Power Hour (relatively) compared to everything else. Pit's a day vote guy, to the surprise of none. And it's surprising how Hayabusa can beat Zero straight up and people can still say that Zero is the "clear" favorite to beat him next round. I wouldn't be so quick to assume Zero/DeDeDe/Pit LFF here.

But it might not matter with how well Vivi is doing here. Snake isn't really doing that badly, in my opinion. Vivi is just doing really well. ...And he's getting a morning vote. What's going on here? Well, I guess out of all of these, he'd probably have the best day vote, though Zidane's is bad. I'm not really sure what to make of this performance. Vivi in the third round with a classic Black Mage in-game shot sounds like an overperformance waiting to happen to me, though it won't really make a difference.

Snake has nothing to fear from Mega Man though. I don't really care what anyone says. 50% against three other characters is hard, no matter who it is, especially when you've actually got another character in the poll people care about. Either way, this has been a pretty static match, trend-wise.

Also, LOL Wesker, and the reason everyone was saying Sackboy could get joke votes was because of the name and design, which would appeal to joke voters who don't know what LittleBigPlanet is.

Yesterday's stats:

Ryu Hayabusa – 50.00%
Zero – 49.24%
Pit – 28.58%
King DeDeDe – 26.85%
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Ultimaphazon | Posted 10/7/2008 5:08:28 AM | message detail
I'm really liking my Snake > Vivi upset for round 2 after seeing this.
Too bad my bracket is just waiting to get killed by all the L-Blocks and WCCs of the contest.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
greatone10 | Posted 10/7/2008 6:26:57 AM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#032)
If the match is Mega Man/WCC/Snake/Hayabusa, I can't see Mega Man NOT winning at this rate. Then all you "Mega Man dropped" fools will finally get a taste of BT style justice, despite it being 2 years late.



Even if this does happen, it will be a tainted victory at best. Keep in mind it will likely be 8-bit Mega Man vs. Solid Sprite in that match.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 6:26:59 AM | message detail
Too bad my bracket is just waiting to get killed by all the L-Blocks and WCCs of the contest.

Yep, my bracket died the moment L-Block won.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Lopen | Posted 10/7/2008 7:05:34 AM | message detail
Hahaha Vivi. Where's that Snake day vote power I've heard about. Looks like it's all Vivi.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/7/2008 7:29:33 AM | message detail
Augh Vivi stop going up, you're making my not-so-good prediction look even worse
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Today's prediction: Snake 52.76% - Vivi 22.18% - Wesker 15.21% - Sack 9.85%
Status: Meh
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2008 7:38:22 AM | message detail
Geez, Vivi is on a tear. Vivi's holding up very well from last year's 30% in Round 1

As others have said, Snake isn't really doing anything bad, just Vivi is impressing.
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Moltar Status: augh
Wesker/Sackboy/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Vivi - Vote: Snake (57/76)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2008 8:43:03 AM | message detail
Vivi is impressing BECAUSE Snake is doing so bad. The man who threw down Ulti-style destruction on Sonic and Mega Man should be over 55% at least.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2008 9:12:39 AM | message detail
Wesker should get 28.54%/21.56% on Vivi/Solid in 2k5 and 37.36%/19.32% on Vivi/Solid last year. I forget how to extrapolate them the best way from four-ways, but the quick calculations says Wesker gets 32.71%/20.13% on Vivi/Solid right now. Likewise, Vivi was expected to get 40.92% in 2k4, 36.87% in 2k5, 25.86% last year, and 34.17% right now on Solid...

...does that mean anything here? It looks like if it wasn't for Tidus last year, Solid would be beating Vivi worse than ever before. Wesker looks like he's kept up in some ways, but I suspect the second half of this match will kill Wesker in relation to Solid.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 9:50:10 AM | message detail
god snake stop sucking
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/7/2008 9:52:09 AM | message detail
Vivi is impressing BECAUSE Snake is doing so bad. The man who threw down Ulti-style destruction on Sonic and Mega Man should be over 55% at least.

No Noble 9er has impressed yet, and it's fair to say that most put up disappointing percentages. Snake wasn't going to hit 55% when Samus couldn't even come close against a weaker trio.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
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satai_delenn | Posted 10/7/2008 10:02:35 AM | message detail
Woo Vivi! Go go go!

So looking both at the NNers who have already had matches and the random FF boosts that have been going on, how high do we think Cloud can go in his round 1 match? I mean, if Zack could pull almost 45% with Cecil in the poll, can Cloud hit 55%? 60%? Axel Steel/Midna/Miles Edgeworth vs. Wario/Cecil/Jade...they look like they could be vaguely comparable in average strength taken as groups, and Cloud won't have another FF character there to leech votes.
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 10:04:18 AM | message detail
I'd be shocked if Cloud didnt get 60%... but then again I thoguht Snake would get 60% against this crap competition and has bombed
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Albion Hero
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/7/2008 10:15:46 AM | message detail
So...what are we expecting from tomorrow? Sora/Fox should be closer than Vincent/Falco, and I would take GlaDOS > Chris and Wander > Tim. Anything else missing from that analysis?
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Lobby Hero
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 10:17:12 AM | message detail
Honestly I think TIm > Wander. Wander is a total unknown who doesnt even look anything special, and Braid was a pretty popular brand new game, so I think he'd get more support then Wander.
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Albion Hero
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/7/2008 10:28:18 AM | message detail
I want to agree with you...but if people are thinking Mega Man dropped or went even despite MM9 hitting, selling well, and being received nicely on every system, then I doubt even Soulja Boy can save Tim from losing to Wander. There's also this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3207
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2247

~17.5% thinking buying Braid could be worth $15 bucks VS ~16% thinking the $40-SotC was the PS2-GotY in 2005. Games =/= characters and those were different years and kinds of polls, I know, but the odds are still in Wander's favor from that perspective.

Just saying, I'd take Wander > Tim until further notice.
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Lobby Hero
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 10:29:40 AM | message detail
Wander didn't even get a name till the SotC credits apparently, and his pic was hard to recognize him.
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Albion Hero
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/7/2008 10:34:49 AM | message detail
Right...and Tim is from Braid.

Suddenly, they're on equal ground again.
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Lobby Hero
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H__RR____H | Posted 10/7/2008 10:38:03 AM | message detail
More seriously, I understand being skeptical of Wander -- I certainly am, believe it or not -- but after MM9 failing to do anything for Mega Man and Tim almost solely being nominated for being a joke (though I enjoyed his demo), then seeing so few people thinking his game would be worth $15 when most games cost $50...I mean, the odds aren't favorable to him.

Wander/Tim is the new hot-topic. Oh God.
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Lobby Hero
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/7/2008 10:39:04 AM | message detail
Tim
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 10:40:59 AM | message detail
Tim is not a joke. He's as much of a joke as other recent main characters of games.
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Albion Hero
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2008 10:42:39 AM | message detail
Unless Axel is unexpectedly strong, Cloud's fourpack is quite a bit weaker than Link's, so he should be able to break 60% easily. He got 61% with Jill and Ocelot, either one of which could probably beat Midna, and 56% with Marcus/Ocelot/Kefka.

And Snake's doing fine here, just like Link, Mario, and Samus did fine. (Note that I'm not sold on Crono/Vincent/Mega doing well.) Having a midcarder like Vivi makes it difficult for non-Clinkeroth types to get much higher than 50%.
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Mustache...and green...
H__RR____H | Posted 10/7/2008 10:44:47 AM | message detail
I agree he's not a joke character. I'm saying he was largely nominated out of the humor of seeing him in a contest. He's not a joke in the way L-Block, WCC, or potentially Sandbag are -- jokes that draw interest because of how unorthodox they are. Instead, he was nominated for similar reasons that Jay Solano was -- characters that Board 8 thinks would be funny to see flop. His game may be good, but how many people are going to know it by tomorrow? That's why he got so many nominations.
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Lobby Hero
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 10:46:14 AM | message detail
People didn't nominate him to see him flop... People nominated him cuz he's from a great new game and cool character. At least thats why I nommed him.
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Albion Hero
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hailEC | Posted 10/7/2008 10:50:49 AM | message detail
it is universally agreed on that Snake is stronger than Samus at this point though.

Get this filth out of here. It should be universally agreed on that Samus is stronger than Seph. I've been waiting to take that upset for like 4 years now.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/7/2008 10:52:41 AM | message detail
Snake should be doing what Clinkeroth can do according to my expectations though. Snake has EVERYTHING goin for him. Brawl, MGS4... this was his year to shine and for it to be Link > Snake, but he's just flopping.
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Albion Hero
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2008 10:54:43 AM | message detail
If you expected Snake to be on par with Clinkeroth, then disappointment was always very likely. It's not that easy to reach those kinds of heights.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 58/76 --- T-395 (187 way)
Bracket: Snake > Vivi --- Vote: Vivi
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/7/2008 11:21:49 AM | message detail
^Especially in a four-way poll.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 11:26:14 AM | message detail
Of course Snake's going to fail to live up to your expectations when you're expecting him to be able to beat Cloud this year. Start small. Seriously. It's not easy to beat Cloud. Cloud got as much last year against Ocelot, Kefka, and Marcus Fenix as Snake did against Rayman, Nightmare, and Vyse. There's absolutely no way MGS4 and Brawl were going to close that gap.

Snake's doing just fine, as long as you have reasonable expectations.

And if Cloud doesn't score the biggest blowout of the contest, I'll be shocked. He's got just the right fourpack to get something like 65% or so.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/7/2008 11:27:44 AM | message detail
I'd still take Samus over Snake, but just barely. I'll give Snake a boost, but it won't blast him up to those levels.
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Good Times,
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 11:30:09 AM | message detail
By the way, it should be noted that Wesker's performance makes Lara Croft look really pathetic. This is the guy who actually led her for a little while last year?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 11:34:15 AM | message detail
And something inside me has me curious if Vivi isn't overperforming somehow. Not for any particular reason, just a hunch. I'm thinking something along the lines of Vivi doing better than he should just due to how pathetic the other two options are doing. Not that I wouldn't love to see Vivi beat Zero and Hayabusa next round.

Wait, why am I justifying anything?! This is more NewSquareFAQs evidence!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2008 11:36:16 AM | message detail
I'd still take Samus over Snake, but just barely. I'll give Snake a boost, but it won't blast him up to those levels.

Then you're foolish. If you give Snake any kind of a boost, Samus shouldn't even be in the cards. We're not talking about Sephy or Mario here.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/7/2008 11:38:49 AM | message detail
And man, this match is about as boring to watch as Samus's, as far as percentage shifts go. The only thing that makes this match better is that it actually has good characters in it.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
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