GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 589
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/6/2008 9:43:57 PM | message detail |
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FFIX doing well? About time! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:44:18 PM | message detail |
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good 500 post imo --- CB7 Score: 58/76 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/6/2008 9:44:48 PM | message detail |
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Continued from the last topic: Even if Brawl really is deboosting some characters, Snake still has MGS4. He really has absolutely no reason to drop. I'm going to keep believing this is Vivi kicking butt unless he loses comfortably next round. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 9:46:01 PM | message detail |
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I'm starting to worry if MWC may be right... --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/6/2008 9:46:30 PM | message detail |
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Vivi went up! Woo! Snake went down? Bah. Why must these updates conflict me? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| vcharon | Posted 10/6/2008 9:46:39 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Snake is doing bad at all... considering the format, this
looks perfectly expected to me. Vivi may be overperforming a hair at
the moment. --- :> |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:47:24 PM | message detail |
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whoa, Snake just died at the expense of Vivi. go Vivi. I'm thinking that Liquid match was more Luigi than Liquid, cause this seems a bit underwhelming. well, it's the same as last year which is no crime, but after Liquid I expected more. must be the BRAWL DE-BOOST --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:47:30 PM | message detail |
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Go VIVI! WOO Look better against Snake than you did against Zelda that time! --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 10/6/2008 9:48:12 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Snake is doing bad at all I don't know, because Snake's percentage is dropping hard. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2008 9:48:53 PM | message detail |
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Even if Brawl really is deboosting some characters, Snake still has MGS4. To play Devil's Advocate for a theory I don't really put stock into - it's still very theoretically possible that loss of Smash power is more than compensating negatively from any positive upside from MGS4 (and remember it's a lot harder to get traditionally stronger from normal games when you're as strong as Snake). Remember, Snake's base before SSBB/MGS4 was about 43% on Mario. clearly what we need is that 360 MGS4 port holdout --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:49:34 PM | message detail |
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TGS announcement let's do this --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:49:38 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Snake is doing just fine here. It's very hard to get 50% in this
format: Samus only got 52% with considerably weaker competition, and
Crono only put up 49% with way easier opponents. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 58/76 --- T-395 (187 way) Bracket: Snake > Vivi --- Vote: Vivi |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/6/2008 9:50:17 PM | message detail |
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Snake's not doing bad but VIvi is amazing me. --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 9:50:30 PM | message detail |
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over/under on # of disks needed is 4 --- Moltar Status: augh Wesker/Sackboy/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Vivi - Vote: Snake (57/76) |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:50:49 PM | message detail |
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it is universally agreed on that Snake is stronger than Samus at this point though. Samus's competition wasn't even that much worse. Crash > Wesker, probably, and uhh who was the other guy, whoever he was probably wasn't much worse than Sackboy. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:51:30 PM | message detail |
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Samus's competition wasn't even that much worse. Crash > Wesker,
probably, and uhh who was the other guy, whoever he was probably wasn't
much worse than Sackboy. Raz... --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 9:51:31 PM | message detail |
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Snakes under 50% wheres that night vote huh --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:51:56 PM | message detail |
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snake is done only raiden can save us now --- CB7 Score: 58/76 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 9:52:15 PM | message detail |
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traded it for a super KH-like day vote (believe) --- Moltar Status: augh Wesker/Sackboy/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Vivi - Vote: Snake (57/76) |
| vcharon | Posted 10/6/2008 9:52:41 PM | message detail |
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Keep in mind a lot of people may not vote for Snake "because he will
win anyway". I myself voted for Vivi even though I prefer Snake, just
because I wanted to ensure Vivi was in second (I didn't look at the
votals, har). --- :> |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:52:55 PM | message detail |
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well, as many people have played Raz's game as Sackboy's I may or may not be joking here --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:53:48 PM | message detail |
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Did charon just vote for a FF9 character. Well I never thought I'd see the day. --- CB7 Score: 58/76 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2008 9:54:40 PM | message detail |
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Heh, if L weren't on track to win the contest I'd be considering a lot
of interesting upset potential Cloud could have over Link. Of course he
shouldn't be able to make that match competitive naturally, but coupled
with the Brawl deflux I would definitely think he has a shot if
anything resembling Nintendo makes it into that final match. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:54:46 PM | message detail |
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So right now Sackboy's got like 10% or whatever without even having a game Next year he's a total noble nine-breaker, halo-killer type, right? --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:55:09 PM | message detail |
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Universally agreed upon? Samus beat Sephiroth with Link and Cloud in the poll. So did Snake, but Link should hurt Samus much more than Snake. Further, if Snake already got his entire Brawl boost in 2006, and the boost from the game coming out doesn't exist, then, well, Samus beat him directly in 2006. I don't think it's clear who is stronger at this point. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 58/76 --- T-395 (187 way) Bracket: Snake > Vivi --- Vote: Vivi |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:56:15 PM | message detail |
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L > Link woo I've considered this actually. Cloud/Link/Sandbag(WCC)/L let's do this serious match vs. dumb match yay! --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:56:28 PM | message detail |
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err L > Cloud I mean --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 9:56:39 PM | message detail |
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vcharon (#020) This can be attributed to all noble 9ers in the first match. So I don't see why it would effect Snake any more then others. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2008 9:56:51 PM | message detail |
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So, Snake loses his Brawl powers, putting him back to 2k5 levels, but
gains a bit from MGS4 putting him right at Mega Man's level. Intriguing. Snake (2005c) VS Vivi (2005c) Snake has a strength of 36.97. Vivi has a strength of 27.26. Snake wins with 63.13% of the vote! A win of 27,371 with 104,213 total votes cast. And right now Vivi has 34% of the Snake/Vivi votes. Hmmmm |
| vcharon | Posted 10/6/2008 9:57:34 PM | message detail |
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From: KleenexTissue50 | Posted: 10/7/2008 12:53:48 AM | Message Detail Did charon just vote for a FF9 character. I voted for Zidane (against my bracket) to. >_> --- :> |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2008 9:58:07 PM | message detail |
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snake is not losing to mega man oh my lord --- CB7 Score: 58/76 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2008 9:59:40 PM | message detail |
| If the match is Mega Man/WCC/Snake/Hayabusa, I can't see Mega Man NOT winning at this rate. Then all you "Mega Man dropped" fools will finally get a taste of BT style justice, despite it being 2 years late. |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 9:59:43 PM | message detail |
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don't worry, he doesn't actually believe it either. Snake's only got one thing to worry about - the Cube. everything else is pretty much predetermined. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| vcharon | Posted 10/6/2008 10:00:25 PM | message detail |
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What is wrong with you people? This can be attributed to all noble 9ers in the first match. So I don't see why it would effect Snake any more then others. Um... okay? It isn't affecting Snake anymore than others? Hi there Mario and Crono percentage that was lower than this. Mario looked pretty awful. I never said it was affecting Snake any MORE than any other noble nine member. --- :> |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2008 10:00:30 PM | message detail |
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fanboy warz i'm outta here (go snake) --- Moltar Status: augh Wesker/Sackboy/Snake/Vivi - Bracket: Snake > Vivi - Vote: Snake (57/76) |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2008 10:00:38 PM | message detail |
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Keep in mind a lot of people may not vote for Snake "because he will
win anyway". I myself voted for Vivi even though I prefer Snake, just
because I wanted to ensure Vivi was in second (I didn't look at the
votals, har). Every obvious favorite (ie every NNer) has to deal with this, though. Samus beat Sephiroth with Link and Cloud in the poll. So did Snake, but Link should hurt Samus much more than Snake. Further, if Snake already got his entire Brawl boost in 2006, and the boost from the game coming out doesn't exist, then, well, Samus beat him directly in 2006. I don't think it's clear who is stronger at this point. Here's where you go wrong: Cloud hurt Sephiroth a TON more in 2007 than he did in 2006. This is partially of course a natural part of the matches themselves - Samus/Sephy was a pointless battle for third, Snake/Seph was to move on to the next round. Let's not forget that Link's probably never been as roided as he was in 2006. It's not that Snake got his entire Brawl boost in 2006, either. It's that despite him getting more relative to the other characters since its release, the game's stock itself has fallen. This is how you end up with things like Liquid getting so close to Luigi. In short - Snake's stronger relative to Samus, both are relatively weaker. I'm confident as hell that Snake wipes her in a rematch. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Lopen | Posted 10/6/2008 10:00:48 PM | message detail |
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Raiden will break this percentage Snake has in his R1 match. --- Raiden's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Master Chief/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. WE'VE MANAGED TO AVOID DROWNING. Believe |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2008 10:01:18 PM | message detail |
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If SSBB's release caused less Nintendo people to come here, it improves
the ratio of people PS3 and 360 fans have here. Throw in that MGS4 came
out after that and Solid stars in the top two games of the year, and
there's no way Solid shouldn't boost anyway. If SSBB's release-deboost
is a myth, Solid should really be taking advantage of that while still
benefiting from MGS4 and the much-increased PS3-ownership. Either way, I will not consider Solid under-performing until we get several more matches. Sackboy's no fair character to judge, Wesker is known to be terrible, and Vivi's odd to judge since Zidane impressed and it's FF/MGS right now. Also, Link/Mario/MMX/Samus/Vincent/Crono/Mega Man have all under-performed or at least not completely met expectations...and L-Block failed to be anywhere close to what he did last year. I'm fine with what Solid's doing right now. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 10:01:44 PM | message detail |
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vcharon (#034) Mario was with Zelda and Knux. He has reason for being 40%. --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2008 10:01:56 PM | message detail |
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nice sig lopen --- CB7 Score: 58/76 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg || http://64.81.113.250/a-kon-12/000177.jpg |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 10:02:09 PM | message detail |
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Lopen (#037) Aren't you the MC fanboy? --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| __hiei__ | Posted 10/6/2008 10:02:56 PM | message detail |
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Snake's opponents here are not much better than Crono's or Megaman's at all. >_> there's a midcarder and two bottom of the barrel fodder. |
| Lopen | Posted 10/6/2008 10:04:26 PM | message detail |
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You know it, Kleenex. And of course I'm a Master Chief fanboy. --- Master Chief's and Raiden's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Kain/Other Dude. Target: 93%. I NEED GAME FUELS, 61! Believe |
| transience | Posted 10/6/2008 10:04:29 PM | message detail |
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okay, I thought we were all in agreement that we were joking about the BRAWL DEBOOST so let me clear it up. Brawl hasn't hurt Nintendo - not at all. it's helped it, of course. the problem is the absolute lack of Wii titles worth a damn, stopping Nintendo fans from coming to this site. most voters are xbox fans at this point. I expect PS3 to beat out Wii come January as well, or at least make it close. that is what's slowing Nintendo down, not Brawl. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2008 10:06:05 PM | message detail |
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there's a midcarder and two bottom of the barrel fodder. And the two pieces of fodder are fighting for their lives to stay over 10%. Vivi is just killing Snake right now, so this needs to be judged on what you think of the mage. I personally tend toward viewing him on the weaker side of what others estimate him at (though I guess him nearly beating Pika with Tidus in the poll was pretty good in retrospect). --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2008 10:08:03 PM | message detail |
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Okay what's up night vote kay time to go to bed with self-assurance man if Obama gets this percent come election day I'm gonna kill myself --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| vcharon | Posted 10/6/2008 10:10:48 PM | message detail |
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Snake percentage going back on. You guys can stop thinking he'll ever job to MM again now. --- :> |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2008 10:15:00 PM | message detail |
| I think it has more to do with how Nintendo is treating its fans like garbage more than anything. I played and enjoyed Brawl, but that doesn't mean I'm going to vote for every damn Brawl character. And most of the ones I will vote for are because of their non-Brawl games, like Fox, Falco and Diddy. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/6/2008 10:18:09 PM | message detail |
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Vivi cut Snake --- Albion Hero http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2008 10:27:09 PM | message detail |
| And I don't understand the Jinjo fear. Jinjo is a dead LUE fad.... he has nothing to draw strength from. He's as much a joke character as Jade and Luke are. |
