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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 585

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:03:27 PM | message detail
Gotta hand it to Ike, he's got nasty comeback potential for any other further contest matches. Shaving off 1000 votes on a character whose day vote isn't that bad, while being LFFd, in this format is no easy feat.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:03:29 PM | message detail
Hey RPG Guy. Can you post Ike and Arthas trends from last year?
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:04:23 PM | message detail
Shame Ike couldn't have kept it closer last night or this could have been a good one.
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CB7 Score: 48/60
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:04:39 PM | message detail
Last year, Arthas's best time was the morning vote, just like today. Ike's best time was the ASV...just like today. Yep, going according to formula here.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
transients | Posted 10/3/2008 6:05:02 PM | message detail
FF10's best time has always been the deep night. not sure if Tidus follows that, but Rikku and Yuna and Auron have always cleaned up there.

Tidus is never around long enough to really get a read on his trends.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:05:26 PM | message detail
I'm looking to see who did better with second night vote, since thats what its coming down to.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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Biolizard28 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:05:39 PM | message detail
Barring a massive FE rally, I don't see Ike coming back.

Sucks too, because I get to hear Albion cry about how fodderific he is next year, too.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:07:07 PM | message detail
Coming down to? This match was over the moment Arthas hit 2300 votes.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:07:31 PM | message detail
He's not fodderific. He's the strongest of the Brawl newcomers. And I honestly like the guy, I woulda rooted for him if he wasn't in a match with Arthas. But when you pit characters against my favorite characters, I can't help but root against them.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:07:50 PM | message detail
Hey, Tidus usually stays around longer than Rikku!

As for his second round match, Tidus didn't do too much. He went up a little bit with the night vote and early morning vote, but he stayed pretty static most of the rest of the way. He finished about a percent higher than he finished the first hour with.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
hellfire104 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:08:45 PM | message detail
This is officially over. Not only did Arthas just win an update, but the average votes needed for Ike to win has gone from 42 votes/update to 67 votes/update in only 20 minutes.

It'd take him until 4am to take the lead back and by that time, Arthas will be gaining again.

Bye Bye Ike.
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Contest Point Total: 46 Rank: 96.7%tile, Tied for 1460
This Pick: Pikachu > Arthas
transients | Posted 10/3/2008 6:09:35 PM | message detail
this has been over for over 12 hours.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:10:30 PM | message detail
Ike vs. Marth.

I still see this being brought up. I'm not sure why. To me Ike>Marth is incredibly obvious, but...

Does anyone here take Marth? Why?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
vcharon | Posted 10/3/2008 6:11:00 PM | message detail
Why do you people keep holding out hope Arthas is going to collapse completely? It's over... geez. This type of lead would take a long time to overcome, let alone to do it with less than 3 hours to go.

Tidus got a Dissidia pic, ugh. That's not going to help... it could have helped Zidane, but this just doesn't do much for Tidus.
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:>
hellfire104 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:12:01 PM | message detail
As far as the next match goes, people are predicting 29% for Donkey Kong in this match but honestly, I think it will be lower than that. After seeing Diddy's horrible performance earlier in the contest, I think Tidus is sure to win this one.

The weighted cube is going to choke. It doesnt have the same joke vote that L-block has.
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Contest Point Total: 46 Rank: 96.7%tile, Tied for 1460
This Pick: Pikachu > Arthas
hellfire104 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:14:03 PM | message detail
Where is the pic for Tidus? Can you post a link?
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Contest Point Total: 46 Rank: 96.7%tile, Tied for 1460
This Pick: Pikachu > Arthas
vcharon | Posted 10/3/2008 6:15:38 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-17.jpg
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:>
hellfire104 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:16:55 PM | message detail
Ungghhhh, thats not good.
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Contest Point Total: 46 Rank: 96.7%tile, Tied for 1460
This Pick: Pikachu > Arthas
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/3/2008 6:17:12 PM | message detail
Cube > DK
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Good Times,
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vcharon | Posted 10/3/2008 6:17:15 PM | message detail
I really hope WCC is fodder. 2 jokes in the second round is bad enough, but possibly 3, 4 or even 5 makes me sick on the stomach.

All of these guys are so weak though, it's really sad when Tidus may actually be the one that has the best contest performances... that is really saying a lot.
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:22:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, the fact that Nintendo hasn't done that great to date (Some might even say Pikachu isn't doing that well here. I saw a lot of Oracles have him in the 35-40% range) gives me a bit more confidence in Tidus ousting DK, but we'll see.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:22:54 PM | message detail
Well no wonder I've been snapping at people and feeling miserable all day. I just found out that I have a fever! I blame Arthas.

After seeing GlaDOS and Spy, I would be very surprised if the Cube didn't place.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
hellfire104 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:23:32 PM | message detail
There is no freaking chance that this ends up DK > Cube.

0 chance.

Cube is not advancing. L-block is strong because hes from tetris and EVERYBODY knows tetris. We saw how well the Dog did and the Dog is better known than the stupid cube from half-life.
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Contest Point Total: 46 Rank: 96.7%tile, Tied for 1460
This Pick: Pikachu > Arthas
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:23:38 PM | message detail
Pikachu not living up to expectations can easily be put down to all of his competition being stronger than expected.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
vcharon | Posted 10/3/2008 6:25:50 PM | message detail
Well... here are my thoughts on this...

GlaDOS did respectable, but still lost handily to Falco. I personally would take Tidus, Tails and DK over Falco head on. So this means WCC needs to be much stronger than GlaDOS to have a chance here.

Again, I really hope not. But with L-Block winning its match I don't have any faith in this site's voters whatsoever.
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:>
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:26:35 PM | message detail
Uh, the other two are debatable but Tails is nowhere near Falco. Tails lost to The Boss.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
hellfire104 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:28:19 PM | message detail
Heres's my take on the voting:

Tidus: 33%
Donkey Kong: 28%
WCC: 22%
Tails: 17%


We'll see how well I do in about 2 1/2 hours.
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Contest Point Total: 46 Rank: 96.7%tile, Tied for 1460
This Pick: Pikachu > Arthas
charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:30:43 PM | message detail
Match XVII: Donkey Kong vs. Miles “Tails” Prower vs. Tidus vs. Weighted Companion Cube

Information:

Name: Donkey Kong
Game/Series From: Donkey Kong series
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 4th in round 2

Donkey Kong was unlucky last year by getting a Nintendo in both of his matches; though it was his presence in round 2 that caused the L-Block train to officially roll. Donkey Kong has been known for choking in his matches and with another choker this match may cause the world to implode.

Name: Miles “Tails” Prower
Game/Series From: Sonic series
2007 Results: 4th in round 1

This guy is probably the most apathetic character that has been in the most contests. Tails has never caused much of a stir in the contest setting, even in his match against Viewtiful Joe many people just chalked it up at Joe failing. The fox lost a bragging rights match against The Boss for third, showing another sign that Sonic characters don’t do well in this format.

Name: Tidus
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy X
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 4th in round 2

Tidus is the other choker of this match. Unlike Donkey Kong Tidus hasn’t always been known as a chocker, in 2002 and 2003 he had very impressive performances and even his match against Shadow in 2004 was considered to be a good showing at the time. Of course now we see a Tidus who lost to Pikachu in the first round when many expected him to win and even though he came in fourth in the next round he still had a respectable performance against Vivi.

Name: Weighted Companion Cube
Game/Series From: Portal
2007 Results: Did not enter

The new guy or thing, the cube has recently been gaining some popularity after the performances of other joke characters and GlaDOS and being in this kind of match where somebody is bound to choke the cube may be able to sneak by.

Analysis:

During the bracket making period this match didn’t get much discussion though with the nature of some of the contestants and joke characters doing better than they did last year this match has begun to gain a lot of hype. Right now this match has the potential of having three of the characters placing in either order. It seems unlikely for something not to happen, but what will happen is another story entirely.

Tails will get last here and while he’s never failed to meet our expectations he’s never surpassed them either. Tails is the ultimate apathetic character; he’s actually the most popular character that I have to look up to see who is in what match from time to time. Tails also won’t disappoint either after you take the fact that Sonic characters are doing horrible in this format.

The Weighted Companion Cube has gained a lot of support over the last few days and while it will get a respectable percent I still don’t buy the hype he’s been receiving. Portal is more popular than what I gave credit for though the amount of people who have played the game in order to get the joke is small compared to the other joke characters. GlaDOS’ performance was more than what I expected, but I don’t expect much more people to be supporting the cube over her, she did sing the Still Alive song which is popular in its own right.

During the bracket making process Tidus was the favourite to win the group, though every year he seems to be getting weaker. His loss to Pikachu was embarrassing; sure there were other RPG characters there too and we were underestimating Pikachu, but that match will go under Tidus’ record as one of his low points. At least he was able to stay steady with Vivi though that then caused Pikachu to advance to round three.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:31:00 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong has always been known for having interesting matches and this one is no exception. While DK is known as a choker last year we was able to break 40% on Kratos despite Marth being in the poll and with no one to hold him back he has become my pick for first place. Some may argue that Tidus was able to keep up with Vivi while the black mage easily won over Donkey Kong, but that match occurred in 2004, before the Nintendo boost. Besides the only character with any long term strength that from FFX seems to be Auron and with the new era Tidus seems to be disappearing fast.

Even though I don’t buy the hype of Cube’s strength I won’t be surprised if the object placed. This match however is between Tidus and Donkey Kong and with both being such well known chokers it seems fitting to have a match between the two. With the Final Fantasy fanbase moving away from Tidus I’m expecting him to take the choking crown.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Donkey Kong > Tidus

charmander6000’s Prediction: Donkey Kong – 32.24%, Tidus – 29.74%, Weighted Companion Cube – 23.53%, Tails – 14.49%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 45/60 Today's Match: Pikachu > Ike
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 6:31:10 PM | message detail
He's not fodderific. He's the strongest of the Brawl newcomers. And I honestly like the guy, I woulda rooted for him if he wasn't in a match with Arthas. But when you pit characters against my favorite characters, I can't help but root against them.

Now you see how I feel about Arthas, but... You never thought he was fodderific? You wouldn't stop going on about how he was going to lose firmly to Spy.

Oh, and screw you, Pikachu.

Speaking of Pikachu, he's consistent with last year. Just look at the difference between Ike and Isaac. The two are likely to be similar in terms of the way they split the fanbase with Pikachu, but Ike is stronger. It fits. Oracles weren't thinking is all.

And with that, I'm going to bed. Damn interesting matches.
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The below statement is the most false thing in the world.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:33:04 PM | message detail
Uh... I never said Ike would lost to Spy. IIRC, this is my oracle projection:

Pikachu - 34%
Arthas - 30%
Ike - 28%
Spy - 8%

I didn't think very highly of Spy.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/3/2008 6:33:39 PM | message detail

GlaDOS did respectable, but still lost handily to Falco. I personally would take Tidus, Tails and DK over Falco head on. So this means WCC needs to be much stronger than GlaDOS to have a chance here.


Everyone knows Cube is stronger then GlaDOS (as sad as that is).

Falco >> Tails easily. Falco/Tidus/DK would be tough.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:36:20 PM | message detail
Ike with 48 vote cut.

Looks like he'll get this to under 1000
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 45/60 Today's Match: Pikachu > Ike
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:37:00 PM | message detail
*builds time machine*
*makes it so that Ike has more updates like that, only a few hours ago*

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:38:18 PM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#184)
*builds time machine*
*makes it so that Ike has more updates like that, only a few hours ago*



Saying you'll stuff, are we?
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:40:47 PM | message detail
No, it means I have a DeLoreon.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/3/2008 6:42:02 PM | message detail
LOL
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The Straight Up G
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Lopen | Posted 10/3/2008 6:43:55 PM | message detail
GlaDOS being weaker than the WCC is not a given to me, but maybe I just don't know anything about the Portal fanbase.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:44:35 PM | message detail
I can see people who aren't even portal fans voting for the Cube though. I mean... its a box with a heart. Thats pretty funny
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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NeoElfboy | Posted 10/3/2008 6:45:50 PM | message detail
Ike vs. Marth.

I still see this being brought up. I'm not sure why. To me Ike>Marth is incredibly obvious, but...

Does anyone here take Marth? Why?


I don't follow these contests too closely any more, but just intuitively, I'd expect Marth to be stronger than Ike. I mean, it's basically Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. Fire Emblem 9-10. (They're also both in Brawl, but Marth is considered the stronger character there, if there's any difference at all. And Marth is also in FE1/3/DS, which may actually be worth something due to FE:DS's recent release in Japan). Melee is obviously MUCH more popular than the recent console Fire Emblems. Marth is definitely one of the faces of Melee.

In order for Ike > Marth, you'd need to see Marth as a negligible player in Melee (which I don't agree with) and also see FE9-10 as significant (something which, given the unimpressiveness of Isaac and the fact that Lyn/Hector, who are from a more popular FE than Ike, haven't even managed to get into the contest, I just can't buy).

I'm probably missing something. Fill me in.
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vcharon | Posted 10/3/2008 6:47:56 PM | message detail
It isn't really funny, but I know the internets will think it is.

Still, L-Block does have its own base to rely on coupled with the joke/anti-voters. Obviously that base is much larger than the Portal base, or any person would assume so at least.

It should be an interesting match regardless. We'll get a good vision on how the rest of the joke entries will perform after this point.
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:49:22 PM | message detail
Cube has a good chance of being stronger than GlaDOS because people who don't even know who it is will be inclined to vote for it. We'll see though. Falco would have a hard time with DK and Tidus, but I think he can whip Tails. The fact that these three characters are all around the same level of strength (though Tails is a step below Tidus and DK) could help the Cube, actually.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Lopen | Posted 10/3/2008 6:53:27 PM | message detail
I think people are overestimating the joke appeal of the name "Weighted Companion Cube" and it being a cube with a heart on it. I doubt many people who are ignorant of what it is vote for it.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Master Moltar | Posted 10/3/2008 6:53:50 PM | message detail
I love Portal, but I ain't voting for the Cube. I did vote for GlaDOS though.

So uh...yeah
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Moltar Status: augh
Arthas/Ike/Pikachu/Spy - Bracket: Pikachu > Arthas - Vote: Uhh... (46/60)
transients | Posted 10/3/2008 6:54:54 PM | message detail
same.

but we're the exception here -- hardcore elitist stat geeks. the majority will recognize the Cube way before they notice Glados.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
thok | Posted 10/3/2008 6:56:24 PM | message detail
Why would people vote for a box with a heart on it over a monkey with a tie, assuming they don't know anything about either of them? WCC isn't getting the know nothing vote, assuming it even exists.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:56:50 PM | message detail
Yeah, the Cube's chances of winning are going to have to come from its appeal to those outside the Orange Box base.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
TheRye | Posted 10/3/2008 6:56:56 PM | message detail
I think people are overestimating the joke appeal of the name "Weighted Companion Cube" and it being a cube with a heart on it. I doubt many people who are ignorant of what it is vote for it.

I... I don't know if this is a good thing or not, but I fully agree with Lopen on this
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The Rye - The one and only...
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/3/2008 6:57:47 PM | message detail
Don't take this as a dig, but this general sentiment is making me feel even more confident in the Cube.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:58:23 PM | message detail
Actually, at this point, I'm calling for a Tails win to mess EVERYTHING up.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
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