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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 584

Lopen | Posted 10/3/2008 3:50:41 AM | message detail
Arthas is gaining with the morning vote.

Do you think the kiddies love the Lich King or something? Ike is dead. While the ASV should favor Ike a bit more, it'll favor Arthas a bit more too, proportionally.
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Spark Mandrill | Posted 10/3/2008 3:52:06 AM | message detail
For all we know, Blizzard's day vote was hidden somehow.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 3:59:11 AM | message detail
Just how early do you crazy American kids get up? Last i checked it wasn't even 7 over there, so the morning vote's hardly in full swing. Give it a little while.

But Arthas seems to be dropping the ball.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 10/3/2008 4:30:55 AM | message detail
It's 7:30 here.

>_>
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/3/2008 4:32:24 AM | message detail
Well Ike is actually starting to cut Arthas' lead, but it probably won't be enough
As long as it ends up close to my prediction...
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Today's prediction: Pikasuck 33.00% - Arthas 25.70% - Ike 25.40% - Spy 15.90%
Status: Great
charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2008 4:37:05 AM | message detail
Whatever Ike does here Arthas will probably take a good chunk back during the DSV.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 45/60 Today's Match: Pikachu > Ike
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 4:38:22 AM | message detail
Ike needs to be GAINING now. Not losing 20 votes to Arthas.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 4:45:57 AM | message detail
One shot comebacks often happen in the Morning vote/ASV. If Arthas can duplicate that, however...

Although, this proves that casual vote-wise, Arthas is no Gordon. He'll probably make up what he loses here in the day vote, but he also has the Europe ASV to worry about-Brawl's very recent over here.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 4:48:59 AM | message detail
Uh, OK.

Ike is still gaining vote-wise. By a lot.

But Arthas is spiking FOR NO REASON.

I suspect shenanigans. Someone get Allen on the case somehow. Obvious cheating is moderately obvious.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 4:59:44 AM | message detail

Lightning Strikes (#359)
Uh, OK.

Ike is still gaining vote-wise. By a lot.

But Arthas is spiking FOR NO REASON.

I suspect shenanigans. Someone get Allen on the case somehow. Obvious cheating is moderately obvious.



Uh, its nothing fishy on Arthas part. Its just that Pika is going crazy with the kiddy vote and Ike is jobbing. People expected Ike to do well with the kiddy vote over Pikachu? xD This was last update:

Arthas - 25.90%

Ike - 22.30%

Pikachu - 38.85%

Spy - 12.95%
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 5:06:21 AM | message detail
No. If anything the last update proves my case.

Arthas was losing to Ike big time. And then he suddenly stops and spikes, WHILE IKE IS STILL GAINING PERCENTAGE-WISE. Then, when Ike starts to decline, he goes back to what he was before.

That's really, really obvious cheating. In fact, it might even be you doing it.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 5:10:01 AM | message detail
Incase you missed my post in Vlados topic:

"Rallying doesn't equal cheating, Lightning boy. I just woke up and started rallying again. Arthas takes leads. Get it? Good."
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2008 5:14:04 AM | message detail
... Arthas wins.
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Character Battle 2008: Points 45/60 Today's Match: Pikachu > Ike
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 5:15:21 AM | message detail
Arthas is cutting Pikachu with the morning vote, and just put up a 40 gainer on Ike

I thought he was supposed to suck at this time
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 5:19:18 AM | message detail
Not even Frog and Phoenix have THAT much rally-power.

And especially considering Ike's big gain just then, you can't tell me that at least that last update wasn't stuffing, even if his stall was legit.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 5:20:20 AM | message detail
It wasn't stuffing.

I just posted a topic on WoW forums right before it for the first time since last night. So likely people who just woke up and checked wow forums and saw it, and voted for Arthas.

Which is totally in the rules, fyi.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 5:24:39 AM | message detail
If anything, I'd call stuffing for Ike that last update where he gained. Look at these current trends:

7:50 - 23.40%
7:55 - 22.30%
8:00 - 22.82%
8:05 - 22.67%
8:10 - 23.20%
8:15 - 27.70% (the update he got gains)
8:20 - 21.36%

One stands out quite a bit, don't you think?
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 5:32:00 AM | message detail
I hope Hogger is sub-tanner just to spite you, Alby.

Although one must wonder how much the pic(which is also cheating OMG) is helping Arthas. He definitely has a huge pic advantage.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 5:32:47 AM | message detail
Did you see who submitted his pic, btw?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2008 5:48:46 AM | message detail
So who's worried about not having Arthas in Round 3 now?

'CAUSE I SURE AM ACK


I was always a little worried, but I think Alucard is safe. Arthas isn't doing nearly as well as I thought he would.
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 5:49:30 AM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Alucard | Falcon | Diddy | Kratos A.
PHV | 34.51% | 32.08% | 17.61% | 15.80% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 38.56% | 26.76% | 18.39% | 16.29% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 34.91% | 28.85% | 19.79% | 16.45% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 37.85% | 26.33% | 19.17% | 16.66% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 32.73% | 29.58% | 19.32% | 18.37% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 37.85% | 26.82% | 17.81% | 17.52% | (22:00-24:00)

Man, watching Alucard and Captain Falcon shift drastically between time frames is amazing. Kratos has a good ASV, seems like. Diddy is the first Nintendo character whose Power Hour was the worst time. I'm thinking DK's probably pretty close to the same way. Makes sense. We'll find out tomorrow.

Yesterday's stats:

Alucard – 50.00%
Captain Falcon – 44.41%
Diddy Kong – 34.74%
Kratos Aurion – 32.53%


The fact that Ike is only stalling Arthas right now when this is typically the time Nintendo tears things up isn't a good sign for him. He'll have to hope for a monster ASV at this point. Either that, or he's going to have to find some way to find the during school vote and the after school vote, which doesn't usually happen. Pikachu's the one tearing things up right now.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 5:51:48 AM | message detail
Firstly, Zen, look at what time it was I made that post. >_>

Secondly, what makes me think Arthas is cheating rather than just a rally is the way that Ike is still gaining percentage, but Arthas stays JUST above him. He's always strong enough to mysteriously block Ike's gains, and this is consistent.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 5:53:35 AM | message detail
Part of the reason Ike can still go up in percentage despite the fact he's not gaining is that Spy is dropping like a rock.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 5:55:38 AM | message detail
Oh, and I knew it was you before I even looked. Looks like I was right about you cheating!
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smitelf | Posted 10/3/2008 5:58:18 AM | message detail
Damn it, Arthas is doing well now. I really thought he'd tank. My bracket and myself are both gagging - can't stand Arthas.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:00:35 AM | message detail
And I'll go ahead and eat my words about Diablo/Arthas having minimal to no LFF. I was wrong about that.

Ike's not out of it yet though. He just really has to start pickin' it up. Not liking his chances, but I haven't given up on him yet.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:00:41 AM | message detail
Smite, I think this should be a lesson for you to never totally trust board votes when it comes to a Nintendo character vs. a character not totally loved on the board.

Anyway, I think this definently shows there WAS significant LFF between Diablo and Arthas.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/3/2008 6:10:48 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRNwYpqbttI
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:13:08 AM | message detail
Ike isn't out of this yet - and only needs about 9 votes an update to win - but he needs to start gaining soon.

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Bracket:
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 6:13:33 AM | message detail
Of course, Diablo couldn't have hurt Arthas THAT much considering that last year Arthas only had a minor rally which according to Albion produced some anti-votes. Also, Wottlekay hype combined with his picture(although not quite TPF-Arthas had that last year too).

But GG Ike. He still has a small chance, but Pika(and POSSIBLE Arthas cheating-not sure if it's enough to change the result but his pattern is suspicious) have screwed him over. Definitely the strongest Brawl newcomer.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:15:50 AM | message detail
Yeah, I don't know if Pikachu is hindering Ike or not. Seems to be taking away some of that morning vote power though. The next round is going to be interesting though, I think. Alucard > Pikachu looks like the winner right now though.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:17:04 AM | message detail
Pika is absolutely hindering Ike. He's doing better now than he did with the early morning vote, which makes no sense unless SFF was involved.

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Bracket:
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:18:36 AM | message detail
Why do you people think its not over except bias for Ike? Do you think Ike will come back from over 1500 down when its already obvious Pikachu takes the kiddy votes? Honestly, I wouldnt be surprised if Ike NEVER makes a comeback with the rat in the match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 10/3/2008 6:18:45 AM | message detail
Argh, Ike can't take too many more updates like that.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:20:19 AM | message detail
Because Arthas was terrible with the day vote last year? It's a slim possibility, but it's there.

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Bracket:
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:21:05 AM | message detail
And that was pre WoW, and WoW = Casual, and Casual gets good day vote.

Or do you make up the trends in a way that benefits you the most?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:21:36 AM | message detail
1. Don't be an ass.
2. WoW will not matter that much.

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Bracket:
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2008 6:23:42 AM | message detail
1. WoW matters in the sense that rallying will continue to buoy Arthas even during the day vote (thus staunching his losses)
2. ...Ike is finished here. We're entering a comeback threshold in Axel/Frog territory.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:24:29 AM | message detail
I think WoW has infact already shows it matters. Arthas wouldn't of been doing this pre WoW buff.

Also, another 20 vote gain. When do you think Ike is gonna start gaining, if ever?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:24:53 AM | message detail
1. I wasn't talking about rallying, only his normal voting patterns.
2. Works for me!

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Bracket:
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2008 6:27:16 AM | message detail
Also I see LS is being very lol again well time to skedaddle
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:27:45 AM | message detail
And speaking of rallying...holy hell, this match has as many votes as the L-Block match did at this time. Either there's some serious rallying going on or GameFAQs fins the idea of Ik/Pika/Arthas/Spy absolutely riveting.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:34:56 AM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#392)
And speaking of rallying...holy hell, this match has as many votes as the L-Block match did at this time. Either there's some serious rallying going on or GameFAQs fins the idea of Ik/Pika/Arthas/Spy absolutely riveting.


Or it's CHEATING GRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/3/2008 6:39:07 AM | message detail
Aren't Ike's voting trends quite odd for an Rpg character?
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/3/2008 6:40:29 AM | message detail

__Smurf__ (#394)
Aren't Ike's voting trends quite odd for an Rpg character?


Yeah because CHEATING

And probably also because his strength is more Brawl than Fire Emblem. And Pikachu's sharing the poll with him.

Speaking of which, how were Marth's trends and last year Ike's trend compared to how he's doing so far?
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2008 6:55:31 AM | message detail
Are people so sure Ike > Marth right now? Ike's currently further away from Pikachu than Marth from DK last year and we've debated about whether or not being in SSB/M gives a favorable position against SSBB-newcomers.

I'm okay either way, but it felt a little premature when I came across that earlier. I'm waiting to see if Ike can pick this up with the ASV (like he should) first.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/3/2008 6:56:20 AM | message detail
I wouldn't put DK anywhere near Pikachu in this format.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2008 6:57:46 AM | message detail
Also, Arthas has this. He's already got linkage and Pika's in the poll, so Ike's ASV will be diluted...and I don't think Ike's doing much any other time. With Arthas's big lead, that's terribly big to overcome. One-on-one, maybe, but not like this.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2008 7:22:28 AM | message detail
Pikachu is getting 53.79% on Arthas, 56.68% on Ike and 66.23% on Spy

Arthas is getting 52.92% on Ike and 62.75% on Spy

Ike is getting 59.98% on Spy
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Character Battle 2008: Points 45/60 Today's Match: Pikachu > Ike
Lightning Strikes | Posted 10/3/2008 7:25:34 AM | message detail
I thinm if anything, it proves that Pikachu>DK.

How am I being lol?

And Ike is stalling with the Europe pre-ASV. Expect him to make some small gains soon. If he does anything signifcant, he still has a shot.
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