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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 583

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:16:16 PM | message detail
Oh god, Lopen's calling for Ike to win.

*tears up bracket*
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CB7 Score: 46/56
http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:17:22 PM | message detail
Hey, Lopen has to be right sometime. Laws of probability and all that.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:30:07 PM | message detail
Just Bio and I have Pika > Ike? This is shaping up to be an interesting match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 8:31:05 PM | message detail
No, like KOS-MOS/Frog, this match being anything but a boring expected result is a complete fabrication of the stats topic.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:32:52 PM | message detail
I still think Spy will get second to spite everyone. It is one of those contests.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Gaddswell | Posted 10/2/2008 8:38:40 PM | message detail
Probably does end up boring after the first hour, but I gotta admit that seeing all this debate between the two is great.
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sig
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:39:13 PM | message detail
Watch, after all this debate... Pikachu is the one who doesnt advance.

How great would that be?
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:39:42 PM | message detail
Pikachu not advancing would be very very awesome.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:39:45 PM | message detail
As long as Pikachu wins, I'm satisfied. Arthas is my bracket pick, Ike is my personal pick (after Pikachu), and Spy is my "LMAO" pick.

Of course watch it be Spy > Pikachu, which would be even better.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:40:17 PM | message detail
actually it would be great if we just skipped this match and no one advanced
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Moltar Status: augh
Arthas/Ike/Pikachu/Spy - Bracket: Pikachu > Arthas - Vote: Uhh... (46/60)
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:40:39 PM | message detail
No, like KOS-MOS/Frog, this match being anything but a boring expected result is a complete fabrication of the stats topic.

The match could turn that way, though that would be from Pikachu stealing votes from Ike. Pokemon are considered to be different then the rest of Nintendo. Will Ike be SFF? Probably, but not to the extent where he'll be having a match against Spy.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:41:06 PM | message detail
Even if we can't agree on anything else, at least we can agree on hating that stupid yellow rat.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:41:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, at this point Pikachu not advancing is actually the most probable thing happening since everyone else hasn't considered it. Much like Kefka/Niko for second, Altair/Isaac for second, Diddy/Kratos for second, watch Pikachu not even advance while Arthas and Ike tie for second after a Spy win.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:41:54 PM | message detail
I liked Pikachu before last year. I liked him.

Tidus, Vivi, Leon, and Luigi say hi, you stupid rat.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:42:13 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#412)
Even if we can't agree on anything else, at least we can agree on hating that stupid yellow rat.


Disagree with that. Pikachu's awesome as hell, and his run was the highlight of last year's contest in my eyes, L-Block or no.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
HaRRicH | Posted 10/2/2008 8:42:24 PM | message detail
I wanna see Pika > Ike (though I'm voting Ike)...

...because imagine the hell next round if Pika and CF hurt each other's long-term SSB-support and Ike advances purely off SSBB-favoritism!
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:42:36 PM | message detail
The contest would suck if Pikachu doesn't advance.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:43:33 PM | message detail
Arthas and Ike advancing, in either order, would be best for me. Cuz then next round, Ike and Falcon will LFF eachother to the ground by both being popular characters to play in SSBB who mainly get strength from SSBB, and allow it to be Alucard > Arthas
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/2/2008 8:43:35 PM | message detail
Go Pika!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:44:30 PM | message detail
Let's all talk about Pikachu not advancing!

Yep, Arthas > Ike or Ike > Arthas are clearly the only two options that can happen! There's absolutely no way Pikachu will get first! NO WAY.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:45:31 PM | message detail
Looks like this match will rank last in terms of vote total.

Still over 120k.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:45:47 PM | message detail
Everyone is going to realize that Pikachu is the worst option in the poll. I have faith in the intelligence of the casual voting block.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:46:39 PM | message detail
Well, since we've exhausted all possibilities, I guess Pikachu > Arthas > Ike > Spy is the likely result, and most of the percentage predictions will be spot on.

Yawn.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:46:46 PM | message detail
Pikachu is totally the best option in the poll

Pikachu > Spy > Ike > Arthas
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For your health.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 8:46:51 PM | message detail
Round 1

Division 4- Match 4

Arthas


One of the most impressive newcomers last year, what is Arthas capable of when he isn't tied down with SFF?

Ike

One of the least impressive newcomers last year, what is Ike capable of when he is tied down with SFF?

Pikachu

My dark horse! Unfortunately he has a fairly predictable path this year.

Spy

Orange Box character #3 of 5, he should pull in about 13% and that's it.

Analysis:

This right here is the single most debated round 1 matchup, and it should not be AT ALL. All contest, people have been saying "This match proves that _____" or "Since _______ impressed, ________ can't possibly lose".

I'll start off with the clear first place character and the clear last place character.

Pikachu went on a complete tear last year, exceeding even my expectations. Say what you will about him having "an easy path", but you can't take away from his victory over Teedus in the first round. Pikachu is a high-midcarder, probably around Fox's level, and he's definitely higher on the Nintendo Totem poll than Ike.

Spy is a class from Team Fortress. I don't know much about the game, but apparantly it's a niche hit like Portal, so Spy should have a small percentage of people supporting him, but too small to make a difference here.

That leaves us with Arthas and Ike battling for second place.

And saying that puzzles me greatly because I can't see Ike having a chance here. I could sit here and rhyme off the reasons why Brawl means nothing or such from this year's matches, but I'll simply let 2 polls do the talking:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2864
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2893

Arthas almost beat KOS-MOS, high end fodder, with Diablo there splitting even with him. Since then, he has had a huge marketing push for his upcoming WoW expansion Wrath of the Lich King (which comes out next month IIRC).

Ike on the other hand, lost comfortably to Duke Nukem and Gordon Freeman. Since then he has had Brawl, and I honestly consider Ike/Arthas 1v1 to be a close match, but with the yellow rat in the poll, I don't understand why we're even discussing this. As a matter of fact, I'm more worried about Arthas beating Pikachu due to the SFF.

TuRtLe's Prediction: PIkachu 32%, Arthas 29%, Ike 24%, Spy 15%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Pikachu > Arthas
TuRtLe's Vote: Arthas
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:47:08 PM | message detail
Let's all talk about Pikachu not advancing!

Yep, Arthas > Ike or Ike > Arthas are clearly the only two options that can happen! There's absolutely no way Pikachu will get first! NO WAY.


I'd prefer Arthas > Ike so I would get more points. Lol point system.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:47:47 PM | message detail
I would prefer Ike>Arthas because my bracket is in flames right now, so watching all of your's burn will make me feel better!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:49:10 PM | message detail
I expect Ike to come out on top a tiny bit by the first update... If Arthas is winning the first update, no matter how small, its over for Ike since that SHOULD be Ikes best time.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:50:53 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Pikachu dominated every board vote last year, so Ike might not be doing as well right out the gate.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:51:41 PM | message detail
Which would be SFF... yes?
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:51:53 PM | message detail
With all four characters being day vote characters, who gets the night vote?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 8:53:12 PM | message detail
Arthas and Spy should be the better night vote characters. Pika and Ike should have great early votes.
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xyzzy
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:53:22 PM | message detail
The Spy probably gets the night vote.
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"Men that are trapped by chains of 'maybe' can never reach their dreams!"
Explicit Content > me in the Guru
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:53:41 PM | message detail
PC characters are night characters, so Spy won't get the day vote.

Arthas' 'day vote' last year was also due to no bracket voters supporting him.

Pikachu>Ike>Arthas>Spy in day votes.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:53:55 PM | message detail
I'd say Arthas would have better night vote of the characters that stand a chance, whereas Pikachu and Ike will have better day votes.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 8:54:15 PM | message detail
if memory serves, Arthas rocked the night vote after Diablo got the early vote. then Diablo came back a little in the day vote.
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xyzzy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:55:10 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2864&type=0&seconds=60&max=0
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 8:55:54 PM | message detail
I'd peg Arthas to be a more neutral character, like Mega Man. I mean, WoW players are up at all times of the day anyways.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:57:36 PM | message detail
I wasn't daring enough to do it in my oracle prediction, but I think Spy could be on level with Tanner. I'm expecting a flood of "XD SPY" posts in about ten minutes.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:57:43 PM | message detail
I'm really nervous <_<;
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Draco1214 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:58:14 PM | message detail
I have a feeling this match will have a shocking result...like Arthas or Ike placing first or Pikachu not placing at all.
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"Men that are trapped by chains of 'maybe' can never reach their dreams!"
Explicit Content > me in the Guru
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:58:33 PM | message detail
So everyone ready to see Pikachu open up the match with over 50%?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/2/2008 8:59:04 PM | message detail
I plan to help him do that.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 8:59:47 PM | message detail
I wasn't daring enough to do it in my oracle prediction, but I think Spy could be on level with Tanner. I'm expecting a flood of "XD SPY" posts in about ten minutes.

Not a chance.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Arthas Menethil 28.57%

2
Ike 28.57%

2
Pikachu 28.57%

2
Spy 14.29%

1
TOTAL VOTES 7

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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 9:00:18 PM | message detail
Arthas Menethil 26.09%

6
Ike 8.7%

2
Pikachu 43.48%

10
Spy 21.74%

5
TOTAL VOTES 23

hmm
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Moltar Status: augh
Arthas/Ike/Pikachu/Spy - Bracket: Pikachu > Arthas - Vote: Uhh... (46/60)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/2/2008 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Arthas Menethil 18% 18
Ike 27% 27
Pikachu 43% 43
Spy 12% 12
TOTAL VOTES 100
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sig
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/2/2008 9:00:27 PM | message detail
Arthas Menethil 20.69% 6
Ike 17.24% 5
Pikachu 44.83% 13
Spy 17.24% 5

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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 9:00:40 PM | message detail
XD SPY
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 9:00:48 PM | message detail
Spy is doing better then expected.
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Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest!
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