GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 583
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 6:25:25 PM | message detail |
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Match XVI: Arthas Menethil vs. Ike vs. Pikachu vs. Spy Information: Name: Arthas Menethil Game/Series From: Warcraft series 2007 Results: 3rd in round 1 Not many people gave the guy much credit last year and even though he didn’t win he showed off that he was the strongest Blizzard character by beating Diablo by a few hundred votes. Was there LFF involved which meant that Arthas was cheated out of a spot? A new Warcraft game is coming out in about a month involving Arthas will hype make the difference? Name: Ike Game/Series From: Fire Emblem 9 and 10 2007 Results: 3rd in round 1 Ike’s announcement to Brawl on the Brawl site came on the very same day as nominations were released. With the board being fanatics of everything Brawl related not only got him in the contest, but hyped him so much that many thought he would get first. The guy did well despite only having one Fire Emblem game and hype from a website. This year he has fan favourite status in Brawl plus another Fire Emblem game to add to his strength. Name: Pikachu Game/Series From: Pokemon series 2007 Results: 1st in round 1, 2nd in round 2, 1st in round 3, 4th in round 4 If it wasn’t for L-Block I would have considered Pikachu to be the surprise of the contest and the luckiest. Pikachu surprised us by defeating Tidus in the first round then he used Tidus/Vivi LFF to make it to round 3, then with the weirdness known as Dante/Leon Pikachu somehow got first in the poll. His luck ran out in round 4, but he still put on a respectable performance against Luigi. I think Pokemon hate has now become a non-factor, especially in a four-way format. Name: Spy Game/Series From: Team Fortress 2 2007 Results: Did not enter Another character that I know nothing about this should be fun. From what I understand Spy is a part of an ensemble cast where you are in one of two teams battling it out for an objective. I’m not sure what else to talk about. Analysis: Finishing off this division we continue our streak of debatable matches. Here we have a sure last place, a debatable second place and a first place where it’s still debatable, but many people agree on the winner. With Pikachu’s performance last year he has become the heavy favourite at coming in first. While Lucario’s performance was a flop Mudkip’s surpassed expectations though he is a joke character. While I believe Pikachu will take first all of his matches had characters that were making him look better than he is. The only time he looked good was when he lost and wasn’t SFF by Luigi and even then it’s hard to trust that result. There is a chance that Pikachu is overrated and with the addition of a boosted Ike we could see Pikachu losing to Ike or Arthas. Spy in no doubt will be coming last. His game may have gotten good reception, but being a part of an ensemble cast where the rankings of preference between players is different is already not boding well for him. I’m not sure of the rankings between characters, but we’ve already seen such trends that occur in Tales of Symphonia and Final Fantasy VI. Also none of his opponents are what I considered fodder material. The only way Spy is avoiding last is if one of the Nintendo characters gets SFF into the ground. Arthas is the slight favourite at coming in second and in my opinion he should be the favourite here. Whether or not Diablo and Arthas LFF each other is still debatable, sure they are both from the same company and they are on the PC, but their games are so different and with the variety of PC games I think the fanbase overlap would be a lot less compared to say a Nintendo or Square character. Arthas also has a new game being released next month though I don’t see the game gaining much hype on GameFAQs and while the game has been in some advertisements they aren’t directing potential voters to GameFAQs plus many people have ad blockers. |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 10/2/2008 6:25:34 PM | message detail |
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XxSoulxX (#344) Get off your horse. What's Ike's most impressive showing? Or how about Marth if you want to pull the whole "Ike is new" crap. Would you like to tell me how Squall, lacking the KH vote, came so close to Sonic? Right now, I'd like you to tell me how this looks good at all for Diablo, and by extension, Arthas. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 6:25:47 PM | message detail |
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Ike is the underdog going into the match and as much as people like to
downplay his performance last year he did do well against Duke and
Freeman with only Path of Radiance and a website giving him support. As
we’ve seen from time to time Brawl has not added much strength to many
characters and if it’s going to it will probably go to Ike. Ike is
probably the favourite character to use by the average Brawl fan and
like Captain Falcon has gained some popularity from quotes he said or
is said about him. Ike also has a new game, Radiant Dawn and though you
don’t see Ike until about midway of the game this game is probably one
of the more popular Fire Emblems. I have Ike in second in this match and on a one on one match I would take him to beat Arthas. In this match however Pikachu is there and while the Pokemon fans tend to not interfere as much with other Nintendo characters Pikachu is no slouch in the rankings of fan favourites of Smash. Ike is going to have an uphill battle also Arthas has World of Warcraft to turn to if this match becomes too close. charmander6000’s Bracket: Pikachu > Ike charmander6000’s Prediction: Pikachu – 36.35%, Ike – 26.36%, Arthas – 24.63%, Spy – 12.66% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 6:26:17 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and I forgot. He beat that Tales character that's doing so well here, too. So... you're saying that Ike is stronger then Arthas because Diablo beat a lot of weak characters and lost respectfully to strong characters? Am I reading that right? --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 10/2/2008 6:26:20 PM | message detail |
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Nyaah! At first sight I thought that was my Ike but it wasn't ;_; --- Justin's CB Points: 48 | Points After this Round: 52 Today: Alucard > Falcon | Tomorrow: Pikachu > Ike |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 6:26:51 PM | message detail |
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Aren't you a firm believer that Luigi got screwed last year because of Pikachu? Actually, I made an argument the other day that Pokemon seems to be SFF resistant (Pikachu doing relatively well in his last match, Mewtwo doing very well on Bowser, Mudkip, Bidoof), which would only help Ike by the way. And by the way, Diablo got 35% on Ganondorf. Only got 31.45% on Sonic. Not quite so impressive. Diablo didn't beat the guy in this poll (Kratos) by a whole lot either. Didn't beat Kefka by much. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 10/2/2008 6:26:52 PM | message detail |
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Crono isn't Squall. CT's fanbase is much more independent of FFVII. And by the way, CT/FFVII drew more votes than FFVII/OOT. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 48/56 --- T-48 (98 way) Bracket: Alucard > Captain Falcon --- Vote: Captain Falcon |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 10/2/2008 6:27:04 PM | message detail |
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_Hogger_ (#350) If Cloud and Squall shared enough of a fanbase for Cloud to completly decimate him, then Crono and Clodu would too. Fun Fact: Cloud and Squall come from the same series, Squall coming from one of the most hated games, Cloud from the most loved. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 6:27:34 PM | message detail |
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If Cloud and Squall shared enough of a fanbase for Cloud to completly decimate him, then Crono and Clodu would too. Do you seriously not understand the difference between Old Square and New Square? And FF8 and CT? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 6:29:02 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and 35% on Ganondorf doesn't really seem as impressive as it used to seem. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 6:31:53 PM | message detail |
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Would you like to tell me how Squall, lacking the KH vote, came so close to Sonic? Right now, I'd like you to tell me how this looks good at all for Diablo, and by extension, Arthas. You can't compare a match that happened years ago in a 1 Vs. 1 contest setting to a match that happened in a four-way. You just can't do it. What you can go by is the fact that Diablo and Arthas were equal last year, and Diablo underperformed big time. That means only two things: 1. Diablo fell completely off the map for some unknown reason. 2. Diablo and Arthas share a fanbase, and both are strong enough to take each other out of the equation. Your argument is that Arthas and Diablo are not similar enough to share fanbases. It's a really stupid argument, because if that was the case, then Fox and Mario wouldn't share a fanbase either (ones a platformer series while the other is a rail shooter). Now then, we already have proof that they do share a fanbase according to last year's match. So why are you so convinced that Diablo/Warcraft are two completely separate entities? --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 6:32:56 PM | message detail |
| I actually agree with Biolizard here. Kefka did not suffer that much against Cloud, just like Vincent and Crono didn't overlap, and why Zidane still sucks despite being "masked" by SFF in 2k5. There's some overlap there, but certainly not as much as there is between Cloud/Squall or Cloud/Auron |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 10/2/2008 6:34:40 PM | message detail |
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Glad to see we can agree on something Turtle. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 6:34:59 PM | message detail |
| Soul brings up a good point with if there wasn't
LFF, then Diablo completly underwhelmed. Past stats showed he would
have beaten Kosmos easily, yet couldn't touch Kosmos. Anyone else think
thats fishy? Its really obvious that its because Arthas there, taking
his votes. Blizzard has fanatical fanbase who loves everything they
make, all their games use Battlenet (outside of WoW), and theres also
been many cameos of characters in Diablo and Warcraft games. And with that, I'm off to play some Tales of Vesperia. I'll be back around 11:55. --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 6:35:15 PM | message detail |
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...Am I the only one hoping Spy gets second so both sides of this fierce debate look stupid? Well, more stupid than they're already appearing. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 10/2/2008 6:35:54 PM | message detail |
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M_e_g_a_6_4 (#365) ...Am I the only one hoping Spy gets second so both sides of this fierce debate look stupid? Well, more stupid than they're already appearing. Will that change that one character will beat the other? No. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 6:36:56 PM | message detail |
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Actually, I made an argument the other day that Pokemon seems to be SFF resistant (Pikachu doing relatively well in his last match, Mewtwo doing very well on Bowser, Mudkip, Bidoof), which would only help Ike by the way. Pikachu didn't get SFFed by Luigi, but I could have sworn that Pikachu stole enough of Luigi's fanbase in order to make him lose that match. That was my point. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 6:37:11 PM | message detail |
| Spy wouldn't make anybody look stupid. You'll still have Ike/Arthas battle it out for third, and the winner gets proven right in a phyrric victory. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 6:38:44 PM | message detail |
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I'm cheering for Spy to come in first, actually. In a perfect world, it would be Spy > Arthas. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 6:38:50 PM | message detail |
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Spark Mandrill (#366) Would it make your arguments look like a complete waste of time and decrease your credibility as contest forecasters? Yes. Will it shut all of you up with the arrogance and make you all learn not to be so cocky and a jackass to your debaters? No, but it gives me an excuse to laugh at everyone in this topic for the fifth time this contest. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 6:39:28 PM | message detail |
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In a perfect world, it would be Ike>Spy. Of course, that's the least likely possible outcome, but that's why it only exists in a perfect world. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 6:40:00 PM | message detail |
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Fine, Arthas and Ike tie for third, and Mudkip ends up winning the contest. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 6:41:51 PM | message detail |
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Will it shut all of you up with the arrogance and make you all learn
not to be so cocky and a jackass to your debaters? No, but it gives me
an excuse to laugh at everyone in this topic for the fifth time this
contest. I give full permission to anyone and everyone I'm arguing against to throw it all in my face if I'm wrong. It's the reason why I don't care about the Lara > Alyx insult always thrown my way because I deserved it too after that match. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 6:48:45 PM | message detail |
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Soul brings up a good point with if there wasn't LFF, then Diablo completly underwhelmed. Which is what all things Blizzard have done the last two years in this format. May not be a coincidence. Pikachu didn't get SFFed by Luigi, but I could have sworn that Pikachu stole enough of Luigi's fanbase in order to make him lose that match. That was my point. Possible, but the fact that it's debatable gives the indication that it wasn't a significant amount. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 6:56:46 PM | message detail |
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Which is what all things Blizzard have done the last two years in this format. May not be a coincidence. The only other match aside from the Diablo/Arthas match is the Thrall match (Cain/Kerrigan doesn't count since they are jokes). He came pretty close to Vergil in their match. Since Thrall is the partial main character for the Orc campaign, and Arthas is the main character for the rest of the game, it's pretty safe to say that he's much stronger then Thrall. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 7:01:43 PM | message detail |
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Thrall was closer to Ratchet than he was to Vergil, for what it's worth. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 7:02:49 PM | message detail |
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It's not worth much. Like I said, Arthas is the star of Warcraft. Illidan would be the next in line. Thrall would be third. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 7:03:40 PM | message detail |
| I don't know if it's just me, but I think people put wayyyyy too much credit into "this format". There are a few characters that benefit from the lack of anti-votes, and that's it. Other than that, 90% of the characters performed exactly as we thought they would. |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 7:04:53 PM | message detail |
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True. Except Sonic characters are sucking. Sonic was used in the example, that's why I brought up the format. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 7:11:17 PM | message detail |
| Aside from Sonic himself, you could blame every other underperformance on Nintendo SFF |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 7:15:31 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I know. I think they are underperforming, but it's not as bad as many people think. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 7:17:02 PM | message detail |
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Alright, FINALLY. I am back. No more 50 post limit. Time to debate all effing day long. Bring it on! --- http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 7:17:12 PM | message detail |
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where's bio with all he's talking he's doing about the match he still hasn't sent me his guest analysis --- Moltar Status: augh Alucard/C. Falcon/Diddy Kong/Kratos A. - Bracket: Alucard > Diddy - Vote: Diddy (44/56) |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 7:22:41 PM | message detail |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8Nf_iTHuCE This music is fitting in more ways than one, especially if you've played Radiant Dawn. (plus just look at the name) And no, no more debating. We've dissected this match so much there's barely anything left. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 7:24:14 PM | message detail |
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No more debating. Go Spy Go! --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 7:24:28 PM | message detail |
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Oh, theres surely one last thing we have all forgotten. The Battlenet factor. --- Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest! http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 7:40:28 PM | message detail |
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Guys we have 80 minutes to fill, keep on debating! <.< --- Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest! http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 10/2/2008 7:42:44 PM | message detail |
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Um... Heavy > Kratos (GoW) I'll bet my contest t-shirt on it. --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 7:42:53 PM | message detail |
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haha I'm glad I was watching the debate instead of... this Biolizard vs. Black Turtle vs. Albion vs. KP when arguing for Ike vs. Soul let's get this damn thing over with --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/2/2008 7:44:57 PM | message detail |
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You could do other stuff in those 80 minutes. Like I was reading a fanfic where Edgeworth asks Phoenix to shave his face but then he shaves somewhere else instead. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 7:47:02 PM | message detail |
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Hey, tranny, Leon posted more arguments than I did! --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/2/2008 8:00:49 PM | message detail |
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Albion Biolizard BT KP I've got KP > Bio. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 10/2/2008 8:02:22 PM | message detail |
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BT > KP --- Vote for Arthas Menethil in the Character Contest! http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 8:03:59 PM | message detail |
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Spy>everyone else is backstabbed Question is, who was the Spy? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:10:07 PM | message detail |
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Division 4: Round 1 - Match 16 – Arthas vs. Ike vs. Pikachu vs. Spy Moltar’s Analysis Arthas Game/Series Known From: Warcraft 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Mega Man, KOS-MOS and Diablo Arthas returns, with no other Blizzard characters in his way. Ike Game/Series Known From: Fire Emblem 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Duke, Gordon and Guybrush Brawl Character #15, he fights for his friends and shows no sympathy! Pikachu Game/Series Known From: Pokemon 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1vs. Tidus, Isaac and Serge 2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Leon, Vivi and Tidus 1st Place in Round 3 vs. Dante, Leon and Amaterasu 4th Place in Round 4 vs. Master Chief, Dante and Luigi Brawl Character #16, the little rodent is back Spy Game/Series Known From: Team Fortress 2007 Results: N/A The popular PC game gets in two characters. Here’s the first! After watching Pikachu get to Round 4 last year (how in the hell gamefaqs augh), there’s no doubt he loses this match unless everyone hates him again. Yeah, he has to deal with Ike, but we’ve seen Pikachu beat Tidus, Vivi, a Dante-weakened Leon, a Leon-weakened Dante, and even performed well with Luigi in a poll. I just don’t see how Ike of all characters holds him back SFF-wise. Not only does Pika have the whole Smash series to draw support from, while Ike only has Brawl, but Pika also has Pokemon, and before you even bring up Lucario, remember when Pikachu was introduced in the series and his role in it. As for second, Ike is a good pick. He and Pika have BRAWLFEAR to boost them, so I don’t think Ike will be losing to Duke Nukem or Gordon Freeman again. But I’m not picking Ike, I’m picking one of the surprise performers of 2007, Arthas. I honestly didn’t expect much from him last year, and I figured all he would do is hurt Diablo enough to allow KOS-MOS into Round 2. Well, it turns out Arthas actually got some support and beat Diablo. The two still killed each other, allowing KOS-MOS to advance, but that performance stuck with me. Yeah, KOS-MOS looked like crap this year, but Arthas has Warcraft and he’s in a WoW-expansion that’s being heavily promoted. This is his time. So if Arthas can get a lot of Diablo’s support (I don’t see why he couldn’t, because Blizzard fanboys flock to Blizzard games like HM and Tran flock to those dirty Zack Fair websites), he’s got second place easy. Ike will be hurt enough by Pikachu’s presence (plus the guy couldn’t beat Duke and Gordon and I doubt Brawl will boost him too much) and I don’t see Spy doing any major damage. Ugh, I feel dirty putting support behind Blizzard for once. I swear if it lets me down this time then I will RAGE. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Pikachu > Arthas Moltar’s Prediction is: Pikachu: 36% - Arthas: 26% - Ike: 24% - Spy: 14% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Man, it seems like Brawl has the entire roster in this thing. This match bothered me a bit back during the bracket period, because I couldn't decide on Ike or Arthas. After seeing the "effects" of Brawl from other characters in this contest I think sticking with Arthas was the right choice here. Ike did well enough for himself last year, and he should do better with Brawl considering it's his first real game to most of the site and he's not just an announcement anymore. But with Pikachu hanging around the poll some of that support -- be it Brawl or Nintendo -- is going to disappear. Ike probably won't be hurt too much, but I think it'll be enough to let Arthas cruise to a win. Of all the Blizzard characters not named Diablo, Arthas is probably the one to be worth something. He seems to be all over Warcraft and has a cool enough design to get votes outside of the hardcore Blizzard base. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:10:28 PM | message detail |
| I can't remember whether or not he managed to beat
Diablo last year, but they were more or less even. He would have
advanced past KOS-MOS had Diablo not been there, probably pretty easy
at that. With Nintendo characters not dominating the contest like some
figured, along with some Nintendo SFF, and Arthas being unique here I
think he'll advance on pretty easily. Pikachu shouldn't have any
problems taking first in this one even with Ike after the way he
cruised past Tidus last year -- who would take care of this group no
problem. Prediction: Pikachu - 31% ; Arthas - 29% ; Ike - 23% ; Spy - 17% Bracket: Pikachu > Arthas Vote: Arthas Yoblazer’s Analysis For being one of the most debated matches of the first round, this thing, for whatever reason, ain't very fun to write about. But I'll write about it, anyway. This is because my loyalty is to you, the reader, not those entrenched Washington bureaucrats and I guarantee that ok even I won't be able to pad this thing; let's just roll and end the pain. We have Pikachu (Pokemon, Smash), Ike (Fire Emblem, Brawl), Arthas (Warcraft 3, WoW: Wrath of the Lich King), and Spy (Team Fortress 2, Just For Men Suit Warehouse). Who wins? Wish I knew! But hey, lemme give you my best prediction just in case. I think Pikachu will win this match, but given all the craziness we've seen with Nintendo characters so far, I can't even say that with a great degree of certainty. However, his 2007 performance, where he not only took advantage of fanbase splits when the need arose, but also demonstrated some impressive legitimate strength, warrants confidence. Unlike some people (feel the aura my ass) Pikachu is a Pokemon that can actually draw some ****ing votes from the fanbase, and he's been one of Nintendo's most visible faces for years and years. I think he'll need these factors tonight, because he's up against someone who I feel will challenge him well for the Smash support. That challenger is Ike, a Fire Emblem star and one of the new entrants in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Nintendo's tumultuous fighting juggernaut. Now, before singing Ike's praises, I must first mention that the new Brawl guys we've seen so far (Wario, Lucario, Meta Knight, and Diddy) have performed respectably only once, bombing hard three times. Luckily for Ike, that lone respectable performance came from one of only the few Brawlers more popular among the fanbase than he is. Apart from Snake and Meta Knight, no one has been embraced more warmly by the Brawl community than Ike (hell yes, I'm calling him more popular than Sonic among this fanbase). I think it will help him leech Smash support from Pikachu. This, coupled with his surprisingly decent performance from last year, should have Ike doing well. I do not, however, think it will be enough for him to advance. Enter: Arthas Menethil, star of the Warcraft series and a man who won my heart last year. As soon as Arthas defeated Diablo (the only Blizzard character we thought would ever have a lick of strength), I told myself I'd seriously consider taking him if the opportunity arose. Well, it arose alright, and I'm going with Arthas. Not much needs to be said here. He beat the most recognizable name and character from his own company (please don't say there was no SFF there please don't please don't please don't). This year, the tables are turned. There's no SFF to hurt Arthas, but there's some mighty fine Nintendo SFF to help him. He's also a beneficiary of Wrath of the Lich King hype. You know the new WoW patch coming out that's being promoted all over the Internet? Yeah, that's Arthas. He's the Lich King, himself. You know that insanely badass dude holding the insanely badass sword on all Lich King ads? That's Arthas. He has that same picture tonight. Oooooh man that makes me tingly in too many wrong places. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:11:08 PM | message detail |
| I'm loving Arthas's chances here. Going up against
two guys embattled in a fanbase split is always a good thing, and doing
so when you have your own devoted fanbase, hype, and a hugely appealing
picture is an even better thing. I'm expecting Arthas to beat Ike
comfortably, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up challenging
Pikachu. Fourth guy's Spy. He is a man in a well tailored suit and ninja mask. I love the video game industry. Arthas Menethil - 30% Ike - 26% Pikachu - 32% Spy - 12% Lopen’s Analysis My original idea on this match was that Arthas looked decent through Diablo last year (SFF or not, he still beat him which to me implies he has a good little fanbase) and that Ike was kind of weak last year... Gordon Freeman and Duke Nukem? Please. Oh how the passing of the contest changes things, though. The first: Duke Nukem impresses. I think this is just a fluke at the time... Gordon Freeman and Ike seemed like weak competition, so really a win over them wasn't impressing me that much. That was not the end, though. The second: KOS-MOS disappoints. I know picking her was an upset choice to be sure, but man, she was still supposed to make it close based off of last year. I'm not sure if that means anything for Diablo/Arthas, but it certainly doesn't make them look any better, as they were both beaten by her by a good 3%. The third: Gordon Freeman looks like a beast against Scorpion. Now... to me, this isn't necessarily because of Gordon's merit. Looking at Balthier's percentage in the match, it's quite possible that Scorpion just flopped big time. But... it's hard for me to undoubtedly write it off as "Scorpion sucks this year" because of Duke Nukem's antics earlier in the year. Also... we all thought Balthier was going to be worth more than fodder last year... maybe he decided to get it in gear this year? Not likely, but not the most crazy thing we've seen. Anyway, there's more evidence here to support Ike being better than fodder last year... so I'm not going to turn a blind eye to it. Now add to this the fact that he is at worst a top 3 on the most popular new characters in Smash, and you've got bad mojo just waiting to happen. If Ike was 4REAL last year... it's nothing Arthas can stop... Lich King or not. It's nothing the Spy can stop, with his fortress of teams. It's nothing Pikachu can stop. Pikachu is a steep mountain to climb, but with nothing to leech the casual vote? No badass that ranks above fodder? We like Ike in this match. We definitely like Ike. Next round is a different story with Alucard in the mix... Pikachu might hold out a bit better. But for now, all hail Ike, who is going to be the story of the first round owning Pikachu's face by hitting it with his truck-blade. (I have Pikachu > Arthas in my bracket, for the record) Lopen's Prediction Ike – 36.12% Pikachu – 31.75% Arthas – 20.08% Spy – 13.05% (maybe you deserve more cred... Team Fortress... we'll see) Transience’s Analysis this is the match that's given me more fits than any other. let's start with Pikachu. this dude was so underrated last year that he's now overrated. Pikachu is mid-tier when it comes to strength. some people think he's really strong now because of one of the luckiest paths last year - two Square characters, two Square characters again, and then three Capcom characters. Leon Kennedy beat Pikachu by like 10% before the weird fanbase split in the Dante match. I don't really know what to make of Pikachu, but I do know that he isn't super-strong. he seems to benefit from this format a lot because no one can anti-vote it, but it's not going to crush everything here, I don't think. that said, it almost definitely takes first. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:11:33 PM | message detail |
| Spy... I thought he would be trash, but we've seen
two Orange Box characters exceed expectations so far, so I won't be too
surprised if he pulls some 10-15% here. TF2 is about as niche as it
gets, but that fanbase supports their characters to the end, that's for
sure. now then, Ike and Arthas. I change my mind on this match every day, and it seems like every match relates to this one in some weird way. instead of writing an ocean of text, I'm just gonna post the points for and against each: Ike: + a very popular Brawl character + was pretty decent last year, coming close to beating Gordon and Duke Nukem, and unlike others wasn't a hugely hyped Brawl character but instead just an update on a website; should get the biggest boost from Brawl of all the newcomers + Gordon, Duke Nukem and Guybrush have all exceeded expectations in their round 1 matches, leading some to believe the entire fourpack was underrated in strength - has another Brawl character in the match with him in Pikachu - Brawl-only characters - Lucario, Wario, Diddy Kong - have kinda flopped this year relative to expectations. Meta-Knight did all right, even though he was a distant third to Ryu and the Block, so we'll call him a push but everyone else has looked kinda bad. Arthas: + impressive round 1 match last year, beating out Diablo and coming somewhat close to KOS-MOS despite there being two Blizzard characters in the poll + should be more popular this year due to all the hype surrounding the new World of Warcraft expansion + is clearly the most independent of the characters in this poll while Ike's got a yellow rat to suck a lot of his support - World of Warcraft isn't all that popular on this website, and WC3 can only mean so much. there's a sense of "can Arthas actually break 25% in a match?" here, and he might need it in order to advance. - are we so sure about "Blizzard SFF"? Diablo fans may not automatically vote for Arthas here. all said, I've got Arthas here, but not with much confidence. I feel like Ike might be pretty good due to being so much fun to use in Brawl. stickin' with Arthas though. I fight for my friends others vote for yellow rat the lich king skates by transience's prediction: Pikachu with 37.33%, Arthas with 25.45%, Ike with 23.89%, Spy with 13.33% Ngamer’s Analysis So anyways I was thinking about that absolutely absurd start for Falcon, and wondering when we'd ever seen something like it before. And then it hit me- Soul Calibur/Kingdom Hearts! KH was a Square RPG during the height of Square's dominance on the site that had sold 10 million copies and dominated the FAQ listings most of the year- we were expecting it to win with about 65% of the vote. Yet the poll came up and, weird, SC was hanging in there... then a minute later and SC was somehow KILLING! Now the connection here is of course that SC/KH kicked off at the conclusion of StarCraft vs Halo, arguably the most heavily rallied matchup of all time to that point, and one that came down to the final minutes. Much like StarCraft and Halo fans not caring a bit about KH, why would the L-Blockers being rallied to hold back Ryu's powerful second night vote care about Alucard? They wouldn't, and between Falcon dominating that match pic, being a fan favorite in both SSB and Melee, and having a small meme of his own regarding his Falcon PAAAUNCH, now his crazy start makes alot more sense. (Unfortunately there's another character with a weak ASV and a powerful second night vote that figures to be cut out at the knees by Block rallying- guy by the name of Crono. How gross is it that only WCC or Sandbag have any chance of causing a Block loss from here out?) But enough on the Block, we've got another potentially super-wacky result ahead of us today! Let's hop right in. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:13:39 PM | message detail |
|
Last Known Values Pikachu - 24.59% (2007) Arthas - 16.78% (2007) Ike - 19.51% (2007) Spy - new You might as well throw that Arthas value right out the window. If you don't think that he and Diablo flat out devastated each other, and that left alone either would have crushed KOS-MOS with ease, then I'm afraid we can no longer be friends. The victory over Diablo makes it clear that the guy has a dedicated WC3 fanbase, and I see no reason for them to abandon him here. Then you add to that his being the face of the game receiving the biggest media blitz since Halo 3, AND drawing the perfect box art pic from that game for this poll, and its easy to see why I was willing to go out on a limb and make him my "upset special" pick for second place in this one. ...except as time went on Ike kept losing more and more support, until my upset pick had become the Guru consensus by the time brackets locked! What happened? Well I think that in addition to realizing how solid Arthas had performed in '07 (given the circumstances), people also started to realize what a grim situation Ike was looking at here in terms of LFF. Between Mudkip and Pikachu and Mewtwo, 2007 made it pretty evident that well-loved Pokemon from the R/B/Y and G/S/C era can hang in there with anyone in this format, even Nintendo heavy hitters like Ganon and Luigi and Bowser. And sure Ike is a Brawl casual favorite, but heck, so is Pikachu, and the guy ALSO held that title in almost undisputed fashion in both SSB and Melee. How could poor Ike be expected to perform much above the fodder line in the face of all that? I don't think he should be, and its unfortunate that what will end up being credited as 'Brawl Newcomer Weakness' will actually be, at least in this case, just a matter of Pikachu pulling from too many fanbases to be held back in this format. As for Spy, well, Portal has already looked solid and Half-Life has already looked quite respectable itself, so I don't see why TF2 wouldn't continue the trend tomorrow. Picking him to beat an LFF weakened Ike is pushing it IMO, especially when I don't think Spy is going to perform at the level of his more iconic co-TF2er the Heavy, but I wouldn't be shocked if he hung around that level before the SSB morning vote kicked in. In summation, I felt fairly confident about Arthas over Ike earlier today. After seeing this match pic, I'm upgrading that to "very confident." Now the fun will be in seeing where this wildcard named Arthas ends up- will the WoW regions rally him all the way past Pika to set him up beautifully for a Round Three appearance? I wouldn't count it out! After converting those thoughts to numbers, my pot has been stirred and it produced the following numbers: Pikachu - 33.99% Arthas Menethil - 28.14% Ike - 23.17% Spy - 14.69% Those look so good that I'm drooling! Ngamer Says: Pikachu > Arthas Guest’s Analysis - Biolizard This is one of the more interesting matches of round one, if only because the two main contenders for second have probably the most debatable strengths in the entire contest. In this corner, Arthas Menethil! Not failing to impress last year, Arthas gave a relatively surprising performance. Despite not winning, he proved to us that he was not the Diablo fodder we thought he was. Though he lost to KOS-MOS, could SFF have held him back? If he's stronger than Diablo, at any rate, it's possible that true potential is hidden within. Next up is Ike. Failing to pass to round two, like Arthas, Ike actually disappointed, considering he had a Brawl announcement and supposedly full Nintendo support thrown being thrown behind him. After a close match with Gordon and Duke, many people were quick to write off Ike as low-midcard/high fodder. But with both characters having excellent performances this year, anything could happen. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/2/2008 8:14:16 PM | message detail |
| Here we have Pikachu. The infamous Pokemon tore
into the competition last year, supposedly riding one wild wave of SFF
which would lead to him bringing Luigi down with him in round four.
Basically the only proof we'd ever need that Pokemon was heavily
antivoted in earlier years, Pikachu looks to pick up where he left off
and take first in this match. Lastly, we have the Spy. Our first Team Fortress 2 representative looks to have an uphill battle ahead of him. Considering how well characters featured in The Orange Box have been doing, is it possible for the Spy to impress? Or will he be the first sign of weakness in the Box? As for the match, first place is a relatively simple pick. Pikachu was, by far, the best of the three returning characters last year. Seeing as there's little to no indication of Team Fortress being as big a threat as Portal or Half-Life, we can at least write off the Spy as far as advancing goes. No, the true battle lies between Ike and Arthas. These two characters have changed so much since the last contest, it's hard to pinpoint their exact strength. Arthas is the main "boss" of the newest WoW expansion, to my understanding. His face is plastered on every advertisement for the game. He's been getting a lot more exposure since last year. Meanwhile, Ike has become a huge fan favorite amongst Brawlers, and is considered one of the most used characters in the game's online. Ike has even had a new game come out since then. Unlike the other Brawl characters we've seen so far, Ike actually has a following coming from the game. Coupled with his existing fanbase, he should be a force. However, talk of the town is that Ike will suffer an SFF beating at the hands of Pikachu. Simply being a Nintendo character with another Nintendo character in the poll does not SFF make, I believe. While I don't deny that Ike will lose some support, you have to consider that the Pokemon and Fire Emblem fanbases probably don't overlap at all. If they do, it's hardly enough to matter. As far as Brawl support? As I've said, Ike is a huge casual favorite. He's one of the most popular characters in the game. Pikachu, while frequently used, probably doesn't have as much of a "presence" as Ike does. But then we have Arthas, who's nowhere to go but up since last year. With his image around most every major gaming website, and now being part of the WoW universe, Arthas looks to make serious gains. But did he have much strength in the first place? Correct me if I'm wrong, but with all Diablo votes going to Arthas, he only barely eeks out KOS-MOS. That simply doesn't sound very appealing to me. Am I underrating Lich King boosts? Possibly. But in the end, I feel Pikachu > Ike makes just a bit more sense. I won't be shocked either way.... Unless of course SPYFEAR No sympathy here. Pikachu fights for his friends. That means you, Ike-y. Bio's prediction: Pikachu > Ike Bio's Bracket: Pikachu > Ike Percentage Predix: Pikachu: 34% Ike: 27% Arthas: 23% Spy: 16% Crew Consensus: Pika > Arthas is the majority, but Lopen has Ike > Pika and Bio has Pika > Ike. well then |
