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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 583

voltch | Posted 10/2/2008 12:44:28 PM | message detail
typical,we get weeks of Brawlflop and now brawlfear starts?
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 12:49:26 PM | message detail
If this was Brawlfear then Diddy would be winning, though using the same reason why Fox beat Falcon by so much Falcon is the more fan favourite than Diddy.

We'll see tomorrow.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
wavedash101 | Posted 10/2/2008 12:50:11 PM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia was ported to the PS2, but it's fair to say that Kratos received the lion's share of his strength from the Gamecube version. It was pretty hyped and sold well (considering it was one of the only Gamecube RPGs at the time). While the fanbases don't gel, I can certainly understand console SFF playing a part in this.

It was only on the PS2 in Japan, which is a moot point in this contest

And just to highlight how crappy the GC was in Japan, the PS2 version outsold the GC version quite handily
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 10/2/2008 12:50:13 PM | message detail
Brawlfear is now IWasInMeleeFear
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"Dreaming of one day flying, it practices by leaping off cliffs every day." ~Bagon's Pokedex entry
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 12:53:08 PM | message detail
I can't wait for the match pic. There's like 5 different Ikes Bacon can choose. Considering Marth crushed his four-pack with a non-SSB pic, it shouldn't matter much, but still.

...And two Arthas pics. One good, one bad. The choice is obvious, but it's Bacon.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 12:54:22 PM | message detail
Hey, you might not have realized this, but we aren't the only people who nominate characters. The average contest-goer just wants to see the characters they like get in. Just because we pay attention to the results much more than the target audience of the contests doesn't mean that we should have the right to judge them for who they choose to nominate. Your elitism is sickening.

I kinda agree with you with newcomers.

But man, with some characters when they just do SO BAD time in and time out. Have Guybrush nominators ever heard of the concept of "mercy killing" I mean really. I stopped nominating Zelos after that nonsense last year, I didn't want to expose him to that humiliation again.

That being said I think my line for "you suck really bad never come back" is much lower than most people's. I'll still nominate crap like Lloyd Irving because I love the guy and he's strong enough to win a match given a reasonably favorable position.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 12:58:16 PM | message detail
Also, regarding Pika/Ike SFF:

It will not be in Pika's favor. Pikachu should still win by virtue of being inherently stronger, but Pokemon mostly separate from the rest of the Ninty fanbase and the SSB vote will favor Ike.

There will be LFF, yeah, but anyone expecting Ike to get completely sapped by Pikachu or even significantly hurt is in for a rude awakening.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 12:59:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, after seeing KOS-MOS disappoint and Duke/Gordon tear it up, I see no way Arthas beats Ike tomorrow.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:05:59 PM | message detail
I'm startign to think Meta Knight might h ave seemed stronger then he really is... because me, and I'm sure many others, voted for him only to get him to beat L Block. Since lots of people wanted L Block out, and Meta was the one to vote for to get him to lose.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 1:07:20 PM | message detail
I really doubt people not on the board think things through so strategically.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
red sox 777 | Posted 10/2/2008 1:13:51 PM | message detail
Considering 49% of brackets yesterday had L-Block taking first, I doubt many people outside this board even though MK had a chance. But I think it is something that could matter for later rounds. Voters are not completely oblivious to past results- L-Block is the best proof of that.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 48/56 --- T-48 (98 way)
Bracket: Alucard > Captain Falcon --- Vote: Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/2/2008 1:15:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, after seeing KOS-MOS disappoint and Duke/Gordon tear it up, I see no way Arthas beats Ike tomorrow.

Yeah I'm starting to think that too darn why didn't I trust my Mega Man is the pathetic bottom rung of the Noble Nine instinct after all
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:17:13 PM | message detail
Should be getting match pics pretty soon... This is honestly my most anticipated match pics because Arthas, more then any other character, I feel is totally dependant on getting the right match pic. If he gets some crappy pic related to WC3, he probably will lose to Ike.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 1:19:01 PM | message detail
WC3 pic will help him. Most of the Warcraft fanbase on this site comes from the RTS, as the dozens of terrible polls WoW has in its corner will tell you.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/2/2008 1:19:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, Warcraft 3 was total ass. It didn't sell a few million copies or anything.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 1:19:29 PM | message detail
If he gets that pic, I honestly apologize. I never thought Bacon might actually choose it when I made it, I just wanted filler for one of my mock pics. I figured 'hey, someone will make a good pic and all will be well.'

And then...Kefka.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:21:04 PM | message detail
I doubt he'd pick yours KP, since its not even Arthas. But there are likely pictures not submitted by B8ers too, that he may pick.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 1:21:57 PM | message detail
I doubt Bacon will be able to tell if it's Arthas or not, considering I couldn't. Unless he's played WC3 or something.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:22:15 PM | message detail
And I'm not saying WC3 is ass, its a great game. But I don't think Arthas can defeat Ike if its only his WC3 power. But alot of his power I'm assuming will come from WoW players who don't even know who he is, but recognize him as the Wrath of the Lich King guy from all the promos and in game promos of Arthas that use that Wotlk pic.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
Lopen | Posted 10/2/2008 1:23:06 PM | message detail
Well Kratos is "winning" the ASV over Diddy, like I thought he would.

Winning meaning not letting Diddy extend his lead any further, ha.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:23:09 PM | message detail
I doubt Bacon will be able to tell if it's Arthas or not, considering I couldn't. Unless he's played WC3 or something.

I'm assuming Bacon knows who Arthas is... his description of Hogger was tounge in cheek of how WoW players joke about him, so I'm assuming he actually knew who Hogger was.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
LordLockeRA | Posted 10/2/2008 1:49:22 PM | message detail
I wouldn't hold my breath of Arthas going anywhere. Blizzard tend to field flops.

Then again, it's really anyone's match. BRAWLFEAR's been getting laughed at as far as it's new participants goes (When WARIO'S arguably given the best performance of your group, something shady's going on in Smashtown) and this current match looks like a glowing neon sign for about how this next one will go- Ike is probably weaker outside Board 8 then Diddy, and unless CF's gotten some kind of supercrack WTH boost, Pikachu's probably a great deal stronger then Falcon.

Then there's the Spy. I'd have discounted him entirely at first, but between Brawlfear falling on it's face, GlaDOS's respectable performance against some strong competition, and Gordon GFNW Freeman actually giving Scorpion a fight, that Spy might be sipping on some Orange Juice (plus he's got the joke vote in the bag this match, being the internet's favorite running gag for the last twelve months- we'll see if they'll rally behind him, the Cube, or both.) Arthas has a chance, but after watching Diablo belly-flop outside of the Villain's contest and everyone else Blizzard proceeding to crater in their matches, reguardless of voting format, I can't put faith behind him to actually get the job done.

Pikachu's got first. After that, who knows anymore.
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Meeh. Whatever.
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:50:13 PM | message detail
35% on a noble 9 character for Diablo is a belly flop?
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 1:52:02 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Sonic_vs_Diablo_2005

Correction, 31.5%

Still, not bad...
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 1:52:33 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to this one, but I can't wait for it to be over so we can shut up about it.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 10/2/2008 1:53:22 PM | message detail
I think Spy will go down the same route as Kaim, though I don't know much about TF2 so what do I know.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 41/56 Today's Match: Alucard > Captain Falcon
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 2:27:00 PM | message detail
1. KOS MOS did not disappoint in any way shape or form. People had this idea in their heads that Frog always has to have a close match, and when he beat the crap out of someone he was supposed to beat the crap out of, people started blaming it on the person he beat. Take Frog/KOS-MOS stats from any year and you get a similar result.

2. How are people saying that today improves Ike's chances? The Melee characters have all done decently and all the new Brawl characters have bombed. Lucario and Diddy are the Midna of 2008, I can't see Ike being any different.

3. Duke/Gordon didn't make sense last year, and it makes even less sense this year. Using those 2 to gauge Ike is like using Shadow/Mario 2k3 to gauge Zidane this year.
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 2:30:33 PM | message detail
rog (2005c) VS KOS-MOS (2005c)

Frog has a strength of 24.97.
KOS-MOS has a strength of 21.30.

Frog wins with 57.35% of the vote!
A win of 14,866 with 101,142 total votes cast.

Last time we have accurate stats on these 2 that wasn't 4way format

I don't know why people expected it to be so close and why it was such a disappointment for Kosmos to not be close.
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/2/2008 2:31:22 PM | message detail
all hail rog
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/2/2008 2:33:16 PM | message detail
I wouldn't hold my breath of Arthas going anywhere. Blizzard tend to field flops.

In 1 v 1 yes, in 4 way they've got the hardcore base to inflict some damage and no SFF to hold back Arthas either. To be honest I'm more worried about Arthas overshooting and passing Pikachu than I am of Ike beating him.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/2/2008 2:34:37 PM | message detail
Frog (2005c) VS Axel (2006c)

Frog has a strength of 24.97.
Axel has a strength of 23.15.

Frog wins with 53.64% of the vote!
A win of 7,764 with 106,527 total votes cast.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
jonthomson | Posted 10/2/2008 2:38:31 PM | message detail
In 1 v 1 yes, in 4 way they've got the hardcore base to inflict some damage and no SFF to hold back Arthas either.

this is the thing, in this format the hardcore needs to be that much smaller to be a threat
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Obama '08 imo
red sox 777 | Posted 10/2/2008 2:44:23 PM | message detail
2. How are people saying that today improves Ike's chances? The Melee characters have all done decently and all the new Brawl characters have bombed. Lucario and Diddy are the Midna of 2008, I can't see Ike being any different.

Intuitively, Ike's position in the Smash fanbase resembles that of Falcon to me, and Pikachu that of Diddy. Ike/Falcon/Marth/Falco are all popular choices in Smash, while Wario/Lucario/Diddy all likely get more support from outside the series. And I have been on the Melee > Brawl train from the start. Something I am a little concerned about is that Ike apparently isn't really used for competitive play, while Marth/Falco/Falcon all were. The impact of competitive players is underestimated in this topic and on this board- who is more likely to vote for an SSB character: a competitive player or a casual player?

3. Duke/Gordon didn't make sense last year, and it makes even less sense this year. Using those 2 to gauge Ike is like using Shadow/Mario 2k3 to gauge Zidane this year.

Both Duke and Gordon impressed this year, and this is not comparable to Mario/Shadow- Shadow has never, in any other match, looked anywhere near as strong as he looked against Mario that one time.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 48/56 --- T-48 (98 way)
Bracket: Alucard > Captain Falcon --- Vote: Captain Falcon
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/2/2008 2:45:57 PM | message detail
In 1 v 1 yes, in 4 way they've got the hardcore base to inflict some damage and no SFF to hold back Arthas either. To be honest I'm more worried about Arthas overshooting and passing Pikachu than I am of Ike beating him.

Glad to see that somebody has common sense here.

And Axel/Frog being close was only a surprise if you thought there was something wrong with Mega Man in 2006. I figured he had a shot, though I didn't really seriously consider it.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/2/2008 2:46:13 PM | message detail
That isn't to say that Pikachu is anywhere near Diddy's level by the way- Pikachu has way more non-Smash support.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 48/56 --- T-48 (98 way)
Bracket: Alucard > Captain Falcon --- Vote: Captain Falcon
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 2:47:41 PM | message detail
And nobody's arguing that Ike will take first.

I am! I say Ike wins tomorrow!

Well, I don't really have any solid arguments, but it was mostly a gut instinct pick. I've felt good about it from the start, and I was kinda surprised it wasn't a more popular pick. Of course, Ike could still lose, but he's certainly one of the guys who should benefit a lot from Brawl. I could see Meta Knight possibly not benefiting as much because he'd already been hyped up in the trailer, while Ike hadn't yet been hyped up, though he had been announced. Still, I think Meta Knight did boost somewhat.

And I'm still wondering if Diablo and Arthas really LFF'd each other last year, or if they were really just that bad with the format. I've wondered it from the day of that match. I guess tomorrow will go a long way in answering that question.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 2:49:37 PM | message detail
in 4 way they've got the hardcore base to inflict some damage

Except Blizzard has done nothing but flop for two years in this format.

The impact of competitive players is underestimated in this topic and on this board- who is more likely to vote for an SSB character: a competitive player or a casual player?

A casual player since more of them exist.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
red sox 777 | Posted 10/2/2008 2:58:20 PM | message detail
Another argument for Ike taking first:

First, I can't really see Arthas getting over 25% here. The vast majority of Gamefaqs dislikes World of Warcraft, and I'm not convinced LFF with Diablo hurt him all that badly. He should have a very loyal fanbase, as static as a non-joke character's fanbase can be, even, but I don't think it's all that large.

In 1v1 matches, Pikachu is hurt by anti-voting: this is probably one reason he did so well last year in this format, with anti-votes distributed among 3 opponents. Also, Pikachu has fewer anti-voters than a few years ago, but they must still exist, and who will they vote for? Arthas? No, only the Warcraft fanbase will vote for him. Spy? He's probably not going to get that many votes in total. That leaves Ike in position to fight Pikachu almost as if it were a 1v1 (in that neither Arthas nor Spy will impact them very much thanks to lack of much fanbase overlap).
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 48/56 --- T-48 (98 way)
Bracket: Alucard > Captain Falcon --- Vote: Captain Falcon
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 2:59:36 PM | message detail
At this point I could see Ike>Spy happening.

I have a feeling something weird is going to happen with this match. Not sure what it is, but Spy is as good a guess as Captain Falcon, I suppose.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
red sox 777 | Posted 10/2/2008 3:02:24 PM | message detail
A casual player since more of them exist.

Sure, but suppose we have, say, Cloud, a TotA character, a top tier character popular with competitive players, and a low tier character popular with casuals. Who takes second? The competitive players will mostly stay with their character, while most of the casuals will abandon theirs for Cloud. Is that enough to overcome the gap between the number of casual and competitive players? I don't know, but competitive smashers are worth a lot more than this topic gives them credit for- which is approximately zero.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 48/56 --- T-48 (98 way)
Bracket: Alucard > Captain Falcon --- Vote: Captain Falcon
_Hogger_ | Posted 10/2/2008 3:11:35 PM | message detail
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/16Match.jpg
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http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 3:12:11 PM | message detail
Anyone get the feeling that this is one of those matches where the casuals burn the board? I'd think that Falcon was the favorite for second place here, bracket-wise.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 3:13:33 PM | message detail
Oh yes, the casuals are going to destroy us in this match. I saw a lot of people outside of B8 picking Falcon.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 3:13:37 PM | message detail
definitely.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 3:14:02 PM | message detail
though I bet CF has a higher prediction percentage than Alucard.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/2/2008 3:14:10 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-16.jpg

Nice job, Bacon, using the worst Ike pic there was. *sigh*

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 3:14:19 PM | message detail
Welp, Arthas got his pic. There's no excuse for him now, especially since Ike didn't get a Brawl pic.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/2/2008 3:15:06 PM | message detail
And got damn, Spy looks cool as hell. He might surprise people because LORDY LORD I HAVE A SUDDEN URGE TO VOTE FOR HIM.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 10/2/2008 3:16:31 PM | message detail
Arthas got what he needed. he has no excuses now.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 10/2/2008 3:17:20 PM | message detail
Nothing wrong with that Ike pic. It's what he got last year, wasn't it? *checks*

Yep. Besides, it's not like he's completely unrecognizable. Marth was in the same boat anyway.

And while I guess that Arthas pic looks cool, nothing about it makes me want to vote for him. I wonder if it'll really draw non-WoWers to vote for him. Pikachu stands out like a sore thumb, by the way.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
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