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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 581

Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2008 11:16:48 AM | message detail
A very real possibility, but once again, that begs the question "why did Frank do surprisingly well against her yesterday?" I guess one could argue that Frank was taking advantage of an Xbox fanbase split with Kaim, but eh, I'll have a hard time buying that.

If he was splitting with Kaim, he would have looked weaker in comparison to Amastasdrawerareru. The only explanation there is Ammy and Corno dropped or Frank boosted from his Wii game more than Ammy did.
meche313 | Posted 10/1/2008 11:17:14 AM | message detail
You're right Yo, characters stay constant during the course of the years..

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hailEC | Posted 10/1/2008 11:17:20 AM | message detail
More like his night vote was surprisingly weaker.

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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2008 11:18:00 AM | message detail
I'm almost always down on Crono, but his day vote was surprisingly not awful this time. I think he's stronger.

That's because he was against an obscure current gen JRPG character, an obscure last-gen... wolf thing, and a zombie killer.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/1/2008 11:18:15 AM | message detail
I don't think Dead Rising's ported to the Wii yet, actually...can somebody confirm this?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:20:08 AM | message detail
More like his night vote was surprisingly weaker.

Always a possibility, but why would his night vote have fallen to the abysmal levels of his day vote? The night crowd is basically the last bastion of a "base" that Crono's had the last few years.

Or to put it another way, Crono's in serious trouble of losing to Ryu next round if that's the case. I don't think that's likely.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/1/2008 11:21:08 AM | message detail
I don't think Dead Rising's ported to the Wii yet, actually...can somebody confirm this?

Not yet, couple more months.

Anyway, KH, you bring up some good points, but Crono was against a trio that just smacked of weaksauce. I really was expecting 50% out of him, especially when I saw Kaim lay a fart out of the gate, but he just couldn't muster it. Anyway, it's a moot point like Turtle says. L-Block and Samus will clearly be the ones emerging from that match. Crono and Vincent may once again give us a show, but it doesn't seem as big when they'll be fighting to keep their asses out of last place.
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Guess how many teens | Posted 10/1/2008 11:21:14 AM | message detail
So how much of the brackets will have L Block advancing? I think it's going to be a lot, like 80% or something.
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2008 11:22:26 AM | message detail
OR LIKE IN EVERY OTHER CASE HIS VOTING TRENDS DEPEND ON HIS COMPETITION!
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hailEC | Posted 10/1/2008 11:22:27 AM | message detail
I'm just having fun mindlessly assuming Crono sucks based off face value and it being what I want to hear.

Ryu > L-Block next round book it.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:23:49 AM | message detail
OR LIKE IN EVERY OTHER CASE HIS VOTING TRENDS DEPEND ON HIS COMPETITION!

lol bt
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/1/2008 11:25:34 AM | message detail
And Ryu creeps over 600. I'm pretty interested in what happens 30 mins from now...
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Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2008 11:26:07 AM | message detail
If you put Crono against Kefka, he doesn't suddenly have a great day vote, he was just up against someone with a worse one.... how do you people not understand this? Mega Man has a great day vote, but in 2005 because he was against Yoshi and Sonic, it looked terrible. Now for some reason he has a reputation as a night character.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:26:51 AM | message detail
L-Block should have a darn good shot at coming back here, although Lloyd proved to us that the morning vote is not necessarily indicative of the afterschool vote.

...but seriously, what happened in that match? lol lloyd
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hailEC | Posted 10/1/2008 11:28:19 AM | message detail
I'd be pretty surprised if L came back actually... (actually I wouldn't because VOTE STUFFERS), but uh, yeah the morning has always been by leaps and bounds Ryu's worst time, and L couldn't do much with it.

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all hail ec your lord and savior
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:29:42 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2542&num=2

hey look it's Mega Man barely gaining in the day against Ryu
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Ngamer64 | Posted 10/1/2008 11:33:39 AM | message detail
Hmmm, I don't know, Ryu has had some serious ASV trouble in the past...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2870&type=2&seconds=900

True, in that case it was mainly just a case of Mewtwo being a beast with the kiddies, but still.

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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 10/1/2008 11:34:31 AM | message detail
I don't care what everyone else says, Sandbag's not going far with his competition and based purely on Brawl strength.

Good point, Mega.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:36:00 AM | message detail
The other thing is that we just haven't seen many large relative shifts with the ASV this year, at least considering some of the landslide trends we had last year. Then again, with a lead of only 600 it doesn't really need to be a landslide.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/1/2008 11:39:39 AM | message detail
You guys are forgetting how bad the block's day vote is...it lost 1500 votes to Snake during the day in round 4, and I'm pretty sure it also lost the day vote to Solid **** in round 3. Ryu would need an epic day vote tanking to lose this match.
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/1/2008 11:40:45 AM | message detail
...and right as I type that, the block cuts Ryu.

augh
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:42:34 AM | message detail
This is a different Block, though. In its R3 match with Snake, it lost around 5.7% or so from the first hour 'till the end of the match. Right now it's lost less than 1.5% of what it had in the first hour.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:44:23 AM | message detail
Although considering this shooting up right now is coming at Meta Knight's expense... heck, I actually don't know what to make of that.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 10/1/2008 11:44:52 AM | message detail
oh god oh god oh god
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/1/2008 11:45:28 AM | message detail
3 cuts in a row, looks like I was right about Ryu and 600. Hopefully that'll be his peak.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/1/2008 11:48:50 AM | message detail
Another big cut, 50 precisely.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 10/1/2008 11:49:11 AM | message detail
n_n
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/1/2008 11:50:35 AM | message detail
Oh snap, looks like someone's aiming to score a Tetris!
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hailEC | Posted 10/1/2008 11:51:13 AM | message detail
are you joking me
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/1/2008 11:56:52 AM | message detail
oh
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transience | Posted 10/1/2008 11:57:07 AM | message detail
this is a new Block this year. can't wait to see if it can get 40% next match. that would be pretty amazing.

Ryu's after-school vote isn't awful though, it's the morning vote that is. his after-school vote is just mediocre.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2008 11:58:59 AM | message detail
...

...

...L-Block = Lloyd CONFIRMED
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transience | Posted 10/1/2008 11:59:16 AM | message detail
I had the exact same thought.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/1/2008 11:59:20 AM | message detail
L-Block with the shortest after school vote in history this guy just keeps bringing new game to the table
HaRRicH | Posted 10/1/2008 12:00:52 PM | message detail
L-Block > Wesker then...

...but then Kefka smokes L's stuffing and Crono's destroyed Kefka before!



theres hope yet my friends
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hellfire104 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:02:41 PM | message detail
Ryu's after school vote is weak. He ought to be the underdog for the last 6-7 hours of the match.

IF he doesnt have at least 800 votes on L-Block, hes going to lose.
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Contest Point Total: 38 Rank: 92%tile, Tied for 3346
This Pick: L-Block > Ryu
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:02:52 PM | message detail

HaRRicH (#385)
L-Block > Wesker then...

...but then Kefka smokes L's stuffing and Crono's destroyed Kefka before!



theres hope yet my friends


L-Block > Link > Mario > Crono > Snake > L-Block

L-Block's in a favorable position to beat L-Block!
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/1/2008 12:03:53 PM | message detail
Ryu > Link confirmed.
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Lopen | Posted 10/1/2008 12:07:13 PM | message detail
Guess L-Block wins the contest. I suppose the possibility is there that it's not static anymore since it seems to have normal voting trends. *shrug* I'd imagine the first opportunity for it to go out because of that is in the quarterfinals with Crono/Vincent/Samus there, though. Though hell, Ryu is beating it barely, if it's not static anymore I guess it can lose next round. I'm not betting on it, though.

Of course there's always the possibility that it gains momentum and/or the Dog is hurting it, in which case you can forget it losing ever.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/1/2008 12:09:05 PM | message detail
Cuts
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/1/2008 12:14:09 PM | message detail
Gains
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:15:45 PM | message detail
Ping
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:15:57 PM | message detail
Pong
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LordOfDabu | Posted 10/1/2008 12:16:42 PM | message detail
It wouldn't surprise me if the only reason L-block is doing as well as it is today is due to bracket votes. :/ (Much like how Bowser/Ganon did after the villains contest).

I disagree with the premise that it is a static entity (assuming I'm understanding what that means correctly). If that were the case, its percentage would vary wildly as the vote totals change (there were a lot more votes than normal in the final match last year), but instead the number of votes that it received was what changed drastically, not percentage. Most of its final strength last year was external and I would be surprised to see it again. But maybe that's me just being blinded by hope!
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:24:45 PM | message detail
500 vote barrier DESTROYED
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:25:17 PM | message detail
Now these are the updates I'm talking about.

Yeah, it doesn't really matter in the long run how L-Block does in this match, but it would be nice to go up a few spots on the Guru right now.
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hellfire104 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:25:38 PM | message detail
BOOOOOMMMMMM.

Next level: 400 vote barrier!
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Contest Point Total: 38 Rank: 92%tile, Tied for 3346
This Pick: L-Block > Ryu
transience | Posted 10/1/2008 12:28:32 PM | message detail
the idea of L winning the day vote against anything is totally different to last year. this is...something.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
RockMFR 5 | Posted 10/1/2008 12:30:16 PM | message detail
Meta Knight's looking pretty good now.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/1/2008 12:30:46 PM | message detail
OH ****

I have Ryu > the L. DAMMMIT GO RYU
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