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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 581

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:32:32 PM | message detail
Let's go ahead and make this intro neutral for PC reasons (Obama/Biden '08).

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/30/2008 9:32:55 PM | message detail
that damn l-block
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ExThaNemesis is the man.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:33:17 PM | message detail
Now this is a topic we can all get behind
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
transience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:38:17 PM | message detail
aww yeah Palin's gonna get owned in three days
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:38:34 PM | message detail
two days I guess

or one day now

argh I'm even stupider than she is
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:38:47 PM | message detail
the debate's on Thursday
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:39:05 PM | message detail
see
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 9:39:51 PM | message detail
Just you wait, L-Block will fall off *sobs*

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 9:40:21 PM | message detail
i don't recognize those characters what game are they in?
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Moltar Status: augh
L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52)
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:41:57 PM | message detail
Well, that 500 post was better than what I planned on saying.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Draco1214 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:42:25 PM | message detail
damn block
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"Men that are trapped by chains of 'maybe' can never reach their dreams!"
Explicit Content > me in the Guru
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:42:39 PM | message detail
SUPER HOPE BROS CHANGE
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 9:43:09 PM | message detail
L stalling at 34% is troubling though
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/30/2008 9:43:39 PM | message detail
She couldn't name a single important Supreme Court decision? lolololol

Also, the Power Hour's almost over. gogogo Ryu cuts....

hey, I can dream can't I?

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42/52 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Ryu (Street Fighter) > L-Block
charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:43:42 PM | message detail
At least Ryu is above 28%.

Time for bed, I need to dig a grave for my bracket in the morning.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 40/52 Today's Match: Ryu > Meta Knight
Seginustemple | Posted 9/30/2008 9:43:49 PM | message detail
I would hope an actual character can win the character battle this time, bland they may be :(
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
WhatTheDarn | Posted 9/30/2008 9:44:25 PM | message detail
Wow, after this match I'm going to be tied with only one other person for first place.
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"War is no reason to end a friendship." - Solid Snake
Panthera | Posted 9/30/2008 9:44:38 PM | message detail
Well, L Block at least makes my Cloud>Link final look good, if he goes on his tear again at least I have the right person in second place.
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A season of our stolen youth shall teach old hearts to break
~Primordial-The Coffin Ships
LShaped Tetris Block | Posted 9/30/2008 9:44:45 PM | message detail
y halo thar stats topic
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STILL SHAPED LIKE A BOOT TO KICK YOUR ASS!
The 2007 Character Battle Champion
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:45:08 PM | message detail
Pfft if my only options are L and Link i'll take the guy with less contests under his belt. Fortunately a certain character just wrapping up his final mission will be there as well !!
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2008 9:45:13 PM | message detail
Heh, the leaderboard is full of people who have Link winning the contest again.
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sig
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/30/2008 9:45:49 PM | message detail
Well, L Block at least makes my Cloud>Link final look good, if he goes on his tear again at least I have the right person in second place.

unfortunately that many more people are going to have him winning this year. =(
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ExThaNemesis is the man.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:45:53 PM | message detail

LShaped Tetris Block (#019)
y halo thar stats topic


Welcome, comrade!

Looks like Ryu's... Stalin!
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 9:46:05 PM | message detail
save_us.RYU

tie update now begins the overtaking
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Moltar Status: augh
L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:46:17 PM | message detail
Fortunately a certain character just wrapping up his final mission will be there as well !!

Yes, Sandbag's sacrifice shall never be forgotten.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:46:35 PM | message detail
L-Block needs to go up 100 the next update.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2008 9:46:39 PM | message detail
STALL
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hochimnih157 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:46:55 PM | message detail
Heh, the leaderboard is full of people who have Link winning the contest again.


All of them are idiots. Did they learn nothing last year?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55
Seginustemple | Posted 9/30/2008 9:47:13 PM | message detail
Snake winning would be so much more gratifying than anything else these contests have ever done.
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Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822
red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:47:27 PM | message detail
Ryu gets his first stall.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 46/52 --- T-18 (96 way)
Bracket: Ryu > L-Block --- Vote: Meta-Knight
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:47:55 PM | message detail
I just realized every big L-Block drop has been accompanied by a Dog boost. There's definitely SFF there.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
chaosarcher07 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:47:58 PM | message detail
Looking at this in terms of lead is silly unless the lead gets to an utterly unmanageable number.

how often does one look at a poll, see a 1300+ vote lead, and say "well this lead looks pretty managable."

Not to mention Meta Knight is plummeting pretty darned fast in terms of % as well.

Also nice stall by Ryu. Kind of surprising after two straight 30-40 vote updates by L.

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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=29
CBVII Current Score: 46/52
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:48:07 PM | message detail
15 minutes before Kratos and at a little over half the lead. Not bad, Ryu.
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Mustache...and green...
Panthera | Posted 9/30/2008 9:48:40 PM | message detail
unfortunately that many more people are going to have him winning this year. =(

I'm pretending the l-block pickers all screwed up everything else to deceive myself into thinking I'm not screwed.
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A season of our stolen youth shall teach old hearts to break
~Primordial-The Coffin Ships
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2008 9:48:42 PM | message detail
He stalled this early? Wow.
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:48:48 PM | message detail
Ryu's stalling L pretty well all things considering. Snake couldn't manage a tie until the power hour was over.

If any NORMAL character has the capacity to knock this thing out, it's him. But that if is flimsy indeed...
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
The Real Truth | Posted 9/30/2008 9:48:55 PM | message detail
Ah yeah let's do this Sandbag
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:49:54 PM | message detail
I don't like all this Sandbag hype.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
swirIdude | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:00 PM | message detail
POWER UP THE HADOKEN!
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
Looking for a new sig.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:22 PM | message detail
CUT
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:28 PM | message detail
A nice cut!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:29 PM | message detail
yeahhhhhhhhhhh
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Moltar Status: augh
L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:31 PM | message detail
I just realized every big L-Block drop has been accompanied by a Dog boost. There's definitely SFF there.

argh why would you use this argument
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:38 PM | message detail
SHORYUKEN

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:44 PM | message detail
RYU CUT
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:50:55 PM | message detail
cut time
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Go Ducks Go!
http://img.imgcake.com/fallout_3.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2008 9:51:00 PM | message detail
HADOUKEN
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~
paraboxx | Posted 9/30/2008 9:51:08 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld
I just realized every big L-Block drop has been accompanied by a Dog boost. There's definitely SFF there.


Karma Hunter
Ryu goes up as Meta Knight goes down. It's like clockwork.

According to statheads this means that Ryu is SFFing Meta


heh...
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/30/2008 9:51:17 PM | message detail
HADOUKEN
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
transience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:51:32 PM | message detail
it's frightening how Dog and Block have almost 50% of the vote.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
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