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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 580

M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:14:16 PM | message detail
Removing The Dog and putting L against two tough opponents and a boosted Ama, is there really any argument about L-Block advancing anymore?
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 9:14:20 PM | message detail
Ryu > L looking "exactly as planned"

save_us.CTC
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Moltar Status: augh
L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52)
therealmnm | Posted 9/30/2008 9:14:27 PM | message detail
Are you guys sure about this being signs pointing to L-Block losing to Ryu? I'm skeptical. The block looks fine to me.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:14:41 PM | message detail
I guess if I want the fate of the contest in the hands of any character it may as well be old reliable
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:15:03 PM | message detail
It's too early to say anything yet. I'd like to see how far behind Ryu he actually finishes, although I definitely disagree with "R3 loss if the Dog is hurting him." The Dog, like L-Block, is a 100% joke character. It makes sense to assume that there is some significant SFF between the two. Remove that SFF and add another (seemingly) respectable midcarder in Ammy next round, and L looks golden in Round 2 and beyond.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:15:35 PM | message detail
L-Block up to a 300 vote lead on Ryu.

But it's OK because he's gonna drop soon, right? Heh.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:15:43 PM | message detail
MK GAINED MK GAINED MK GAINED MK GAINED
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/30/2008 9:15:44 PM | message detail
L-Block is legit Noble 9, yo!
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Feel my truth.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/30/2008 9:15:49 PM | message detail
Bad update, Ryu. What are you doing?
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Today's prediction: Ryu 33.95% - What the L 30.90% - 'Fight me' 24.40% - Dawg 10.75%
Status:
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:16:09 PM | message detail
Heh, it's as if people can't figure out whether to rally for Ryu or Meta Knight.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/30/2008 9:16:09 PM | message detail
I can't even watch this match anymore.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:16:20 PM | message detail
I definitely disagree with "R3 loss if the Dog is hurting him."

You're missing my comparison. I'm comparing L to his varying strengths from last year (R3 when he nearly edged Snake, R2 when he nearly got edged by Kirby).
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:00 PM | message detail
That was Meta-Knight recovering from that huge spike Ryu scored on him last update.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:06 PM | message detail
Ohh, I gotcha.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:09 PM | message detail
Well, looks like Meta's not completely dying to Ryu.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:11 PM | message detail
Meta-Knight went up a good deal there, and Ryu actually dropped. This isn't over yet- we've seen L-Block pull percentage collapses like no one else.
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Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 46/52 --- T-18 (96 way)
Bracket: Ryu > L-Block --- Vote: Meta-Knight
transience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:15 PM | message detail
hay guys the joke is old no one will vote for it
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:17 PM | message detail
Well, my bracket's done.

I wish we could lock up all the assburger cases in a Siberian gulag where they can all tell eachother the same damn awkward internet jokes all day.

Goddamn I hate this generation.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/30/2008 9:17:43 PM | message detail
Yes! Meta Knight gained!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:18:09 PM | message detail
I think Ryu's got a very good shot here. L's lagging 100 votes behind his pace on Kratos in round 2 despite there being more votals. He's about 100 votes ahead on Meta-Knight vs where he was on Kirby, though.
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Mustache...and green...
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/30/2008 9:18:19 PM | message detail
My bracket is done, too. Ryu > Meta Knight... -sigh-
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Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg.
transience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:18:35 PM | message detail
anyway, MK's gonna die pretty good after the first hour, I expect. Ryu will kick ass then, and L's probably got another hour of 35% updates in it. MK will be beastly in the daytime.

liking L's chances to win the contest right now, 'cause I don't think Ryu's gonna stop him next round if he can't get close to him in R1 with that Dog there eating up 15% of the vote.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
cyko | Posted 9/30/2008 9:18:41 PM | message detail
and that's that. everyone might as well pack up and go home now. i officially declare L-Block the winner of the whole contest.

and at this rate, the final four really could be: L-Block, Mudkip, WCC and Sandbag.

this contest officially sucks now.

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WARNING: EXPLICIT CONTENT...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 9:18:50 PM | message detail
Kratos is also much better with the day vote. Ryu is going to fold like a deck of cards with the ASV.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:19:17 PM | message detail
Hey, my odds of winning Guru have just increased! Thanks L-Block for doing pretty much exactly what I expected of you!
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:19:28 PM | message detail
guys guys cheer up we all know Ammy is a joke character
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Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 9:19:55 PM | message detail
I'm keeping an eye on this till the Mudkip die-off point. If Meta is too buried then I guess we'll just have to hope for next round.

It definitely seems like a beatable joke at least it didn't convert all of its momentum.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/30/2008 9:20:04 PM | message detail
Looking at all of L-Block's matches it lost:

8%, 9%, 12%, 12%, 22% and 21% (8% in the joke match) from 5 minutes in.

So that's looking to be around a 27% or so finish. Though this is the lowest it's every started out at, so the drop might be smaller this time.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:20:19 PM | message detail
liking L's chances to win the contest right now, 'cause I don't think Ryu's gonna stop him next round if he can't get close to him in R1 with that Dog there eating up 15% of the vote.

Link is the only hope, but in order to give Link the opportunity he needs, we need another joke character making the finals from the bottom half.

...

.......................sand.......
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 9:20:28 PM | message detail
I still don't buy into this "The Dog is hurting L" nonsense. People are voting L because he's an inanimate object winning a contest. People are voting for the Dog because Duck Hunt kicks ass. You could even postulate that the "old school" vote is hurting Ryu more than L.
hochimnih157 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:20:41 PM | message detail
Meta Knight simply does not have the raw physique to beat L-Block. Next round is the only chance of taking down L-Block because the other three characters have solid fanbases of their own. If L-Block makes it though Round 2, he wins the contest. But he won't. I, Hochiminh, have predicted his fall next round.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:20:59 PM | message detail
L-Block's slowing down, but Meta Knight's getting crushed.

Eh, two points won't matter in the long run anyway.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:21:18 PM | message detail
I still don't buy into this "The Dog is hurting L" nonsense. People are voting L because he's an inanimate object winning a contest. People are voting for the Dog because Duck Hunt kicks ass. You could even postulate that the "old school" vote is hurting Ryu more than L.

hey more hope blinders I was wonderin' where you were
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 9:21:32 PM | message detail
pssh i was against this contest before it was cool

guys guys cheer up we all know Ammy is a joke character

if there's any joke character next round it's corno ammy is the REAL DEAL
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Moltar Status: augh
L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52)
paraboxx | Posted 9/30/2008 9:21:41 PM | message detail
Hey, Wylvane! If you win Guru, who are you going to get them to nominate?
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:22:04 PM | message detail
are we assuming Ryu is possibly stronger this year too due to SFIV hype?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 9:22:24 PM | message detail
I've been saying from day one that if L is going to lose, it will be round 2. I have him coming second here, but he's been increasing his lead on Ryu at a fast enough pace that it won't even matter because he's going to end up beating Ryu next round.
therealmnm | Posted 9/30/2008 9:22:35 PM | message detail
I have nothing against L-Block being legit in these contests. I just don't think it's anything special and that there are plenty of other entities that could do the same thing. Looking how easily ? Block beat L-Block at the height of last year's contest proves that. If we're going to see L-Block in these things, might as well have other surefire things. Put ? Block in. Put Koopa Shell in. Put Buster Sword in. Put Invincibility Star in.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 9:23:09 PM | message detail
I expect that SF4 hype is minimal. Without an actual release, Ryu seems mired in his consistent, reliable, other-boring catchphrase I can't be bothered to thesaurus self.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:23:18 PM | message detail
are we assuming Ryu is possibly stronger this year too due to SFIV hype?

Nah, SFIV has done abysmally in every poll it's been in.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
chaosarcher07 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:23:31 PM | message detail
What do you think is the largest deficit Meta Knight can come back from?

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http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=29
CBVII Current Score: 46/52
HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 9:23:49 PM | message detail
I still don't buy into this "The Dog is hurting L" nonsense. People are voting L because he's an inanimate object winning a contest. People are voting for the Dog because Duck Hunt kicks ass. You could even postulate that the "old school" vote is hurting Ryu more than L.

Here's my anecdotal evidence that they're joke characters: I read off today's opponents to my room-mate in order. He laughed at L-Block, smiled at Ryu, thought nothign about MK, and laughed particularly hard at The Dog.

Joke characters.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/30/2008 9:24:05 PM | message detail
So, what percentage against Base Link is Meta looking to land?
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:24:10 PM | message detail

paraboxx (#435)
Hey, Wylvane! If you win Guru, who are you going to get them to nominate?


If it's a game, no clue. I've been mulling over several characters, though believe it or not, I wouldn't suggest anything jokey besides Master Hand. I'm throwing Toon Link around, too. And if I hear a good idea, I might pursue that as well.

It's pretty open for me, but you know, first I actually have to win the Guru. My bracket's far from perfect, and those other L-Block pickers probably have better brackets than me while making fewer idiotic mistakes.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 9:24:18 PM | message detail
Ryu semi-joke confirmed
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:24:23 PM | message detail
against L? probably 3500 votes. we're talking about an epic collapse after this first hour.

but L's probably at that after hour 1.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 9:24:28 PM | message detail
Ryu semi-stalled L... Meta fell just as much, though. Still... let's wait an hour and see what happens. L was not purely a "BOARD VOTE THEN DIE" thing it usually lasted a little while before really crashing.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 9:25:52 PM | message detail
He won't come back. People had these high expectations for Meta-Knight because he beat the crap out of low-tier Nintendo characters in an SFF situation. I didn't really buy into that at all, and my oracle prediction is exactly as the results are with Ryu and L swapped.
Keno316 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:26:00 PM | message detail
That Damn Dog is STILL bringing in 15%. Jesus!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 9:26:00 PM | message detail
Guys, guys.

If L-Block is legitimate now...no more static fanbase?

(prays)

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
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