GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 580
| cyko | Posted 9/30/2008 7:29:42 PM | message detail |
|
google image search: dog "duck hunt" nintendo - 14,700 results google image search: L-Block - 13.400 results however, The Dog has paintings, lamps, and... cross-stitching? seriously? --- WARNING: EXPLICIT CONTENT... is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/30/2008 7:38:52 PM | message detail |
|
I would just like to throw out there that Amaterasu is doing worse on
Frank than Ada did last year. This doesn't look like Amaterasu
increased to me, Crono might still be slipping somehow, or he
overperformed last year due to facing Vincent in the Sprite Round. --- "Keep in mind that I am making this proposal out of good will. I could just as easily toss you all out and take over the ship."--KOS-MOS |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 7:49:24 PM | message detail |
| It's good to see that Crono's going to stay above
49%- in fact, he may go above Dante's percentage on Ammy/Little
Mac/Matt. That's not really encouraging, but it could have been worse. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 42/48 --- T-20 (104 way) Bracket: Crono > Amaterasu --- Vote: Crono |
| hochimnih157 | Posted 9/30/2008 7:50:27 PM | message detail |
|
Crono has fallen to the level of Dante. Yeah, real good to see. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55 |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2008 7:50:57 PM | message detail |
|
trannyscience | Posted 9/30/2008 9:56:47 PM (#221) You mean fair fair fair nair nair fair fair throw throw fair fair BBBBBB >BBBBBBBBB --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 7:53:01 PM | message detail |
|
We could get a picture of of him holding a duck if he wins, and 2 if he goes to round 3! That would be amazing. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/30/2008 7:59:40 PM | message detail |
|
That is brilliant --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/30/2008 8:00:05 PM | message detail |
|
One hour. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:01:05 PM | message detail |
|
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/duckhunt.jpg --- CB7 Score: 40/48 http://www.rosebride.com/lyn/otakon2k6/chronotrigger.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 8:01:22 PM | message detail |
|
Man I'm gettin a real case of DOGFEAR right now. I'm almost tempted to vote for it... and Meta-Knight is in the poll and MK is the better guy to fell my mortal enemy L-Block. I friggin love Meta-Knight. Then again I think I'm totally out of touch with the humor of the Internet so maybe this bodes ill-ly for the Dog. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 8:02:34 PM | message detail |
| Then in round 4, he's sniffing for the championship, and jumps into the fray in round 5. Then in the finals he'll be laughing again because he just ****ed over everyone. |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:04:12 PM | message detail |
|
That would be the best narrative to ever be portrayed in contest pics. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 8:04:29 PM | message detail |
|
Round 1 Division 4- Match 2 L-Block Oh god get this thing out of my contest Meta-Knight The third biggest badass in gaming returns after an impressive performance last year in beating out the likes of Wario and Peach. Ryu MY DARK STALLLLLLLLLLLION! The Dog HATE HATE HATE! Analysis: Here we go, the single most important round 1 match in contest history, yes, even more important than Halo/Starcraft. We've been discussing L-block and his meteoric rise to contest infamy since the contest ended last year, and he makes his triumphant return in a very winnable situation. Or does he? First, let's look at his competitors. First we have Ryu, one of the strongest non-Noble, non-Squincent characters in the field. Last year he impressed greatly and advanced far on good bracket placement that saw Cloud tear a chunk out of Auron for him. Expect him to do some damage this year, perhaps even getting to the finals? Next we have Meta-Knight. Last year he looked good after he beat the crap out of his Nintendo compadres, but does that really mean anything when he's the only Nintendo character in the match? Lastly, we have The Dog, that damned mutt from Duck Hunt that cruelly laughs at the gamer when he/she fails to shoot any ducks. That thing is the bane of my childhood. Which brings us to L-block himself, "Shaped like a boot to kick your bracket's ass" I believe is how the saying goes. And this year is no different. Half the bracketmakers have given into BLOCKFEAR and have him winning yet again, and the other half have him going out in the first round. What can cause such a polarity in expectations? A lot of false hope and misunderstandings. To get a grip on what to expect this year, we first go back to last year and the infamous tear through all our collective brackets. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2887 As you can see, in the first round, he lost handily to Kirby. Understandable, he was up against complete fodder in Laharl and Nathan Hale. I even had him advancing here. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3907 Here's where the true run began. Although here you can very easily (and correctly) blame him advancing on Kirby/DK SFF, something that was even considered given how well L did in the first round. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2917 Here's where the **** starts hitting the proverbial fan. How can a Tetris block get to within 4% of Snake and easily beat Kratos? This is the bandwagon gaining steam. Suddenly it's no longer "Oh look, a Tetris piece is beating obscure characters I don't care about" or "He's beating 2 characters that are splitting with eachother", now it's "Wow, this thing has gotten far. I'm going to support it in the hopes of de-throning Link!" |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 8:04:43 PM | message detail |
|
That'd be a lot of fun if a joke character has to win. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 8:04:50 PM | message detail |
|
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2922 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2924 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2925 And the rest speaks for itself. By this point, the Block had outside help in the form of rallies and a legitimate shot at ending the ad nauseum Clinkeroth domination. A Tetris block beating our champions! That's hilarious! Which brings us to today. The joke is now old, and the rest of the internet no longer cares. L-Block winning again would defeat the entire purpose of people supporting it the first time, but of course there are many an Aspergers case on this site that don't quite get how humour works. So the big question, how far does it go this year? Like I said, half have it out in the first round, and the rest have it winning. Personally, I think his time will come in the second round, with a perfect recipe for de-railing the Tetris Train, but more on that when (if) that match happens. Right now, I don't think MK has the "oompf" to take down the block, but Ryu should have no trouble. I think that's more of Meta Knight's weakness than L's strength though I honestly can't see MK much higher than low midcarder status, and his value was inflated last year due to all the SFF. Though I would love for him to prove me wrong here. Also discussed is the potential "joke SFF" between Dog and Block, but I don't really believe in that as it seems a bit farfetched. L-Block is going to act like a more serious competitor this year. TuRtLe's Prediction: Ryu 35%, L-block 29%, Meta-Knight 24%, The Dog 13% TuRtLe's Bracket: Ryu > L-block TuRtLe's Vote: Meta-Knight |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:13:42 PM | message detail |
|
I'm surprised not more people went with L-Block winning considering if
you're part of the 10% of us on Board 8 who have him winning, you have
better odds of winning it all than the 90% who don't. Either way you
don't know which way it'll fall, so why not go for the side of the coin
flip that only 1 in 10 are chancing for? --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/30/2008 8:14:42 PM | message detail |
|
Add me to the L-Block cost me prize money club. I was sitting real
pretty before he actually went and beat Link causing those Cloud >
Link pickers to jump ahead. :( Not that I really care about the prize
money itself. It's just it seems like a lot of people around the stats
topic have at least gotten 10th place or something. I'm always at the
doorstep... I'm the Atlanta Braves of the stats topic. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 8:16:15 PM | message detail |
|
I really thought about doing L-Block > Cloud for some guaranteed
points, but I legitimately felt like L-Block was going to lose to Crono
> Ryu next round... ...I no longer feel that way. =/ --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:20:48 PM | message detail |
|
Match XIV: L-Block vs. Meta Knight vs. Ryu vs. The Dog Information: Name: L-Block Game/Series From: Tetris 2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 2nd in round 2, 2nd in round 3, 1st in round 4, 1st in round 5, 1st in round 6 The overall champion of 2007 was a joke character. Tetris being known by all videogame fans and even many non-videogame fans gave L-Block the strength it needed to come in second in every match, by the time the internet found out it was able to use its new found strength to win the entire contest. This year L-Block’s path to championship is much harder, how will it perform? Name: Meta-Knight Game/Series From: Kirby series 2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 3rd in round 2 Meta Knight used the power of a Brawl trailer plus being a fan favourite to Kirby fans to beat two apathetic Nintendo characters and CATS. This year while two Nintendo characters are also in the poll, though they are joke characters Meta Knight will be able to show us his true strength plus any he got from the release of Brawl. Name: Ryu Game/Series From: Street Fighter series 2007 Results: 1st in round 1, 2nd in round 2, 2nd in round 3, 4th in round 4 Ryu was considered to have a lucky bracket placement last year. Even though he didn’t need it as shown in round 2 Ryu destroyed Bowser with help from Toad and Mewtwo. Also with the help from Cloud Ryu defeated Auron despite losing to him in the previous round. This year we could see Ryu reaching the fourth round again, but he can also lose in the second round, it all depends on what the block does. Name: The Dog Game/Series From: Duck Hunt 2007 Results: Did not enter I was in Portugal during the nomination period so I wasn’t around board 8, but when the bracket was released I think even my parents in Vancouver could hear me scream out “What!” I was surprised at the amount of joke characters in the bracket and here we have two of them in the same match. When I arrived back in Canada to take a second look at the bracket I realized that with the inclusion of The Dog this could be an interesting match. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:21:27 PM | message detail |
|
Analysis: The most important match of the contest is either this one or the one next round. It’s a surprise to see such an important match so early in the contest, but that is how L-Block works. The block was put in a position where it had and weak first match, a LFF as a second match and as fodder characters died out and L-Block remained static it was getting harder and harder to fine two opponents to outscore him. Also the internet helped it a lot by the time it reached round 5 and 6. There seems to be a lot of misunderstandings on how the block works. Without massive internet support L-Block will usually score about 28% against its opponents, it scored 30% in its first round match because of the weakness of two of its opponents and of being so recognizable to the masses in a fodder match. That is how joke characters work, they have a strong base and not many new voters are added to the pool. Of course as the joke character goes up against more popular opponents a small portion of the base gets eroded though for L-Block sake his percent was replenished as the base went to recruit more people. No matter what L-Block does in this match, it’s a sure thing that Ryu will at least place in this match. The days where Ryu lost to Bowser by a huge margin are gone and he has now reclaimed the title as a top competitor. Even if Brawl gave Meta Knight a huge boost, which seems unlikely given the performance of other Brawl characters it won’t give Meta Knight the power to defeat Ryu. Also if two joke characters placed in this poll I’ll eat my hat and this may be the last contest that I’ll pay a lot of attention to. If L-Block does make it to the next round Ryu’s strength is going to be a major component at defeating the block. However if L-Block places first here all bets are off. At first I resented the fact that The Dog was in the contest though this will be the first time that we’ll get two joke characters in the same poll. Tetris is much more known than Duck Hunt (though both are very well known) so The Dog pretty much has no chance at winning here. However there are only so many joke voters to go around and if The Dog starts to get a good chunk of those votes then it could weaken L-Block. Will it be enough for Meta Knight to squeeze by? Speaking of joke voters they are still alive and doing very well. Look no further than Mudkip’s performance (which looked eerily similar to his last year match) and GlaDOS’s performance (I consider her having joke vote support because of Still Alive) and we see them doing well against their opponents. It’s too early whether to tell if the joke voters have gotten bigger or smaller, but we can conclude that they still have some influence in the polls. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 8:21:27 PM | message detail |
| I was lucky enough to get 10th place for prizes
(23rd in general) despite L > Link...I'm not sure if I would have
gotten 5th or better for more prize money, but it definitely cost me a
lot of positions. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:21:56 PM | message detail |
|
This bodes well for L-Block who has become the favourite to take second
place in this poll. While even the strongest joke characters seem to
cap under 25% the L-Block’s cap is 28% making it that much harder to
find two stronger characters and a weak character in which they can
absorb percent from. L-Block won’t have as much support as it did in
the finals so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it continue its 28% cap. The only thing stopping L-Block from being a huge favourite to take second is The Dog. I find it funny that the weakest character of the poll holds the key to L-Block’s triumph and demise. If The Dog can get a respectable percent that would mean that he’ll be LFF L-Block and it won’t get the 28% it usually gets and possibly give Meta Knight the win, but if The Dog doesn’t get enough votes that could again let Meta Knight score above the block due to there being a lot of percent being left over. L-Block is hoping that The Dog will somehow get a happy medium. Of course if the poll is close near the end L-Block does have a massive vote rally potential. As L-Block hopes that The Dog doesn’t do anything stupid all eyes fall onto Meta Knight. In both of his contest matches last year Meta Knight had Nintendo characters lowering his stat value. This year Meta Knight will increase in strength from being underrated last year and Brawl. Brawl may have not helped the characters as much, but Meta Knight is a huge fan favourite in the game and he’ll need everything he can get to try to get as close to Ryu as possible. With The Dog possibly weakening L-Block Meta Knight also needs to complete his part of the plan and that is to try to get as close to Ryu as possible. In a match between Kirby and Ryu I’d probably take Ryu in a close match so the question becomes how close is Meta Knight to Kirby? In the Kirby series Meta Knight is considered to be the fan favourite though Kirby has the Smash series to work off and with Meta Knight being in only one game of the series the guy probably won’t be as strong as Kirby though I’d think that he would be able to take down some respectable characters. For L-Block to be defeated it will need a lot of factors to go against it, a Meta Knight increase and The Dog getting a good portion of the joke votes. In the longest analysis of this contest so far I believe that despite the obstacles Meta Knight will find a way to squeeze by L-Block. Keep in mind that L-Block has the resources and the fans to rally so if we’re in the final hour we could see an L-Block comeback of some sorts. charmander6000’s Bracket: Ryu > Meta Knight charmander6000’s Prediction: Ryu – 35.42%, Meta Knight – 27.25%, L-Block 25.85%, The Dog – 11.48% --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 36/48 Today's Match: Crono > Amaterasu |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 8:24:05 PM | message detail |
|
As much as I'm rooting for L-Block to go down this year, he made last year. Best run in contest history, and I supported him as soon as he came close to Kirby in R1. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/30/2008 8:25:11 PM | message detail |
|
I was lucky enough to get 10th place for prizes (23rd in general)
despite L > Link...I'm not sure if I would have gotten 5th or better
for more prize money, but it definitely cost me a lot of positions. Exactly, and I was like 28th or something, just outside of prizes. Braves:Me --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| WarThaHedgehog | Posted 9/30/2008 8:29:47 PM | message detail |
|
At the same time, how many of those people whom L hurt with Link were only in position because of L > Snake >_> --- "Dreaming of one day flying, it practices by leaping off cliffs every day." ~Bagon's Pokedex entry |
| cyko | Posted 9/30/2008 8:30:02 PM | message detail |
|
for what it's worth, Kirby Super Star was also just re-released on the
DS and that's Meta-Knight's biggest game besides Brawl. every little
bit helps! --- WARNING: EXPLICIT CONTENT... is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:35:45 PM | message detail |
|
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 14 – L-Block vs. Meta Knight vs. Ryu vs. The Dog Moltar’s Analysis L-Block Game/Series Known From: Tetris 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Kirby, Laharl and Nathan 2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Kratos, Kirby and Donkey Kong 2nd Place in Round 3 vs. Solid Snake, Kratos and Riku 1st Place in Round 4 vs. Solid Snake, Sonic and Squall 1st Place in Round 5 vs. Solid Snake, Master Chief and Dante 1st Place in Round 6 vs. Link, Cloud and Solid Snake Like a Katamari, becoming stronger over time and only causing more destruction Meta Knight Game/Series Known From: Kirby 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Sephiroth, Peach and CATS 3rd Place in Round 2 vs. Sephiroth, Fox and Wario Brawl Character #12, Victory is his destiny! Ryu Game/Series Known From: Street Fighter 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Bowser, Mewtwo and Toad 2nd Place in Round 2 vs. Auron, Bowser and Shadow 2nd Place in Round 3 vs. Cloud, Auron and Marcus Fenix 4th Place in Round 4 vs. Cloud, Samus and Mega Man The lone-Street Fighter this time around The Dog Game/Series Known From: Duck Hunt 2007 Results: N/A Part of the Character Battle ’08 Joke Character Initiative This is it. This is the Round 1 match that scares me the most. A lot of brackets can and will be busted by this match, and there’s not even a Noble Nine character anywhere in sight! “Hey, it’s L-Block! He won the contest last year!” Why, look, it is Billy the Casual Bracketmaker! Looks like you remember L-Block’s meteoric rise to Character Battle champion last year. But here’s the biggest question going into this match, will L-Block strength and momentum carry over from last contest? “Why do you ask that? He won! Of course he’s strong!” Really? Remember back in Round 1 when L got second place to Kirby. It only made it to the second round because 1) Its other opponents were weak as sin (hmm) and 2) It’s a Tetris piece, and everyone has played Tetris, so it’s extremely recognizable. After that Round 1 match, L-Block started to build a base. It was able to make it through Round 2 because of the split between Kirby and DK, as well as having a following starting to back it. Once Round 3 hit and it performed well with Snake in the poll, most saw that it was only getting stronger. There would always be a percent of votes that would vote it over anyone. No one could stop it, and it even managed to topple Link and Cloud at the end. “Okay, so what does that have to do with anything?” Well, L only got as strong as it did because it was able to capitalize off its earlier wins on weaker opponents. If it had two strong competitors to face in Round 1, like Kirby and Squall or something, it wouldn’t have made it out of the group. This year, instead of Laharl and Nathan Fail to pick on, it has Meta Knight and The Dog, along with a strong opponent in Ryu. This could be it. This could be the year that kills L once and for all. “Wow, you really think L-Block will lose in Round 1.” There’s a chance, but I’m taking that chance. For L to win here, it would need to carry over its following from last year. Now if you remember, a lot of people were in on the joke, and even people from other sites came to support the block. However, a joke is only funny for so long. There are still some who will be voting for the Block non-stop, but others are over it. It will be impossible to know for sure until the match actually begins, but it already beat Link and won a contest, so there isn’t much more it can do. “So…what do you think will happen?” |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:36:04 PM | message detail |
|
Well, Billy, I believe that Ryu will take first. Even if the Block does
have some of its momentum from last year, Ryu is very strong in this
format. Last year, he only crumbled once he faced top characters. Meta
Knight in second place is a bit of a stretch, as he’s already a
low-rung Nintendo character. He only got to Round 2 because Nintendo
fans like him more than Peach (which, uhh, makes sense). Plus, in both
his matches, he had to face other popular Nintendo/Smash characters, so
he should look much better this year. He also has BRAWLFEAR in his
corner, and that should help as well. Now for The Dog. Yes it’s a joke character like L, but it’s also a bad joke character. Why would you like The Dog from Duck Hunt geez? Regardless, it will get votes and it could potentially tap into L’s joke vote pool because people will be looking for “the next L-Block”. It does look really good in the match picture too…hmmm. “So, you think Ryu and Meta Knight will advance” Eh, it’s less what I think will happen than it is what I hope will happen. L’s biggest hurdles this year are Round 1 and 2. If it can advance, then we’ll see a repeat of last year. The key to killing L is to kill it early. Last year, the competition was just too weak to allow for this. This time, there’s Ryu and Meta in Round 1, and Crono in Round 2. There is a very good possibility that people will still support L. I hope people have realized that this joke lost its funny a long time ago, but then again, I may just be giving humanity too much credit. “Wow, Moltar, you sound like you have a vendetta against L-Block. What’s wrong, are you upset that it ruined your bracket. Are you sad I make a mockery of your precious contest? Are you mad because I screwed you out of having a top bracket?” You…you’re not Billy! I can’t believe it’s you, L-Block! “Well done, Moltar. You figured it out. But you should know it’s too late for anyone who wants to see me lose. I have the hearts of the people now. I am unstoppable, and there’s no way I will lose this contest! I am no ordinary character, I am a Tetris Piece, fueled by the masses!” Die monster! You don’t belong in this Contest! “It was not by my hand that I am once again in these Contests. I was called here by humans who wish to nominate me again.” Nominate!?! You steal men's souls, and make them vote for you! “Perhaps the same could be said of all characters.” Your words are as empty as your character depth! GameFAQs ill-needs a character such as you! “What is a character? *tosses T-Block to the floor, causing it to shatter* A miserable little pile of fanbases! But enough talk... have at you!” Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ryu > L-Block (yeah I changed my bracket like the day after I wrote this and I think L will win but I’m too lazy to change this creation I made) (i mean just look at it goddam) Moltar’s Prediction is: Ryu: 35% - L-Block: 28% - Meta Knight: 21% - The Dog: 16% Heroic Mario’s Analysis l-block sighting This match cracks me up. The arguments I've seen for this one range from 'what' to 'well then.' I'm not sure if Block winning last year has created some sort of backlash on the board or what, but there's some major Block underestimation going on. Some have said it's not even going to advance here, with Meta-Knight using - wait for it - Joke SFF to his advantage to slip by. You know it's time to retire the character battles when we're talking about Joke SFF. What does that even mean? (the funny is split joke characters have no chance serious character breaks through watch out - 'what') |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:36:46 PM | message detail |
|
I can't believe that The Dog is going to have enough pull to beat, or
hinder, the Block. Best to keep in mind that this thing beat Link and Cloud
with ease last year in the final. You can make an argument that it
might not have the same strength right off the back, but I don't think
so. The Block is a known quantity now - people know what it's capable
of doing, unlike last year where it picked up steam each match by
winning where it shouldn't have. I think the support for Block will
only falter if the joke is 'old' - not that there was much of a joke
with it to begin with. If that's the case, it could lose to Meta-Knight, but that's a dramatic drop I don't see happening. The bigger question isn't whether or not Block advances so much as who comes in first - Ryu or Block? If Block beats Ryu here, we can pretty much call this contest right away. Block won't lose if it comes in first off the bat, because it'd be a guarantee for round 2 - and if it wins there it's off to win the contest again. I think Block's going to be a little weaker this year, enough that Ryu wins this round. I almost have to predict Ryu ahead of Block because I have it losing in round 2. But I wouldn't mind it going out early, provided it's not The Dog advancing. This contest is much more interesting later on if the Block isn't there to mess up another Vincent/Crono exchange. Come on Joke SFF don't let me down Prediction: Ryu - 35% ; L-Block - 25% ; The Dog - 20% ; Meta-Knight - 20% Bracket: Ryu > Block Vote: Ryu Yoblazer’s Analysis Welcome to hell. After what seemed like a lifetime of anxious waiting, we've finally reached the most disputed, most debated, most hotly anticipated match of the first round. This ain't no Peach/Daisy, folks. In fact, this may be both the most important first round match ever and the most important match (period) of this entire tournament. Why? Because this match can potentially decide the direction of the whole contest. Yes, it can mean everything. I've said this before, so forgive me if I sound like a broken record, but if this match plays out a certain way, 90%+ of the Gurus may as well burn their brackets. How can a mere Round 1 match be so damn huge? Let's take a long look... There's one reason, more than any other, why we've been waiting for this match on pins and needles: joke characters. They are back (in greater numbers than last year), and they are the crux of this bracket. Gracing us with his angular presence tonight is the king of all joke characters: L-Block, our returning champion. L-Block rode a tsunami of ever-increasing momentum last year on his way to the title, and that leads us to our first big question: how strong will L-Block be in his first match back? Will he be as weak as he was in his first match last year? If so, he'll almost certainly lose this. Will he be as strong as when he beat Link and Cloud? If so, he'll tear this poll apart. Personally, I think he'll be in a healthy middle. No, he won't beat Link and Cloud tomorrow, but he should have retained enough of his oomph and static fanbase to do well here. Time for me to be honest. I'm not necessarily happy with the idea of joke characters doing well. To me, it sort of renders all this lovely discussion and debate useless. My bracket reflected this attitude for nearly the entire prediction period. I only changed it (my bracket is now joke-i-fied; I have Block, WCC, and Sandbag all doing extremely well) after I was slapped in the face with this: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3240 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:37:11 PM | message detail |
|
That... is the sort of thing that makes you think. In a poll of who the
GameFAQs voters thought would repeat, L-Block held his own against both
Link and Cloud, and "another gimmick character" crushed every other
option. Taking the aggregate, this poll suggests that L-Block + Other
Joke Characters = Link + Cloud + The Rest of the Field in victory
probability, at least in the eyes of our voters. I saw this and immediately
retooled my bracket while the rest of the board (and sorry if this
sounds disrespectful) chose to stay blissfully ignorant, pretending the
poll never even occurred. Well, it did occur. Yes, I've heard the
arguments regarding how this is showing us what the voters think will happen, not what they want to happen. While this is true, I argue that no character can go from staying even with Link and Cloud in one poll (any poll) to getting their ass kicked by Kirby two weeks later (L-Block easily lost to Kirby in his first match last year). Believe what you will, but that poll suggests L-Block is starting on a higher level than he was last year. Still choosing to close your eyes and stick two fingers in your ears? Here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2497 Are you kidding me? Would Snake have won that poll so easily in 2005? In 2004? Snake won that poll like butter and went on to win the male bracket like even butterier butter. Like it or not, even in polls that ask for the contrary, voters are swayed by their most favored options. That 15% L-Block put up on Link and Cloud two weeks ago won't just melt away tonight. That 35% "other joke characters" put up won't simply disappear, either. Wait. Other joke characters. I thought there was something about other joke characters... what was it; it was right under my nose... oh yeah. The Dog. The damned Dog. Our second entrant, and the only thing likely to hurt L-Block for rounds and rounds, is The Dog. Hailing from Duck Hunt, The Dog is very similar to the Tetris piece in that he is a pure joke character. A huge chunk of this guy's votes will be sapped directly from the stronger Block. Now, I won't lie and pretend to know how strong The Dog will be. Hell, I initially had him in the finals (this was when I first put my bracket together in two minutes while nearly pissing myself with joke fear, but still), and now I have him getting last place here, proving I still have no idea how he'll do. He may do alright, but I certainly don't expect him to take the lion's share of joke support from L-Block, thus limiting his potential. I think he'll end up somewhere in the mid teens. Plus, I heard that no one likes this dog, anyway! ****ing mutt. ****ing mutt I'll teach ya to laugh at me you flea ridden sack of ok moving on. Now, they can't all be joke characters, and luckily for us, we're blessed with two very legit dudes. They are Ryu, our ever consistent Street Fighter veteran, and Meta Knight from the Kirby series (and, more importantly, BRAWL). Ryu is the massive Board 8 favorite for first place here, and rightfully so. He is one of our most consistently strong characters ever, and he had an amazing 2007. Ryu took advantage of two consecutive Nintendo fanbase splits to make the division finals, where he then took advantage of Cloud's presence to sprint past Auron and into the quarterfinals. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:37:46 PM | message detail |
| While I think Ryu can easily win this match by a
very healthy percentage (being that the other three guys are all huge
question marks), I think the people expecting him to outdo his Round 1
performance from last year are a bit too blinded by their L-Block hate.
Last year, Ryu scored a great 36% in Round 1, but he did it against
Bowser, Mewtwo, and Toad. In other words, he did it against the
biggest, most amazing Nintendo fanbase split any character could ask
for. The fact that his opponents are more diverse this year (never mind
the fact that they could easily be stronger), should knock Ryu down a
peg or two. Once again, he definitely can pull a great win given
favorable circumstances such as The Dog overperforming, but I feel
L-Block will make this one close. Our final entrant, Meta Knight, is a very unknown quantity despite the fact that we saw him twice last year. He has gotten Brawl since then, but I'm believing more and more that the Brawl release won't do much above and beyond the Brawl hype he already had. No, I think Meta Knight has a wide range because both his 2007 matches were all sorts of ****ed up. In two matches, MK saw nothing but Sephiroth and other Nintendo characters (most of them being very far down the Nintendo SFF ladder). That won't tell us much about any character, and this is no exception. With all this uncertainty, I think the best way to peg Meta Knight would be to pit him against the consistent Ryu. For some reason, I keep thinking of a standard 60/40 result when I think of these two squaring off, so I kept that proportion for them here. Overall, none of us really know what's going down tonight, other than it being BIG and possibly shaping the rest of this contest. Most Board 8ers I've spoken to are very critical of L-Block's chances, as was I up until a few weeks ago. However, I think there's a big difference between us and the people who make up 99% of the votals. We've had a year to digest this L-Block crap. He ruined our brackets. He made our analyses seem useless. He dried up all stats discussion for ten solid months (seriously, what the **** was there to talk about?). We've long since been sick of him. That's Board 8. "Oh hey, it's L-Block again! Man, that was a hilarious day last year." *click* That's everyone else. While I won't make any bets on this uncertain a match, I can't shake the suspicion that L-Block will start to murder this thing after the first update (when most of us will be frantically anti-voting him). Guess we'll have to just wait and see! And hey, for all this trash talking about the joke characters, their presence sure does produce some lengthy write-ups! L-Block - 33% Meta Knight - 21% Ryu (Street Fighter) - 32% The Dog - 14% Lopen’s Analysis Isn't it cool for your make or break match to be in round 1? A lot of people have L-Block taking the bracket again. A lot of people have him going out in round 1. And the crazy thing is... BOTH ARE VERY POSSIBLE. Me? If you remember last year, I think you know what I gambled on. DIE L-BLOCK DIE. But... I won't risk my bracket on any old terrible pick, even one that involves a character I hate, not without a good reason. Are there reasons to doubt L-Block this year? Absolutely, there are. Let me break em down for ya. -In round 1, L-Block has The Dog there. We saw after the tournament last year in the exhibition match where ? Block laid the smack down... L-Block voters are not exactly the most loyal, despite what his seemingly static percentage implies. Against normal entries, sure, but fellow jokes? I would imagine Duck Hunt is one of the few games that exist that can say "yes, I hold a candle to the playrate of Tetris." Game was packaged with the NES, remember? People will know who The Dog is, his potential is great. People hate him... but that's part of the humor. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:38:12 PM | message detail |
| -I forecast a decrease in L-Block strength this
year. I think the joke, along with all joke entries, are largely
shock-driven in their appeal. Personally the only truly funny joke
entry events last year were the beginning of Bidoof's R2 match and L's
R1 match, for me. By the time R2, R3, etc hit for the L, we'd already
analyzed it to death and were humoring an L victory in the next round.
I don't think the general voters expected as much, and as such the
shock value was still strong. The pre-contest poll indicated that
around 30% of GameFAQs expects L-Block or some other joke entry to repeat, meaning the shock value is largely gone. -In round 2, L faces the perfect L stomping squad, but that's for R2, if he makes it that far. Meta-Knight showed some reasonable strength last year, somehow, and with him being one of the most popular Brawl characters with some of the least exposure beforehand, he's sure to go up more than most. Assuming he can avoid getting blown out by Ryu, Dog joke SFF + a slight L decrease should bring L's floor low enough for Meta-Knight to win. Lopen's prediction: Ryu – 36.09% Meta-Knight – 26.02% L-Block – 24.11% The Dog – 13.78% Transience’s Analysis time to write about the single most important first round match of all time. Starcraft/Halo's reign is over. this match is quite possibly the best (only?) chance to kill The Block -- if this thing gets past round 2, it's going to be unbeatable unless some other weird fad ends up in a match with it. anyway, let me pick apart some arguments that have been made over the past couple of months about the Block: Argument: L-Block will suck this year because the joke is old. my thoughts: this is so incredibly incorrect. Wylvane doesn't really say much, he mostly just sits there and trolls people while laughing the entire time. he's kind of an idiot. but he's absolutely right about one thing: if there's one truth about the internet, it's that they'll beat a joke to death and then beat it some more. just last week, we saw friggin' Mudkip win some updates on Mega Man X. Mudkip is the oldest, lamest joke on the internet, and yet people still vote for it. CATS is coming up on ten years old and people still vote for it. I think a lot of people using this argument have just spent too much time on board 8 - for most people, this was a random thing that happened a year ago and was never thought about since, if you asked the average person, "hey, remember when the Tetris Block won that GameFAQs contest?", most people's responses would be "ha, yeah, that was awesome." this is not something they've dealt with every week for the past year. it's new, it's exciting, and people are going to vote for it. and let's not forget that L's got a truckload of brackets behind it now. Argument: L-Block needs momentum in order to repeat, and he just won't have time to build up momentum when he's got Ryu and Meta-Knight right off the bat. my thoughts: I disagree - people remember L-Block. we had a poll the other day where about 15% of the voters said L-Block was going to win - as many as Cloud or Link got - and then another 34% voted "Another gimmick character will win the character battle". people remember this and it's going to start out stronger than 2007 round 1 - which, by the way, rolled up some 30% in round 1 regardless. now, this pack is certainly stronger than last year's, and I don't think it'll be at the same "alert the entire internet, L-Block's in a match" level that it was at for the finals last year, but people will be ready, there will probably be linkage from various sites, and L-Block almost definitely starts out the poll with a huge lead like always. put another way, I don't expect L-Block to decline. Argument: The Dog will "joke SFF" L-Block. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:38:53 PM | message detail |
|
my thoughts: ha. man, who knows here. the idea of "joke SFF" is so
dumb, and yet it makes sense - we saw what happens to The Block last
year when it faced other joke characters in that bonus match: it lost
to ? block. if you believe in joke characters getting a relatively
static percentage - and by now, it's all but proven given L's matches -
then the only thing stopping L from getting that 28% every match is
another joke character. the problem is, how strong is The Dog? seriously, how do you gauge that thing? it seems to me like it'd get some 12-15% in a match without another joke character. where does the "joke fanbase" (oh god overanalysis) side here, with a Tetris Block or the dick from Duck Hunt that laughs at you? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzLwvfiBZs8 aww yeah who wants some I'll tentatively say that The Dog will impede L, but it's impossible to say by how much - for all we know, The Dog could be the new Block and kick ass. or it could bomb. who knows? --- now then. let's move on to the other main question -- how strong is Meta-Knight? it's difficult to gauge Meta-Knight from last year because it went up against another Nintendo character and a joke character, and then against two other Nintendo characters in round 2. Meta-Knight looked to be around the fodder line though, and now he's TOP TIER STUPID BROKEN SPAM TORNADO INFINITE CAPE GLITCH JACKASS Knight, so I imagine he's gained a bunch of fans. I'll cautiously say that he's about the strength of Marth and just move on. the thing is, Meta-Knight's strength doesn't really matter because the Block is a static entity. it's not going to get 40% just because Meta-Knight is weak. it's going to stay at that same boring 28%. the better question is, is Meta-Knight strong enough to get 28% with Ryu in the poll? Ryu is certainly stronger than Meta-Knight, one of our most consistent performers over the years and a guy you can count on to be of a certain strength. the worse Ryu does, the better chance Meta-Knight has of gobbling up percentage - L-Block's kryptonite would be two characters of equal strength and one weak as hell character. L-Block is just weird as hell and you have to think all stupid-like in order to figure out what's going to happen. can Meta-Knight perform well enough on Ryu in order to win? and can The Dog hold down Ryu? that's basically what this match comes down to. I've been a big supporter of The Block, cheering for it, arguing like hell for it all throughout last year's run (got every match but the semifinals right in the Analysis Crew!), and argued a lot for it this year as well.. but for some reason, I've got Meta-Knight here. this is like the perfect storm for the Block to lose. two legit characters and a joke character that may hurt him. I think L + Dog will break 30%, but that split might not be so one-sided and Meta-Knight has to have gotten stronger now that Brawl is out. if he can pull 25%, the Block's reign of terror might be over. Meta-Knight pulled 20% on Sephiroth/CATS/Peach last year. I feel like betting against last year's contest champion is incredibly stupid and he's (it's?) going to embarrass me, but oh well. come on, SPAM KNIGHT oh god I hate fighting you I will never vote for you screw you Meta-Knight why did I do this The Dog hurts L-Block Meta-Knight's gotten stronger Ryu kills them both transience's dumb as hell prediction: Ryu with 36.01%, Meta-Knight with 25.45%, L-Block with 24.89%, The Dog with 13.65% Ngamer’s Analysis So it begins... the great battle of our time. For the first time in history, we can honestly say that the most important match of the Contest takes place tomorrow... in the first round. What the wha? Let's jump right in! Last Known Values L - 64.83% (2007) Ryu - 28.05% (2007) Meta Knight - 22.80% (2007) The Dog - new |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:39:18 PM | message detail |
|
The great battle is, in this case,
BRAWLFEAR vs JOKEFEAR. Meta Knight's got alot going for him in this
one- he was dismissed as "guy from a trailer" last season and some
B8ers picked him to not only finish behind Peach, but behind CATS as
well. (CATS!) Instead he proved that he's got a loyal Kirby
following that stuck behind him and pushed him on to nice showings,
even when SSB competition arrived in the form of Fox. He's still got
that loyal Kirby backing, he's still got his very appealing character
design, and now he's actually BEEN IN SSB as well. Where, just by the
by, he's both a casual favorite and the undisputed #1 ranked choice on
the pro-level tiers. Whoa! What could stand in the way of so many
strong positive points? Well, his opponent, uh... beat Link last year. Pretty easily. Does that count for anything? The crazy thing is, maybe it doesn't! Even though L ended the season as arguably the biggest powerhouse we've ever seen, he STARTED it not all that far above the fodder line, and had to rely on extremely fortunate bracket placement in order to survive in both round one and round two. Will the L-Block train need a few rounds to gain steam in '08? Will it even gain steam at all, or will the internet at large agree that the joke has grown stale and its time to move on? So many questions regarding JOKEFEAR, with so few answers to this point in the Contest... lucky for us those answers will be arriving in only a couple hours now. Seems like an epicly close battle to this point- but what's this? It appears that SB has introduced a new twist that's going to tip the scales! In a brilliant move on his part, SB has decided to throw a major monkey wrench into L's gears right from the outset: not only are Ryu and Meta strong in their own right, and independent of each other so that both should perform at peak strength, L is also being challenged by a little something called Joke LFF! Could The Dog be L's perfect poison? I contend that it's more likely than you might think. He's an old school character that any gamer from the NES era should recognize, but he's also totally ridiculous and will look look just as out of place in the selection block as any other joke from this season. Plus, he got the perfect match pic! Let's not forget that the last time voters were offered a joke vote alternative to L-Block they jumped ship in droves, rallying ?-Block to a very easy victory over '07 champ- and this on the day when his strength should have been at its all-time height. In summation, Ryu is great in this format and should perform like a champ tomorrow, Meta Knight is very good in this format and should perform well also, and even though L-Block outdid Kirby, there will be no Donkey Kong tomorrow to hold MK back- instead, Blocky's the one who will have to deal with LFF, and The Dog will be the key to his defeat. (Now, how much of that writeup was honest reasoning versus wishful thinking? You decide!) When we take all of that wall of text into consideration, convert it into numbers, and cook it up in the big ol' pot, we come out with Ryu (Street Fighter) - 34.60% Meta Knight - 26.85% L-Block - 26.75% The Dog - 11.80% Death to the Block, you say? Why that sounds... delicious! Ngamer Says: Ryu > Meta Knight Guest’s Analysis - Big Bob Oh yeah, I signed up for one of these things. Hm... Well, L-Block won the contest last year. Big deal. He was riding on a high wave of momentum carried by the entire internet. People won't automatically rush to vote for him again in a little match like this. Sure, he'll be of decent strength, and if he wins this match he could possibly go on to win the entire thing again (assuming he gets past round 2), but I'm gonna go for the longshot and say he doesn't make it out of the first round. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:39:59 PM | message detail |
| Why not? Well, Ryu looked great last year, and
Street Fighter IV's been pretty heavily hyped, so he should maintain
that strength. I'd say Ryu's got first. Now...I think Meta Knight has
second here. He unexpectedly beat Peach and Wario last year, so he's
got some strength behind him. New Kirby game that predominantly
features him also just got released (though I really doubt it's that
big), but I'm gonna go with BrawlFear here. Meta Knight is easily one
of the most popular characters in the game, and I can see him getting a
huge fanbase from Smash. Not only that, but there's The Dog. While most people probably won't associate L-Block and The Dog as both joke characters, I must admit that many of the core fanbase on GameFAQs may abandon the block for what could possibly be their sole chance to vote for The Dog. And if this analysis sounds half-assed, meh. I'm more interested in school and Mega Man 9 right now anyway. Ryu - 39% Meta Knight - 25% L-Block - 22% The Dog - 13% Crew Consensus: So apparently you can win a contest, but the Crew still won't put you over Meta Knight of all characters in Round 1! Ryu > MK is the Crew pick, as you can see from the 10 posts of points we made (90% of them being "i hope this joke block loses c'mon voters save us") |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2008 8:45:28 PM | message detail |
| Um... I gotta go with yo here. While I believe L
goes out in this round or wins the contest... I'd put the odds at him
losing here at 10% or worse. The fact that Ryu > MK is the consensus is pretty much proof that the Crew has hope blinders on. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 8:46:18 PM | message detail |
|
Yeah, you can pretty much smell the desperation emitted from those analysis. >_> --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Electroplankton | Posted 9/30/2008 8:46:46 PM | message detail |
|
KP GET ON AIM --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| hochimnih157 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:47:03 PM | message detail |
|
If L-Block wins this match, then the contest is over. I'm not even kidding. --- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55 |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 8:47:18 PM | message detail |
|
hope blinders? meh, maybe for some, but if I thought the Block was
gonna win I would have picked it. I'm fine with the thing winning. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 8:47:25 PM | message detail |
|
might even vote for it --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:48:06 PM | message detail |
|
Remember when CATS almost beat Ansem and got all those votes out of nowhere? Yeah, Ryu and Meta-Knight are no Ansem, but if CATS can bypass a static fanbase, I can't see why L-Block can't either. Damn, I'm excited. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 8:48:56 PM | message detail |
|
Actually if I saw the pic before I wrote that I would've gone for Ryu > THE DOG. Just you watch, guys. THE DOG will destroy everything. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 8:50:18 PM | message detail |
| I still maintain that next round is where he goes out. 2 strong characters with dedicated fanbases and a pretty weak character in Amaastaseru |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 8:50:21 PM | message detail |
|
the train doesn't ride on "hope" it rides on believe --- Moltar Status: augh L-Block/Meta Knight/Ryu/The Dog - Bracket: Ryu > L-Block - Vote: Meta Knight (42/52) |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:51:03 PM | message detail |
|
Is everybody ready for L!!!!!!!! --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.* |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:51:15 PM | message detail |
|
Looks like this match will barely beat the Samus match in vote totals. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 36/48 Today's Match: Crono > Amaterasu |
| Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 8:51:46 PM | message detail |
|
And yeah... I do not work in hope blinders. ... except for Lloyd/Mudkip. The rest of my defeats, no matter how humiliating and for biased picks they were, I did believe them! --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:52:05 PM | message detail |
|
That pic almost makes me want to vote for The Dog... ...but it's Sir ****ing Meta Knight --- http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg Stay a while and breathe me in. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/30/2008 8:54:39 PM | message detail |
|
Though you're correct I no longer believe my analysis. Dogamania is runnin wild. Ryu - 32% The Dog - 26% Meta Knight - 25% L-Block - 17% Hope Meta-Knight wins though. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
