GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 580
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2008 7:26:25 AM | message detail |
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Wow, Crono went nowhere with the night vote, and fell pretty hard in ta short span during the morning. Could the Crono of the last few years (you know the one that disappoints) finally be resurfacing? Also, really liking Amaterasu's performance today. Rise, Ammy, rise! --- Moltar Status: augh Amaterasu/Crono/Frank/Kaim - Bracket: Crono > Ammy - Vote: Ammy (38/48) |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/30/2008 7:29:32 AM | message detail |
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Ammy's making me feel really bad about Crono/Ryu/Ammy/L, guys! If Ammy pulls more than a fodder-like %, L's gonna advance! --- "Dreaming of one day flying, it practices by leaping off cliffs every day." ~Bagon's Pokedex entry |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 8:14:24 AM | message detail |
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Crono's holding on fairly well now....don't think he's going to fall
too much further with the ASV. Hopefully he can end up above 49%. And
yeah, Ammy doing this well really concerns me for L-Block next round:
if she gets much over 10% it's hard to see how L loses. Hopefully
Meta-Knight can take out the block tomorrow with help from joke LFF. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 42/48 --- T-20 (104 way) Bracket: Crono > Amaterasu --- Vote: Crono |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 8:51:27 AM | message detail |
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I think the main argument against L is that: 1) He doesn't have the whole internet behind him this time 2) The joke is stale, and anyone who doesn't have Aspergers realizes this I still think he gets to round 2, but Ryu/Crono/Ammy is probably one of the worst groups he could be against. 2 strong characters with dedicated fanbases and probably the weakest character that will be in the second round. |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/30/2008 9:03:00 AM | message detail |
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the main problem is amaterasu i don't think ammy is exactly fodder.she's a midcarder...hell,look at what Balthier did this year vs gordon and scorpion,and amaterasu is considerably stronger than him. that,and the wii version could've given her a boost. if amaterasu is strong enough L may advance over Ryu... of course,i hope he just loses tomorrow. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 9:16:53 AM | message detail |
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Crono by the Hour: 1:00 | 50.72% 2:00 | 53.08% 3:00 | 51.17% 4:00 | 49.30% 5:00 | 46.10% 6:00 | 47.83% 7:00 | 46.30% 8:00 | 48.77% 9:00 | 50.20% 10:00 | 48.99% 11:00 | 50.18% 12:00 | 49.01% Crono did the worst in the dead zone, and actually rose from there to the before school vote. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 42/48 --- T-20 (104 way) Bracket: Crono > Amaterasu --- Vote: Crono |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/30/2008 9:21:48 AM | message detail |
| He did worst during the Europe vote, just like Frog did |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/30/2008 9:42:31 AM | message detail |
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goddamn it europe. well anyways,i really doubt Crono'll go below 49% here. he could rise up to 50% again but that's also unlikely...looks like it'll be very boring until tomorrow. |
| neonreaper | Posted 9/30/2008 9:49:44 AM | message detail |
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can you really blame Europe, though --- If it ain't broke, break it |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/30/2008 10:35:44 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 9/30/2008 10:37:51 AM | message detail |
| I still think Crono's doing fine here. He's not
blowing me away anymore or anything, but he's going to fall about where
I expected him to - probably around 48%. I don't really see that as
being any worse than last year, and I don't think people are giving
enough credit to Ammy here. This isn't really Crono disappointing
against fodder, it's Ammy impressing against Crono. --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/30/2008 10:39:07 AM | message detail |
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Today's match is a little weird to me...looking at how badly pre-Wii
Ammy beat Balthier and Balthier beat Frank West last year, their
numbers would suggest Ammy would have roughly doubled Frank at ~66.68%.
Though there's still a lot of time to change in today's match, right
now today's numbers suggest post-Wii Ammy gets ~62.92% on Frank... ...hmmm. Ammy's impressing against Crono, Frank's looking much improved against Ammy, and Balthier looked rather good against Scorpion/Gordon yesterday. I wish we had a chance to see Ada Wong to see how she compares (or at least Little Mac or Matt)...though Jade continued to suck. It's still worth noting that comparing characters like this is risky, but there are some clear gaps that should be considered. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 10:47:44 AM | message detail |
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Harrich, that's because looking at this 1v1 underrates the stronger
characters. Morgoth's model suggests that Frank gets 31.8% on Ammy,
which is actually a bit better than she would have managed last year. To me, Vincent didn't look impressive vis-a-vis Falco, and Crono isn't looking impressive vis-a-vis Ammy. --- Mustache...and green... |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/30/2008 10:48:58 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, I trust there are better models...where can I find his? I think that brings up the big question: Falco VS Ammy? --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/30/2008 10:51:18 AM | message detail |
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i give the edge to Falco solely due to "in a supposeldy close match go with nintendo" but it would not be a blowout.these two should be pretty close to each other.and Ammy certainly has chances to win. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 10:53:39 AM | message detail |
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cn's got an online calculator that goes one way: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48 And the explanation of the model (it's fairly intuitive, I think) is here: http://oraclechallenge.com/boards/detail.php?board=8&topic=37564294&message=23063 --- Mustache...and green... |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:00:00 AM | message detail |
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Good point HaR. For as much discussion as Crono and Ammy looking good
and what's his face flopping hard is getting, we seem to be forgetting
that the real outlier in this result is Frank. I mean he's still
fodder, yeah, but why is he so much stronger than last season,
seemingly? I can't see Dead Rising having sold many copies the last 12
months, it hasn't been re-released or ported anywhere (though a Wii
port should be coming soon), Frank is using an identical pic to what he
had in '07, and I see no reason for him to have underperformed in that
match. I mean why would Ada have held him back, or Balthier, both of
whom have 0 360 presence. If anything he ought to be looking worse THIS
year, what with another 360 character in the poll. It must be a case of... you know how Marcus Fenix was a mini-Master Chief last season? Frank West must be a super-mini-Master Chief. He's got a dedicated fanbase of like 15% that is bailing him out today, but so little of the other 85% of the site cares about him that even when you stick him against much much weaker competition (like last year) he can only manage a rise to about 20%. Must be something along those lines, that's about the only way this result makes sense. --- Check out the '08 Guru Site! http://thengamer.com/guru/ Other Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:06:35 AM | message detail |
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I think this proves my guess of something weird went down in Dante/Ada like it did with Dante/Leon. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 36/48 Today's Match: Crono > Amaterasu |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:11:02 AM | message detail |
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May be Capcom SFF, though then you'd think Ama would be dragging Frank
down, so maybe it's the similar genres or something both are in. Kinda
like the Leon/Dante stuff, except benefiting Ada more. Speaking of Capcom, would Ama having a strong fanbase hurt Ryu significantly? Capcom has so many franchises that it's hard to tell who SFFs what. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:11:33 AM | message detail |
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I disagree. Frank's looking a better than he was last year, but he's
still in the mid-fodder area and I wouldn't buy too much into someone
in that range fluctuating. And I haven't really run the math but I disagree with your assertion that Marcus has some sort of static fanbase. He cleanly beat Kefka in the first round, dropped a ton but cleanly beat both Kefka and Ocelot (both of whom should be around the same strength) in the following round, then did appropriately badly in his last match, with Auron and Ryu hanging around. Actually, I'm inclined to say he performed worse than he should have in that last match, which completely contradicts the Marcus has a static fanbase assumption. --- Mustache...and green... |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:11:58 AM | message detail |
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charmander6000 (#068) Actually, that makes more sense. If Dante and Leon were weird, I don't see why Dante/Ada wouldn't be as well. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:15:40 AM | message detail |
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I'm not buying Dante/Ada weirdness. Ada looked better relative to Balthier with Dante in the poll. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Tohoya | Posted 9/30/2008 11:15:50 AM | message detail |
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Of course Ammy is doing well in the morning, she has SGF! (Sun Goddess Factor) --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 11:20:54 AM | message detail |
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So Ammy and Frank are looking good, Crono and Kaim are looking bad. That about right? And Crono being a little weaker hurts L-Block, I think. He'll hurt the other characters without static fanbases less. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:23:01 AM | message detail |
| Basically, yeah. Pretty much the same as
yesterday, where Falco and GLaDOS looked good, and Vincent and Wander
looked bad. Of course, uber fodder like Wander (and apparently Kaim)
are going to look bad no matter how you slice it. --- Mustache...and green... |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 11:41:16 AM | message detail |
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wait, Frank West is an outlier here? seems about the same to me. I don't see why we were orgasming over Crono's performance last night and now it's a disappointment. to me this is Crono meeting expectations which, given his last few years, is pretty good. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/30/2008 11:42:58 AM | message detail |
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What tranny said. Crono always impresses at night and dies during the day. --- ExThaNemesis is the man. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:47:09 AM | message detail |
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This is what we do every Crono match. Crono vs. Bowser, night: Crono wins the male bracket, easily! Let's debate Crono/Samus. Daytime: Crono looks fine, but not very impressive..... Crono vs. Sonic, night: It's over; Crono wins. Sonic has no chance of coming back. Daytime: lol epic collapse. Crono vs. Vincent, night: Haha, Noble Nine wins again! Daytime: .....Crono collapsed again. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 42/48 --- T-20 (104 way) Bracket: Crono > Amaterasu --- Vote: Crono |
| MnMZero | Posted 9/30/2008 11:47:47 AM | message detail |
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I guess people were expecting a super ultra blowout by Crono even though we know that Europe's vote had to go somewhere between Ammy, Frank, and Kaim. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2008 11:57:11 AM | message detail |
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Crono's not doing terribly, but he's letting Ammy do better on him than
last year would suggest. Like I said, I'm disappointed in both Vincent
and Crono. Maybe the opposite is true, and Falco and GLaDOS are
stronger than we thought and Ammy got a nice boost from Okami Wii. But
I'm having some trouble imagining that Falco and Ammy are both in the
25-27% BL range. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 9/30/2008 12:09:06 PM | message detail |
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Falco and Ammy are likely more impressive than we thought. Crono's loss
to Vincent is still fresh in our minds, and we were all a bit hasty to
write Ada off as fodder... well, Turtle was. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| GameZACKS | Posted 9/30/2008 12:09:20 PM | message detail |
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Crono's performance is a disappointment (or rather welcome) to me
still. Then again I wasn't creaming myself over him last night, so
maybe you're not talking about me. Either way I've been saying anything
less than 50% from Crono here today would be pretty disappointing. Now
as much as we've seen the Noblers + Vincent underperform to our
expectations pretty much across the board, I'm starting to think it may
just be that we're all severely underestimating how hard it really is
to dominant in this format like 1v1s. Either way, suck it Crono! --- LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/30/2008 12:10:22 PM | message detail |
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look at the predictions most have crono at 46~48 anything over 49% is actually Crono overperforming. |
| GameZACKS | Posted 9/30/2008 12:13:01 PM | message detail |
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why? because that's what other people expected of him? Sorry but I really could care less what other people were expecting. --- LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 12:13:07 PM | message detail |
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I'm starting to think it may just be that we're all severely
underestimating how hard it really is to dominant in this format like
1v1s. this, only it's more of a problem for you than for others. most of us recognize that getting over 50% is pretty damn hard unless your fourpack is truly awful. that said, I'll post this again: Amaterasu 22.75% 31431 Dante 49.19% 67963 Little Mac 16.54% 22851 Matt 11.52% 15910 TOTAL VOTES 138155 --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 9/30/2008 12:13:11 PM | message detail |
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Considering that Crono's been the low rung on the Noble Nine ladder
since 2006, I'd say anything in the range of 50%, above or below, is
decent enough. And like I said, Falco definitely put up an excellent
performance and too many of us were quick to judge the capability of
Ammy's opponents. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| Spark Mandrill | Posted 9/30/2008 12:13:44 PM | message detail |
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GameZACKS (#084) Sorry but I really could care less UUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| GameZACKS | Posted 9/30/2008 12:17:37 PM | message detail |
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i can only hope that induced a groan 1/100th the size of every post you make --- LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS |
| MnMZero | Posted 9/30/2008 12:20:38 PM | message detail |
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Now as much as we've seen the Noblers + Vincent underperform to our
expectations pretty much across the board, I'm starting to think it may
just be that we're all severely underestimating how hard it really is
to dominant in this format like 1v1s. Yeah, I always looked at it as most people like the most popular characters to some degree, and a big reason for their strength is that they get a lot of the "default" votes. I don't really put too much into how much they are blowing their opponents out by, especially in this format where smaller fanbases can show through more. We've seen plenty of matches where characters that wouldn't be anywhere near each other 1 on 1 end up battling it out (mostly talking about the trail end of these polls). --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/30/2008 12:27:45 PM | message detail |
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Amaterasu 22.75% 31431 Dante 49.19% 67963 Little Mac 16.54% 22851 Matt 11.52% 15910 well,Dante is very strong.probably one of the "elite" characters.he impressed in all his matches last year but really,Frank West should be considerably better than both of those other people in dante's match,Amaterasu has likely boosted a bit,and i'm not too sure who'd win Kain vs Matt >_> |
| GameZACKS | Posted 9/30/2008 12:28:44 PM | message detail |
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He lost to Yoshi not to long ago... don't forget that. --- LONG LIVE GAMEZACKS |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 1:00:13 PM | message detail |
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Actually, that makes more sense. If Dante and Leon were weird, I don't see why Dante/Ada wouldn't be as well. I suggested this the other day out of semi-jest, though it makes sense...but then if people insist on Ammy getting into the Capcom-SFF, then Ammy should have been thrown off some too in both Dante/Ammy/Ada/Balthier and Pika/Dante/Leon/Ammy. I don't think that really works. There's something fairly odd, and we don't have anybody else to go off of for awhile. We won't get second looks at Baltheir, Frank, or Jade this year. Ammy's gonna have L-Block in the next round. We don't even get to see Dante or Leon for awhile longer (and they get to face each other again for even more cloudiness on this mystery), so...grrr. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/30/2008 1:01:58 PM | message detail |
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Hey guys, Crono shouldn't worry about Vincent! There's still a Ryu in
the way! Man, wouldn't that be something if L-Block ousted Crono in the
second round and Sandbag ousted Sonic in the second round as well? Chart from yesterday: Time | Balthier | Big Daddy | Freeman | Scorpion PHV | 22.65% | 17.99% | 30.04% | 29.32% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 24.26% | 17.09% | 29.42% | 29.24% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 23.43% | 17.90% | 28.99% | 29.68% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 22.56% | 18.32% | 29.12% | 30.01% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 21.20% | 20.57% | 27.47% | 30.75% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 22.31% | 20.61% | 26.02% | 31.06% | (22:00-24:00) Look at that Big Daddy Day Vote! Almost beat Balthier there, pretty impressive. It was Gordon's worst time though, and Scorpion just got better as the match went along. Balthier's definitely a night vote character, like nearly every FF that's not VII. Stats from yesterday: Scorpion – 50.00% Gordon Freeman – 48.61% Balthier Bunansa – 42.72% Big Daddy – 38.65% Fun Facts: Sub-Zero got 55.46% on Gordon in their second round match last year. In the end, Scorpion doesn't end up looking TOO bad. Noticeably weaker than Subby though not much, which is what I figured he'd be. Ada got 53.79% on Balthier last year, so while she's still weaker than Gordon and Scorps, it's still too close for comfort. I blame NewSquareFAQs! Ammy got 56.02% on Balthier last year, which puts her right there on the level with Scorpion and Gordon. Today's match almost seems to be verifying that. Who'd have figured Ammy actually has strength above the fodder level? And Frog's chart, for the tranman: Time | Frog | Ganondorf | KOS-MOS | Neku PHV | 28.25% | 44.99% | 18.03% | 8.73% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 25.58% | 39.83% | 21.17% | 13.42% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 23.05% | 43.68% | 19.71% | 13.56% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 23.09% | 46.31% | 18.30% | 12.30% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 23.96% | 44.10% | 19.68% | 12.26% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 23.95% | 42.46% | 20.73% | 12.86% | (22:00-24:00) --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 1:02:50 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and we do get to see Pikachu soon, but I don't think we're going to see the same Pikachu we saw in R3 last year. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2008 1:47:42 PM | message detail |
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Crono ASV is always fun to watch. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/30/2008 1:51:17 PM | message detail |
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I'll be laughing so hard if Pikachu is second in his match, which is possible if Arthas is as strong as I think his peak can be. --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 9/30/2008 1:55:16 PM | message detail |
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I'm liking my Pikachu > Arthas pick more and more by the day. I still consider it risky, but I guess it's not :( --- 38/48 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Crono > Amaterasu |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/30/2008 1:55:56 PM | message detail |
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I like this topic's opening message --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/30/2008 1:57:57 PM | message detail |
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Pikachu > Ike is actually the riskier pick, as its the upset pick according to gurus. --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| Scott_Pilgrim | Posted 9/30/2008 2:02:18 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
