GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 580
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2008 9:53:10 PM | message detail |
|
America is so screwed. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/29/2008 10:26:35 PM | message detail |
|
What a ****ty introduction. --- A surveillance camera!? http://img.imgcake.com//lastcalvin&hobbes.jpg |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 11:04:38 PM | message detail |
|
That introduction could be about the economy, or it could be about Russia sending its block to taint our contest again. Meta-Knight: American made. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/29/2008 11:05:59 PM | message detail |
|
save_us.MTK --- Moltar Status: augh Amaterasu/Crono/Frank/Kaim - Bracket: Crono > Ammy - Vote: Ammy (38/48) |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 9/29/2008 11:07:35 PM | message detail |
|
Ryu>Metaknight. Book it. --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
| RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/29/2008 11:13:11 PM | message detail |
|
Meta-Knight with 30% of the vote book it. --- A surveillance camera!? http://img.imgcake.com//lastcalvin&hobbes.jpg |
| Admiral Nobody88 | Posted 9/29/2008 11:14:17 PM | message detail |
|
Just realized i have L-block>Ryu, so i guess I won't be on the top 50 for much longer. --- Brawl friend code: 5412-9814-3696 |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 11:14:44 PM | message detail |
|
L's got a chance at coming in first, don't give up yet. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/29/2008 11:15:16 PM | message detail |
| Guys, if L-Block is beating Ryu tomorrow night,
will I even be allowed to post here? I'm thinking anything I say will
be responded with venom of some digital sorts. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Tohoya | Posted 9/29/2008 11:16:00 PM | message detail |
|
gogogogo Ammy! Static fanbase to allow her into round 3 L-Block > Ammy believe --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| MichaelWClark | Posted 9/29/2008 11:16:15 PM | message detail |
|
RPGGamer0 (#006) Ryu 40, Meta 28 L block 25, the Dog 7 --- Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 11:16:46 PM | message detail |
|
static fanbase more like got killed in round 3 or is this Last Place Factor oh god kill me --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2008 11:17:00 PM | message detail |
|
Guess that means you better say whatever you could say today then! --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| Admiral Nobody88 | Posted 9/29/2008 11:17:06 PM | message detail |
|
I know that, but then for some weird reason I have Crono>Ryu in round 2. --- Brawl friend code: 5412-9814-3696 |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 11:17:55 PM | message detail |
|
okay, yeah, those two things won't/can't happen. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Malakuko | Posted 9/29/2008 11:19:03 PM | message detail |
|
Ryu > L-Block --- http://img.imgcake.com//christ2.gif http://img.imgcake.com//dannynoriegaanimated.gif Mer NOICE! |
| bospsychopaat | Posted 9/29/2008 11:21:10 PM | message detail |
|
Oh look, what a cute fluffy wolf! >.> Amaterasu gets the kiddie vote? I think it's plausible and it explains why she died in the third round (Pikachu). Although I haven't looked at a single update chart for her. --- Life is to important to be taken seriously. - Oscar Wilde |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/29/2008 11:36:25 PM | message detail |
|
the more i think about it, the more it's hard for me to see crono >
ryu happen if l-block is in round 2. the dog not only does a bad job of
hurting ryu and meta-knight because it's (probably) so weak, but it
could hurt l-block. and weak as ammy is, i don't see it getting much
worse than the dog in terms of percentage. the closer l-block gets to
30, the closer crono and ryu need to be to both be above it, so it'd
basically require l-block to behave more like a normal character and
actually drop in % between rounds. --- DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716 |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 11:37:37 PM | message detail |
|
I really don't like the L-Block's chances of being stopped in R2 with this apparently boosted Ammy, let me tell ya. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/29/2008 11:39:07 PM | message detail |
|
I've been saying that if Ryu doesn't have a monster day tomorrow (say,
in first place by a good 8-10%), you may as well stamp L-Block's ticket
to the semifinals. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Admiral Nobody88 | Posted 9/29/2008 11:46:21 PM | message detail |
|
I actually be fine with L-block losing tomorrow just so I have one less
rogue joke character to worry about, forget about the points I would
lose. --- Brawl friend code: 5412-9814-3696 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/29/2008 11:51:35 PM | message detail |
|
It's much more significant than a rogue joke character, really. If
L-Block does well tomorrow, 90% of the Gurus may as well burn their
brackets. It's arguably the biggest match of the tournament (when the
hell have we said that about a first round match before?). --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 11:55:42 PM | message detail |
|
yeah, I just wrote that in my analysis for tomorrow. can't wait for this thing. I wanna see the picture of The Dog. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| wavedash101 | Posted 9/29/2008 11:56:37 PM | message detail |
|
He better be laughing --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 12:14:16 AM | message detail |
|
Crono comin' back to earth here. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 12:15:12 AM | message detail |
|
AND KAIM WITH A DOUBLE DIGIT PERCENTAGE UPDATE KAIMFAQS LIVES --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/30/2008 12:16:03 AM | message detail |
| Kaim performance of the year |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 12:17:51 AM | message detail |
|
TWO IN A ROW DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK I BEEN HERE FOR YEARS --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| satai_delenn | Posted 9/30/2008 1:05:21 AM | message detail |
|
...huh. So I come back from finishing Crisis Core to discover that Kaim is...terrible. Okay, Crono, let's do this thing right. --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/30/2008 2:15:36 AM | message detail |
|
I don't see why people are gasping at Ammy doing so well here. Kaim and
Frank suck so bad that someone has to pick up the excess percentage,
and Crono already has %50, so Ammy just looks good because she's facing
bad fodder. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/30/2008 2:35:37 AM | message detail |
|
We've never had a returning champ whose strength was so...disputed
before. We always knew that Link, Cloud and all their NN chums would be
fairly strong no matter what. L-Block's a whole different animal, and I
do hope next summer we see him in a "regular" contest, one v one
matchups. --- How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? "You're...the ****!" - Otacon to Snake, MGS4 |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/30/2008 3:04:37 AM | message detail |
|
I would bet L-Block bombs one on one, especially if there is any truth to the whole 28% theory. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/30/2008 3:06:19 AM | message detail |
|
i would have preferred seeing l-block 1v1 this year instead. after this
year, it won't be as unpredictable how l-block would fare 1v1. --- DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716 |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 9/30/2008 3:16:29 AM | message detail |
|
YESSS KAIM CUT! --- Xcarvenger: http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9123/chocobo34kg4.jpg For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| transience | Posted 9/30/2008 4:01:09 AM | message detail |
|
nice morning vote by Amaterasu. given how much Crono will fall in the afternoon, I wonder how high she can get. Frank West probably does the best then, though. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/30/2008 5:01:49 AM | message detail |
|
I could be wrong here, but I don't think Crono's going to fall too much
here. Yay, CT sucks during the day, but his competition sucks for the
entire 24 hours, so I doubt Crono's going to do too bad here. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/30/2008 5:10:23 AM | message detail |
|
Crono's not doing as well as I'd hoped- he's not much further ahead of
Ammy than Vincent beat Falco by, and he's still going to lose
percentage probably before we're done. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 42/48 --- T-20 (104 way) Bracket: Crono > Amaterasu --- Vote: Crono |
| TestIcicles | Posted 9/30/2008 5:37:17 AM | message detail |
|
If Crono can't keep it above 50% in this here match... damn that's ugly. --- mmm test icicles |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 5:43:18 AM | message detail |
|
I'm surprised that Crono is still fighting to be around 50%. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 36/48 Today's Match: Crono > Amaterasu |
| ffmasterjose | Posted 9/30/2008 5:45:28 AM | message detail |
|
Awww yeah Vincent > Crono to happen again --- 38/48 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII NP: Crono > Amaterasu |
| TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/30/2008 5:54:26 AM | message detail |
|
Vincent > Crono looking good. My biggest gambit up tomorrow -- I have Ryu > Meta Knight. Against my better judgment, but estimating that thing from match to match is impossible for me so I just hope really hard he goes out first round. Either L-Block was an inflated joke that gained momentum (unlikely) or he's strong partly because of the wide exposure of Tetris and carries an amplified version of the Pikachu-effect -- wide casual appeal to surface when other options are polarized (Square-Nintendo-Third Part) and it can mooch off every single one of those fanbases and take full advantage of close matches. Still doesn't explain how it got first over Link, though. --- B8BL Gambling Project: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=39885921 |
| TestIcicles | Posted 9/30/2008 5:55:40 AM | message detail |
|
Rallying across the interweb? It's pretty obvious that's what happened. --- mmm test icicles |
| TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/30/2008 5:57:39 AM | message detail |
|
Takes a heckload of rallying to carry it over Link. There's like 200k votes in that poll. --- B8BL Gambling Project: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=39885921 |
| TestIcicles | Posted 9/30/2008 5:58:50 AM | message detail |
|
Exactly. --- mmm test icicles |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2008 6:24:48 AM | message detail |
|
Crono's not doing as well as I expected (just fell under 50%? This
soon? Hmmm), but it's not going to convince me Vincent has it in the
bag for their rematch down the road yet. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 6:30:51 AM | message detail |
|
Here's hoping that rallying factors in for this match! Or better yet, it won't need to! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/30/2008 6:31:35 AM | message detail |
|
PartOfYourWorld (#009) You can bet I'll be posting here, and I can promise you ahead of time it will be ugly. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2008 6:33:31 AM | message detail |
|
L-Block > The Dog Believe. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 36/48 Today's Match: Crono > Amaterasu |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/30/2008 6:37:34 AM | message detail |
|
We should rally for Ryu. --- Justin's CB Points: 42 | Points After this Round: 46 Today: Crono > Amaterasu | Tomorrow: Ryu > L Block |
| hochimnih157 | Posted 9/30/2008 6:38:52 AM | message detail |
|
I told you guys Crono would be under 50% by morning. This is very bad
for him. Vincent won't even struggle to win this time around --- http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=55 |
