GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 579
| voltch | Posted 9/29/2008 11:14:19 AM | message detail |
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No Gordon,coming in second place does not count as winning the match,try again. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/29/2008 11:16:22 AM | message detail |
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so uhhh....does gordon have a chance to come back? Cause I could use the points --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/29/2008 11:21:07 AM | message detail |
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Of course. It's 215 votes --- How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? "You're...the ****!" - Otacon to Snake, MGS4 |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/29/2008 11:29:24 AM | message detail |
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He's trying again! --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 Looking for a new sig. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/29/2008 11:46:51 AM | message detail |
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Trying and failing. They're going neck and neck exactly like before only this time, Scorpion's ahead by 200. --- How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? "You're...the ****!" - Otacon to Snake, MGS4 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 11:47:39 AM | message detail |
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Guys calm down we still have an hour until the ASV. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:24:09 PM | message detail |
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CHEATING --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 12:24:53 PM | message detail |
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Assuming a constant Balthier (17) puts Gordon and Scorpion in the 20-21 range. Hmm. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Twilight Swift | Posted 9/29/2008 12:26:00 PM | message detail |
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yay scorpion =F --- *~Swift~* -part of epic Team Extha- 2007 NY Giants:: SBXLII Champs! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2008 12:27:54 PM | message detail |
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From the last topic: I would rather believe Balthier gained than both
Gordon and Scorpion dropping. Still, this match is too weird. As for the match at hand...come on Scorpion. I think he'll go into the night with a decent lead, but I really don't trust the board if it's too close toward the end of the match. I can see a rally for Gordon, and that would be scary business. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 12:28:30 PM | message detail |
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okay, two things 1. this is nothing like Kefka/Vercetti, it's just a close match 2. Orange Box being on the 360 doesn't suddenly make Gordon a day vote god or anything. I mean, you saw Glados yesterday. he'll be a slight bit better but not exactly great. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 12:29:06 PM | message detail |
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and I think it's a bit of both.. well, all three. Balthier doing better, Gordon doing better, Scorpion doing worse. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 12:31:14 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Scorpion OFFICIALLY FOR REAL has this. And we still don't have the next match pic. Did Bacon not learn from his mistakes? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 12:34:58 PM | message detail |
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After some thinking about it I've decided that Balthier doing better is
probably the most likely cause of the weirdness here. I mean... we all
thought Balthier was not going to be total crap last year. Maybe he
decided "hey I shouldn't be total crap" this time around. Guy certainly has the potential to be a midcarder given FFXII's sales and his status among the fanbase. Assuming Gordon is about equal with Scorpion now, that just means Balthier is a low midcarder... I can stomach that, and Duke's performance earlier in the contest certainly supports it. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| transience | Posted 9/29/2008 12:35:09 PM | message detail |
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yeah, unless this is a huge fluke, this one's done with. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/29/2008 12:35:18 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, this is over for real now sadly. --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 12:36:15 PM | message detail |
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Holy crap 50 votes in 5 minutes? Maybe Scorpion and Big Daddy will make this look more normal in the end yet. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| WarThaHedgehog | Posted 9/29/2008 12:36:27 PM | message detail |
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Balthier still has the ASV vote to deal with. He couldn't move much %
against Ada last year. I could see him having the weakest ASV of these
four. --- "Dreaming of one day flying, it practices by leaping off cliffs every day." ~Bagon's Pokedex entry |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:39:57 PM | message detail |
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And another small cut by Gordon. Come on Scorpion, you can outcheat him! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:40:15 PM | message detail |
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And Gordon follows it right up with a cut. --- Evvivan: Character Battle VII --- Score: 40/44 --- T-3 (30 way) Bracket: Scorpion > Balthier --- Vote: Balthier |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 12:40:42 PM | message detail |
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God damn voting patterns --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/29/2008 12:42:47 PM | message detail |
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goddamnit Scorpion you need to put this away right now because I've got you advancing next round with Vincent. --- ExThaNemesis is the man. |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:44:46 PM | message detail |
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goddamnit Scorpion you need to put this away right now because I've got you advancing next round with Vincent. Me too I'm kind of regretting switching from Falco now. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 12:44:48 PM | message detail |
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Gordon has a better chance of beating Falco next round than Scorpion does, no matter what happens here. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:45:25 PM | message detail |
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One vote lead increase Big Daddy's clearly cheating votes from Scorpion here --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:46:02 PM | message detail |
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Speaking of Big Daddy, he's been stalling Balthier for awhile now. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:46:33 PM | message detail |
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Gordon has a better chance of beating Falco next round than Scorpion does, no matter what happens here I uh... why is that? --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:46:40 PM | message detail |
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KamikazePotato (#024) Sounds good to me and my Vincent > Gordon pick. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 12:48:11 PM | message detail |
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I uh... why is that? 1. Big Daddy. While it doesn't seem to be hurting Gordon much, Gordon is still to benefit from it being gone more than Scorpion will. 2. Scorpion is casual bait, which is not a good thing with someone like Vincent in the poll. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:50:03 PM | message detail |
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Scorpion's back on the cheating warpath! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 12:53:35 PM | message detail |
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Say what you want about Extha being silly, but there could be cheating here. There are definitely parallels to Kefka/Vercetti. 1. One dude with cultish fanbase does WAY better than expected right out of the gates. 2. Mainstream guy with day vote starts showing signs of making significant gains, then night vote character shuts him down out of nowhere and starts stalling for a while. Repeat. I mean, I don't think it is and it honestly shouldn't matter as Scorpion is going to win by a decent margin it looks like, but who knows. This topic is way too quick to just shoot down cheating as an option because apparently it's "a childish excuse" or "a cop out for an unexpected result" I don't know. (No, I won't be crying about cheating even if Gordon comes out to win, just saying it shouldn't be entirely ruled out) --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/29/2008 12:54:52 PM | message detail |
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Except that Gordon has a reason to have a better day vote this year while Kefka is Kefka. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2008 12:54:59 PM | message detail |
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I would rather hear about Scorpion losing some fighting game fans to
Falco than bad-ass fans to Vincent...and I don't think either will
actually matter, separately or coupled. I think Big Daddy's absence has some legitimacy though, but I still wanna see that before I believe that. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 12:56:37 PM | message detail |
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Doesn't even matter if they're cheating. After last year's contest,
cheating should be expected, so there's no reason to whine about it
since this is what you bargained for by entering to win a few hundred
bucks. Gordon's doing his best to outcheat Scorpion, but the Scorpion cheaters are still doing their job! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 12:57:00 PM | message detail |
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He's still a PC character primarily. You need to rule out his base strength and only
consider the Orange Box boost when thinking about his day vote. He
shouldn't be totally terrible with it but a game being released to the
X-Box isn't going to totally revamp your voting patterns. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| MnMZero | Posted 9/29/2008 12:57:51 PM | message detail |
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2. Scorpion is casual bait, which is not a good thing with someone like Vincent in the poll. Uh, again did you not see Scorpion beat Frog's ass last year with Samus in the poll? --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 12:59:47 PM | message detail |
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And I still think Big Daddy is possibly hurting Scorpion more by being
casual bait. Their voting patterns certainly suggest that Gordon
Freeman and Big Daddy aren't linked very much... Daddy's mirroring
Scorpion, not Gordon. I think Gordon wins out over Scorpion next round but not because Big Daddy is gone at all. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/29/2008 1:00:02 PM | message detail |
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400-vote barrier outcheated! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| Lopen | Posted 9/29/2008 1:02:40 PM | message detail |
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Yeah. Scorpion is a weird dude. I think the devoted fighting game
fanbase will prevent him from getting beaten too bad. But he definitely
seems like the type of character who has a really high ceiling when
casual friendly characters aren't in the poll. Who knows. Maybe he's
got a good chance of beating Gordon next round yet. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| MnMZero | Posted 9/29/2008 1:23:13 PM | message detail |
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But he definitely seems like the type of character who has a really
high ceiling when casual friendly characters aren't in the poll. Why? Before last year, the only person he'd actually beaten was Pac-Man in 2002. And as far as his x-stats strength goes, he's been consistent as hell (2004 Auron was never adjusted for SFF). Really, Scorpion seems more like a character with a hardcore fighting game fanbase than "casual bait". Most of his fans probably stem back from the early 90s era arcade and SNES/Genesis days. There's nothing that suggest that today's casual gamer would be fans of him. Scorpion probably is just a weaker Ryu as far as fanbases go. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/29/2008 1:24:26 PM | message detail |
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The weird thing about Scorpy is I don't think that its the hardcore
fighting fanbase thats supporting him. Mortal Kombat is essentailly a
joke among hardcore fighting game fans. They'd back Ryu or even
Nightmare over Scorpy, I'd assume.. --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/29/2008 1:32:31 PM | message detail |
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the "hardcore fighting game base" is not very big. Scorpion is much
more of a casual draw. he's iconic to a lot of people, like Ryu. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2008 1:34:14 PM | message detail |
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I completely disagree about Falco. I don't see how BOTH of these characters wouldn't whip that ass. --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2008 1:34:47 PM | message detail |
| Am I the only one worried about Gordon mounting a comeback attempt, just like he did against Duke last year? |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/29/2008 1:35:07 PM | message detail |
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I completely disagree about Falco. I don't see how BOTH of these characters wouldn't whip that ass. I can't let you do that, Ulti. --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/29/2008 1:37:46 PM | message detail |
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I don't see how BOTH of these characters wouldn't whip that ass. I don't see how they both couldn't whip Balthier's ass, and they didn't. --- "Frerleorleolreolreorleolo!"--Crash Bandicoot |
| MnMZero | Posted 9/29/2008 1:38:20 PM | message detail |
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the "hardcore fighting game base" is not very big. Scorpion is much
more of a casual draw. he's iconic to a lot of people, like Ryu. Well "core fighting fanbase" or whatever you want to call it, I'm just pointing out that Scorpion seems to be like a less popular Ryu more than any other character as far as consistency goes. So if Scorpion is "casual bait", you might as well call Ryu "casual bait". And the reason KP even brought up casual bait is that he was claiming that Scorpion would fold in the presence of a much stronger character, even though he cleanly beat Frog (and Midna) with Samus in the poll. Wasn't Frog the favorite around here? I was really just arguing the notion that Scorpion would fold easily because he's casual and voters would abandon him. I see nothing pointing to the sort. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/29/2008 1:39:09 PM | message detail |
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Yesterday's match says Falco's good for about 35.5% on Vincent, which
is a pretty solid midcarder (26% on BL if Vincent's at 37%, which seems
reasonable considering he beat Crono). That's up there with
Scorpion/Subby at his best...and he's really not looking like his best
today, this close to Mr. Freeman. --- Mustache...and green... |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/29/2008 1:39:14 PM | message detail |
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Oh and on cheating, I think people are quick to dismiss it because
Bacon has proven multiple times he doesn't do anything about it. --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/29/2008 1:40:17 PM | message detail |
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Don't forget Bacon is sick atm, and barely checking gamefaqs. People
could essentially get away with cheating without Bacon even knowing. --- Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg. |
