GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 577
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2008 5:16:01 AM | message detail |
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Oh, Frog. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2008 5:30:33 AM | message detail |
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I liked Ganondorf better when he was bleeding % like crazy. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 5:41:05 AM | message detail |
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Frog appears to be headed towards his biggest win ever today. --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 7:00:17 AM | message detail |
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Wow, Ganon fell far last night. Good to see him cleaning up with the morning vote now. Frog is plummeting, but he still managing to eek out KOS-MOS on most updates. No chance for her. --- Moltar Status: augh Frog/Ganondorf/KOS-MOS/Neku - Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog - Vote: Ganondorf (26/36) |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/27/2008 7:06:42 AM | message detail |
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I just have to say that the Balthier/BD/GF/Scorpion pic is one of the most badass I've ever seen in this contest. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2008 7:12:48 AM | message detail |
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BlAcK TuRtLe Posted 9/27/2008 1:14:34 AM message detail #372 Not strange at all if you people would learn to listen to me. KOS-MOS will stem the bleedy as the night/morning come, but I think Frog will do good with the day vote. And I'm now a lot less worried about Big Daddy upsetting Gordon there. The closeup shot with the HL logo is the one he got either against Phoenix or against Leon, both matches he did great in. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/27/2008 7:16:21 AM | message detail |
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Freeman relies on his Half-Life mark, with it he may approach Scorpion. Also Ganon is tearing Frog up with the morning vote. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls Character Battle 2008: Points 26/36 Today's Match: Ganondorf > KOS-MOS |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/27/2008 7:30:08 AM | message detail |
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so does this prove anything about KOS-MOS's TJF factors or anything of the sort? though the picture isnt exactly boob oriented so it's probably still in the jury. --- *is Dranze* Crash/Nightmare/Raz/Samus - Bracket: Samus > Nightmare - Vote: Crash (24/30) |
| Malakuko | Posted 9/27/2008 7:31:10 AM | message detail |
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this might be the least exciting match Frog's ever been in --- http://img.imgcake.com//christ2.gif http://img.imgcake.com//dannynoriegaanimated.gif MerNOICE! |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 7:37:38 AM | message detail |
| Frog currently has 55.60% on KOS-MOS, and he
shouldn't lose too much more relative to her, as it is a saturday. We
are currently about 4700 votes behind last saturday's poll
(Marth/Duke/Niko/Kefka) in votals....we were about 3600 votes behind at
1 AM, so while the lack of picture is responsible for most of the gap,
it hasn't been closing since then. --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| ZFS | Posted 9/27/2008 7:39:03 AM | message detail |
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Good show from Frog. Not even gonna struggle to win this. --- let's mosey |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 7:54:14 AM | message detail |
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rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states
that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving
more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all
evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario
blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the
one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. So does this mean we all ended up agreeing that Samus was/is in fact stronger than Mario indirectly? --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2008 8:43:45 AM | message detail |
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I don't think so. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2008 8:52:11 AM | message detail |
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Aaaand KOS-MOS is doing almost as bad as Frog with the morning vote. What. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 9/27/2008 8:53:31 AM | message detail |
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Ganondorf > Neku INCOMING --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 8:58:58 AM | message detail |
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And Frog has now surpassed his largest lead against Riku, making this his largest win ever! --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| NotTerrafire | Posted 9/27/2008 10:08:01 AM | message detail |
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woohoo epic win KOS-MOS has the same trends as Frog, so he's basically got this. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/27/2008 10:09:07 AM | message detail |
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Hmm, Frog's holding up really well here. Wonder if he's got a chance next round... Nah... --- CB7 Score: 28/36 English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_ |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/27/2008 10:14:49 AM | message detail |
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Hey, Phones actually won a 5 minute update against KOS-MOS at 8:47.
That's pretty much the best I could have hoped for a TWEWY character. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 10:19:21 AM | message detail |
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Wonder if he's got a chance next round... Nah... A chance to what, beat Nightmare for third? Nah... --- Moltar Status: augh Frog/Ganondorf/KOS-MOS/Neku - Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog - Vote: Ganondorf (26/36) |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2008 10:21:29 AM | message detail |
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btw Samus, Ganondorf and Nightmare in the same group? That's so much awesome in one fourpack I wet myself. --- Moltar Status: augh Frog/Ganondorf/KOS-MOS/Neku - Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog - Vote: Ganondorf (26/36) |
| ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 9/27/2008 10:24:50 AM | message detail |
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^^^ It could have been great but due to Samus and Ganondorf being there, it's now just average .. Frog and Nightmare are the only redeeming ones --- Awaiting Final Fantasy XIII |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2008 10:43:49 AM | message detail |
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Samus/Ganondorf/Nightmare/KOS-MOS would've made it a truly incredible fourpack. --- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/27/2008 10:44:47 AM | message detail |
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Eh, they're all pretty boring to me. --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2008 10:52:48 AM | message detail |
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Chart for yesterday's match: Time | Crash | Nightmare | Raz | Samus PHV | 15.37% | 22.71% | 9.25% | 52.67% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 17.80% | 22.05% | 8.74% | 51.42% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 18.94% | 21.04% | 7.60% | 52.03% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 16.82% | 22.13% | 8.06% | 52.54% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 16.09% | 23.63% | 8.00% | 52.28% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 15.85% | 23.65% | 8.31% | 52.19% | (22:00-24:00) Pretty consistent throughout for...well, just about everyone. What a boring match. Nightmare did pretty well with the ASV though, and once again, the first night vote was the worst time for a Nintendo character (By the way, EASILY the worst time for Ganondorf so far). Yesterday's stats: Samus Aran – 50.00% Nightmare – 30.30% Crash Bandicoot – 24.45% Raz – 13.63% So far, Ganondorf has 64.25% on Frog, 69.34% on KOS-MOS, and 77.78% on Neku (Speaking of which, impressive recovery for him after the pic was posted). Frog has 55.72% on KOS-MOS and 66.08% on Neku. KOS-MOS has 60.75% on Neku. Fun Facts: Ganondorf got 77.07% on Ratchet last year (Ouch for Neku...). Knuckles got 59.58% on KOS-MOS last year. Scorpion got 57.90% on Frog. Scorpion vs. Knux: Who you got? --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2008 10:54:13 AM | message detail |
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At least Frog being in the next round will give me someone to care about. I was hoping Neku would do better than this, but handheld characters usually don't do that well. If he can get up to 13-14% though, I'd be happy. If he's anything like Sho, he's a day vote character. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 11:01:42 AM | message detail |
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Ganon's gains are diminishing fast and he won't go too much higher than
this. The rest of the day on the weekend consists of day vote
characters slowly losing their momentum through the afternoon, and a
much longer second night vote than usual. As for next round, Ganon is
deservedly the favorite, but I'd give Nightmare a chance at taking
second there, and wouldn't rule out Frog completely. --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2008 11:21:09 AM | message detail |
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Frog (2005c) VS Ganondorf (2005c) Frog has a strength of 24.97. Ganondorf has a strength of 33.64. Ganondorf wins with 62.89% of the vote! A win of 23,909 with 92,766 total votes cast. Interesting, so Frog doesn't seem to have dropped too much, or Ganondorf wasn't SFF'd at all by Samus in 2005. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/27/2008 11:40:40 AM | message detail |
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Let's try this again for all my bored brothers and sisters HARDEST Arthas / Ike / Pikachu / Spy Donkey Kong / Tails / Tidus / WCC Shepard / Magus / Sandbag / Sonic L-Block / Meta Knight / Ryu / The Dog Alucard / Captain Falcon / Diddy Kong / Kratos Aurion Big Boss / Jinjo / Kirby / Lucas Dante / Hogger / Laharl / Ramza Dedede / Pit / Hayabusa / Zero Balthier / Big Daddy / Gordon / Scorpion MacMillan / Leon Kennedy / Riku / Siegfried Heavy / Jill Valentine / Kratos / Ocelot Mewtwo / Ness / Pac-Man / Travis Touhdown Kain Highwind / Chief / Layton / Raiden Amaterasu / Crono / Frank West / Kaim Argonar Axel Steel / Cloud / Midna / Miles Banjo / Olimar / Mega Man / Nero Falco / GlaDOS / Vincent / Wander CATS / Drake / Squall / Yoshi Nana / Ratchet / Sephiroth / Tifa Auron / Marcus Fenix / Rydia / Sub-Zero Chris Redfield / Fox / Sora / Tim Wesker / Sackboy / Snake / Vivi EASIEST So, just how out of touch am I, in your opinions? --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Twilight Swift | Posted 9/27/2008 11:45:50 AM | message detail |
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BT and the other gurus here, if Ganon wasn't SFF'd at all by samus in
his match vs her, and there's a chance he's stronger here due to
results, is it possible for him to hold off or syphon samus votes? I
mean.. hmm, stifer competition here than what samus had, and 10%
less... and Samus can't SFF anyone. Think Ganon can RSSF her and make it tight in the next round? --- *~Swift~* Cream of side B Fanboyism. Vote for Ganon, or else you will DIE. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2008 11:48:06 AM | message detail |
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Seems mostly right. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Twilight Swift | Posted 9/27/2008 11:50:51 AM | message detail |
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 10:54:14 AM (#012) maybe.... there's a chance. What I want to know is if the TP/Brawl boosted Ganon can syphon from Samus next round. Yes I know she too has MP3 and Brawl, but Zelda is held in much higher esteem around here and Samus can't SFF anyone. It'd be the best upset of the entire tournament to me if Ganon got out of this division alive. That or made it closer than it should be. --- *~Swift~* Cream of side B Fanboyism. Vote for Ganon, or else you will DIE. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/27/2008 11:54:39 AM | message detail |
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Judging by Zelda's performance, Ganon should perform just fine against
Samus (well enough to get into the next round comfortably), but I
wouldn't expect anything more than that. While Samus isn't an SFF
goddess, Ganondorf didn't prove that he could take advantage of SFF
against Luigi last year, going even with him for two rounds. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2008 12:09:33 PM | message detail |
| Siphon Samus? Samus beat Ganondorf's ass 60-40 in '05, and since then she has looked even more dominant while Ganondorf seems to have faltered (getting smoked by Vincent, losing to Luigi). There is no possibility of something other than Samus > Ganon next round. |
| Twilight Swift | Posted 9/27/2008 12:14:10 PM | message detail |
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true, which sucks. id have liked to see samus > ganon > vincent oh well --- *~Swift~* Cream of side B Fanboyism. Vote for Ganon, or else you will DIE. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2008 1:06:37 PM | message detail |
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Just saw this nice little article: http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=2096 In one day, Mega Man 9 sold 60k on the Wii. It will be interesting to see how well the game does for the 360/PS3, but I think it's safe to say Mega Man will be impressing this year. Maybe enough to take down Snake? |
| Twilight Swift | Posted 9/27/2008 2:01:47 PM | message detail |
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i wonder if it'll help x as well i mean ... X is the more badass mega man form why not? --- *~Swift~* Cream of side B Fanboyism. Vote for Ganon, or else you will DIE. |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/27/2008 2:06:24 PM | message detail |
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So does this mean we all ended up agreeing that Samus was/is in fact stronger than Mario indirectly? I threw you guys a bone after being such an ass about that match for so long. Couldn't hurt, and for all we know it might be true. Even this year, Samus looks as good or better than Mario. --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| consolefreak | Posted 9/27/2008 2:14:48 PM | message detail |
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but I think it's safe to say Mega Man will be impressing this year. Maybe enough to take down Snake? You're in for a big surprise if you think Mega Man is coming anywhere near Snake this year. --- 28/36. Today : Ganondorf > Frog. Tomorrow : Vincent > Falco Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 2:26:21 PM | message detail |
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Samus's SFF abilities are underrated, I think. When has she ever proven
herself to be terrible at SFF outside of that Mario match? She's not
good at SFF, sure, but she's pretty high up the Nintendo totem pole.
And Ganondorf has no chance whatsoever at beating Vincent to get out of
this division- he couldn't beat Vincent without Samus in the poll. --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/27/2008 2:27:57 PM | message detail |
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>_> I do not like Mr. Frog He's not doing as well as I thought --- Justin's CB Points: 30 | Points After this Round: 34 Today: Ganondorf > Frog | Tomorrow: Vincent > Falco |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2008 2:38:02 PM | message detail |
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Argh, Ganondorf is doing too well for my tastes. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2008 2:38:59 PM | message detail |
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He's doing about where we pegged him, isn't he? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2008 2:40:39 PM | message detail |
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Doesn't matter. He's still doing too well for my tastes. It's okay though. Vincent for 50%+ tomorrow! Terrific Ten, here we come! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/27/2008 2:40:43 PM | message detail |
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>_> I figured Frog would be higher and Ganon would be lower. Especially considering Chrono DS is coming out soon and Zelda didn't do very well even considering she was against Mario. --- Justin's CB Points: 30 | Points After this Round: 34 Today: Ganondorf > Frog | Tomorrow: Vincent > Falco |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/27/2008 2:49:11 PM | message detail |
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Zelda did quite well considering she was against Mario, for me,
actually. Ganon will probably (hopefully) fall off quite a bit from
here to the end- it's the weekend, meaning the second night vote exists
and is traditionally one of the worst times of the day for Nintendo
characters. If he ends at 43%, that would be 9% below what Samus got,
with Samus having the stronger pack, which seems about right. I was
hoping that Ganon would be weakened by this format, but perhaps he is,
and it's just being masked by all of his opponents being RPG characters. Frog has stabilized and appears ready to start going up again. Hopefully he can get back up to at least 24.50% to cover the over/under in spread betting. (And ideally, higher, so we can hope in his victory next round). --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way) Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2008 2:50:57 PM | message detail |
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Zelda looked fine. Mario was the one who looked bad and was supposed to make Zelda look bad. Either way, Snake's looking stronger than both Mario and Samus, and he hasn't even had a match yet! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/27/2008 2:55:03 PM | message detail |
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What the...? Random Neku spike! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| satai_delenn | Posted 9/27/2008 3:04:08 PM | message detail |
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Woo! KOS-MOS is all like "Follow my lead" and Neku's all like "Screw that!" 15%, here we come...! >_> --- Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/27/2008 3:09:27 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf said "Pick it up, Phones!" and Neku was like "I'm there!" and then Frog only gained 7 votes on Neku. --- Mustache...and green... |
