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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 576

KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:22:06 PM | message detail
Things back to normal.

*goes to sleep*

*in 20 minutes*

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
creativename | Posted 9/26/2008 10:22:40 PM | message detail
Do pics matter? Did Toon Link and Zero Suit Samus and Solid **** screw them up to losing/near losses?

Pics definitely matter. Wind Waker Link making him lose to Cloud, I really really doubt it - I considered Cloud the favorite based on x-stats going into that match, before we knew about WW Link pic, because Cloud did better on Sonic than Link would have been estimated to do the previous year. But, I can't say that it's utterly impossible WW cost him the match.

Zero Suit Samus and Solid **** had huge effects for sure.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2008 10:23:11 PM | message detail
His day vote is pretty bad, but whenever he goes against someone who isn't Kingdom Hearts or Nintendo, he seems to be at least competent with the day, which should be more than enough to prevent KOS-MOS from doing anything at all.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/26/2008 10:23:41 PM | message detail
Frog's largest lead on Axel: 1903

He's already well on his way here, and while I haven't really looked at KOS-MOS day vote history, in no way can she be Axel-like. Fair to call this one over.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:24:22 PM | message detail
Looking at the graph, when the morning hits Frog and Neku will converge at KOS-MOS and have a three-way fight for second
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 26/36 Today's Match: Ganondorf > KOS-MOS
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:24:47 PM | message detail
Yeah unless KOS-MOS has this lead in triple digits in the morning I think it's safe to say she's cooked.
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Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Gaddswell | Posted 9/26/2008 10:26:12 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like this one's over. Only Neku seems to be doing anything with the pic.
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http://i93.photobucket.com/albums/l53/xKyuzo/Frog20-20Laugh20Front.gif
http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2008 10:27:23 PM | message detail
I'd also like to point out that in Frog/Liquid, Liquid took the lead in the dead hours, and Frog built it back up with the morning vote. Liquid didn't go on his tear until the afternoon.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:28:14 PM | message detail
Frog from 2004=/=Frog now.

Frog now has a much worse day vote, all the CT characters do.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/26/2008 10:28:17 PM | message detail
Considering Sho only went up as the day progressed, Neku's looking pretty good right now.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Xuxon | Posted 9/26/2008 10:28:57 PM | message detail
i wouldn't expect kos to do anything for at least 15 more minutes. that's when kefka started dropping.
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Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:29:22 PM | message detail
Eh, KOS-MOS has gone up in about as much % as Neku... but it's just not enough because more of the damage is coming from Ganondorf not Frog.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:30:46 PM | message detail
Good god Frog.
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CB7 Score: 28/36
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/26/2008 10:30:54 PM | message detail
Man, Ganondorf is getting worked.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/26/2008 10:31:12 PM | message detail
Do pics matter? Did Toon Link and Zero Suit Samus and Solid **** screw them up to losing/near losses?

Acctually yeah, TL did cause Link to Lose acctually <_<
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:31:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, both Frog and KOS-MOS increased there. I don't think one is going to stray too far away from the other.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Gaddswell | Posted 9/26/2008 10:31:41 PM | message detail
What's with these random Frog / Ganon updates. They happen at the exact same time. >_>
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http://i93.photobucket.com/albums/l53/xKyuzo/Frog20-20Laugh20Front.gif
http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
paraboxx | Posted 9/26/2008 10:31:42 PM | message detail
So, the pic's been up for half an hour now.

At the last pre-pic update (12:55), Frog had a 10.4% lead on Kos-Mos.

In that time, it's gone down by...1.55%?

...I...guess that's significant...?
red sox 777 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:32:06 PM | message detail
No, Frog won't win the day vote against KOS-MOS. Yes, this match is over. 1:30 in:

Frog's lead on KOS-MOS: 1191
Frog's lead on Axel: 1069
Frog's percentage of Frog/KOS-MOS votes: 59.51%
Frog's percentage of Frog/Axel votes: 58.92%
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 32/36 --- T-5 (72 way)
Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog --- Vote: Frog
creativename | Posted 9/26/2008 10:33:42 PM | message detail
After 30 minutes with the pic, I think we can pretty much put to rest the notion the idea that KOS-MOS would be closer to Frog in terms of vote gap if there had been a picture from the start. He'd be up by more.

And it also seems likely that Neku was hurt the most by no picture, although that could also just be either his natural trend, or the fact that the first hour has more bracket-driven/who-you-want-to-win driven votes and the only match here is Frog vs. KOS-MOS.

While you can never say never with Frog, it's tough to see KOS-MOS coming back here - she's bad with the day and Ganon will push both their percentages down so low that it will be tough for her to make up votes.

But even if this is never a real match, we still got some of Frog's trademarked excitingness in terms of the no-picture-effect debate :)

Frog now has a much worse day vote, all the CT characters do.

This is true.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:34:35 PM | message detail
Woah, Neku has really gained since I last saw the poll.

Yay
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:35:57 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-11.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-12.jpg

This went unnoticed in the craziness.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/26/2008 10:36:44 PM | message detail
Glados and Wander are understandably boned. Second pic looks pretty fair.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
paraboxx | Posted 9/26/2008 10:38:04 PM | message detail
Ugh, for the love of...

So much for my big GlaDOS > Falco upset.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:38:35 PM | message detail
GlaDOS' horrific pic factor was discussed. We all knew this was coming.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:38:49 PM | message detail
GlaDOS doesn't like...have any pics. This is really the best she could have gotten.
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CB7 Score: 28/36
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
creativename | Posted 9/26/2008 10:38:51 PM | message detail
I wonder if Frog will manage to actually make a cut or two on Ganon overnight. Does anyone know how good Frog's overnight vote is?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-11.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-12.jpg


Thanks for that :) Added to the gallery.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/26/2008 10:39:05 PM | message detail
I actually checked for the next pic once this pic came up. They weren't up then.

So, how well is GlaDOS gonna do? Phoenix level or higher?
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http://i93.photobucket.com/albums/l53/xKyuzo/Frog20-20Laugh20Front.gif
http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/26/2008 10:39:22 PM | message detail
Ugh, for the love of...

So much for my big GlaDOS > Falco upset.


Uhh... That's the ONLY pic of GlaDOS there is. What did you expect?
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 10:39:26 PM | message detail
Show a better pic of GlaDOS. They don't exist. That's the main reason I backed off of it.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
__hiei__ | Posted 9/26/2008 10:40:02 PM | message detail
Wander looks like some random NPC you'd find in a FF game

...i don't even understand GlaDOS's picture
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:40:02 PM | message detail
anyway KOSMOS with the stall watch out frog
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CB7 Score: 28/36
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:40:08 PM | message detail
GlaDOS will be lucky to break 12%.

You have to understand that even Portal fans won't recognize her. Her name and body appear for 95% of the game.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
paraboxx | Posted 9/26/2008 10:40:34 PM | message detail
GlaDOS' horrific pic factor was discussed. We all knew this was coming.

I'm not just talking about GlaDOS, here. I'm talking about Falco.

He's the only character I can make out in the whole damn pic.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/26/2008 10:40:41 PM | message detail
I've never seen that badass a pic of Gordon before (well, I think it was used last year in the second round, but not with the HL symbol so prominently displayed). Scorpion looks great too. Balthier got the best he could have hoped for... heck, it's all good.

...how did Big Daddy get nominated again?
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The_Ocelot2 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:41:56 PM | message detail
I nominated Big Daddy, didn't you?!
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/26/2008 10:42:08 PM | message detail
The Top 50 is starting to do better when matches go just as planned. Only 24 people fell off the Top 50 today. darkmelfonts, icarus21, person500, FFBronco, Cubs2004Champs, briancr92, dakota379, CGMFerVer1, blackhawk137, t3hguitarman, otaku100, eternityasifall, WholeWeek, ishaan_500, matt_lewis15, granpajoe, JayLv100, NHaman, EvilNinjaDuck, projectsanity, RockmanX_Zero, shadowpup5, Keitas_413 and Zotoblitz did not have Samus > Nightmare and have fallen off.

Two people scored half points and survived. Former first place MasterDuncan03 and former second place aznballer119 did not have Samus > Nightmare but survived.
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creativename | Posted 9/26/2008 10:42:21 PM | message detail
Wander>Glados is the upset I would've considered.

I think he'll be closer to Wander than to Falco.

Vincent will just plain wreck the match though.
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Midget_Fetish | Posted 9/26/2008 10:42:36 PM | message detail
Big Daddy is the face of Bioshock, that's why.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/26/2008 10:42:49 PM | message detail
Bioshock was incredible. You haven't played it quaaarma come on
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:43:13 PM | message detail
GlaDOS is a she, BTW.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/26/2008 10:43:21 PM | message detail
If anyone upsets Gordon, it'll be the Big Daddy not Balthier.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/26/2008 10:43:29 PM | message detail
Sho's best time was the ASV, right?

Neku's looking to be high fodder if he keeps this up. He might end up as the next Isaac.
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http://i93.photobucket.com/albums/l53/xKyuzo/Frog20-20Laugh20Front.gif
http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2008 10:43:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, GlaDOS's bad pic doesn't surprise me. Wander looks awful, but man, even Vincent and Falco don't look good imo.

Second pic more than makes up for it though. Everyone looks great there, even Balthy
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Moltar Status: augh
Frog/Ganondorf/KOS-MOS/Neku - Bracket: Ganondorf > Frog - Vote: Ganondorf (26/36)
Xuxon | Posted 9/26/2008 10:43:48 PM | message detail
I wonder if Frog will manage to actually make a cut or two on Ganon overnight. Does anyone know how good Frog's overnight vote is?

Frog's absolute best percentage update overnight was still a bit worse than his first 5 minutes. So, even being generous with the pic factor and giving him a 30% update, I wouldn't count on it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:44:54 PM | message detail
I made the Wander pic, and while I have no excuses for the horrible background, there really are no pics of the guy. Almost as bad as GlaDOS.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
creativename | Posted 9/26/2008 10:45:27 PM | message detail
And I really need to go to sleep, long early day tomorrow - was planning on being in bed already. But I didn't realize it was Frog match day, damnit. Can't miss Frog match talk :)
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__hiei__ | Posted 9/26/2008 10:45:30 PM | message detail
also on vincent's picture

why the hell use a picture with ingame graphics when there's tons of CG of him available?

>_>
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 10:46:15 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS is stalling pretty nicely now. About 800 votes too late, though.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
creativename | Posted 9/26/2008 10:48:20 PM | message detail
If anyone upsets Gordon, it'll be the Big Daddy not Balthier.

Look how far we've come from GFNW to Gordon being favored over a Final Fantasy character, and the icon of one of the most critically-acclaimed games of the past couple years.
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