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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 575

transience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:56:51 PM | message detail
pretty impressive night vote for Crash.. makes me wonder if his day vote will come through. maybe his early vote just sucks.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:58:34 PM | message detail
yeah looks like his early vote is ass. I don't think we have a match here, but Crash will make it respectable.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 11:04:56 PM | message detail
Alright, it's 2 AM, so I'll make one last comparison of this match with Crono/Vincent before going to bed.

Nightmare's Gains:

1st hour: 825
2nd hour: 305

Lead: 1130
Nightmare's percentage of Nightmare/Crash votes: 58.13%

Crono's Gains:

1st hour: 663
2nd hour: 322

Lead: 985
Crono's percentage of Crono/Vincent votes: 55.89%

Yeah, Crash isn't going to make a match of this, but it quite notable that Nightmare outdid Crono the first hour and actually fell behind his pace the second hour.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 11:07:57 PM | message detail
Intuition still tells me that Nightmare will actually take the day vote over Crash, without checking Nightmare's matches from the last contest.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 11:10:24 PM | message detail
We should be able to tell a lot after 4 AM- that's when Crono fell off a cliff, and that's where trends for this match will probably diverge from that one. Crono actually did a fair bit worse with the early morning vote (4-7) than the ASV.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
transience | Posted 9/26/2008 12:36:15 AM | message detail
FINALLY, a cut. yeesh.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 2:37:34 AM | message detail
The next few hours could be interesting. Nightmare has a respectable day vote but from here out Crash is a machine. Respectable day vote as well but a monster of a morning vote. He raked in about 4% from here to the end of his match last year. I'm not convinced this is set in stone yet.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/26/2008 2:38:33 AM | message detail
it is

it's set in stone
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 2:43:15 AM | message detail
There were times last year when Crash cut Bomberman, Phoenix and Magus. He's going to make gains on Nightmare at some point and he's already stalling.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 2:44:13 AM | message detail
Crash Cut!!!

1 vote cut, he's got this one nailed.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/26/2008 2:44:23 AM | message detail
gains

not a massive comeback
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
transience | Posted 9/26/2008 2:46:27 AM | message detail
Crash is gonna need to stop any gains from Nightmare in order to use that supposedly huge day vote to win, and there's another eight hours before school lets out. Nightmare's no slouch in the day, either - this isn't Frog or anything.

it looks like Crash could be down 3000 votes easy by 3pm. he won't come back from that. if he can somehow stop the bleeding though he's got a very very small chance.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 2:48:26 AM | message detail
Crash won't be winning any day votes. SMAUS and Nightmare go up, Crash and Raz go down, book it.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 2:48:57 AM | message detail
Now that's a more substantial cut.

The thing is with regards trends it's possible Crash could be beating out Nightmare for the rest of the entire poll. If Crash has 18 hours of dominance would you discount him?
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
transience | Posted 9/26/2008 2:49:15 AM | message detail
Crash probably has the best day vote here.

Samus and Nightmare are also good during that time though.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 2:51:02 AM | message detail
Nightmare's no slouch in the day

True, Nightmare is average in the day but at worst I'd say Crash could match him and edge him in the ASV.

it looks like Crash could be down 3000 votes easy by 3pm. he won't come back from that.

That won't happen, Crash's strongest time is the morning. He needs him under 1000 at least by then.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 2:51:48 AM | message detail
I still think Crash's day-vote is overestimated just because he was against the day-vote job squad last year. We'll see how it goes down, though. This isn't really the morning vote yet but rather the dead hours... not really a day vote beast wants to be winning.

Morning vote ain't startin for another 10-20 minutes... as you can see SMAUS is still plummeting.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 2:53:35 AM | message detail
eh once the Europeans start waking up that's when the "morning" vote starts. You can see it when people like Crash or Shadow stop the suck.
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 2:59:45 AM | message detail
5-6 Contest time is also when uber night vote people really start tearing into things. Towards the end you can think that maybe the morning vote is starting, but oftentimes people who do well right now get trampled by the morning. If Crash keeps doing well in two or three updates, maybe you can start sounding the morning vote alarms.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 3:03:41 AM | message detail
SMAUS + 0.03%, everyone else (including Crash) - 0.01%

See. That is what the start of a morning vote looks like, gentlemen.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/26/2008 3:04:03 AM | message detail
oh wow crash!
i lost my main account betting on crash last year
foolishness oh dear
tempted to do the same thing again though, no one can deny those first three crash games were excellent
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2008 3:06:09 AM | message detail
Wow, what a boring match.

A few thoughts before I get 2 hours of sleep:

- Kaim is going to be weak as ass. Everyone says Lost Odyssey was too boring, cookie cutter and un-inovative, and Kaim himself is easily the most boring, apathetic main character I have ever seen
- it will be interesting to see what happens next round in Mario's group. Is Mega Man/Nintendo SFF enough that X is hurt to the point that Mudkip can slip by? Will Zelda being beaten by another non-150 pokemon wind up as hilarious as I think it will?
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/26/2008 3:06:42 AM | message detail
I just want to see Crash start to suck now at getting votes since his percentage is going too high. I guess he just has a killer night vote. He should slow down in the morning vote and then in the day vote.

Samus is going down in percentage too, but she'll go back up with the day vote. Nightmare should also benefit from the day vote. Raz will likely have a bad day vote like Crash too.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
transience | Posted 9/26/2008 3:19:01 AM | message detail
Samus isn't really great with the day vote or anything. she probably goes up a little, but not a lot.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 3:25:01 AM | message detail
Alright, well, things are pointing to Crash being 4REAL, to steal KH's expression again, with the morning vote. Could be interesting if he keeps this up... don't think he will, though... also thinking his ASV will be weaker than his morning... just intuition, again... and maybe some anti-Crash bias. <_<
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 3:28:32 AM | message detail
Course just as I say that Nightmare and Samus thump Crash down in the next update ha ha awesome yes no day vote for you! Keep it up guys dammit.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/26/2008 3:37:28 AM | message detail
Oh boy, Crash. I may have Nightmare in my bracket, but who wouldn't want to see Crash actually do something?
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
Meg and Fiona are the scum of the field.
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 3:43:00 AM | message detail
I think my sentiments should make that obvious. And no, not just for points.

Crash n burn, Bandicoot. The more you drop, the happier I am. Let's see a drop in that Lead 3 whoo.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe And with that, I'm done
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 9/26/2008 3:48:00 AM | message detail
My 2nd division was perfect...First time in a contest!Yeah I am that good!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/26/2008 5:08:38 AM | message detail
Why would anyone be "anti-crash"? He had 3 brilliant games and argubly the best racing game of that generation. Anything that happened after was as a result of Naughty Dog bailing.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/26/2008 5:36:26 AM | message detail
uumm.. I thought Crash would do just alright with the morning vote, but why is he stealing it from Samus?
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Today's prediction: Crash 15.93% - Nightmare 23.75% - Rad 8.94% - Smaus 51.38%
Status: OK
charmander6000 | Posted 9/26/2008 5:48:29 AM | message detail
He's not exactly stealing from only Samus, both Nightmare and Raz are taking big hits as well.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 22/32 Today's Match: Samus > Nightmare
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/26/2008 5:51:10 AM | message detail
Well looking at last year's results, Crash did exactly the same thing in his match... so I guess it all makes sense
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Today's prediction: Crash 15.93% - Nightmare 23.75% - Rad 8.94% - Smaus 51.38%
Status: OK
H__RR____H | Posted 9/26/2008 6:09:58 AM | message detail
I've got Nightmare, but I've gotta root for my boy Crash. I'll be SHOCKED if he comes back, but man...I'm hoping for it.


Also, way to go on the categorized updating Leonhart; it looks sharp and it personally helps me out. Thanks!
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Lobby Hero
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg
Link The Hylian | Posted 9/26/2008 9:26:23 AM | message detail
If I had it my way Raz would be advancing today with Samus.

Better character and way better game than Crash or Nightmares games.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
Zaxop | Posted 9/26/2008 9:32:49 AM | message detail
^ lol. The way you say “Nightmare games” makes me pretty sure you have no idea what Nightmare is from…
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Mmmmmmmmmm Brains!!
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/26/2008 10:06:35 AM | message detail
If this was a "Vote for the Games they represent" contest I'd be extremely disheartened by Raz losing.

But for as much as I love (and everyone should love) Psychonauts, Raz himself isn't that great of a character.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Quest For a Second Championship: 26/32 Points. Fear X.
Link The Hylian | Posted 9/26/2008 10:49:01 AM | message detail
"^ lol. The way you say “Nightmare games” makes me pretty sure you have no idea what Nightmare is from…"

Ok...Soul Calbur.

Which turned to crap after like the second one btw.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2008 10:53:46 AM | message detail
I guess it's because I was too old when he was popular, but I never saw Crash as anything other than Sony's lame attempt to cash in on a mascot platforming character. Then again, I never really was a fan of 3-D platformers aside from Mario 64
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
__hiei__ | Posted 9/26/2008 11:33:18 AM | message detail
well,I played Crash 2 and 3 and they were very enjoyable games.

the Crash racing game for PSX was good too.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/26/2008 11:34:47 AM | message detail
the two GBA platform Crash games are really underrated too
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Today's prediction: Crash 15.93% - Nightmare 23.75% - Rad 8.94% - Smaus 51.38%
Status: OK
Yesmar | Posted 9/26/2008 12:10:11 PM | message detail
Man, L-Block's matches last year make no sense. I was trying to look at them and come up with some kind of conclusion as to how the Block affects everyone else in the poll's relationships with one another, and I've got very little.

In one match (Round 3) Snake massively underperforms on Riku when compared with the Round before (and Kratos too for that matter). Then the next round everyone performs on each other like expected. At first I thought this implied that in cases where characters would get less than 60% on each other one on one, the Block doesn't affect them, but in other cases, the more popular character suffers. But then in the final, which is the same circumstance as Round 4, everyone overperforms on one another, and when you look at L's first round match, Kirby doesn't appear to have underperformed on Larhal by that much. Weird weird, matches.
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"I serve.... a higher authority...."--Geno
red sox 777 | Posted 9/26/2008 12:12:00 PM | message detail
Snake underperforming in round 3 can be explained by the sprite round, I think- he always does badly there.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
__hiei__ | Posted 9/26/2008 12:14:43 PM | message detail
Vincent got an horribly weak fourpack. he may outperform samus % wise.
Yesmar | Posted 9/26/2008 12:17:03 PM | message detail
Snake underperforming in round 3 can be explained by the sprite round, I think- he always does badly there.

*Doh!* Thanks for reminding me. I completely forgot about that.
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"No matter how far we go, all we see are ruins. How can this be our future?"--Knuckles the Echidna
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 12:41:03 PM | message detail
As I'd predicted, with the ASV Nightmare is starting to dominate Crash. Day vote machine my ass.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 12:42:43 PM | message detail
I'm surprised more people haven't taken KOS-MOS in the next match. FAWCM and all that, but its not like Frog has looked impressive at all recently.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
greatone10 | Posted 9/26/2008 12:47:52 PM | message detail
This has the potential to be close. Who the hell in 2008 picks against Frog in a close match? Besides, Xenosaga ain't getting any younger, while CT has a remake out in November.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2008 12:49:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, I took KOS. I had to ask myself... would I take KOS-MOS over Axel? Yeah, I probably would. I also consider KOS-MOS's round 1 pack to be more difficult than Frog's round 1 and round 2 pack, and she outdid him in both.

Plus, rooting against Frog is more fun.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/26/2008 12:51:47 PM | message detail
Of course, is the match is close Frog will just cheat his way to victory. KOS-MOS has to be winning by a decent amount from the start, and...well, we'll see tonight.

Still, only 8% of Gurus picked her. I ended up choosing her simply because it was a great upset no one bit.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10