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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 575

creativename | Posted 9/25/2008 9:32:40 PM | message detail
You could to give Frank the edge over Kaim just because we've actually seen him, but Frank's pretty weak. I could easily see Kaim beating him out for 3rd.

And if he does get 3rd over Frank, it'd probably be by a comfortable margin.
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Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 9:32:53 PM | message detail
The only support I have for Kaim is:

A. Got in the bracket with ZERO b8 support.
B. I've heard of Lost Oddysey with ZERO b8 support.

X-Box 360 RPG? Seems like a decent casual upset pick ala Altair (obviously much weaker than Altair, but similarly left field) I think. Plus I don't really think Amaterasu is all that.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:33:13 PM | message detail
Hmm....Crash currently has 42.22% of the Nightmare/Crash votes. At this point last year, he had 40.56% against Bomberman, and ended at 47.08%. Nightmare had 23.24% against Snake/Vyse/Rayman, and he ended at 22.47%. This match has some potential still.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:33:16 PM | message detail
Sho Minimamoto/Neku Sakuraba/Kaim Argonar/Luke fon Fabre best 4-pack ever I think so.
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CB7 Score: 24/32 - Hooray Division 2.
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
DpObliVion | Posted 9/25/2008 9:33:16 PM | message detail
Since when does being Tales level make you a lock to lose to Frank West anyway?

Frank West - 20.13%
Jade Curtiss - 8.45%

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:34:18 PM | message detail

KleenexTissue50 (#304)
Sho Minimamoto/Neku Sakuraba/Kaim Argonar/Luke fon Fabre best 4-pack ever I think so.



Kaim > Luke. Damn SFF.
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i am false
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:34:28 PM | message detail
Amaterasu is, as KH would say, 4REAL.
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CB7 Score: 24/32 - Hooray Division 2.
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 9:34:39 PM | message detail
Lost Odyssey is way ahead of TWEWY as far as mainstream recognition goes. B8 is skewing the world. I'm sure Kaim nukes Sho and Neku.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
__hiei__ | Posted 9/25/2008 9:34:53 PM | message detail
Luke looked considerably better than Jade this year

people should've nominated Asch instead as he's basicaly a badass version of Luke.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 9:35:37 PM | message detail
great update alert
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Moltar Status: augh
Crash/Nightmare/Raz/Samus - Bracket: Samus > Nightmare - Vote: Samus (22/32)
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 9:35:48 PM | message detail
Lost Odyssey doesn't have "mainstream appeal". it's the biggest JRPG for the 360, but have fun naming second place.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
ZFS | Posted 9/25/2008 9:35:56 PM | message detail
Kaim for second is a big upset pick. I can't see him being that strong. Lost Odyssey had a good sized marketing push from Microsoft, but it didn't sell like crazy or anything. Think it was around 400,000, which is good all things considered and well above your average Tales game, but I don't know if that'd be enough to get by Amaterasu. Frank West, though? Can't see Kaim losing that.

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let's mosey
creativename | Posted 9/25/2008 9:36:11 PM | message detail
X-Box 360 RPG? Seems like a decent casual upset pick ala Altair (obviously much weaker than Altair, but similarly left field) I think. Plus I don't really think Amaterasu is all that.

I agree with you. 2nd place is a stretch, because Amaterasu is no pushover, but I think Kaim is above the Sho/Neku level. He just seems to be more of a casual type than them.
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redrocket | Posted 9/25/2008 9:36:24 PM | message detail
Blue Dragon

that was hard

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/25/2008 9:36:46 PM | message detail
Lost Odyssey sold 500k here. It was a pretty well received Jrpg, from the guy who created Final fantasy, and its the closest we've had to a real final fantasy game since FFX.
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Bacon, please just give me purgatory already. MyWorldisCrono has already been suspended for 7 days, the length of purg.
creativename | Posted 9/25/2008 9:38:18 PM | message detail
I'm sure Kaim nukes Sho and Neku.

Yup.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 9:39:58 PM | message detail
I only mention Sho and Neku because LO and TWEWY are always side by side in the top 100 FAQs, and because TWEWY has a far more fanatical fanbase. I could see a lot of people (hello) abandoning Kaim for Crono.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
DpObliVion | Posted 9/25/2008 9:40:32 PM | message detail
I never considered Frank West/Kaim with some mainstream 360 SFF though, good news for my bracket, go Amaterasu!

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NEW YORK GIANTS: SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!
Vote for **CRASH BANDICOOT** - Booyah, Grandma. Booyah.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:40:40 PM | message detail
sword sff strikes again
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CB7 Score: 24/32 - Hooray Division 2.
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:41:20 PM | message detail
Alright Lost Odyssey is not mainstream. It may be moreso than TWEWY, but it's not mainstream.
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CB7 Score: 24/32 - Hooray Division 2.
English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_
ZFS | Posted 9/25/2008 9:41:31 PM | message detail
I could see a lot of people (hello) abandoning Kaim for Crono.

bad move

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let's mosey
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 9:42:05 PM | message detail
Ok, from the looks of it, I was wrong about Kaim's strength....I'd never heard of him, and figured he'd be super weak as a character in an obscure RPG....which is apparently less obscure than I thought. And the 0:35 update was great for Nightmare, but I'm still not convinced this doesn't end up close. This match feels ominously like Crono/Vincent.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 9:42:16 PM | message detail
Amaterasu really didn't impress me that much last year as much as Balthier flopped. Ada Wong probably beats Amaterasu pretty easily without Dante there, that's all I'm saying. When Ada Wong is looking good to beat you, you pretty much are a pushover.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
creativename | Posted 9/25/2008 9:42:31 PM | message detail
Of course it's not mainstream, I don't think anybody said that.

I just looked and he said "more mainstream appeal", which is definitely true.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 9:43:03 PM | message detail
comparing Nightmare/Crash to Crono/Vincent is hilarious on multiple levels. you either have far too much respect for Crash's day vote or far too little for Nightmare's.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
creativename | Posted 9/25/2008 9:44:10 PM | message detail
but I'm still not convinced this doesn't end up close. This match feels ominously like Crono/Vincent.

I can pretty much guarantee Nightmare/Crash will not end up close.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/25/2008 9:45:59 PM | message detail
This match feels ominously like Crono/Vincent.

Wow.... This might be the worst comparison EVER in these topics and that says a lot.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/25/2008 9:46:02 PM | message detail
Nice showing by Raz so far. I'd expect him to improve significantly tomorrow as well, being an Xbox character and all.

A bit disappointed in Samus. She's currently behind what Snake did last year, though it's fairly close.

Nightmare - 22.97%
Snake - 56.71%

Nightmare - 22.41%
Samus Aran - 52.59%
creativename | Posted 9/25/2008 9:48:51 PM | message detail
Nightmare is probably a bit stronger this year.

And tranny, what in the world do Kaim and Crono have in common other than being from RPGs? I wouldn't think their fanbases have much overlap at all outside of that. Their games were released eons apart in video game terms.
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Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 9:53:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, if you're going to name someone that's going to hurt Kaim, go for Frank West.

I don't buy that, either, but it's got a better chance than lopsided Crono support.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 9:53:14 PM | message detail
all I'm saying is that the most popular character in the poll by far overlaps with Kaim more than he does the others. Odyssey is a throwback RPG made by the guy who made Final Fantasy and was marketed as such - tell me that doesn't appeal to Squareheads.

I didn't say it was significant, I just said that he would need every vote he could get.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 10:00:50 PM | message detail
Never mind, Nightmare has this. Crash has a great day vote, but Nightmare is much, much, better than Crono/Magus.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/25/2008 10:03:20 PM | message detail
HOLY CRAP CRASH BANDICOOT CUT just kidding guys see you in 23 hours
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:04:49 PM | message detail
Crash has a great day vote...

Because he beat Magus, Phoenix Wright... and... Bomberman?

Yeah, sure.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
__hiei__ | Posted 9/25/2008 10:05:24 PM | message detail
whoa!

Crash just cut!

....
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 10:06:47 PM | message detail
He gained about as much on Magus as Vincent gained on Crono, and Vincent has a pretty good day vote- or at least a very good not-first hour vote.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:08:56 PM | message detail
Crono should not be compared to Magus with day votes. Crono simply does well at night... he doesn't roll over and die during the day like Magus.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 10:14:52 PM | message detail
Crono is not that much better than Magus....he went from a little under 68% an hour in to a little under 70% at the end (with a 3 AM start time, but the time shift should affect both). And we are comparing a Magus who was getting beaten by Phoenix for half an hour, and a Crono was doing extremely well early in a highly anticipated match.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/25/2008 10:19:55 PM | message detail
Obvious match today. Over 99% of those in the Guru and BOP had Mega Man X in first and over 94% for Mudkip in second. So as you would expected, the Top 50 got murdered. 37 people fell off the Top 50 today. aznballer119, DarkTerraFlare, JohnFKerry, zsaszz, johntheking2000, thokash, Xeriel, TyForce, ShikamaruXXX, nez77, kuhblice, h0l1c, DanKadir, groesbeck90, shively08, FarFromSober, Reece0607, The_Mighty_KELP, Spidertos, xDeathjesterx, Bonedaddy08, Saro88, kumidaiko, airblade369, DreamwaIker, Paul_Star, migulic, SilverMarquis, TimmyK1927, hhap52, onibirdo, swacon, Joey788, dualblades, m_ganzc, nechrid and foxhoundunit_3 did not have Mega Man X over Mudkip as yesterday's winners and have fallen off.

6 people scored half points and survived. Cubs2004Champs, CGMFerVer1, otaku100, projectsanity, shadowpup5 and Zotoblitz managed to keep their positions on the Top 50 despite scoring half points.

Congrats to the 7 people on the Top 50 who got it right. WalterMelon, MasterDuncan03, ZeroCleric, darkmelfonts, RagingNiak, haruo214 and Burstrate scored full points on the match.
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Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:25:31 PM | message detail
Hmmm, I guess I overrated Crono a bit. Seems in his match with Sonic he lost like 4% during the day. Same as Magus did with Knuckles. Still... beating Magus, Bomberman, and Phoenix Wright during the day is not that impressive. The only reason I'll give it any consideration is that Crash gained about 4%... but still... that's like... about the most night crew possible. Replace Bomberman with Kefka and you're golden.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:31:12 PM | message detail
hrm, Nightmare's kinda dying here.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 10:33:55 PM | message detail
Nightmare's gains the past 3 updates: 16, 16, 3, giving him a total lead of 965.

Just for fun, Crono's gains against Vincent these 3 updates: 67, 8, 15, for a total lead of 856.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:34:53 PM | message detail
you're like HRRH with Frog -- everything comes back to Crono or something from CT for you!
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:34:59 PM | message detail
err Ness, not Frog.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:35:35 PM | message detail
Nightmare and Crash Bandicoot: Battle of the elites, apparently.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 10:35:53 PM | message detail
well so much for looking like a stall
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 10:42:16 PM | message detail
By the way, I know this comparison is amusing you, but this is one time when looking at the percentages rather than the vote deficit might be more helpful. Nightmare's got a larger gap with less percentage to go around for him and his opponent due to Samus mauling this much worse than Link was. Things are looking much worse for a Crash Bandicoot comeback than they did for a Vincent comeback.

Specially since Crono beat the tar out of Vincent with the board vote, whereas Nightmare needed the board vote to start to die out to start to break from Crash. Nightmare is not frontloaded.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/25/2008 10:48:28 PM | message detail
Damn, Crash almost won two updates on Nightmare. It'll probably be a matter of time until Crash finally does win an update.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/25/2008 10:56:21 PM | message detail
Crash almost won an update, but failed to do so. He only kept Nightmare's lead even from the previous update.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 10:56:42 PM | message detail
And there's our first stall of the match, 10 minutes after Vincent's first cut.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 28/32 --- T-8 (119 way)
Bracket: Samus > Nightmare --- Vote: Samus
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