GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 575
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 4:29:11 PM | message detail |
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Mudkip's trends are to be frontloaded in every voting block. 6am is the same way. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 4:46:54 PM | message detail |
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Note that this is a weekend match, so the trends aren't as pronounced, but we'll give it a shot: Time | Duke | Kefka | Marth | Niko PHV | 24.51% | 24.68% | 29.19% | 21.62% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 27.51% | 24.03% | 26.05% | 22.40% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 28.91% | 20.91% | 27.48% | 22.70% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 25.69% | 20.18% | 31.07% | 23.06% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 26.44% | 20.18% | 30.73% | 22.65% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 24.06% | 22.37% | 30.61% | 22.95% | (22:00-24:00) Even though it was a weekend, Kefka stayed true to character and died at sunrise. Good night and early morning vote for Duke, and Niko was actually fairly consistent throughout the match. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/25/2008 4:47:51 PM | message detail |
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Has anyone brought up the possibility of X > Mario or X > Mudkip in the next round? --- Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0 The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 4:48:15 PM | message detail |
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Round 3, yes. Round 2, ain't gonna happen. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 4:48:20 PM | message detail |
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Man, Zidane's trends are so...pronounced. Just look at that reversal from the night to do. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Tohoya | Posted 9/25/2008 4:59:08 PM | message detail |
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All aboard the Vincent > GlaDOS > Falco train Woot Woot! --- "There she lusted after her lovers, whose genitals were like those of donkeys and whose emission was like that of horses." --Ezekiel 23:20 |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 9/25/2008 5:00:35 PM | message detail |
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I'm pissed that SBAllen always ignores my pics. >_> --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 5:02:50 PM | message detail |
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To day. Is what I meant. Also, lol random 70 vote spike for Kip. Watching these updates is just fun. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2008 5:17:39 PM | message detail |
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That's a neat idea, Leon, so I'm going to steal it and add it to my spreadsheet. <_< --- Mustache...and green... |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/25/2008 5:20:36 PM | message detail |
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Has anyone brought up the possibility of X > Mario or X > Mudkip in the next round? X > Mario might be possible, if Zelda hurts him enough. X > Mudkip could only occur if Zelda severely leaches Mario's votes. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 5:23:30 PM | message detail |
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Note: Also a weekend match. Time | Altair | Guybrush | Isaac | Lucario PHV | 39.68% | 12.25% | 23.95% | 24.12% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 41.23% | 15.39% | 21.92% | 21.46% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 40.48% | 18.84% | 19.07% | 21.61% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 43.15% | 13.01% | 21.03% | 22.81% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 45.52% | 12.64% | 19.83% | 22.01% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 46.24% | 12.79% | 20.51% | 20.46% | (22:00-24:00) Surprisingly, Isaac and Lucario were pretty consistent all day. Good grief Guybrush early morning vote, and Altair is a day vote beast and a half. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 5:38:19 PM | message detail |
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Time | Liquid | Luigi | Roxas | Sho PHV | 34.07% | 40.16% | 17.12% | 8.65% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 36.02% | 37.46% | 17.80% | 8.72% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 32.65% | 40.95% | 18.79% | 7.61% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 34.58% | 40.38% | 17.62% | 7.43% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 30.72% | 40.06% | 21.07% | 8.15% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 32.61% | 38.07% | 20.56% | 8.76% | (22:00-24:00) Man, awesome first night vote for Liquid, came within 1.5% of Luigi. Roxas's day vote came almost entirely at the expense of Liquid, and...Sho is an ASV guy? --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 5:39:48 PM | message detail |
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that early morning vote on weekends is more like a deep night vote. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 5:51:14 PM | message detail |
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Time | Bowser | Deckard | Geno | Phoenix PHV | 39.95% | 13.88% | 19.19% | 26.98% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 40.85% | 16.15% | 15.24% | 27.75% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 46.26% | 14.20% | 14.07% | 25.48% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 45.99% | 15.11% | 15.92% | 22.98% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 47.68% | 13.45% | 17.20% | 21.68% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 44.10% | 14.57% | 18.55% | 22.77% | (22:00-24:00) Holy Bowser day vote. Geno seems to act like a traditional Nintendo guy. He even has a true Power Hour! Deckard actually beat him a couple of hours overnight. Phoenix dropped a good bit, but it wasn't abysmal. Kefka's day vote is still worse! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:07:14 PM | message detail |
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Time | Fei | Knuckles | Mario | Zelda PHV | 14.04% | 20.08% | 39.73% | 26.16% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 16.91% | 20.27% | 37.77% | 25.05% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 12.96% | 19.94% | 42.06% | 25.05% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 14.65% | 20.21% | 40.15% | 24.99% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 12.40% | 22.09% | 41.75% | 23.75% | (14:30-22:00) SNV | 15.76% | 21.03% | 39.82% | 23.39% | (22:00-24:00) Fei is really the only one in this group with noticeably pronounced trends. So much for Knux having a great day vote. He went up a good bit with the ASV, but not much more than Mario did. Mario, Luigi, and Bowser all have one thing in common: They have a BAD first night vote. And that's Liquid's best time. It should be interesting to see what Liquid can do there. We might be looking at a big comeback attempt. As a matter of fact, most Nintendo characters so far have had bad first night votes, except for Zelda, which was her best time, for some strange reason. She actually went down with the ASV. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:19:10 PM | message detail |
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Time | Lloyd | Mudkip | Tom Nook | X PHV | 15.28% | 33.40% | 8.25% | 43.07% | (0:00-1:00) FNV | 16.14% | 29.25% | 7.92% | 46.69% | (1:00-6:00) BSV | 16.94% | 31.84% | 8.89% | 42.34% | (6:00-9:00) DSV | 16.62% | 29.22% | 8.20% | 45.95% | (9:00-14:30) ASV | 16.93% | 31.04% | 9.35% | 42.67% | (14:30-22:00) Note that there are still 45 minutes left in the ASV, so this will probably change slightly. Mudkip...consistent? Yeah, apart from that Power Hour, he's been pretty much in the same area. X is the one who's jumping all over the place here. Like Mega Man himself, he's a night vote guy. Tom Nook is an ASV guy? Lloyd's been pretty consistent, too. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:22:19 PM | message detail |
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Finally, some preliminary stats! Mega Man X – 50.00% Mudkip – 40.87% Lloyd Irving – 27.21% Tom Nook – 16.32% Mudkip gets 66.71% on Lloyd and 80.03% on Tom Nook. Lloyd gets 70.01% on Tom Nook. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2008 6:29:29 PM | message detail |
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That way of doing things definitely underrates the winner, which is
perhaps why this topic thinks certain characters have been
underperforming in their blowout wins. --- Mustache...and green... |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 6:32:49 PM | message detail |
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Tom Nook totally rocked Kefka in the day. who can forget? --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2008 6:35:59 PM | message detail |
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Sir Thomas Nook actually won some 5 minute updates against Kefka, if I recall correctly. --- Mustache...and green... |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:36:48 PM | message detail |
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X is doing fine here. I don't think he's on Mega Man's level like many
thought he would be, but I was personally expecting him to be right
around here. X may beat the Blue Bomber directly (though I'm not sure I
really buy that either), but Mega Man himself perhaps benefits from
people thinking of all forms of him when they vote, like the Series
Contest. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 6:37:21 PM | message detail |
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anybody willing to extrapolate X based on a constant Lloyd? --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:38:11 PM | message detail |
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X based off of Lloyd is doing very well, BTW. Of course, with Mudkip
here it's hard to tell, but he's only slightly below MM's value last
year using a static Lloyd. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/25/2008 6:40:17 PM | message detail |
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X based off of Lloyd is doing very well, BTW. Of course, with Mudkip
here it's hard to tell, but he's only slightly below MM's value last
year using a static Lloyd. What does this put Mudkip at? --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 6:41:06 PM | message detail |
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MMX currently has 72.79% on Lloyd. Zero 73.25% 65557 Lloyd Irving 26.75% 23938 eh, whatever. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2008 6:41:23 PM | message detail |
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I still can't see X > MM, or even X = MM What he's doing now puts him about halfway between MM and Zero, which is exactly where I'd have pegged him to be. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 6:41:44 PM | message detail |
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you vote for one robot you vote for them all ROB 2009 --- Moltar Status: augh Lloyd/Mudkip/Tom/MMX - Bracket: MMX > Mudkip - Vote: Lloyd (18/28) |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:42:14 PM | message detail |
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What does this put Mudkip at? Way too high. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:43:33 PM | message detail |
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I was thinking KP did that earlier in the day, and it had X at around
38% on BL or so. I don't know if I'd trust a consistent Lloyd.
Seriously, line up all of his matches side by side and tell me he's
been consistent. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 6:44:36 PM | message detail |
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I trust a constant Lloyd more than a constant Mudkip. seeing as MMX is
our biggest newcomer, this is pretty intruiging, even if it's way off.
usually I wouldn't take too much from it but this is five years in the
making. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:44:58 PM | message detail |
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Really? I've always thought Lloyd has been mostly consistent. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:46:17 PM | message detail |
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Well, Lloyd was thought to be really bad fodder based off of his 2005
performances, and then last year, he showed the makings of being decent
fodder. This year, who knows? Tom Nook seems way off, too. I don't trust this match at all. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 6:47:39 PM | message detail |
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he didn't look *that* bad in 2005. that was all expectations -- after Mithos, we expected something good. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| ZFS | Posted 9/25/2008 6:47:45 PM | message detail |
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Couldn't even hit 45% here. damn you mudkip --- let's mosey |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:49:01 PM | message detail |
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The only problem is that Wesker made him look WEAKER than Mithos. Of
course, we could chalk that up to a Kefka overperformance and call it
at that. Looking at Wesker last year, that's probably what happened.
Ehh, whatever. I still don't take too much from this. I mean, this is
basically what Luigi did last year. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:49:21 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man X: 38.21 Mudkip: 30.3 Lloyd Irving: 18.57 Tom Nook: 10.32 Updated stats based off of a 'compromise' between 2005 and 2007 Lloyd. ...Just ignore the Kip and everything looks great! --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2008 6:49:54 PM | message detail |
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Here's a rough estimate using Morgoth's formula: X=50% Mudkip=39.5% Lloyd=24.5% Tom=14% I like Morgoth's theory a lot for it's intuitiveness, but it's rather difficult to go from getting the percentages from the XS values to getting the XS values from the percentages. Or, at least it appears that way to me. Incidentally, that puts X at 75.5% against Lloyd, which, if you go back to that 2005 Zero/Lloyd match, gives Zero 45.8% on Mega Man. Which is a little better than the 44% Zero got on Mega Man back in 2004, but at this point we're really reaching across years plus Mega Man/Zero could be wonky plus Mudkip is involved, so I'll stop. --- Mustache...and green... |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:51:53 PM | message detail |
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Division 3, Match 1 Crash Bandicoot For some reason, it’s the guy whose franchise has been long dead but still won’t go away, Crash Bandicoot! They need to start doing those Crash Bandicoot commercials again. I bet it’d give him a big boost. In any event, despite finishing in last place in the previous contest, Crash still did relatively well. I think he had the highest finishing percentage of a 4th place character in the entire contest, though I’m not really sure that means anything. This year, Crash will get more votes than someone for the first time since 2002! He probably gets third place here, but for some reason, last year’s contest sticks with me and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he could snag second place somehow. Not likely though. Nightmare Nomination Rally power! Nightmare returns! Last year, he was given an easy first round match with little competition for second place. That basically seems to be the case this year, though Crash will be tougher to deal with than Vyse and Rayman. Nightmare didn’t do so well in the second round, but he was facing pretty stiff competition. He’s basically in a position to repeat what he did last year: Beat up on some weaker guys in round one and get beat up on in round 2. Raz Man, did this guy come from left field or what? I didn’t know enough people had played Psychonauts to get Raz into the contest! We’ve seen Guybrush and Manny Calavera perform in these contests, and there’s no reason to expect him to do much differently. Anything other than last place is basically out of the question. Raz fans will have to settle for just being happy he’s here at all. On a side note, we should totally get Rad from Final Fantasy Tactics in. Seeing the name Raz reminded me of that. Samus Aran Nintendo’s leading lady in armor is back for some more! Like last year, Samus gets a first round fourpack with absolutely no threats whatsoever. There’s not really much to discuss here except how high she’s going to go, percentage-wise. Let’s see…Nightmare and Crash probably add up to around the level of Axel and Frog. Raz is probably worth as much as Kerrigan. So yeah, Samus ought to do about the same here. Samus Only Hopes Contest Advancement Helped Through Obliterating Animals Crash Bandicoot – 16.67% Nightmare – 20.47% Raz – 11.11% Samus Aran – 51.75% --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:54:59 PM | message detail |
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I mean, this is basically what Luigi did last year. Lloyd > Pre-Brawl Pit, Nook > Tingle, this Mudkip > last year's Mudkip. All by decent amounts. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:56:03 PM | message detail |
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I'm not entirely sure Lloyd beats Pit that easily, even pre-Brawl. I mean, the guy got nearly 19% on Luigi based on a trailer. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 6:57:23 PM | message detail |
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yeah, Lloyd got 20% on Zero and two pieces of fodder. Pit did that with
Mudkip eating percentage and a stronger character in Luigi. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| ZFS | Posted 9/25/2008 6:57:54 PM | message detail |
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Lloyd > Pre-Brawl Pit No way do I see this happening. --- let's mosey |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:57:58 PM | message detail |
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And his design, which is much more important. Really, Wario was in the trailer and it did jack for him. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2008 6:58:33 PM | message detail |
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Round 1 Division 3- Match 1 Crash Bandicoot Crash returns to the bracket to fodder it up once again Nightmare Last year's nomination rally winner, nightmare looked decent, certainly decent enough to advance here as well. Raz lol fodder Samus Again she gets a fodderific fourpack, again she's going to lay a beating on it. Analysis: Another boring match here, there's pretty much 0% chance we see something other than Samus > Nightmare. It may be somewhat interesting to see if Soul Calibur 4 affects Nightmare or not, but even then it is kind of a moot point since he probably doesn't advance next round. Booooooooooooring TuRtLe's Prediction: Samus 52%, Nightmare 24%, Crash 14%, Raz 10% TuRtLe's Bracket: Smaus > Nightmare TuRtLe's Vote: Samus |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 6:58:36 PM | message detail |
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But that's not the point. The point is that Lloyd may not be stronger than Pit at all, much less by a decent amount. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2008 6:59:35 PM | message detail |
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trannyscience Posted 9/25/2008 9:57:23 PM message detail #191 yeah, Lloyd got 20% on Zero and two pieces of fodder. Pit did that with Mudkip eating percentage and a stronger character in Luigi. For the last time, Zero > Luigi indirectly Luigi just happened to benfit from both Nintendo SFF and seedvoting in that match. No way does Luigi come that close to Crono in a 4 way. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 6:59:37 PM | message detail |
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Fine, fine. Lloyd=Pre-Brawl Pit, then. Really, the big issue is Mudkip, and how he seems to have boosted a decent amount for absolutely no reason. Unless he got SFFd in his first match last year? --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2008 7:00:18 PM | message detail |
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and I don't see why this Mudkip is any different from last year's. he's
only up on last year by.. 3%, and it'll probably end being lower. and
there's less Nintendo in this match. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/25/2008 7:13:35 PM | message detail |
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It may be somewhat interesting to see if Soul Calibur 4 affects Nightmare or not I did take this into account in making an Oracle prediction on Nightmare. I chose to go with 23.95%. Raz Man, did this guy come from left field or what? I didn’t know enough people had played Psychonauts to get Raz into the contest! We’ve seen Guybrush and Manny Calavera perform in these contests, and there’s no reason to expect him to do much differently. Anything other than last place is basically out of the question. Raz fans will have to settle for just being happy he’s here at all. On a side note, we should totally get Rad from Final Fantasy Tactics in. Seeing the name Raz reminded me of that. I can't even see Raz even getting close to 11.11%. His game Psychonauts is about using paranormal abilities like telekinesis and clairvoyance. Yeah, not exactly the type of game that will come close to appealing to a casual gamer. This makes Psychonauts a pretty obsecure game. Raz should be soundly trashed with under 10%, with under 9% being possible here. --- Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ |
| cyko | Posted 9/25/2008 7:41:32 PM | message detail |
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X is doing fine here. I don't think he's on Mega Man's level like
many thought he would be, but I was personally expecting him to be
right around here. X may beat the Blue Bomber directly (though I'm not
sure I really buy that either), but Mega Man himself perhaps benefits
from people thinking of all forms of him when they vote, like the
Series Contest. this has always been my thoughts on X vs. Megaman. i've also thought that if they would have been introduced as two different characters from the first contest, then X would have always been the stronger of the two. --- WARNING: EXPLICIT CONTENT... is the guru champion of awesomeness. |
