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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 575

Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 11:17:34 PM | message detail
More interesting:

Mario, Yoshi, Luigi, Cloud

Who else Cloud > Yoshi here.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/24/2008 11:19:13 PM | message detail
So I was looking through the last topic, and I saw this:

Nintendo de-boost non-confirmed

nintendo de-boost don't doubt it


That's me quoting HM quoting MM. Why don't we just say "Nintendo decrease"? Or " Nintendo blow" if you want to stick with the less formal way?

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A surveillance camera!?
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/24/2008 11:26:57 PM | message detail
Mario/Luigi/Yoshi/Bowser

Arg, I'm still annoyed about that. X and Yoshi should be swapped, just so we could see this.

Anyone take Yoshi > Mario here?
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Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 11:29:33 PM | message detail
I don't think Yoshi quite squeaks out a win there. Now with a strong outsider to further isolate the Mario voting base, I think Yoshi has it, but raw Mario characters I think Mario still edges him out.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/24/2008 11:30:49 PM | message detail
If Mega Man X were to beat Mega Man in a 1 on 1 contest match, would the Noble Nine be considered broken?
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Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 11:33:51 PM | message detail
I'd say yes unless it turns out Mega Man and X have functionally the same strength against outside opponents, in which case the distinction between X and Mega Man is kinda pointless.

I will say that X isn't doing that well right now. Passably, but remember Luigi had more than this at this point last year against a pack that wasn't that much weaker. Granted, Mudkip stuffed more early this year than R1 last year but yeah. Mega Man > X is looking likely at this point.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 11:42:09 PM | message detail
Indirectly, maybe, but I still think the fanbase sides with X in a direct match. Smiling Mega Man in one corner, badass Mega Man with the coolest letter in the alphabet at the end of his name in another. Seems kinda obvious to me; maybe I'm missing something here...
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creativename | Posted 9/24/2008 11:42:41 PM | message detail
Lopen
Mario, Yoshi, Luigi, Cloud

Who else Cloud > Yoshi here.


How in the world could anyone not take Cloud>Mario there? Yoshi may do well in trivial polls of the day, but those are not like contest polls at all. Mario would rape Yoshi's support in a contest 4-way poll.


tranny
Mario and Yoshi, that one's easy.

Don't think it's that easy. Mario would rape all of them, the question is who does he rape least. I'd lean towards Bowser, because we've already seen head-to-head Bowser hold up better than people expected; but it is very debatable.

Luigi would almost definitely get obliterated worse than the others, so it comes down to Yoshi vs. Bowser. And if Link can StompFF Yoshi to the bowels of hell, imagine what Mario of all people does to him.
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Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 11:52:31 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how you can say that with so much confidence. The reason Mario does so much better in 1v1 contests relatively to how you'd expect from the multiway Mario polls is because the matches are 1v1. Mario's got more appeal to people outside the Mario fanatics than Yoshi does. I really doubt there's anything that says "oh this is a contest match time to get serious let's go Mario" like you're implying.

However, with Yoshi being the favorite among Mario fans and Cloud there to vaporize the outside support, I'm siding with Yoshi.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ZFS | Posted 9/24/2008 11:54:58 PM | message detail
Cloud > Mario is an easy choice there.

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let's mosey
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 11:55:13 PM | message detail
And yeah I definitely think X has a really good chance of even going so far as embarassing Mega Man 1v1 but indirectly Mega Man has the advantage right now it's looking like.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/25/2008 12:01:04 AM | message detail
woo go X

broke 45

and still going

woo go X
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For your health.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2008 12:34:47 AM | message detail
Such an expected result, though it is good to see X living up to expectations. Also a hearty lol at people who still think MM dropped in 2006.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/25/2008 12:36:23 AM | message detail
Also gaining: Tom Nook

woo
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For your health.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/25/2008 1:57:37 AM | message detail
Mega Man slows down after the first few hours, right? How are X's trends going?
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transience | Posted 9/25/2008 1:59:50 AM | message detail
I've been watching it.. it's tough to say since he's got the ultimate early vote character in Mudkip here. and the other two guys are friggin' Lloyd and Tom Nook.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 2:12:06 AM | message detail
Lloyd's gained about 0.5% since an hour in, MMX's gained about 2.5%. Tom Nook has actually gone down 0.25%. Based on %s, you figure MMX should gain about 3x Lloyd from Mudkip, and Lloyd tends to be a morning/day vote guy, so most gains he's probably making now are from Mudkip imploding. So I'd say MMX has gained around 1% from the night vote, which Mega Man does well at.

So right now I'd probably say he lines up with Mega Man I guess.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Link The Hylian | Posted 9/25/2008 2:12:48 AM | message detail
"I definitely think X has a really good chance of even going so far as embarassing Mega Man 1v1"

Or maybe having roughly the exact same contest strength as Mega Man?

Hmm?

I say next year we have a contest where every character gets to get in twice with an X at the end of their name.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/25/2008 2:17:48 AM | message detail
They can have roughly the same strength against common opponents, but that doesn't mean the fanbase will split 50/50 between them.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/25/2008 2:25:24 AM | message detail
I say next year we have a contest where every character gets to get in twice with an X at the end of their name.

Sora + X = Roxas >_>
There's definitely a difference there!
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transience | Posted 9/25/2008 3:05:19 AM | message detail
here's X's freefall.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 3:07:24 AM | message detail
aww yeah Mudkip winning updates on MMX woo morning vote
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 3:12:21 AM | message detail
Gotta love the vote totals for Mudkip. He'll be plodding along when 30 VOTE SPIKE, then go back to normal then 40 VOTE SPIKE.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
transience | Posted 9/25/2008 3:16:35 AM | message detail
MMX just spiked even more, but I don't see you calling him on it.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2008 3:17:47 AM | message detail
I doubt 4chan is rallying for X, and other than that one update he's been pretty consistent.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Lopen | Posted 9/25/2008 3:21:42 AM | message detail
Mudkip's vote trends imply to me blatant vote-stuffing rather than rallying. Always have. L-Block was at least consistent with his crushing.

That being said this is probably mostly just legit morning vote, here. It's a pokemanz and I stand by that a lot of its strength is legit. If there's a face of Ruby/Sapphire, it's Mudkip.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Twilight Swift | Posted 9/25/2008 4:10:27 AM | message detail
I don't think the SFF with Luigi(or Bowser) there will be enough for X to get over Mario, but with Link there he might have a shot. X is looking real good, this is great!

and what the Master Chief's quest... haha Lopen
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greatone10 | Posted 9/25/2008 4:14:50 AM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#073)
Gotta love the vote totals for Mudkip. He'll be plodding along when 30 VOTE SPIKE, then go back to normal then 40 VOTE SPIKE.



Every match has fluke spikes. I noticed a ton of them during the Nukem/Kefka/Marth/Niko match at this time.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
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linkhatesganon | Posted 9/25/2008 5:00:08 AM | message detail
Those Mudkip updates are totally insane, and by that I mean not legit
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 5:02:37 AM | message detail
X and Mudkip are doing very well. I don't know if you can take anything out of this as far as how well joke characters will do here because I think Mudkip is in an entirely different category. Also, I'm surprised at how badly Nook is doing. Maybe Mudkip is taking away his joke votes? Who knows? By the way, I'm one of those guys who'd vote X over Mega Man. I probably would've voted for Lloyd had it been the original Blue Bomber.

Stats from yesterday:

Mario – 50.00%
Princess Zelda – 37.78%
Knuckles the Echidna – 34.05%
Fei Fong Wong – 25.78%

Right now, X is getting 73.59% on Lloyd, 84.36% on Nook, and 58.88% on Mudkip.

Mudkip is getting 66.06% on Lloyd and 79.02% on Nook.

Lloyd is getting 65.93% on Nook.

Fun Facts: Zero got 73.25% on Lloyd in 2005 and 66.01% on him last year. Strange how you can get X = Zero and Zero = Mudkip at the same time.

Nook got 59.86% on Zelos last year.

Luigi got 62.39% on Mudkip last year, with Pit and Tingle in the poll. Either Mudkip is stronger this year or X isn't quite up there with Luigi here. Don't know if you can draw any definite conclusions from this. Either way, Mudkip has had one strong character and two crap ones for competition in the first round both times.

I think X is far enough ahead of Mudkip here not to have to worry about losing to him next round, and Mario didn't seem to do much to Zelda anyway. I think either one of them could beat him.
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linkhatesganon | Posted 9/25/2008 5:13:32 AM | message detail
By the way, Megaman X is doing pretty similar as Luigi did last year right? I guess Pit and Lloyd are around the same strength, maybe just that Pit looked worse last year because of all the SFF and Tingle and Nook are just lol.
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The Roman Empire called. They want all their words back. - Turn
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smitelf | Posted 9/25/2008 5:37:59 AM | message detail
*sees match for the first time*

****, L-Block is going to win again, isn't it?

*tears bracket to shreds*
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/25/2008 6:37:52 AM | message detail
i wouldn't base L-Block winning the whole thing off of mudkip just yet.
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Bowser/Cain/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Geno (12/20)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2008 7:17:19 AM | message detail
Impressive, Mudkip is still above 30%. With MMX looking to decrease during the day vote later (already falling a bit with the morning vote I see), Mudkip is going to be looking good after this match (oh god why)

Lloyd and Tom also going up at the expense of X too. Not surprising but kind of interesting.
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Moltar Status: augh
Lloyd/Mudkip/Tom/MMX - Bracket: MMX > Mudkip - Vote: Lloyd (18/28)
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2008 7:20:46 AM | message detail
I'm intrigued to see how Mudkip and Zelda affect Mario next round.....
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/25/2008 7:26:57 AM | message detail
I honestly don't think Mudkip will fall that much later on since he was fine with the ASV last year. If he remains above 30% that will be really impressive. He seriously could pose a threat next round with Mario/Zelda/MMX LFFing each other.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 7:29:44 AM | message detail
It should be about the same as Luigi and Ganondorf last year (That is, probably minimal). After all, it's just a different Mario Bro. and a different Zelda character this time around.

The thing that concerns me about Mudkip is that it will probably get a steady stream of votes, regardless of who's in the poll. With three strong characters, Mudkip could capitalize, much like L-Block (or even Pikachu, I suppose) did last year.

Also, what is Bacon's infatuation with rematches? We're probably going to have Samus/Frog for the second year in a row (and third year out of four), Samus/Ganon, Auron/Sephy (Why?!), Cloud/Squall (WHYYYYYYY?!), Snake/Mega Man IV, Mega Man/Zero, Dante/Leon, Squall/Sora, Auron/Sub-Zero, Sonic/Sub-Zero...

Is it that difficult to spread out 128 characters so we avoid rematches?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
linkhatesganon | Posted 9/25/2008 7:34:15 AM | message detail
Add posibly Crono/Vincent and Jill/Ocelot IN THE FIRST ROUND AGAIN >_>
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The Roman Empire called. They want all their words back. - Turn
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 7:35:34 AM | message detail
Well, Crono/Vincent is fine with me since it was close and still debatable this year.

But yeah, no reason to have Jill/Ocelot again this year. If Jill had won last year, I'd understand, but Ocelot SHOULD beat her more easily this year than last year, especially if Liquid is any indication.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
red sox 777 | Posted 9/25/2008 7:58:42 AM | message detail
I'm concerned for MMX next round: he's doing worse than Luigi was last year, and Mario only ended up with 62% on Zelda yesterday- he'd beat Luigi worse, though MMX should of course stand up better against SFF. And as much as I don't want to even consider this, if MMX and Zelda end up close, that gives Mudkip an opening to advance.
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 24/28 --- T-51 (246 way)
Bracket: Megaman X > Mudkip --- Vote: Tom Nook
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/25/2008 8:19:25 AM | message detail
06:00 | 16.68% | 30.48% | 08.05% | 44.79%
07:00 | 16.69% | 34.48% | 09.20% | 39.63%
08:00 | 17.16% | 30.84% | 08.96% | 43.04%

... what the.
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*is Dranze*
Bowser/Cain/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Geno (12/20)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2008 8:23:00 AM | message detail
I don't understand how people are surprised at Mudkip here. Unless you think that X is noticeably stronger than Mega Man or something. He's outperforming Luigi by a good amount against a stronger fourpack compared to last year.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 8:23:40 AM | message detail
That last update was very good for X and very bad for Mudkip.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/25/2008 8:28:03 AM | message detail
i don't think the four-packs are relatively apart. pre-brawl Pit was probably high-end fodder and liked brought Luigi down a bit. Tingle is.. Tingle; but he was high-end as well.

Toom Nook we haven't had a read on in awhile but i wouldn't take him over either character. Lloyd i'd struggle with on both of them.
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*is Dranze*
Bowser/Cain/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Geno (12/20)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/25/2008 8:30:22 AM | message detail
also with that said if X can barely outperform Luigi, his chances against Zelda don't look good if she holds up better than him.
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*is Dranze*
Bowser/Cain/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Geno (12/20)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 8:37:51 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm liking Zelda's chances a bit more here. X isn't even really doing as well as Luigi, and Mudkip is doing better on him. He's just got a high percentage because of how bad the competition is. And Luigi was likely hindered by Pit and/or Tingle last year. I was kinda thinkin' X would only be a high midcarder. Nothin' to be ashamed of, really, but I think he might be on the level with Zelda at best.

We'll see.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/25/2008 8:48:34 AM | message detail
I still think X looks good for the next round (really, I'd consider Mudkip a bigger threat than Zelda, but this is little more than conjecture at this point). Of course, I wish I could figure out how much of this Mudkip support is comprised of joke votes, cheating, and legitimate Poke love.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/25/2008 8:52:13 AM | message detail
Unless X gets SFF'd, I'm not too worried about him losing to Mudkip. Luigi and Ganondorf both were still able to beat him. Of course, we'll see what Mudkip does facing three big competitors. Last year, Luigi and Ganon were helped by the fact that the 4th guy was Vergil. We'll see how loyal the Mudkippers are.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
jonthomson | Posted 9/25/2008 8:52:51 AM | message detail
yay, perfect division
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/25/2008 8:55:08 AM | message detail
This seems like a strong Kippy. I'd love to say that this is a good sign of things to come for my Joke-ified bracket, but it could be that X is just a cut or two below standard Mega Man. I'll keep from making a judgment until I see him against some real competition.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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