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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 575

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 9:28:51 PM | message detail
There is a Pokemon. Mudkip.

Fun fact: I have a pet rat named Zelda.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

~*aprosenf's poll script*~
http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it.

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:29:19 PM | message detail
Fun fact: I have a pet rat named Zelda.

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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 9:29:41 PM | message detail
By the way, that fun fact is Ulti's, although I do call my wang Ganon.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/24/2008 9:29:48 PM | message detail
Mud Mud Kip


So X is still looking pretty good here when you look at how badly he's beating Lloyd and Nook's face in. Unless you think KIPZ SFFs them or something.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
swirIdude | Posted 9/24/2008 9:29:51 PM | message detail
Wouldn't it have made more sense to save the ASCII For the joke character's debut?
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
Looking for a new sig.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:30:55 PM | message detail
Ok, THAT update was nice for X. Pulling 100 vote updates on Kip during his best time makes me feel.....ok about next round.
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i am false
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 9:31:09 PM | message detail
Maybe, but I think one ASCII topic is good for a contest.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 9/24/2008 9:32:59 PM | message detail
Pulling 100 vote updates on Kip during his best time makes me feel.....ok about next round.

Ha.

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let's mosey
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:33:21 PM | message detail
. _
|_|
|_|_
|_|_| FEAR
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2008 9:33:35 PM | message detail
If 4chan had an unlimited supply of votes, Mudkip would've won the contest last time around. Mudkip's surge doesn't bode particularly well for any other joke characters because it's 4chan based, though it can be argued that how well he's holding up against X does.

But then again, we've never seen X before! Time to estimate using Lloyd and Nook then lol Nintendo
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/24/2008 9:33:57 PM | message detail
Whenever someone does a post with just "Ha." or "Heh..." or something similar it reminds me of Godot.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:34:35 PM | message detail
I love how Nook is getting his face beat in.

How low will he go?
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 9:35:02 PM | message detail
If these polls were indicative of personal wealth, X and Mudkip would be like gazillionaires (Tom Nook is loaded).
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Gaddswell | Posted 9/24/2008 9:35:39 PM | message detail
So, how just how big is the difference between Lloyd and Zelos looking?
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:35:46 PM | message detail
Oh snap, X is pissed.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/24/2008 9:35:57 PM | message detail
Aaaand things are officially back to normal.

Nice 45% update from X.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Gaddswell | Posted 9/24/2008 9:36:10 PM | message detail
Looks like 4chan left. <_<
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 9:42:36 PM | message detail
Not enough Lloyd cuts for 4chan to be gone they're still here stuffing around 200 votes an update imhhho.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/24/2008 9:46:31 PM | message detail
A minor Mudkip spike. Suck it, Loloyd and Nook!
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
paraboxx | Posted 9/24/2008 9:56:39 PM | message detail
So does Nook recover any come morning, or just die out even more?
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/24/2008 10:01:40 PM | message detail
uh what the hell did Lloyd just do?
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Today's prediction: Mega Man X 41.70% - Mudkip 24.24% - Lloyd Whining 19.98% - Nook 14.08%
Status: meh
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 10:04:00 PM | message detail
Dammit man you had me expecting a Lloyd cut or something when I refreshed.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Gaddswell | Posted 9/24/2008 10:06:10 PM | message detail
Whoa X with a 50% update!
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2008 10:08:59 PM | message detail
343 to 436

x stufferz
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Moltar Status: augh
Lloyd/Mudkip/Tom/MMX - Bracket: MMX > Mudkip - Vote: Lloyd (18/28)
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/24/2008 10:11:00 PM | message detail
another Lloyd leap
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Today's prediction: Mega Man X 41.70% - Mudkip 24.24% - Lloyd Whining 19.98% - Nook 14.08%
Status: meh
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/24/2008 10:13:26 PM | message detail
Before I go to sleep... hmm

X vs Zero, who ya got?
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 10:13:57 PM | message detail
X, easy.
---
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 10:14:54 PM | message detail
I'd also take X over normal Mega Man and would be pretty surprised if the fanbase didn't swing that way.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Gaddswell | Posted 9/24/2008 10:23:50 PM | message detail
Kip died there. Let's hope for a Lloyd cut soon. >_>

I take X > Zero.
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/24/2008 10:24:26 PM | message detail
X
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MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN!
Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/24/2008 10:27:09 PM | message detail
Mega Man = X, popularity wise. Whoever knows the Blue Bomber will vote for either. I can't imagine someone vote for MM and not X and vise-versa... but the world is filled with dumb people so whatever.

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[Multiple Scorgasms]
Score: 18/28 Today's Pick: Mega Man X > Mudkip
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/24/2008 10:29:14 PM | message detail
I vote for X and not MM. ^_^
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 10:30:56 PM | message detail
I vote for MM and not X. ^_^
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Malakuko | Posted 9/24/2008 10:36:25 PM | message detail
I vote for T Nook and not MM or X ^_^
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http://img.imgcake.com//christ2.gif http://img.imgcake.com//dannynoriegaanimated.gif
MerNOICE!
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 10:37:38 PM | message detail
I actually take Zero > X, but X > Zero indirectly.

Also, yeah, I vote for Mega Man in a lot of matches I wouldn't vote for X in. Like this year I'll probably vote Liquid in round 3, but I'd be voting Mega Man were he here instead.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2008 10:39:00 PM | message detail
I vote for MM and not X. ^_^

Agreed. Let's go Nook!
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/24/2008 10:39:19 PM | message detail
Oh my god mudkip is more impressive than MMX
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 10:42:18 PM | message detail
Mudkip is just collapsing now that the vote stuffing is done. Looks like the theory of Mudkip floor holds for now, though this might just not be a strong enough four pack to bring him down.
---
Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 10:45:36 PM | message detail
same as last year, down to the update. can't wait to see people's responses when the 'kip's got 30%+ in a matchup of Mega Man X, Zelda and Mario.

that could very well be first place.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 10:48:00 PM | message detail
That will be first place, no doubt in my mind. Don't think he's gettin 30%, though... well, maybe in the first few updates, actually <_<
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 10:48:57 PM | message detail
yeah, that's what I mean. it'll be chaos in here.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2008 10:51:16 PM | message detail
Yeah. I didn't think you were suggesting he holds 30%... but didn't he keep 30% for like two hours or something against Luigi and Ganondorf? I don't think the residual vote stuffing/rallying Mudkip gets is enough to keep him afloat for long next round, just the surge.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 10:52:29 PM | message detail
he held 30% til 3am, looks like. ended at 25.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 10:54:33 PM | message detail
man, how bad was Zelos last year if Nook's at 8%?
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/24/2008 10:57:50 PM | message detail
Nook may have benefited a bit because of his opponents: Xbox shooter guy, obscure RPG guy, and obscure RPG guy. Replace Kefka with Captain Falcon and he probably looks worse.
---
Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Xuxon | Posted 9/24/2008 10:58:22 PM | message detail
< luke if that holds. it obviously won't though - mega man isn't too strong in the day and kip still has a good 5% to give away at least.

the battle i'm watching here is lead 3 vs nook (aka whether lloyd is doubling nook). seems to be closing in on it.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow
Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716
voltch | Posted 9/24/2008 11:04:04 PM | message detail
who else is fearing the l-block already.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 11:05:39 PM | message detail
hey guys the joke is old no one will vote for l-block lol
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Big Bob | Posted 9/24/2008 11:12:09 PM | message detail
Interesting question I just thought up.

Mario/Luigi/Yoshi/Bowser in the same poll.

Who moves on?
transience | Posted 9/24/2008 11:12:42 PM | message detail
Mario and Yoshi, that one's easy.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
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