GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 574
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2008 9:41:58 PM | message detail |
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Fun fact: I have a pet rat named Zelda. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| Zidaneman | Posted 9/23/2008 9:42:17 PM | message detail |
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That is a lot of parts --- h. |
| Viviff | Posted 9/23/2008 9:42:30 PM | message detail |
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Fun fact: I'll have a daughter named Zelda. --- Official Board 8 Brawl and Pokemon Champion Official GameFAQs Mario, Bowser, and Wolf Champion (FC:1332-7370-9245) |
| M80TheWolf | Posted 9/23/2008 9:46:42 PM | message detail |
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My Sephiroth > M Chief > Sonic pick is looking amazing now. If you didn't have MC > Sonic in that round then clearly you weren't paying attention last year, and don't deserve to win. The real question is can Sonic even get that far. I went from Auron > Sonic to Auron > Sandbag, back to Auron > Sonic in my bracket, and I desperately wanted to take the 'bag. Of course what he can do still remains to be seen, and I might have very well made the right pick there, but I'd say Sonic has a better shot at losing to him than beating MC. --- hungry like the wolf |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/23/2008 9:47:39 PM | message detail |
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Fun fact: FEI HAS KNUCKLES BELOW 20% HELL YES --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/23/2008 9:47:41 PM | message detail |
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I agree Auron has a really great shot at Sonic in round 2. I was even
entertaining the idea of taking it, but decided it was way too risky. --- "Men that are trapped by chains of 'maybe' can never reach their dreams!" Explicit Content > me in the Guru |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/23/2008 9:48:31 PM | message detail |
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He lost handily to a joke character last year; he's up against
another this year. And Auron, who rocked this format. He'll have a
fight on his hands just getting to Master Chief. That's ridiculous. Please tell me you're joking. Is this one of those running stats topic jokes that you miss completely when you're gone for a while? --- How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? "You're...the ****!" - Otacon to Snake, MGS4 |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/23/2008 9:49:15 PM | message detail |
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as for me i'd take Crono> Sonic > Mc > Dante right now but seriously considering putting MC over Sonic,or even winning the poll >_> |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2008 9:49:26 PM | message detail |
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That was an L-block match and Snake was also there putting the hurt on Squall. As for the whole Master Chief thing, remember that he was hot off of Halo 3 last contest. While he's still going to be a force this year, I can't see him being nearly as dominant. |
| Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/23/2008 9:49:32 PM | message detail |
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Why all the MC hype? Halo 3 was among the reasons why he impressed last year, and with the hype dying off, he may drop... --- Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/23/2008 9:50:16 PM | message detail |
| We need a "frumS" account to say that Megaman and
Zero are near elites and that Sonic is now a decent mid-carder. He'd
fit right in. With the second part at least --- How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? "You're...the ****!" - Otacon to Snake, MGS4 |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 9/23/2008 9:50:59 PM | message detail |
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>_> *Zero is near elite --- How much wood could a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? "You're...the ****!" - Otacon to Snake, MGS4 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/23/2008 9:51:07 PM | message detail |
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No, Sonic won't even be getting out of round 1. Sandbag > Magus! Seriously though, Auron and Sandbag advancing from round 2 is possible if Sandbag is anything like L-Block. Auron looked substantially better than Sonic last year. --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 20/24 --- T-73 (356 way) Bracket: Mario > Zelda --- Vote: Zelda |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/23/2008 9:51:21 PM | message detail |
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OH SNAP KNUCKLEHEAD COMEBACK TIME --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/23/2008 9:51:25 PM | message detail |
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For the record, Sonic's bracket support to get second place (from the Guru page stats): Sonic - 154 (73%) M Chief - 52 (25%) wat --- "Men that are trapped by chains of 'maybe' can never reach their dreams!" Explicit Content > me in the Guru |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2008 9:51:27 PM | message detail |
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Mario is sure having a tough while getting to 40%. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.* |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/23/2008 9:51:33 PM | message detail |
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well, a Knuckles stall... i doubt this will keep though..probably just an abnormal update. |
| transience | Posted 9/23/2008 9:52:23 PM | message detail |
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okay, I'm gonna raise a possibility here: Sonic Team isn't actually as bad as it looks. since everybody seems happy to group Sonic in with Nintendo, I'll do the same. Knuckles was with Yoshi and then Mega Man. Shadow's got no excuse for round 1, but round 2, where he got killed, he was with Bowser. Sonic's matches are inconclusive at best - there's that crazy round 1 to round 2 performance on Sub-Zero, then the weird Squall/Sora match, and then the L-Block match where he beat Squall. Knuckles and Shadow this year are with Mario and Link - not exactly fair competition. Sonic's match with the Chief? Sephiroth, Chief and (probably) Dante. who sticks out like a sore thumb there? I know we like to bury Sonic in here, but Knuckles was never close to Zelda in the first place. if you think he's hurt by Nintendo - which seems plausible - then he's doing exactly as expected here. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Justin_Crossing | Posted 9/23/2008 9:52:51 PM | message detail |
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I just noticed I also have MC beating out Sonic. I'm proud of that. Sephiroth > MC > Kirby > Sonic Not sure about the last two. But everybody loves Kirby. --- Justin's CB Points: 20 | Points After this Round: 22 Today: Mario > Knuckles | Tomorrow: Megaman X > Mudkip |
| Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 9:53:35 PM | message detail |
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Knuckles clearly vote stuffing out of FEIFEAR. Just give it up, you've no chance of escaping his wrath. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/23/2008 9:54:07 PM | message detail |
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That's ridiculous. Please tell me you're joking. Is this one of those running stats topic jokes that you miss completely when you're gone for a while? Where's the joke? I'm not saying he's doomed to leave in Round 2, but if Sandbag makes it alongside him, how is Sonic not a clear underdog against Auron? Sandbag, however legit he ends up being, is made entirely from Joke and Nintendo. These last two years have shown us that Sonic Team is now a part of that entirely Nintendo group. Sonic is sharing the poll with another Nintendo character and a guy who is not only beastly in this format, but is chomping at Sonic's heels in terms of intrinsic strength, anyway. How does Sonic win this? --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/23/2008 9:54:42 PM | message detail |
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with the 360 getting love i doubt MC drops. --- *is Dranze* Bowser/Cain/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Geno (12/20) |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/23/2008 9:56:01 PM | message detail |
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14%! FONGFAQS CONFIRMED --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2008 9:56:10 PM | message detail |
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We need a "frumS" account to say that Megaman and Zero are near
elites and that Sonic is now a decent mid-carder. He'd fit right in.
With the second part at least I'm on it And tranny, I agree wholeheartedly aside from the fact that Sonic himself was looking like crap and he didn't even see a Nintendo character last year. Tails was against Zelda, explaining both her underperformance and him losing to The Boss, Knuckles was just beaten to a pulp by Yoshi and Shadow was hurting Bowser, explaning that mess of a division and Pyramid Head looking so good. But I still can't get over Sonic himself looking so bad. |
| transience | Posted 9/23/2008 9:56:18 PM | message detail |
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Knuckles with two nice updates there (relative to the other ones)... power hour's coming to an end. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 9/23/2008 9:56:33 PM | message detail |
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but Sonic characters suck overnight so who knows --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| M80TheWolf | Posted 9/23/2008 9:56:35 PM | message detail |
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Knuckles and Shadow this year are with Mario and Link - not exactly fair competition. Sonic's match with the Chief? Sephiroth, Chief and (probably) Dante. who sticks out like a sore thumb there? I might agree with you there, but I got the Kirbster in Dante's place. As much as I don't want to recognize Leon/Dante overlap because it makes no sense to me, I went with the same "sticks out" idea to have Kirby advancing against Dante/MC/Leon. Anyway, I think Sonic team sucking is a combo of both actually sucking in this format, and just bad luck as far as bracket placement goes. --- hungry like the wolf |
| paraboxx | Posted 9/23/2008 9:57:13 PM | message detail |
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I know we like to bury Sonic in here, but Knuckles was never close
to Zelda in the first place. if you think he's hurt by Nintendo - which
seems plausible - then he's doing exactly as expected here. You can say that about Knuckles (though if he stays below 20%, it'll still be disappointing), but he's facing both Zelda and Mario. You can't spin Shadow losing to Zidane. |
| transience | Posted 9/23/2008 9:58:04 PM | message detail |
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sure you can, if you think Shadow was hurt by Link. I don't really have
a conclusion to draw there, but I've seen it thrown around a lot in
here, so.. yeah. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/23/2008 9:58:57 PM | message detail |
| Knuckles's performance here is worse than Shadow's. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/23/2008 9:59:23 PM | message detail |
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If Knuckles starts stalling Zelda throughout the night that makes very
little sense. That would imply that he's going to lose the DAY (or win
the match, which is even more improbable). --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| paraboxx | Posted 9/23/2008 9:59:45 PM | message detail |
| Link alone is enough to drop Shadow under Zidane? Under 15%, even? (or somewhere around there) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2008 9:59:45 PM | message detail |
| Once again, Zidane gets 19% on Liquid/Alucard/Ness, then suddenly pulls 18% against Link/Shadow and fodder? The ONLY way that makes sense is Link was beating the crap out of Shadow. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 10:00:06 PM | message detail |
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Knuckles stalled Zelda there, but you know what? Fei also stalled Knux. FongFAQs indeed. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Big Bob | Posted 9/23/2008 10:00:17 PM | message detail |
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Remember when Zelda and Tails both mysteriously underperformed in their first match last year? Yeah...same thing's happening now. Except Zelda gets to move on. |
| transience | Posted 9/23/2008 10:00:25 PM | message detail |
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I might agree with you there, but I got the Kirbster in Dante's
place. As much as I don't want to recognize Leon/Dante overlap because
it makes no sense to me, I went with the same "sticks out" idea to have
Kirby advancing against Dante/MC/Leon. Anyway, I think Sonic team
sucking is a combo of both actually sucking in this format, and just
bad luck as far as bracket placement goes. this drove me nuts for weeks. Leon advances over Riku, Kirby moves on, Chief beats Sonic. Riku moves on, Dante advances, Sonic looks safe. Riku moves on, Kirby advances due to seeming unique, MC looks good again. argh. but I think we should wait to see the Chief before digging Sonic a grave. or hell, we should wait to see Sonic, since he's the one that's actually playable in Brawl. I do agree that Auron > Sonic > Sandbag is likely. Chief ain't Auron though, and he'll need that dedicated fanbase to take down Sonic if he's with Dante and Sephiroth. woo badass central --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/23/2008 10:02:08 PM | message detail |
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Man, Fei is living it up, benefiting bigtime due to the nature of his opponents. FongFAQs for life. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/23/2008 10:02:13 PM | message detail |
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Link SFFing shadow was obvious just look at the updates per time on gamefaqscontests. througout the match the other two mostly remained constant while Link and Shadow gained or lost at each other's expenses.Zidane's performance against Link would also put him on a very high level...he got as much in that match as he got against three Shadow-level characters (at the very best) last year. it is very obvious that if Link wasn't there Zidane would have lost |
| NotTerrafire | Posted 9/23/2008 10:02:13 PM | message detail |
| I wouldn't call anything just yet, those votes are swinging around a bit with no real trend yet. |
| chaosarcher07 | Posted 9/23/2008 10:02:26 PM | message detail |
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that was a great way to follow up two straight stalls --- http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=29 CBVII Current Score: 18/24 |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/23/2008 10:03:18 PM | message detail |
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So uh... if Fei were to end up with this like 14 he's got now... does
that make this guy not foddery? Like... he must be a lot stronger than
Deckard Cain at least since his competition is so much better... or
something. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 10:03:36 PM | message detail |
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. Chief ain't Auron though ... did you just imply that Master Chief is weaker than Auron in this format? Not a damn chance. If you're humoring Auron > Sonic you'd better be feeling MC > Sonic as the likely outcome too unless you think Sandbag is gonna SFF Sonic or something. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 10:05:00 PM | message detail |
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Fei should end up around KOS-MOS level, or higher. That has always been
my belief and these results certainly aren't making me think any
different. Definitely a solid midcarder. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2008 10:05:24 PM | message detail |
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just look at the updates per time on gamefaqscontests. througout the
match the other two mostly remained constant while Link and Shadow
gained or lost at each other's expenses.Zidane's performance against
Link would also put him on a very high level...he got as much in that
match as he got against three Shadow-level characters (at the very
best) last year. That means absolutely nothing. You could go to any match ever and find at least 20 examples of non-SFF situations where that happens. |
| transience | Posted 9/23/2008 10:05:43 PM | message detail |
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Auron is flat-out stronger than the
Chief. we never really got to see Chief's "dedicated fanbase" in action
because he won out on a Nintendo split twice over. that's still
unproven. Halo 3 releasing mid-contest is just as big of a factor
there, and we just don't know. I think he's got a dedicated following, but it's not an automatic Chief vote or anything. he's still quite variable. if Phoenix Wright can fluctuate, so can the Chief. let's see before anointing him the four-way god. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/23/2008 10:05:57 PM | message detail |
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unless you think Sandbag is gonna SFF Sonic or something. What is wrong with thinking things of this nature --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| paraboxx | Posted 9/23/2008 10:06:15 PM | message detail |
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unless you think Sandbag is gonna SFF Sonic or something. pretty sure that is what they're thinking, actually. Me, I don't have Sandbag making it out of Round 1. ...but I'm starting to wish I did. |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/23/2008 10:07:00 PM | message detail |
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Auron is flat-out stronger than the Chief. we never really got to
see Chief's "dedicated fanbase" in action because he won out on a
Nintendo split twice over. that's still unproven. Halo 3 releasing
mid-contest is just as big of a factor there, and we just don't know. I think he's got a dedicated following, but it's not an automatic Chief vote or anything. he's still quite variable. if Phoenix Wright can fluctuate, so can the Chief. let's see before anointing him the four-way god. we saw it when he was 2% away from solid snake. --- DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716 |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/23/2008 10:07:05 PM | message detail |
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Let's get that Sandbag out of here after Rd. 2. Sonic is gonna pulverize that joker that lost to Sub-Zero --- Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong. character battle vii ; final fantasy vii do you believe |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/23/2008 10:07:11 PM | message detail |
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he got the same percentage in that Yuna/Liquid group that Auron got in Chris/Pyramid head one. take that as you will. --- *is Dranze* Bowser/Cain/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Geno (12/20) |
