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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 573 (ASCII)

_Hogger_ | Posted 9/23/2008 10:58:10 AM | message detail
Olimar (2003c) VS Vergil (2007c)

Olimar has a strength of 8.84.
Vergil has a strength of 16.71.

Vergil wins with 73.55% of the vote!
A win of 60,909 with 129,325 total votes cast.




Thats if you somehow don't believe me. And thats a Devil May Cry NPC. Nero is the main character of DMC4
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/23/2008 11:00:11 AM | message detail
Hmm. It seems that I never expected Geno to get hurt THAT badly from Bowser being in the same poll...
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
H__RR____H | Posted 9/23/2008 11:03:46 AM | message detail
I'm certain Bowser SFF's Geno more than Squall or Aeris and I agree that people weren't buying the game just because it was Square, but I think it's worth a footnote that both Squall and Aeris were against Geno and are Square icons within ~3.5 years that are on the most popular systems of their generation. I would also argue that the success Square had in the final years on the SNES (FF3/6 in '94, CT in '95, SMRPG in '96) allowed Square being on the PS1 to be so controversial and FF7 to be such a selling point to the PS1. There could have reasonably been a migration for Geno-fans to shift to some of our more modern-day FF-stars, though SFF isn't certain just because of that.

Still, I think that's worth a footnote in Geno/Aeris/Squall, whether something big happened there or not.
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Lobby Hero
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Link The Hylian | Posted 9/23/2008 11:19:10 AM | message detail
"This isn't exactly stiff competition for Bowser, but he's (unfortunately for himself) doing just as good as most expected. Makes my Luigi > Liquid pick in Round 2 look good, but honestly Liquid > Luigi "feels" like the correct pick. I dunno, but since he'll have to split votes with Luigi next round I definitely don't see him making it out of Round 2. The site demographic shift away from Nintendo doesn't help him either."

What makes everyone so sure it will split for Luigi and not Bowser?

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/23/2008 11:23:10 AM | message detail
What makes everyone so sure it will split for Luigi and not Bowser?

Very few are sure, but Luigi was able to use the Ninty split to nearly overcome Ganondorf in Round 2 last year, and beat Bacondorf outright in Round 3. Ganondorf is considered to be stronger than the disappointing Bowser of the last few years, and people are generally just losing faith in the chances of the Koopa King.
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
TRE Public Account | Posted 9/23/2008 11:32:44 AM | message detail
Bowser has never really acted as strong as he should be in a 4 way contest. It seems like Luigi may be outright stronger than Bowser. Also Luigi did beat Ganondorf last year. It's not set in stone, but Luigi does look like the favorite for the split right now.
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voltch | Posted 9/23/2008 11:35:14 AM | message detail
anyone else think Ganondorf/Bowser in general have disappointed over the last few years?

Bowser's been sucking at this format and Dorf has gone from being a potential noble nine breaker to being outclassed by Vincent and Squall could also take him,i wonder if Dante's level could take him out one on one.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
transience | Posted 9/23/2008 11:38:23 AM | message detail
and it looks like the day vote comes, with Bowser getting 50% updates.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/23/2008 11:52:23 AM | message detail
It's worth noting last year that SMRPG wasn't released on the VC and he shared a match with other Square icons like Aeris and Squall.

...And Geno's doing about the same as he did with Aeris and Squall with worse competition. I think we can get rid of this whole Squall/Aeris LFF'd him stuff. Bowser's SFFing him pretty good. Squall and Aeris didn't.

And Bowser's starting to take off, but if Geno can only cause him to get 44-45% in this match when Luigi nearly got 40% without any LFF and against good (though Sho brings down the level of overall competition a bit) opponents, Bowser's going to have a hard time not getting split pretty good with Luigi.

Phoenix isn't bleeding QUITE as bad as he was this morning, though the ASV might change that. Geno and Deckard are STILL stalemated. Looks like it's just going to stay that way.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/23/2008 11:53:43 AM | message detail
To think when I left for class I was worried about a Geno upset.

Cornered is now playing in my head.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
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transience | Posted 9/23/2008 11:53:46 AM | message detail
nah, Geno's clearly doing better with the afterschool vote. I expect to see some cuts on Phoenix, though probably not too many.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/23/2008 11:55:23 AM | message detail
Meh, Geno's not letting Deckard gain on him, but he's barely, barely, barely pulling away.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/23/2008 11:57:40 AM | message detail
compare it to the stallfest we just watched and I'd say 80 votes in 30 minutes is pretty good.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/23/2008 11:59:38 AM | message detail
and there's another 34 votes.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 12:00:52 PM | message detail
Dammit, old man. Get that ASV. Clearly this is just a Lloyd Irving styled fake from Geno.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/23/2008 12:01:15 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/cb7/cb7-07.jpg

I'd say Zelda's got the pic advantage here. Not diggin' that Knux pic. Fei looks all right, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/23/2008 12:02:03 PM | message detail
If Zelda fails, we certainly won't be able to blame the pic. Good stuff.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/23/2008 12:03:04 PM | message detail
She kinda sticks out with the royal purple background and everything, too. Knuckles is just kinda... bigfaced?
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 12:03:16 PM | message detail
Why do people keep thinking characters on backgrounds of their color is a good idea. Haven't they heard of contrast?
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:03:57 PM | message detail

Lopen (#118)
Why do people keep thinking characters on backgrounds of their color is a good idea. Haven't they heard of contrast?



Solid Snake to have a bright pink background believe.
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i am false
transience | Posted 9/23/2008 12:04:14 PM | message detail
Deckard Cain power hour time

Geno getting the afterschool vote seems pretty natural to me. I know SF2's not very good in the day, but man, Mario RPG rolled all over it. and it did pretty good against Trigger, which went even with LTTP.

I just think that the early vote dislikes FF7 and, to a lesser extent, Squall, so Geno started out higher than usual.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/23/2008 12:05:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like Geno's starting to take off, after all.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2008 12:10:33 PM | message detail
Luigi has done nothing but impress since 2005, Bowser completely sucked the last 2 years. To me, the whole Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi thing has been completely reversed in the last 2 years.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:11:17 PM | message detail
Yesss, so glad Zelda didn't get stuck with that Wind Waker picture Zen tried to sabotage her with. My last second bracket change was to switch her out in place of Knux, and between Shadow's awful showing and this Brawl pic, I'm liking my chances!

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Lopen | Posted 9/23/2008 12:12:21 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: War made some of the crappy contrastless pics.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
M80TheWolf | Posted 9/23/2008 12:13:57 PM | message detail
I'm actually pretty surprised Geno is doing well with the ASV. SMRPG was released 12 years ago... in order to still be in high school and have played the game, you would have been 6 years old or younger when it came out. Just seems pretty strange is the shift we see at this time really is from the kiddies getting out of school.

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hungry like the wolf
wavedash101 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:14:02 PM | message detail
So does anyone think that nintendo suffered backlash over their current market strategy or that without constant Brawl hype thing went back to normal?

Cause I get a feeling of Nintendo apathy that didnt exist last or the one before that.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:14:20 PM | message detail

Lopen (#123)
BOLD PREDICTION: War made some of the crappy contrastless pics.



Nah, I didn't make any pics. If I had, they'd be funny and/or stupid, like Snake with a bright pink background.
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i am false
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:15:09 PM | message detail

wavedash101 (#125)
So does anyone think that nintendo suffered backlash over their current market strategy or that without constant Brawl hype thing went back to normal?

Cause I get a feeling of Nintendo apathy that didnt exist last or the one before that.



That's just the board being angry.
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i am false
wavedash101 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:18:02 PM | message detail
Well its just that during the last couple contests, the place screamed NintenFAQs and it doesnt anymore.

I'm not saying that Nintendo has fallen off, I'm just bored and wondered what people thought about it
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
transience | Posted 9/23/2008 12:19:22 PM | message detail
it's changed in that there's no new Nintendo stuff to grasp onto. but people are still huge fans of Nintendo's old stuff.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:21:25 PM | message detail
wavedash101 (#130)
Well its just that during the last couple contests, the place screamed NintenFAQs and it doesnt anymore.

I'm not saying that Nintendo has fallen off, I'm just bored and wondered what people thought about it


Considering the biggest disappointments from Nintendo were Wario and Lucario, characters that barely anyone cares about, I wouldn't be so sure.
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:28:00 PM | message detail
You are right about the nothing new part. Pikmin 3 is a long ways off and that all I know thats under way. Well hopefully that Nintendo event on the 2nd is as good as the one last year.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash!
transience | Posted 9/23/2008 12:29:57 PM | message detail
heh, Bowser with his best update of the match.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/23/2008 12:33:15 PM | message detail
Yesss, so glad Zelda didn't get stuck with that Wind Waker picture Zen tried to sabotage her with. My last second bracket change was to switch her out in place of Knux, and between Shadow's awful showing and this Brawl pic, I'm liking my chances!

As a Knux supporter I would've been a lot more worried if it was TP Zelda. But we will see tomorrow
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/23/2008 12:34:02 PM | message detail

Zylo the wolf (#133)
Yesss, so glad Zelda didn't get stuck with that Wind Waker picture Zen tried to sabotage her with. My last second bracket change was to switch her out in place of Knux, and between Shadow's awful showing and this Brawl pic, I'm liking my chances!

As a Knux supporter I would've been a lot more worried if it was TP Zelda. But we will see tomorrow



Uh....isn't the Brawl Zelda from Twilight Princess? I know Brawl Link is.
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i am false
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/23/2008 12:35:57 PM | message detail
Actually you are right. For some odd reason I thought that Zelda looked awesome in the TP art, while she's not that cool in this pic.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/23/2008 12:42:59 PM | message detail
Oh crap the picture I was thinking about was actually also Brawl art :P

http://www.infendo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/smashbrosbrawlzelda.png
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/23/2008 12:45:43 PM | message detail
mmm Zelda
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/23/2008 12:47:05 PM | message detail
Geno has been performing pretty well today. Cain originally cut Geno's 850-some vote lead in half, then Geno holds Cain off for like 6 hours and refuses to let him gain any more ground. After that, Geno starts to being slaughtering Cain again and building up his lead. Up until Geno begins to strike back at Cain, Cain managed to stay around 15% throughout all this. Then comes the day vote and Cain is now collapsing hard while Bowser just continues to shoot up in percentage. Geno is also rising in percentage, but at a much slower rate than Bowser is. Phoenix has also been dropping throughout the morning and day.

So I once again have a solid Oracle prediction.
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Luster Soldier - Popular at school. ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/23/2008 12:48:09 PM | message detail
http://i204.photobucket.com/albums/bb306/shinlord/UpStart/Knuckles.jpg


mmmm Knuckles
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me
ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/23/2008 12:50:49 PM | message detail
awwww yeah my knuckles pic
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/23/2008 12:54:38 PM | message detail
Congrats, Zen!

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/23/2008 1:23:16 PM | message detail
Time | Bowser | Deckard | Geno . . | Phoenix
01:00 | 39.80% | 13.91% | 19.06% | 27.23%
02:00 | 40.17% | 15.32% | 18.32% | 26.19%
03:00 | 40.39% | 15.99% | 16.32% | 27.30%
04:00 | 41.69% | 15.60% | 14.17% | 28.54%
05:00 | 40.34% | 17.84% | 12.64% | 29.18%
06:00 | 42.89% | 17.02% | 10.95% | 29.14%
07:00 | 46.43% | 14.03% | 13.06% | 26.48%
08:00 | 46.16% | 13.52% | 14.42% | 25.90%
09:00 | 46.15% | 14.93% | 14.35% | 24.57%
10:00 | 46.26% | 14.16% | 15.32% | 24.26%
11:00 | 46.21% | 15.65% | 15.14% | 23.00%
12:00 | 46.82% | 15.24% | 15.33% | 22.60%
13:00 | 45.22% | 15.59% | 16.63% | 22.56%
14:00 | 45.30% | 15.25% | 16.90% | 22.55%
15:00 | 47.15% | 13.69% | 16.79% | 22.37%
16:00 | 48.18% | 13.19% | 16.20% | 22.44%

What an awful night and great everything else for Bowser. It looks like Phoenix and Geno killed him in the early night and Phoenix and Deckard killed him in the late night.
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Mustache...and green...
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/23/2008 1:29:44 PM | message detail
So Bowser is almost guaranteed 45% here...right about where everyone expected him.

Next round should be interesting.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
transients | Posted 9/23/2008 1:35:20 PM | message detail
I still can't get over how Phoenix has legit trends now. that tells me he's legit more than any percentage.
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satai_delenn | Posted 9/23/2008 1:36:12 PM | message detail
Well, I liked the second pic I submitted for Fei better, but I'll take this. :P
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/23/2008 1:40:33 PM | message detail
Is it possible that Phoenix's success last year got a small amount of casual voters to reconsider him? He's holding up surprisingly with this day vote (which is still bad, but not worse than Crono bad).

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
ToadYoshi | Posted 9/23/2008 1:41:52 PM | message detail
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Jinjo for Summer Contest 2008
RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/23/2008 1:52:21 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3249&num=4

Bowser went from 44.20 to 44.36 in 30 minutes. Holy ****.

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A surveillance camera!?
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