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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 572

smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 7:56:04 PM | message detail
Ganon hit 49% on his and this fourpack is weaker (at least should be) and has opponents that Bowser can SFF.

LFF could hurt Bowser's percentage, on the other hand. But of course, he can't really be forgiven that loss given that he's facing Luigi in the next round.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/22/2008 7:56:52 PM | message detail
Geno got 16% against better competition (Squall/Aerith/Akuma is miles above this pack), if Phoenix wants to beat him he's going to have to be higher, and Deckard isn't going to be that awful.
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Mustache...and green...
transients | Posted 9/22/2008 7:58:37 PM | message detail
it isn't really fair to compare the two packs because Bowser is far and away the bigger problem for Geno. 20% of the voting base choosing Geno over Bowser? if that happens, we can stop debating Luigi/Bowser for the next month.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
ZFS | Posted 9/22/2008 7:59:21 PM | message detail
The absolute most I could ever see Bowser getting here is 55% -- and I doubt he's going to get that high. If he gets 50% here I'll consider it an impressive showing, his first for me since he beat Ryu.

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let's mosey
therealmnm | Posted 9/22/2008 8:04:08 PM | message detail
Prediction: Phoenix Wright is going to do surprisingly well against Bowser, and this topic is going to call for Bowser's head.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 8:06:00 PM | message detail

therealmnm (#205)
Prediction: Phoenix Wright is going to do surprisingly well against Bowser, and this topic is going to call for Bowser's head.



I concur. I think people are underestimating Phoenix quite a lot. Geno will be crushed, Bowser will be LFFed in the process, and Deckard is probably nothing - all that percentage left over has to go somewhere.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
transients | Posted 9/22/2008 8:06:02 PM | message detail
here's to hoping we get a repeat of the Magus match.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
ZFS | Posted 9/22/2008 8:09:06 PM | message detail
let's hope not !

come on bowser gotta put on a good show

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let's mosey
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:10:03 PM | message detail
anyone find it strange that the hour MGS usually makes random good updates in are more or the less the previous hours?


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*is Dranze*
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16)
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 8:10:08 PM | message detail
I just hope that whoever wins, it's not close, because I know Cain doesn't have a prayer if it's late in the match and close between he and Phoenix Wright.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 8:10:20 PM | message detail
Now taking bets: How long does Phoenix lead Bowser for? 10 seconds? A minute? 24 hours?

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 8:11:10 PM | message detail

KamikazePotato (#211)
Now taking bets: How long does Phoenix lead Bowser for? 10 seconds? A minute? 24 hours?



24.16 nanohours.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 8:12:20 PM | message detail
Making me do conversion rates costs extra.



I also have a feeling Phoenix will surprise while Bowser disappoints, but I'm also certain that's my bias talking. The match could go either way.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:12:29 PM | message detail

Master Moltar (#200)
Ganon hit 49% on his and this fourpack is weaker (at least should be)


i'd take Geno comfortably over those guys sans Vergil.

i could probably say the same thing for Phoenix Wright.

Cain is the only guy i'd take to be weaker than all of them and that's enough to say Bowser isn't hitting much over 50%.
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*is Dranze*
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16)
therealmnm | Posted 9/22/2008 8:17:10 PM | message detail
I'm actually using reverse psychology and secretly hoping that Bowser crushes everyone in his path, don't forget who you're talking to, take this Phoenix Wright crap somewhere else mwa ha ha
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:18:27 PM | message detail
Actually, I take that back. I don't think this fourpack is weak.

Still, I want Bowser to dominate today.
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Moltar Status: augh
Bowser/Deckard/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Bowser (12/20)
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/22/2008 8:25:36 PM | message detail
This next fourpack is weak. Bowser with 50% easy.

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[Multiple Scorgasms]
Score: 12/20 Today's Pick: Bowser > Phoenix Wright
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 8:39:24 PM | message detail
Match VI: Bowser vs. Deckard Cain vs. Geno vs. Phoenix Wright

Information

Name: Bowser
Game/Series From: Mario series
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 3rd in round 2

Bowser is the second Mario character in this division. Bowser’s performance last year wasn’t impressive. He may have lost to a character that he easily beat in 2005 though that was because he had two other Nintendo characters holding him back. However in the next round without any dead weight he still wasn’t able to defeat Ryu. Will Bowser turn around this year in time to grant him the passage to round 3?

Name: Deckard Cain
Game/Series From: Diablo series
2007 Results: Did not enter

I had to do a double-take when I saw him in this year’s bracket. I don’t expect anyone from Diablo besides Diablo to do much in this contest. Speaking of Diablo where is he? Did he decide not to come after losing to Arthas last year?

Name: Geno
Game/Series From: Super Mario RPG
2007 Results: 4th in round 1

The Virtual Console has released Super Mario RPG for the Wii and it seems like it has become a hit or maybe the old fans are just playing the game again. It doesn’t matter since Geno probably got the worst spot in this bracket with the exception of being in the same match as Mario.

Name: Phoenix Wright
Game/Series From: Phoenix Wright series
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 4th in round 2

This is Phoenix’s third contest and while it may be some people’s third time having him making it to round 2 this will be my first. Phoenix likes to start off strong and weaken his strength until the end of the poll.

Analysis:

Bowser should have no problems here taking first. He’s much too strong for his competition though this match will be a good indicator to see how well he’ll do next round. If the results of last match stay Bowser and Luigi will not only verse themselves, but also with Liquid Snake who will benefit from any LFF present. With Bowser’s performance last year he is the more likely of the two to get the tail end of LFF and that may let Liquid sneak into round 3.

With the competition being so weak Mr. Wright will have no problem making it to round 2. Personally I suspect that he will be weaker this year because his games are getting older and his fad is dying quickly, this won’t prevent him from losing though he won’t look as good as he did last year. The same goes with Miles Edgeworth.

With that out of the way we may be looking at an interesting fight for third. If this was any other match I would give Geno the favourable position to pass, but with Bowser in the poll Deckard may be able to wiggle his way into the position which will only be used for bragging rights. Both Geno and Bowser were both fan favourites in Super Mario RPG though instead of LFF each other I think Bowser will SFF Geno into the ground. Bowser in my opinion had the much better personality in that game plus he has the advantage of being in more than one Mario game.

This division seems to be more laid back than the first one though we do need a break after all of the wackiness that happened there. However the next match should pose some kind of interesting match-up which may include our first Nintendo loss.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix Wright

charmander6000’s Prediction: Bowser – 46.66%, Phoenix Wright – 28.98%, Deckard – 12.42%, Geno – 11.94%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:39:50 PM | message detail
is *as* weak

augh
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Moltar Status: augh
Bowser/Deckard/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Bowser (12/20)
transients | Posted 9/22/2008 8:41:51 PM | message detail
trend watch:

Bowser: oddly, he's got a bad day vote. his strength is generally in the early vote and the night vote. his day vote isn't awful, just bad by Nintendo standards.

Phoenix: Phoenix Wright power hour. nuff said.

Geno: I haven't looked, but I imagine he's got a good day vote. probably gets beat up overnight.

Deckard: ? probably a night guy.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 8:44:36 PM | message detail
Bowser won't be getting over 50% though if he does Bowser > Luigi will be looking really good. Of course Liquid can still place over both of them.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:45:10 PM | message detail
okay i just rethought this match in comparison to luigi:

i'm 100% confident Bowser breaks 50% here.
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*is Dranze*
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16)
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/22/2008 8:46:15 PM | message detail
Bowser is NOT getting 50% on this fourpack. Seriously, he isn't.
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ZFS | Posted 9/22/2008 8:47:16 PM | message detail
mario galaxy boost book it

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let's mosey
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:47:42 PM | message detail
Heh, last year Geno had a strong early vote and then fell the rest of the match.

kefka says hey
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Moltar Status: augh
Bowser/Deckard/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Bowser (12/20)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:48:50 PM | message detail

MegatokyoEd (#223)
Bowser is NOT getting 50% on this fourpack. Seriously, he isn't.


well, what i did was used what Luigi was getting in this match and assumed Cain is a couple of points stronger than Sho.

then you just double Roxas' percentage and think if Phoenix Wright or Geno are anywhere close to them in strength in this format.

PW, sure, but since Geno is getting SFF'd, he'd have to do as good as PW for Bowser to be under 50%.
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*is Dranze*
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:49:45 PM | message detail
also if Bowser doesnt break it, i'm sure it'd be because of PW or Cain underestimation on my hand.
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*is Dranze*
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 8:50:02 PM | message detail
So basically Deckard Cain may have the strongest relative day vote here? That's a scary thought.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 8:51:02 PM | message detail
Bowser will approach 50% and will do better than Luigi since he has weaker competition, but I think the fan favourite Phoenix Wright will stop him from breaking 50%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 8:54:11 PM | message detail
well, what i did was used what Luigi was getting in this match and assumed Cain is a couple of points stronger than Sho.
Reasonable.

then you just double Roxas' percentage and think if Phoenix Wright or Geno are anywhere close to them in strength in this format.
Uh, yes. Phoenix is probably stronger.

PW, sure, but since Geno is getting SFF'd, he'd have to do as good as PW for Bowser to be under 50%.
Geno will be LFFed, most likely - meaning Bowser will lose %age too. Phoenix and Deckard will gain.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 8:55:53 PM | message detail
Let's do this bowsa
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2008 8:56:16 PM | message detail
Go Phoenix!
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/22/2008 8:56:32 PM | message detail
Luigi with 75%, Liquid with 60%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2008 8:59:32 PM | message detail
Round 1

Division 2- Match 2

Bowser


The king of the koopas returns after a very disappointing showing last year, and fortunately got a fourpack that will make him look like the dominant creature he used to be.

Deckard Cain

Come, stay a while and listen.

Geno

Why can't this guy get a break? He gets Squall 2 years in a row, and now a fellow SMRPG star and probably the only character to upstage him in that game. It's not fair.

Phoenix Wright

Can he cheat himself to another ill-gotten victory?

Analysis

I just got off work so I'll make it quick. 1 on 1, I'd take Geno to beat Phoenix easily, at least 55-45. With Bowser there, Geno doesn't have a shot.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Bowser 45%, Phoenix 22%, Geno 18%, Deckard Cain 15%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix
TuRtLe's Vote: Geno
smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 8:59:47 PM | message detail
These last few minutes before the start of a match always feel long.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Bowser 28.57%

4
Deckard Cain 14.29%

2
Geno 14.29%

2
Phoenix Wright 42.86%

6
TOTAL VOTES 14

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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transients | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:20 PM | message detail
haha I love Phoenix
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:21 PM | message detail
oh phoenix
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Moltar Status: augh
Bowser/Deckard/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Bowser (12/20)
therealmnm | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:24 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IObwdOCAfdU&feature=related
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:28 PM | message detail
lol Phoenix board vote
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Biden/Obama...er, I mean Obama/Biden '08!
ZFS | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:40 PM | message detail
Ha. Phoenix board vote is something.

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let's mosey
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:47 PM | message detail
uh wow that was fast go bowser
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Moltar Status: augh
Bowser/Deckard/Geno/Phoenix - Bracket: Bowser > Phoenix - Vote: Bowser (12/20)
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:48 PM | message detail
Bowser 32.34% 87
Deckard Cain 11.9% 32
Geno 21.93% 59
Phoenix Wright 33.83% 91

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:50 PM | message detail
oh myg od phnx rite
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
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transients | Posted 9/22/2008 9:00:59 PM | message detail
hmm, Geno's close. maybe too close.
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zfs: man i'm reading an argument about whether or not midna is fat
zfs: come on mgs4
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 9:01:02 PM | message detail
Argh damn you Diablo fans.

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Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong.
character battle vii ; final fantasy
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:01:17 PM | message detail
XFD Geno's gonna score an upset.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:01:17 PM | message detail
Bowser didn't even give him a chance!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 9:01:23 PM | message detail
Geno is too close for comfort.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:01:24 PM | message detail
Aw, Nick didn't make it to the minute mark.
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Mustache...and green...
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