GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 572
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 1:15:54 PM | message detail |
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Liquid is getting low 30s and high 20s. Luigi seems to be static. Roxas is increasing to the low 20s. it's just not extreme i guess. --- *is Dranze* Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16) |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/22/2008 1:16:01 PM | message detail |
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Ok.....maybe I'm crazy, but I'm starting to worry about taking X out of the division, with how Liquid's doing here. ..Hell, I'm starting to get worried about taking Cloud over Snake in Cloud/Seph/Snake/whoever! Don't forget that Raiden will beat Masterchief and Ocelot > Kratos. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. The 2008 Guru contest winner > Me |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/22/2008 1:16:49 PM | message detail |
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Zylo the wolf (#052) fixed --- i am false |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:25:09 PM | message detail |
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Liquid isn't dropping like a stone, Luigi is just sort of hanging around, and Roxas is barely increasing. Liquid's dropping a good bit. The MGS ASV isn't catastrophic like CT's or FFVI's. It's just bad. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 1:26:19 PM | message detail |
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Ah, gotcha. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:29:54 PM | message detail |
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Ahh, THERE is the KH ASV. Roxas with a 25% update, .05% increase. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/22/2008 1:32:11 PM | message detail |
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Time | Liquid . .| Luigi . . | Roxas . . | Sho 01:00 | 34.01% | 40.00% | 17.21% | 08.78% 02:00 | 34.87% | 39.36% | 17.08% | 08.70% 03:00 | 36.34% | 37.32% | 17.72% | 08.62% 04:00 | 36.69% | 37.34% | 17.09% | 08.88% 05:00 | 37.42% | 35.37% | 19.10% | 08.11% 06:00 | 36.45% | 36.01% | 18.94% | 08.60% 07:00 | 32.03% | 39.37% | 20.15% | 08.45% 08:00 | 32.63% | 41.31% | 18.14% | 07.92% 09:00 | 32.80% | 41.77% | 18.38% | 07.05% 10:00 | 33.06% | 41.37% | 18.34% | 07.23% 11:00 | 32.54% | 42.25% | 17.73% | 07.48% 12:00 | 35.86% | 40.07% | 16.50% | 07.57% 13:00 | 35.52% | 39.79% | 17.90% | 06.79% 14:00 | 35.28% | 39.58% | 17.48% | 07.65% 15:00 | 34.57% | 39.11% | 18.53% | 07.79% 16:00 | 31.67% | 40.38% | 20.02% | 07.92% Yeah, Liquid put on a phenomenal performance at night, beating Luigi for two hours, but now Roxas is at 20% and Luigi's at 40%, beating Liquid by 9% or so. --- Mustache...and green... |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 1:35:38 PM | message detail |
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And now Roxas doesn't increase at all. Maybe his ASV just isn't as good as other KH characters? http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/4955/r22ndmatchnq2.png --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/22/2008 1:38:21 PM | message detail |
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Sho's holding up pretty well with the after-school vote. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:39:18 PM | message detail |
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For the record, Luigi is currently getting 53.74% on Liquid Snake, 68.62% on Roxas, and 83.21% on Sho. Liquid Snake is getting 65.31% on Roxas and 81.01% on Sho. Roxas is getting 69.39% on Sho. Giving Luigi his 2006 value, Liquid is at 31.08% on '06 Samus, right in between Zero and Rikku. Roxas is at 21.09%, a little below Captain Falcon (and safely below Axel, argh), and Sho is at 11.29%, which is weaker than uber-SFF'd Princess Daisy. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:41:18 PM | message detail |
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Sho's holding up pretty well with the after-school vote. I was just noticing that, actually. TWEWY seems like a game that would have day trends, honestly, even though it hasn't sold a huge amount of copies. It's a lot like KH in a lot of ways, I think. I heard some people arguing that Roxas and Sho would LFF each other, though I don't necessarily buy it. If Neku comes out and does something crazy (like, NOT come in last), I might reconsider it. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:43:15 PM | message detail |
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And now Roxas doesn't increase at all. Maybe his ASV just isn't as good as other KH characters? Well, it's probably being hindered a bit by Luigi, who also has a good ASV traditionally. He did go up 1.5% for the hour once it hit though, and Liquid dropped nearly 3%. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 1:48:13 PM | message detail |
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Leon, how do you figure out those percentages? From what I see of the
poll it looks like Luigi would do a lot better than 53% against Liquid,
but I'm apparently mistaken. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/22/2008 1:50:05 PM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=3248&num=2 --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:52:11 PM | message detail |
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That's one way to do it, but it only works for the first two entrants.
The way you do it for the rest is just add the total votes for two
entrants together, and then do the basic division from there. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/22/2008 1:57:55 PM | message detail |
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I don't think that's a particularly good model...KM has a conditional probability model that cn hosted here: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48 but I can't find an explanation of it (maybe I should ask in the Oracle topic)? Playing with the numbers, this seems like a fairly reasonable result: http://tinyurl.com/43tua5 Which would make Luigi/Liquid a 55/45 match. If I knew how the formula worked I could (maybe) solve it directly rather than just plugging numbers in and seeing what almost matches up... --- Mustache...and green... |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 1:59:38 PM | message detail |
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It's the most basic thing to do and gives you a decent idea. Not that
it matters with the format. This probably doesn't correlate to
one-on-one matches precisely. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| M80TheWolf | Posted 9/22/2008 2:01:43 PM | message detail |
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I know the math's right... but it just seems insane that Luigi is
beating Liquid by nearly 7% with two other characters in the poll, yet
if you take them out it's 53/47. It boggles my mind how that works,
just looking at it without really thinking about the numbers. Even with
these results today, I think Luigi smashes Liquid 1v1 still... smashes
being relative to 53/47 anyway. --- hungry like the wolf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 2:04:52 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, considering Luigi's lead in the 4-way poll is almost as large as
the mock 1 on 1 poll I'm gonna have to doubt it's accuracy. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 2:05:09 PM | message detail |
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but it just seems insane that Luigi is beating Liquid by nearly 7%
with two other characters in the poll, yet if you take them out it's
53/47 That's the percentages playing tricks on you. A 7% gap isn't equal at every level. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/22/2008 2:06:37 PM | message detail |
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EC how did your paper go? And it still boggles my mind how popular Luigi is here. --- Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong. character battle vii ; final fantasy |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 2:06:39 PM | message detail |
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but I can't find an explanation of it (maybe I should ask in the
Oracle topic)? Playing with the numbers, this seems like a fairly
reasonable result: http://tinyurl.com/43tua5 Which would make Luigi/Liquid a 55/45 match. If I knew how the formula worked I could (maybe) solve it directly rather than just plugging numbers in and seeing what almost matches up... This seems better, I think. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 2:07:00 PM | message detail |
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And the fact that Luigi gave Zero a nearly 54/46 loss a few years ago. MY POINT IS THAT LUIGI IS THE MAN |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 2:08:05 PM | message detail |
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And it still boggles my mind how popular Luigi is here. It boggles my mind how popular Luigi isn't here. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| M80TheWolf | Posted 9/22/2008 2:09:21 PM | message detail |
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I actually ended up writing like 7 an a half pages and had to figure out 2 and a half worth of pages to chop out. And I didn't wake up for my first class because I slept through my alarm, then my roommate woke me up and was like "Don't you have class at 10:30?" So I look at my phone and it's 10:35... what a dick. I wish he had just left me sleeping at that point. Oh well! --- hungry like the wolf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 2:49:26 PM | message detail |
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Using http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/48, I created some mock X-stats for Division 1. Zack: 23.58 Wario: 19.68 Cecil: 11.25 Jade: 4.42 Used 2007 Wario as the base, +2, as he was probably SFFd a bit last year. Only thing that sticks out is Cecil being so bad, but he could have been SFFd by Zack. Link: 53.38 Zidane: 22.76 Shadow: 20.25 Luke: 8.61 Base was 2004 Link. Ninty seems to be decreasing a bit this year, and while Link shouldn't be that weak when you factor in Shadow LFF I figured it was the only way to get a decent reading out of Zidane. Even then he seems a bit high. Marth: 24.15 Duke Nukem: 22.3 Niko: 19.87 Kefka: 19.07 Base was 2007 Kefka. Not the best thing to use, but I didn't have a lot of options. Duke was just weird last year, Tommy was SFFd by Chief so I can't use him for Niko, and Marth was in a match with DK. Only thing that sticks out here is Marth being so high, not sure I buy that. Altair: 22.35 Lucario: 14.18 Isaac: 13.51 Guybrush: 9.47 Used Guybrush's raw 2007 stat as the base, as his normal stat is worse and make everyone here look even weaker. Would've used Isaac, but he was an a match with all sorts of SFF going around. Lucario and Isaac being so weak can be explained with Ninty LFF, and I think Altair is round where he should be. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2008 2:51:22 PM | message detail |
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Luke being worth 4 more points on BL than Jade is hilarious. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.* |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2008 2:51:27 PM | message detail |
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Well, if Liquid's not losing too much ground on Luigi right now, then
Luid's got a GREAT shot at an upset next round. Whether it's at the
expense of Luigi, Bowser, or both...I dunno, but he's looking great. If this can be attributed to MGS4, watch out Cloud. I don't think it's that though. Another idea though is that maybe this is the Liquid from R1 last year and R2 last year was an anomaly. This goes deeper into the FF/MGS SFF theory than I'd like to go, but Yuna > Liquid and I don't see his fanbase being particularly hardcore. Maybe she was able to smash him through some odd overlap favoritism... ...but I don't like that idea much either; I believe this is R1-2007 Liquid with probably a boost somewhere, but I don't like the FF/MGS theory going that far. Grrr...I wanna see more MGS characters at work. The trends being much more minimal and Liquid sticking closer than expected are messing with me. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 2:52:40 PM | message detail |
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Hoping for the picture soon. Come on, Bacon, some of us have no idea what Deckard Cain looks like! --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2008 2:53:36 PM | message detail |
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I think a partial explanation here is that the ASV and the midday
vote's differences have become much less pronounced. Link's turning in
a percentage gain that could actually be described as "underwhelming"
with the ASV is very odd indeed. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/22/2008 2:53:37 PM | message detail |
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http://www.diabloland.com/GameInfo/Image/deckardcain.gif --- CB7 Score: 8/16 - Damn you Altair. English is my second language. And Sho made me like math. -_HarpuiaX_ |
| WishFulfillment | Posted 9/22/2008 2:53:56 PM | message detail |
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http://www.adultgetaways.net/images/pimp___hoe_party.jpg expect something like that --- wish fulfillment every day |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 2:54:05 PM | message detail |
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http://img161.imageshack.us/img161/350/cainqq5.jpg --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 2:56:45 PM | message detail |
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http://www.adultgetaways.net/images/pimp___hoe_party.jpg expect something like that *burns bracket* --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/22/2008 2:58:44 PM | message detail |
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So...with the way Liquid is performing today...let's say he moves onto round 2...can he beat Bowser due to SFF from Luigi? --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 3:02:37 PM | message detail |
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Let's just say Bowser better bring his A game tonight, because I'm
starting to think Liquid won't even donate that much of his current
percentage in the next round. He'll finish around 33% here, and the
next round will be very
Nintendo centric. I wouldn't be surprised if mustered 30%, and that
could give him the outright win if Luigi and Bowser split relatively
evenly. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 3:43:50 PM | message detail |
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Another idea though is that maybe this is the Liquid from R1 last year The Liquid that was equal to Alucard and not far from Ness last year? Doesn't seem like the same one to me. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:47:51 PM | message detail |
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So, Sho has been around 8% for five hours now. And by around I mean never flaling belo 7.98% or going above 8.02%. Weird. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/22/2008 3:52:14 PM | message detail |
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It's going to be pretty hard for Bowser not to look good tomorrow. He's
got two fodder characters, and one leech from a cult game that Bowser
had a pivotal role. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 3:53:12 PM | message detail |
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Phoenix Wright for the upset due to LFF! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/22/2008 3:53:45 PM | message detail |
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Phoenix > Bowser, and today's match being the fluke match where the crew is right? --- i am false |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/22/2008 3:54:01 PM | message detail |
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Personally, I'd distance Liquid a bit further away from Ness than last
year implies. For there being three PS1-stars and one Nintendo
character then considering Liquid's impressing today and Zidane went to
town afew days ago...I don't think Ness is that close to Liquid. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:54:18 PM | message detail |
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I like your thinkin', Extha. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:55:27 PM | message detail |
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You know, Harrich has a point. First Zidane, now Liquid. Alucard>Pikachu in R2! --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/22/2008 3:55:46 PM | message detail |
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According to KP's X-Stats, this is what the seeding should be: (1) Link (16) Jade Curtiss (8) Niko Bellic (9) Wario (5) Altair (12) Isaac (4) Zidane Tribal (13) Cecil Harvey (6) Duke Nukem (11) Lucario (3) Zack Fair (14) Guybrush Threepwood (7) Shadow the Hedgehog (10) Kefka (2) Marth (15) Luke fon Fabre --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/22/2008 3:56:32 PM | message detail |
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...god damnit KP! --- i am false |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:58:03 PM | message detail |
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What did I do >_> --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 3:59:03 PM | message detail |
| ExTha and War are too different men, unlike HM, who is a joint account shared between 35 Board 8ers. |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 3:59:48 PM | message detail |
| (When HM was a Link fanboy, that was me) |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:59:55 PM | message detail |
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Ah, right. Get a less confusing username for people like me who can't read. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
