GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 572
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2008 6:37:58 AM | message detail |
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We have no past, no future. And even if we did, it wouldn't be truly ours! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Some_Character | Posted 9/22/2008 6:39:06 AM | message detail |
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Wow... Sho should've had a lot more votes... --- Can it be considered weird to quote myself? Me, somewhere in a distant past... with muffins. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:44:39 AM | message detail |
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Don't look now, but Liquid's starting to go UP in percentage! What in the world, MGS? --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:44:51 AM | message detail |
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Geno managed 16% in a way stronger four-pack last year with a
Square-sff fest thing maybe hurting him. I think 15 here is
reasonable... maybe he beats Deckard Cain, I dunno... I have very
little faith in Deckard Cain. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:46:33 AM | message detail |
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Geno managed 16% in a way stronger four-pack last year with a Square-sff fest thing maybe hurting him Either that or he benefited from Squall/Aeris LFF while he was unaffected. This is still the guy Squall tripled back in 2005, and I still don't see why people would think there's SFF there. People didn't buy Mario RPG because Square made it. They bought it 'cause Mario was in it! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 9:47:47 AM | message detail |
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I think 20% is reasonable for Geno. Square fanbase split or not, Squall
is still > Bowser, and Aeris >> Phoenix. We have no idea where
Deckard Cain is, but one can surmise that it's nowhere near Akuma. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/22/2008 9:48:59 AM | message detail |
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Don't look now, but Liquid's starting to go UP in percentage! What in the world, MGS?? Mid-Day Vote. --- "War is where the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other."--Niko Bellic |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/22/2008 9:49:43 AM | message detail |
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Deckard Cain is not even going to register a visible vote bar in this match. Well, maybe if you squint hard enough. --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:50:08 AM | message detail |
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I've got ... Bowser - 50% Phoenix - 20% Deckard - 17% Geno - 13% Something like that. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:51:14 AM | message detail |
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Well, Geno MIGHT be able to manage 20% if Bowser weren't in the same poll. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:51:55 AM | message detail |
| Plus, don't forget that Deckard Cain is in WoW, the most played game in the world. |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:52:08 AM | message detail |
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think 20% is reasonable for Geno. Square fanbase split or not,
Squall is still > Bowser, and Aeris >> Phoenix. We have no
idea where Deckard Cain is, but one can surmise that it's nowhere near
Akuma. Geno with 20 would be cool, but there's some very super direct SFF going on in this match with Bowser.... that's gotta hurt Geno enough to keep him under 20 --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:52:18 AM | message detail |
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Argh, Deckard Cain discussion. I'm out, no thanks. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2008 9:52:33 AM | message detail |
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I figure Bowser's going to SFF Geno harder than Squall/Aeris combined
do, but that combo's also a lot stronger than Bowser alone (heck,
Squall alone should be stronger). I would also take Akuma over PW or
especially Deckard, so...I think Geno has an odd shot at this since he
got 16.14% last year against Squall/Aeris/Akuma. I'm definitely
sticking with PW since he's going to have to lose big if he loses and I
think Bowser will keep Geno out of the running. It just depends on how
loyal Geno's fanbase is because Bowser should run away with big
percentage tomorrow. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:53:13 AM | message detail |
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Plus, don't forget that Deckard Cain is in WoW, the most played game in the world. Ok, I have never seen anyone named Deckard Cain in WoW, and I have to seriously question if anyone but you and a few other crazy people willl recognize him from it. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 9:54:09 AM | message detail |
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I'd be amazed if Bowser ended up near 50% after his assy 2007. It's not
impossible, since Ganondorf nearly managed it last year against
competition that might just be as weak (although Bowser's may be a bit
tougher with Phoenix in there), but the big Koopa doesn't exactly
inspire me with confidence at the moment. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:54:17 AM | message detail |
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Ok, I have never seen anyone named Deckard Cain in WoW, and I have
to seriously question if anyone but you and a few other crazy people
willl recognize him from it. http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b149/Raka358/DeckardCain.jpg Hidden quest guy. |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/22/2008 9:54:40 AM | message detail |
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Deckard Cain in WoW? ...lol whoever said that. --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:56:24 AM | message detail |
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http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b149/Raka358/DeckardCain.jpg Hidden quest guy. I'm sure being a hidden quest guy will get him thousands of votes. Or none. Probably the latter. I'd be amazed if Bowser ended up near 50% after his assy 2007. It's not impossible, since Ganondorf nearly managed it last year against competition that might just be as weak (although Bowser's may be a bit tougher with Phoenix in there), but the big Koopa doesn't exactly inspire me with confidence at the moment. I have trouble seeing Bowser with less than 50 here because I find it so hard to believe his competition will be able to get enough percentage to keep him under 50... --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/22/2008 9:57:38 AM | message detail |
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Hmm, a real Deckard Cain cameo, never heard of that. Oh wait, because a character no one would ever hear of if they didn't play DIablo isn't going to boost from randomly appearing in WoW. --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 9:58:26 AM | message detail |
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I think tomorrow's results are even safer than today's. Phoenix may not
be anything special, but he seems like one of those guys who'd excel
when his competition is weak (as evidenced by both his matches last
year). After all, he did stave off Bomberman, and I'd never consider
taking Geno
over anyone who could do that. The only thing I can see threatening
Phoenix is a good ol' standard drop in strength, although his fanbase
seems safely devoted. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 10:09:38 AM | message detail |
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I thought Deckard Kain was from Call of Duty for some reason... Doesn't the bracket have someone from CoD? --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 10:10:59 AM | message detail |
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Doesn't the bracket have someone from CoD? http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2132/2234132637_eb71e08e64_m.jpg This is the Call of Duty guy. Deckard Cain is the main advisor and guy that hangs around with the main character in the Diablo series. He's an eccentric old man that has many memorable quotes. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2008 10:12:29 AM | message detail |
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PartOfYourWorld Posted 9/22/2008 12:47:47 PM message detail I think 20% is reasonable for Geno. Square fanbase split or not, Squall is still > Bowser, and Aeris >> Phoenix. We have no idea where Deckard Cain is, but one can surmise that it's nowhere near Akuma. SFF made Pyramid Head look decent. SFF made Guybrush look decent. SFF made KOS-MOS look strong. Nonaffected characters always benefit from 2 characters splitting. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/22/2008 10:13:54 AM | message detail |
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I was reading through the last topic and I have to say that I'm not
particularly shocked by how Liquid's holding up against Luigi. Didn't
we learn anything from last year*? Liquid beat out Ness, someone who's
around 24 on BL based on his match with Auron. Luigi getting around
53.5% on him now (before the day vote) is hardly a disaster or
anything, unless you believe in his ranking in the overrated 2006 Stats. I have doubts on Liquid/Roxas SFF. People bring up Snake and Sora, but I think if there was an overperformance on Snake's part it was not too much, and it was probably due to the picture more than anything, since he had such a huge picture advantage in that match. Alucard holds up well enough between 2005/2006 assuming you don't adjust Sora or anything. *Well, not me since I had Liquid finishing first in his first match last year anyway :) --- "War is where the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other."--Niko Bellic |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/22/2008 10:18:17 AM | message detail |
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Liquid/Roxas SFF seems like a joke. Liquid's on-screen role in the
Metal Gear universe ended before that series was even created. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/22/2008 10:18:48 AM | message detail |
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SFF made Pyramid Head look decent. There are no visible SFF in his match last year. If you're implying Bowser/Shadow SFF, then you would be stretching to make a call on SFF and that would actually make PH look worse. I don't know how else you can refer to PH benefiting from SFF. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| voltch | Posted 9/22/2008 10:19:32 AM | message detail |
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should we be worried about Sora then? --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/22/2008 10:39:04 AM | message detail |
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You guys are forgetting one thing concerning Deckard Cain. Tomorrow is a Tuesday. I'm conflicted. On the one hand, Blizzard entrants are full of surprises and love to pull off amazing unexpected upsets, and he wouldn't have to be all that strong to beat Phoenix Wright. On the other hand, Blizzard characters suck. Deckard's likely closer to Kerrigan than Diablo or Arthas. How would Kerrigan fare against Bomberman or Wrighto? --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2008 10:40:36 AM | message detail |
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How would Shadow/Bowser SFF hurt PH? And I think Zidane the dud Tribal
beating Shadow is more than enough proof of overlap there. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 10:42:28 AM | message detail |
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horrible. --- “Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 |
| TRE Public Account | Posted 9/22/2008 10:45:48 AM | message detail |
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How would Kerrigan fare against Bomberman or Wrighto? Sarah Kerrigan (2005c) VS Phoenix Wright (2007c) Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 14.95. Phoenix Wright has a strength of 17.64. Phoenix Wright wins with 57.62% of the vote! A win of 18,181 with 119,224 total votes cast. Sarah Kerrigan (2005c) VS Bomberman (2007c) Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 14.95. Bomberman has a strength of 17.61. Bomberman wins with 57.55% of the vote! A win of 17,510 with 115,923 total votes cast. --- To right the countless wrongs of our day, we shine this light of true redemption, that this place may become as paradise. What a wonderful world such would be |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/22/2008 10:50:33 AM | message detail |
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And to top it off! Sarah Kerrigan (2005c) VS Phoenix Wright (2006c) Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 14.95. Phoenix Wright has a strength of 21.19. Phoenix Wright wins with 64.72% of the vote! A win of 31,481 with 106,905 total votes cast. --- SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590 NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA! |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 10:50:34 AM | message detail |
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Sarah Kerrigan (2005c) VS Geno (2007c) Sarah Kerrigan has a strength of 14.95. Geno has a strength of 15.17. Geno wins with 50.73% of the vote! A win of 1,680 with 115,837 total votes cast. And thats Deckards floor, and Geno is being SFF'd HARD. |
| M80TheWolf | Posted 9/22/2008 10:54:40 AM | message detail |
| Deckard is going to be a weak piece of crap... and
this is coming from someone who thinks he's top 5 biggest badasses in
gaming. He's the ultimate gentlemen (witnessed by his Sean Connery
voice), and he gives you the god damn Horadric Cube. That thing is
magical. --- hungry like the wolf |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 11:08:56 AM | message detail |
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And thats Deckards floor, and Geno is being SFF'd HARD. Floor? More like ceiling. Deckard has no reason to be stronger than Kerrigan. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/22/2008 11:14:54 AM | message detail |
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Yeah...doubting Deckard beats Kerrigan, much less uses her as his
floor. SC > Diablo and I've heard of Kerrigan long before she made
her contest debut in 2k5. Deckard's completely new to me. --- NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2 Remember these games! |
| LordOfDabu | Posted 9/22/2008 11:17:39 AM | message detail |
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You guys are forgetting one thing concerning Deckard Cain. Tomorrow is a Tuesday.. I don't think anyone forgot it. It's not relevant since he is a Diablo character, not a world of warcraft character (despite whatever small cameo he plays in it), and the servers aren't down on that day like they used to be even if he was. He's a joke character and it's an absolute shame that he took the bid D's spot. :/ --- SlayerS_`BoxeR`: that is many tank? SlayerS_`BoxeR`: yes? |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 11:18:56 AM | message detail |
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He's a joke character and it's an absolute shame that he took the bid D's spot. :/ Characters from games board 8 aren't big on are joke characters now? I hate this elitism. |
| LordOfDabu | Posted 9/22/2008 11:20:24 AM | message detail |
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What? Not big on? Diablo II: LoD is one of my favorite games. --- SlayerS_`BoxeR`: that is many tank? SlayerS_`BoxeR`: yes? |
| M80TheWolf | Posted 9/22/2008 11:22:14 AM | message detail |
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I'd personally be more interested in seeing how "Sorcerer" or "Paladin" from DII would do than Deckard. --- hungry like the wolf |
| Crimson Dragoon | Posted 9/22/2008 11:27:24 AM | message detail |
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Whoa. I hadn't noticed Diablo missed the bracket until just now when Dabu mentioned it. --- ~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism. |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 11:27:56 AM | message detail |
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Whoa. I hadn't noticed Diablo missed the bracket until just now when Dabu mentioned it. Which is why Cain gets the Diablo support here, and shouldnt be underestimated. |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/22/2008 11:47:20 AM | message detail |
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Characters from games board 8 aren't big on are joke characters now? I hate this elitism. I'm fairly certain that the Board 8 Rally to get him in was a joke rally. --- "War is where the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other."--Niko Bellic |
| _Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 11:48:26 AM | message detail |
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Well I'll use the Deckard Cain "joke character" thing you are all throwing around to my advance then Joke characters should be feared etc, Bowser > Deckard |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/22/2008 11:50:33 AM | message detail |
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Well I'll use the Deckard Cain "joke character" thing you are all throwing around to my advance then Joke characters should be feared etc, Bowser > Deckard But not that many people get the joke. It's not obvious like L-Block. To most people, he's just some random old man. --- "War is where the young and stupid are tricked by the old and bitter into killing each other."--Niko Bellic |
| consolefreak | Posted 9/22/2008 12:03:04 PM | message detail |
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I was reading through the last topic and I have to say that I'm not
particularly shocked by how Liquid's holding up against Luigi. Didn't
we learn anything from last year*? Did you learn anything from last year? http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2904 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2915 I'd call this result at least a little bit surprising. Great to see Liquid doing so well though. --- CB2k8 : 0/0. Today : Wario > Zack. Tomorrow : Link > Shadow Those who speak do not know, those who know do not speak - Soviet adage |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 12:53:36 PM | message detail |
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Which is why Cain gets the Diablo support here, and shouldnt be underestimated. No.. I'm pretty much 100% sure that it doesn't work like that. Well I'll use the Deckard Cain "joke character" thing you are all throwing around to my advance then Joke characters should be feared etc, Bowser > Deckard He had a nomination rally as a joke... relatively few voters are going to get the joke. This isn't L Block... or even Mudkip. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/22/2008 1:00:35 PM | message detail |
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Ok.....maybe I'm crazy, but I'm starting to worry about taking X out of the division, with how Liquid's doing here. ..Hell, I'm starting to get worried about taking Cloud over Snake in Cloud/Seph/Snake/whoever! --- i am false |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 1:10:50 PM | message detail |
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This ASV is all kinds of weird. Liquid isn't dropping like a stone,
Luigi is just sort of hanging around, and Roxas is barely increasing. --- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
