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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 571

Malakuko | Posted 9/22/2008 3:07:14 AM | message detail
holy crap when did Liquid do that
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Mer NOICE
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:11:54 AM | message detail
Come on day vote, would you hurry up already

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2008 3:15:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, Bowser is ass in this format and has been looking worse and worse every year. Luigi is great in this format (Bowser would never have come close to beating Ganondorf) and seems to increase (or at least kick it up a notch) every year since 2k5. Bowser>Luigi can happen, but Luigi has the definite advantage there.

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Bracket:
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10
Malakuko | Posted 9/22/2008 3:17:55 AM | message detail
I'm thinking Liquid > Bowser
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Mer NOICE
Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 9/22/2008 3:39:03 AM | message detail
If this finish as it is,it will be the first match that it is completely correct..Yeah I am that good!
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Xcarvenger | Posted 9/22/2008 3:42:26 AM | message detail
Party is ovah, Liquid!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 4:20:38 AM | message detail
yeah after seeing Shadow i'm starting to wish I had Liquid > Bowser.
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Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Luigi (8/16)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 4:30:55 AM | message detail
Stats from yesterday:

Altair – 50.00%
Lucario – 34.00%
Isaac – 32.67%
Guybrush Threepwood – 24.22%

And today's match means good news for Snake for contest champ and for Ocelot to beat out Kratos and Tifa! Watch out!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/22/2008 4:32:41 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=935689&topic=45559743

lawlz
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Lady Ashe | Posted 9/22/2008 4:32:57 AM | message detail
Yeah, Ocelot beating Kratos and Nana should be a good one to watch.

*hangs self*
smitelf | Posted 9/22/2008 5:12:34 AM | message detail
Sure it was 5 years ago but

No "but" required. 2k3 stats should be banned from discussion.

Luigi sure dropped overnight. Oh well, day vote ahoy!
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 5:25:18 AM | message detail
Liquid is going to be in a world of hurting when the ASV starts. Luigi may even break 40% again before the vote comes.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/22/2008 5:39:19 AM | message detail
Come on Roxas, time to start stepping it up, you useless Nobody.
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/22/2008 6:07:13 AM | message detail
Wow, Liquid stalled Luigi for four hours? Damn.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 6:16:17 AM | message detail
For all of the Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi proponents, remember that those two matches were from 2003 and 2004. Things have changed since then. It's not ENTIRELY impossible for one of those things to shift. Besides, Luigi's beaten Bowser in multiway polls in the past, and Bowser looked like crap in this format last year while Luigi didn't.

Either way, I've gone ahead and thrown away at least two points for the next round because I have Luigi > Bowser. I have a hard time believing Liquid doesn't advance now, and he might even get first place depending on how bad the split is. Of course, Liquid has this tendency to put on a performance that makes absolutely no sense right after he gives a great performance (See: Villains Contest, last year), so I don't guess I'd put Liquid in the third round QUITE yet. Still, he's lookin' good. Kinda hoping Roxas would make a match out of it, but MGS4 is bigger than I thought.

And yes, I do attribute a large portion of this to MGS4, not just random overperformance. For being on the site's least owned system, MGS4 held its own in that Pre-GOTY poll not long ago. It's legit, I think.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 6:20:44 AM | message detail
Currently, Luigi is getting 53.18% on Liquid, 68.61% on Roxas, and 82.40% on Sho.

Liquid is getting 65.81% on Roxas and 80.48% on Sho (Sho = Tenpenny, aw yeah).

Roxas is getting 68.17% on Sho.

Yeah, anyone expecting Sho to get over 10% was kidding themselves. Seriously, Sho is the equivalent of Ultros in TWEWY. He's the guy who's more of the comic relief villain (though he IS a legit threat, unlike Ultros), but he's not the major villain. Neku is going to do much better than he is. At least I hope so.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2008 6:30:00 AM | message detail
I trust MGS4 helped Liquid in some fashion but I don't think like this yet. I want the match's ASV to hit before I really predict Liquid...though no matter what, he's going to look pretty solid.
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Ayvuir | Posted 9/22/2008 6:32:34 AM | message detail
With the little amount of Pic Power Liquid got today, im surprised he's doing so well

MGS4 mustve had quite a big impact.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2008 6:34:17 AM | message detail
Thing is, if this is MGS4 we have to note that while

*SLIGHT/NOT SO SLIGHT MGS4 SPOILERS*




Liquid's name is prevalent, he's not actually in the game. Big Boss is barely better off either (though depending on the pic he may serve as a Snake proxy which would nullify that). The big "logical" recipients of a boost should be - in order - Snake, Raiden, and Ocelot. Unfortunately, their paths are largely set in stone...
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linkhatesganon | Posted 9/22/2008 6:41:16 AM | message detail
It seems that people still don't know that order matters right? At least based on percentages for Altair and Lucario. Or maybe did outsmart us??? DUN DUN DUN
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linkhatesganon | Posted 9/22/2008 6:44:06 AM | message detail
Oh boy Some_Character could be a worse newbie that MichaelWClark
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NotTerrafire | Posted 9/22/2008 6:45:06 AM | message detail
1 vs. 1, who'd take Guybrush > Sho? Looking at the votals, I certainly would, SFF or no.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2008 6:46:29 AM | message detail
I think I'd take Guybrush over Sho, but Sho is looking at dramatically better competition here.
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voltch | Posted 9/22/2008 6:47:23 AM | message detail
i don't get it,brawlflop and mgs4 putting up a strong showing,konamifaqs?
wait,Altair,zack,liquid,Duke....it's over,the era of the kiddies has been replaced by the era of the badass.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2008 6:50:02 AM | message detail
For all of the Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi proponents, remember that those two matches were from 2003 and 2004. Things have changed since then. It's not ENTIRELY impossible for one of those things to shift. Besides, Luigi's beaten Bowser in multiway polls in the past, and Bowser looked like crap in this format last year while Luigi didn't.

Fair enough about how old the matches are, though I think it's hard to find reason to change in the SFF. I know their strengths have varied since then, but within the fanbase it doesn't feel like it's changed much nor is there much reasoning to change in favor of Luigi > Bowser. Also, getting 28.62% against Mewtwo and Toad with Ryu in the poll isn't far from 28.11% against Mudkip and Ganondorf with Vergil in the poll, especially since Toad's probably hurting Bowser much more than Mudkip's hurting Luigi and we've often called into question the loyalty of Ganon's fanbase. I'll remind you as well that the Mario-polls have had Yoshi clearly in first place both times (2001 and 2006), but that didn't stop Bowser from smashing him in 2003.

The match is gonna be ugly though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2008 6:57:15 AM | message detail
A few things about Luigi/Bowser and their fight for second next round <_<:

Luigi beat Ganondorf, yes... but I'm pretty certain that he would not have done so if he wasn't saddled with Bacondorf. Bowser is weaker, which helps Luigi, but he won't be saddled with any detriment like that.

The SFF doesn't have to shift dramatically for Luigi to have the win there. I'm starting to think the totem pole on the (hardcore) intra-Nintendo fanbase goes Yoshi > Luigi > Bowser, while the (casual) extra-Nintendo fanbase goes Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi. With the site shift since 2k3/2k4, Bowser's positioning could have definitely been compromised.

...but if the site's demographics have changed yet AGAIN to reflect a more extra-Nintendo fanbase, that should only help Bowser... except that fanbase is much more likely to defect to another non-Ninty character. Fortunately, Liquid and Phoenix/Deckard aren't that alluring.

If Shadow is Nintendo, suddenly Bowser's performance in the last contest is looking a WHOLE lot better.

I have Luigi there, but I'm slightly favoring Bowser right now.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 7:28:21 AM | message detail
We'll see how Bowser plays tomorrow, though he does have Geno in there.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 7:41:27 AM | message detail
So I wake up and see things are just about the same as when I went to sleep, weird. Liquid did really great overnight though.

Well, we all know where things are going from here. Luigi and Roxas up, Liquid and Sho down

woo
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Moltar Status: augh
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16)
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 7:47:50 AM | message detail
Luigi is doing pretty well despite most of the US being in school with the exception of the west.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2008 8:07:32 AM | message detail
I'm really kicking myself for not going Liquid > Luigi in round 2 right now, because that's looking damn sexy.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2008 8:11:10 AM | message detail
Bowser > Luigi may give me more points than most if Liquid > Luigi happens.

The scoring system sucks.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 8/16 Today's Match: Luigi > Liquid Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2008 8:14:11 AM | message detail
And Geno beating that hoser Phoenix Wright tomorrow would be the single greatest upset in contest history. Damn you Bowser.
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Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:14:20 AM | message detail
Since this one is done, what does everyone think about tomorrow's match?

How well with Bowser have to do to look good for Round 2? What are you expecting from the others, Deckard especially?

I think 45%+ for Bowser would be a good enough showing, but I'm not sure what I expect from Deckard. I originally had him real low, but I see other people putting him in like the mid-high teens and low 20's, so now I'm re-thinking that. Geno shouldn't do too badly, a bit worse than he did last year probably. Phoenix will be interesting to see. He did well in Round 1, but completely died in Round 2 with real competition. This is like...half-competition.
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Moltar Status: augh
Liquid/Luigi/Roxas/Sho - Bracket: Luigi > Liquid - Vote: Liquid (8/16)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/22/2008 8:19:53 AM | message detail
i dont expect much out of Cain. Diablo probably would barely beat KOS-MOS in this format and he carries his namesake.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 8:21:50 AM | message detail
Bowser: 50
Phoenix: 20
Deckard: 15
Geno: 15

or something

something like that

Bowser's competition is really crappy, he should totally take half the votes.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/22/2008 9:21:49 AM | message detail
Eh, there's bound to be some overlap between SMRPG stars Bowser and Geno, so I wouldnt hand 50% to Bowser on a silver platter.

That said, he might still get there because I don't see Deckard Cain finishing at 15%. Phoenix might be a bit lower than 20% as well.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:22:45 AM | message detail
With all these upsets so far this year, I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see Deckard be surprising.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:30:23 AM | message detail
Unfortunately, their paths are largely set in stone...

Ocelot > Tifa > Kratos

Believe.

Luigi beat Ganondorf, yes... but I'm pretty certain that he would not have done so if he wasn't saddled with Bacondorf.

He still got pretty close to Ganondorf in the second round without the pic disadvantage for the Bacondorf. He might have been able to pull it off anyway. I'd wager if Mudkip hindered anyone, he hindered Luigi more. That's pretty much baseless speculation, but that's the best kind!

Also, strange to see that Roxas is doing about the same here as he did last year with Hayabusa/Riku/Haseo.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:31:04 AM | message detail
Also, someone explain to me why Deckard is going to be anything but crap. I don't see it.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:32:46 AM | message detail
Eh, there's bound to be some overlap between SMRPG stars Bowser and Geno, so I wouldnt hand 50% to Bowser on a silver platter.

That's why Bowser is only getting 50%. Take Geno out of the picture and Bowser will uber-slaughter everyone ;>_>

that's also why Geno's only getting 15%. I'd easily take him to beat Phoenix or Deckard otherwise.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:33:00 AM | message detail
Also, someone explain to me why Deckard is going to be anything but crap. I don't see it.

BlizzardFAQs. Plus, anyone who votes for Diablo would more then likely vote for Deckard since he's the only PC character in the match. He's one of the main characters of the series.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:36:04 AM | message detail
BlizzardFAQs. Plus, anyone who votes for Diablo would more then likely vote for Deckard since he's the only PC character in the match. He's one of the main characters of the series.

That frequently seems logical, but I can't think of a time when that's ever true. Despite being from the same series and having the same fanbase and stuff, Deckard and Diablo are going to look pretty different strength-wise because Diablo is... Diablo and Deckard is an old dude from Diablo.

And you know like half of Diablo's votes are from hispanic satanists anyway.
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For your health.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2008 9:38:17 AM | message detail
Anyone who votes for Mario will more than likely vote for Wario since he's the only Wii character in his R1 match, too.
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_Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:38:19 AM | message detail
That frequently seems logical, but I can't think of a time when that's ever true.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3244
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:38:53 AM | message detail
still not seeing it
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/22/2008 9:40:31 AM | message detail
Anyone who votes for Mario will more than likely vote for Wario since he's the only Wii character in his R1 match, too.

But anyone who votes for Cloud would have voted for Zack!
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Character Battle VII --- Score: 12/16 --- T-730 (2002 way)
Bracket: Luigi > Liquid --- Vote: Liquid
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/22/2008 9:42:05 AM | message detail
that's also why Geno's only getting 15%. I'd easily take him to beat Phoenix or Deckard otherwise.

I wouldn't have even considered Geno placing last year if he were in Phoenix's fourpack.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/22/2008 9:43:07 AM | message detail
I think Phoenix will easily advance, but Geno will take 4th being SFF'd by Bowser, and Deckard having no SFF at all in the match.
Heroic_CactObo | Posted 9/22/2008 9:43:36 AM | message detail
last
H__RR____H | Posted 9/22/2008 9:43:45 AM | message detail
Okay then, why didn't Wario/Zack beat Cecil in Mario/Cloud-like fashion?
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