GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 571
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/20/2008 11:15:47 PM | message detail |
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This may be the first Contest Stats and Discussion Gopic ever. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. --- MY BROTHERS WILL NOT HAVE DIED IN VAIN! Now Playing: Final Fantasy 4 DS, Spore ~*ST*~ |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/20/2008 11:16:18 PM | message detail |
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--- Bracket: http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=10 |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/20/2008 11:17:29 PM | message detail |
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sage --- Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong. character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:40:38 AM | message detail |
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Guybrush --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2008 1:41:11 AM | message detail |
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A gopic cs&d, eh? --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/21/2008 1:41:33 AM | message detail |
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Gentlemen. --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2008 1:42:00 AM | message detail |
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Looks like Lucario's cutting Isaac now. --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg |
| ZFS | Posted 9/21/2008 1:42:52 AM | message detail |
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come on lucario gotta get me full points today --- let's mosey |
| kaptainkirby | Posted 9/21/2008 1:43:17 AM | message detail |
| guybrush ftmfw |
| transience | Posted 9/21/2008 1:43:41 AM | message detail |
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this is the worst close match I've ever seen. it's up there with Thrall/Vergil. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:44:43 AM | message detail |
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So with Lucario not being so great... and Wario not being so great... how horrible will Lucas be since he's a guy who is going to get almost literally 100% of his votes from Brawl? Marth did well, but he has Melee on his side too and stuff... --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| vcharon | Posted 9/21/2008 1:44:49 AM | message detail |
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First exciting battle on the horizon perhaps... but I can see Lucario
pulling away when the kiddies wake up. I have Altair > Lucario, but
I sort of want Isaac to win anyway. Marth already totally screwed my
bracket up anyhow. --- :> |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/21/2008 1:45:54 AM | message detail |
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Dunno why people say Wario was terrible. --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:46:29 AM | message detail |
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I said not so great, not terrible. And he wasn't so great. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/21/2008 1:47:51 AM | message detail |
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He did about as much as I thought he was going to do :/ Knew Zack was going to be pretty buff, didnt think he'd Soulrape the crap out of Cecil like that though. --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:48:24 AM | message detail |
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Cecil's soulraping was sad. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:49:35 AM | message detail |
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I must say, this isn't looking good for Ike. The Smash characters that
have all bombed are Brawl exclusives. Marth, on the other hand, looked
impressive yesterday. However, it's still a bit early to say anything
for sure. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/21/2008 1:50:25 AM | message detail |
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Indeed MK :( --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:51:17 AM | message detail |
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Well, we've at least got some read on Ike from last year... and he was okish.... so he should be okish + 1 or something But I never expect Ike to progress. That's Pikachu > Arthas. --- For your health. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve! |
| transience | Posted 9/21/2008 1:51:53 AM | message detail |
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looks like a comeback, if you can even call it that. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/21/2008 1:58:22 AM | message detail |
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Shoenin_Kakashi (#018) Well, Meta did beat Peach last year, so maybe he's hiding some decent strength from being in two Nintendo SFF fests anyway. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| voltch | Posted 9/21/2008 2:03:10 AM | message detail |
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Altair is dominating....we suck at predicting. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/21/2008 2:32:48 AM | message detail |
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Wrong MK <_< I was refering to the strapping young fellow that made the topic. Not Dark Kirby <_< --- Warning, there is a bear right behind you. Ride Him. |
| greatone10 | Posted 9/21/2008 2:40:01 AM | message detail |
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Oh... Although it did make sense in context. --- Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest. Brawl FC: 3050-7287-5564 Kart FC: 3738-0020-0896 |
| voltch | Posted 9/21/2008 2:41:17 AM | message detail |
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damnit,i have niko/lucario progressing through the next round and it looks like both wo't even be there. --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| kaptainkirby | Posted 9/21/2008 2:42:25 AM | message detail |
| At the current rate Guybrush will be like 30-50 updates off coming 2nd/3rd... |
| EpicBigKevinm84 | Posted 9/21/2008 2:52:18 AM | message detail |
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Omglol Isaac passed Lucario. This is my first post in probably around 100 stat/discussion topics. Lol --- You call yourselves bullies? He's not even bleeding! You're all fired... You make me sick - Kaiba, Yugioh the Abridged Series. Falcon Sneak!! |
| Djungelurban | Posted 9/21/2008 2:55:48 AM | message detail |
| That would be the highlight of the day, Guybrush
reaching round 2. It would be awesome and totally deserving. Don't care
that it would even further hurt my bracket, seeing Altair's performance
today makes me believe that he very well could pull through to the
final 16 even without the help of Kefka, so this 1 point isn't gonna
make my bracket rise or fall. --- B.B. Hood for CB -09 Bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=57 |
| kaptainkirby | Posted 9/21/2008 3:03:46 AM | message detail |
| Guybrush still slowly gaining... those early updates hurt him. =( |
| voltch | Posted 9/21/2008 3:05:15 AM | message detail |
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Altair vs Wario vs Zack vs Zidane --- Del Boy:He who dares, wins! |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/21/2008 3:08:45 AM | message detail |
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Dissapointing Issac isn't putting Lucario away here. --- Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2008 3:10:49 AM | message detail |
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I know. Well, let's hope it stays this close even during the day. --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/21/2008 3:15:50 AM | message detail |
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To use Isaac v Pikachu last year as a guideline, Isaac lost about 0.10%
between now and the end of the poll which is very marginal, Pikachu
gained 1%. That might look ominous for Isaac and predict a 0.5% win for Lucario but lets remember that Lucario is nowhere near the mainstream draw that Pikachu is, can a character like him even cause a stir during the day vote? Regardless I think this one could be very close, I'd be surprised if either won by more than 500 votes. --- Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 9/21/2008 3:35:25 AM | message detail |
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It's our fault for giving into BRAWLFEAR. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| jonthomson | Posted 9/21/2008 4:19:40 AM | message detail |
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wow altair. always thought a mewtwo clone would be somewhat overrated, but this? jesus --- Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179 Obama '08 imo |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/21/2008 4:28:22 AM | message detail |
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Yeah Lucario's gonna take this during the day pretty easily I think. I
don't think he'll be quite what Marth was, but he should have enough in
him to beat friggin' Isaac. That said, Altair is going to own faces during the day. He reeks of X-Box day vote beastliness, and this has me worried, not just for my next pick, but because for Zack too =( --- Arsenal FC 4-0-1 Pts: 12 Pos: Top of the league, where we belong. character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/21/2008 4:31:47 AM | message detail |
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I actually think Altair is going to get his ass handed to him next
round, today is all Lucario's suck and not about Altair's ownage. --- Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 9/21/2008 4:36:17 AM | message detail |
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Altair is just going to stabilize or even going down a bit during the
day imho just like most if not all MGS family. All the day votes are
going to Lucario... and maybe also Isaac tbqh, creating the most
uninteresting close match! Guybrush should go down as well once the sun
is up. --- Xcarvenger: http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9123/chocobo34kg4.jpg For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| Lopen | Posted 9/21/2008 4:47:23 AM | message detail |
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Okay, Guybrush doing this well really suggests that this is more
Lucario being a joke than Altair being beastly. That being said, I
still like Altair to walk out of this division. --- Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude. Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe |
| __Smurf__ | Posted 9/21/2008 4:49:03 AM | message detail |
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Isaac's not building any sort of significant lead here. He's going to
need to take the day vote from a cult pokemon character for him to win
this. Possible, but I doubt it. --- Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin |
| Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/21/2008 4:50:48 AM | message detail |
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Isaac is very consistent throughout the day. Lucario, we don't really know about. He's nowhere near as popular with the kiddies and the pokémon fanbase as Pikachu, but BRAWLFEAR... Then again, didn't help Wario. Altair should boost a little with the day vote. Not much I can say here. Aside from GO ISAAC GO!!! --- The below statement is the most false thing in the world. http://i113.photobucket.com/albums/n237/Danielyoon10/B8sigbet.jpg?t=1221767288 |
| kaptainkirby | Posted 9/21/2008 4:50:51 AM | message detail |
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http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3247&type=2&seconds=5000&max=0 Someone explain why Guybrush is on equal ground now each update but was so low earlier? |
| NClark128 | Posted 9/21/2008 5:20:05 AM | message detail |
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Well, after a long stalemate, Lucario seems to finally be closing the gap. Looks like he'll advance after all... but he's still a major disappointment. --- Oklahoma State Cowboys: 3-0 - last game: defeated Missouri State 57-13 next game: vs. Troy (9/27) |
| Seginustemple | Posted 9/21/2008 5:22:04 AM | message detail |
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I'm glad I didn't really get serious with my bracket this year, as it
seems to be more fun when I'm not caring too much. This whole division
has been great so far. Altair>Isaac>Lucario is like a dream upset
for me. Because I ******* HATE Lucario. --- Brawl FC: 0344-8961-0822 |
| ZFS | Posted 9/21/2008 5:23:46 AM | message detail |
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Ha. These guys are still losin' updates to Guybrush. Kinda says it all right there. --- let's mosey |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/21/2008 5:27:35 AM | message detail |
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Is Guybrush getting the day vote over Nintendo --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2008 5:33:31 AM | message detail |
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And Lucario's back in 2nd --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 9/21/2008 5:34:09 AM | message detail |
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I think people are mistaking Guybrush for a joke character. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| Biolizard28 | Posted 9/21/2008 5:35:16 AM | message detail |
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NClark128 (#043) Well, after a long stalemate, Lucario seems to finally be closing the gap. Looks like he'll advance after all... but he's still a major disappointment. Not Lucario's fault that we overrated him. There was absolutely no indication that he would do THAT well. --- Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism. http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7315/ocelotpartycd1.gif |
| ZFS | Posted 9/21/2008 5:36:16 AM | message detail |
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i mean seriously guybrush is still winning updates --- let's mosey |
