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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 569

Kegger9 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:26:49 AM | message detail
Could the West coast have different voting preferences than the East coast?


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:29:09 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:30:14 AM | message detail
Could the West coast have different voting preferences than the East coast?

It's possible, but we've never seen any proof of it being a large factor.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 4/8 Today's Match: Marth > Niko
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 8:31:04 AM | message detail
I'm really happy Duke had first place for a little while...nice.


At this point, barring a wild weekend-comeback, we've got Marth > Duke this round and will likely have Lucario > Altair tomorrow. With Marth/Lucario, there will likely be a little bit of LFF/SFF since they're Nintendo who are currently drawing from SSBB. If Lucario hurts Marth much at all, that should give Duke a real chance to advance again (if not get first assuming Lucario sucks). I assume if Duke can beat Niko by over 4% today then he can almost certainly beat Altair, too. If Isaac makes it here instead of Altair, there's no way Duke doesn't take advantage of the three-way Nintendo split...

...but all this can still change by what happens for the rest of today's match. So, I'm gonna keep watching this match. If nothing else, it'll be fun watching Kefka continue to drop.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:31:39 AM | message detail
Duke had the lead at one point? Awesome.

Go Duke! Wreck brackets, screw over the analysts yet again!
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Kegger9 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:32:52 AM | message detail
Can someone explain why Lucario is going to do so well, exactly?


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:34:07 AM | message detail
TIED
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 4/8 Today's Match: Marth > Niko
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 8:34:21 AM | message detail
Pokemon had a tendency to kick ass last year, Lucario got into SSBB, and his opponents aren't exactly power-houses.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
Kegger9 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:34:37 AM | message detail
Last update before Kefka sits at the bottom for the rest of the match


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/20/2008 8:34:43 AM | message detail
Pokemon and Brawl.
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*is Dranze*
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Kefka (4/8)
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:34:51 AM | message detail

Kegger9 (#156)
Can someone explain why Lucario is going to do so well, exactly?


Pokeyman
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2008 8:36:00 AM | message detail
a tie!
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Moltar Status: augh
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Marth (4/8)
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/20/2008 8:36:37 AM | message detail
Given how Marth and Wario have done so far I'm beginning to question if this brawl boost exists at all. Lucario could very well bomb tomorrow though he'd have to do so pretty hard for Issac or Altair to catch him.

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
paulg235 | Posted 9/20/2008 8:37:53 AM | message detail
Kefka and Niko are tied.

http://img232.imageshack.us/my.php?image=cbvii1lt0.png
Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2008 8:39:01 AM | message detail
yeahhhh niko pulling into third, niko > kefka one way or another

now it's time to do the impossible and charge into second
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Moltar Status: augh
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Marth (4/8)
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 8:41:47 AM | message detail
Zack was a new character, Marth is winning the most controversial first round match, and we've not seen any Pokemon in action yet. Calling for a Nintendo drop this early is still premature, no matter how many people got burnt by Wario or expected Link to hit super-high percentages.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/20/2008 8:46:03 AM | message detail
Duke cut Niko comeback FTW

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Yesmar | Posted 9/20/2008 8:56:42 AM | message detail
I still don't understand why Duke Nukem appears to be more popular now than he ever has been in these contests. Very odd. I doubt that people are joke voting him due to DNF; I doubt that a lot of new gamers even get the joke, and he's doing even better than Duke Milkem did, at least in my opinion.
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"I'm a coward... A coward who cannot even defy orders he knows he ought not follow ..."--Cecil Harvey, FFIV
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/20/2008 8:57:24 AM | message detail
It's just the appeal, I think. I mean, just look at him.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 9:00:03 AM | message detail
crazy night for Duke. well played.

Niko's time should be coming up soon, supposedly. not that he'll catch Duke, but he should at least bury Kefka.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Tai | Posted 9/20/2008 9:00:25 AM | message detail
Mommy what's that thing above Kefka's name in the pic? : (((((
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~^*-.pUt tHiS iN yOuR sIg iF yOu wAnT tO eNd tHe fLaMeWaRs iN iRaQ.-*^~
SSB Brawl Code: 0903-4850-3529
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 9:06:54 AM | message detail
Does anybody else feel weird that Kefka's getting last? I know he's been ridiculed for failing, but it's not like the other opponents had much credibility and Kefka was the guy we were mainly using as the standard to compare with/to the others. It's odd to see the measuring stick be the shortest.....
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/20/2008 9:08:23 AM | message detail
Duke beat Gordon last year, Niko is from GTAIV, and Marth is from SSB. It doesn't really surprise me at all.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 9:08:35 AM | message detail
not really. Niko's doing all right - same as Vercetti here, essentially - just Duke is surprising bigtime.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
charmander6000 | Posted 9/20/2008 9:09:32 AM | message detail
Well my prediction had Kefka coming in last though before the match you could have made a case for anyone coming in 1st-4th.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 4/8 Today's Match: Marth > Niko
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/20/2008 9:09:57 AM | message detail
Yeah well now you know why I have such a low opinion of him. -_-

It's not like you had a high opinion of me in the first place, and I don't have a great deal of respect for you even now for obvious reasons, but I apologize for doing that. It was the wrong thing to do.

Final stats from yesterday:

Link – 50.00%
Zidane Tribal – 22.56%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 20.30%
Luke fon Fabre – 9.16%

Zidane gets 55.01% on Shadow and 79.30% on Luke. Shadow gets 77.44% on Luke.

Holy Marth and Kefka day votes. Pretty insane. I always forget just how bad Kefka's day vote is until I see it in action. I've seen him bomb every year, and every year, I'm still amazed at how much he bombs. When I saw he was barely leading at the freeze, I knew it was over. He had to have a very strong start.

I was kinda worried about the Duke after what he did last year, but I figured his competition was casual bait enough to prevent that. Guess not. This makes me feel kinda sorta better about Ike, for whatever the reason! I still believe in Ike > Pikachu!

For the record, this will be the fourth match (barring Kefka collapsing so much he falls below 20%, which I won't rule out completely) where all four competitors finished over 20%. The first was Magus/Phoenix/Bomberman/Crash, the second was Leon/Vivi/Pikachu/Tidus, and the third was L-Block/Snake/Sonic/Squall. Liquid holds the record for lowest percentage by a first place character, and Marth is already above that mark, so we should be all right there.

This match has 73,942 votes as of the 12:05 mark. Link/Zidane/Shadow/Luke had 68,780 and Zack/Wario/Cecil/Jade had 67,658. Weekend matches usually wrack up votes more quickly than weekday matches though, for obvious reasons.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 9:09:59 AM | message detail
hopefully we can put this SquareFAQs thing to rest though. two debated matches does not make a huge boost.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/20/2008 9:11:00 AM | message detail
I refuse to give up on SquareFAQs! I'll just call it NewSquareFAQs now!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/20/2008 9:13:17 AM | message detail

To be fair, Gordon went from struggling with Duke to killing him in the next round.


I know this conversation has long passed, but Gordon had the Orange Box come out between rounds, which boosted him.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
Yesmar | Posted 9/20/2008 9:17:32 AM | message detail
Hmm.. Maybe we just simply overrated DK last year, and Marth suffered no SFF against him. That would be put him right above the fodder line. Duke still overperformed though. Even in his first match last year, he got the same proportion against Guybrush that *Ryo Hazkui* *did, and Guybrush might have been underperforming due to finishing in 4th place.



*2002 Ryo who wasn't complete crap, but who was still admittedly only high end fodder.
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"I'm a coward... A coward who cannot even defy orders he knows he ought not follow ..."--Cecil Harvey, FFIV
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/20/2008 9:18:05 AM | message detail
I know these will change drastically because Marth is going up fast and Kefka is going down fast, but as for now:

Marth is getting 51.60% on Duke Nukem, 55.91% on Kefka, and 55.68% on Niko Bellic.

Duke Nukem is getting 54.33% on Kefka and 54.10% on Niko Bellic.

Niko Bellic is getting 50.24% on Kefka.

For the record, 55.91% on Kefka is worth around 25.25% on BL based on 2005 Kefka, which is around 2005 Frog. Dunno how much it means with this format, and the gap is only going to get bigger. Marcus Fenix got 53.49% on Kefka last year, for the curious. Marth seems to be at least stronger than Fenix.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 9:18:34 AM | message detail
the scary part about this is that it all but proves Ike > Marth unless you think Brawl didn't affect Ike at all.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Yesmar | Posted 9/20/2008 9:21:56 AM | message detail
For the record, 55.91% on Kefka is worth around 25.25% on BL based on 2005 Kefka, which is around 2005 Frog.

But that's also assuming that Kefka's on par with his 2005 self, when all the old-school Square CT characters have shown signs of dropping since then. But then again, if SquareFAQS and the Banner Theory hold any weight, Kefka might have gotten a little bit of strength back.
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"I'm a coward... A coward who cannot even defy orders he knows he ought not follow ..."--Cecil Harvey, FFIV
red sox 777 | Posted 9/20/2008 9:22:24 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/20/2008 9:24:12 AM | message detail
the scary part about this is that it all but proves Ike > Marth unless you think Brawl didn't affect Ike at all.

Really, this match is great for Ike all around. Arthas pickers should feel a bit worried.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/20/2008 9:24:19 AM | message detail
the scary part about this is that it all but proves Ike > Marth unless you think Brawl didn't affect Ike at all.

It's not scary if you've got Ike > Pikachu in your bracket!

...But why I refused to take Marth > Lucario I have no idea.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/20/2008 9:25:48 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 9:32:36 AM | message detail
I'm still feeling good about Arthas, suckas!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2008 9:34:05 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not too worried about Arthas yet.

(my bracket's already on life support anyway so woo)
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Moltar Status: augh
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Marth (4/8)
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 9:36:37 AM | message detail
Arthas is a different case. I'm actually skeptical of all three of those guys. people have handed Pikachu first place and I don't see why.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/20/2008 9:36:47 AM | message detail
Duke's pretty much absorbing Niko's day vote. Duke's increasing his lead and Kefka's stalling Niko!

This contest is awesome.
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SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/
"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 9:38:54 AM | message detail
I did it out of Pikafear, straight up. It makes sense to assume he won't be his beastly 2007 self with another Nintendo character in the poll, but I didn't trust Ike or Arthas enough to give them the win.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/20/2008 9:47:26 AM | message detail
how Pikachu nearly matched Alucard's percentage with stronger competition and split with Luigi is enough for me to put him first.
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*is Dranze*
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Kefka (4/8)
swirIdude | Posted 9/20/2008 9:53:20 AM | message detail
Pikachu is rightfully the favorite over Ike. Take out Brawl votes, which they'll share, and ask yourself which is the bigger secondary source of votes: Pokemon or Fire Emblem?
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SSBB FC: 4425-1156-3590
NOMINATE KNUCKLES THE ECHIDNA!
Link The Hylian | Posted 9/20/2008 9:55:20 AM | message detail
If a gimmick character has to win the contest again, I hope its Weighted Companion Cube and not L Block. I have no clue what game thats from but the name is cool enough to pick him.

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"The PS2 had 12,000,000 pre orders. To give you an idea of how many people that is that's over half of the world population." - DifferentialEquation
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 10:02:53 AM | message detail
Not only does Pokemon smoke FE in multiple various ways, but Pikachu can at least compete with Ike on the SSB-front. Pikachu's been in all three SSB-games and is similarly enjoyed (though to a lesser extent) by new players and casuals. Ike's main source is being challenged, his secondary source will be decimated, and Pokemon's fanbase is likely going to be the most hardcore of the three fanbases mentioned.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/20/2008 10:06:32 AM | message detail
Extreme overration of Ike in this topic. How a guy that will most likely struggle to match Marth can suddenly compete with Pikachu is beyond me.
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Good Times,
Great Memories
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2008 10:08:49 AM | message detail
Ike needed Gordon and Duke hurting eachother to even come close. Marth is beating Duke by a good amount without said help.

This match really makes me wonder what the hell happened in the second round last year though...

Also, 2 more hours until the HOF kicks in (HungOver Factor).

Go Niko!
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/20/2008 10:08:56 AM | message detail
If anything, this match makes me feel even more confident about Arthas > Ike. It shows that Brawl BARELY boosted Marth at all cuz Ike was just about even with Duke last year. So I don't see how Arthas should have any problem with Ike, especially with the yellow rat sapping away his votes.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 10:13:53 AM | message detail
I fear the Lich King.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
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