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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 568

greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:03:03 AM | message detail
There's about a 1000 gap between Niko and Duke. We know GTA and other casual series can do well during the day, but how the hell is Duke? Keep in mind that this match will have weekend trends.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 12:03:40 AM | message detail
How great would it be to see Marth/Duke/Niko duking it out for first while Kefk'as playing a reasonable game of catch-up for the last two hours? Here's to hoping.....
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greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:05:12 AM | message detail
I don't see Marth losing this match unless he defies all Nintendo trends and blows during the day. My bracket is really hoping Niko slips by though.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2008 12:06:09 AM | message detail

greatone10 (#401)
een Niko and Duke. We know GTA and other casual series can do well during the day, but how the hell is Duke?



Duke's doing too well right now for me to say he'll still be going up in the morning. I think he and Kefka (once he stops sucking) will end up winning the night while Marth and Niko shine during the day.

Then again, this match has been "lol trends" so far so who knows.
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Moltar Status: augh
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Marth (4/8)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 12:06:11 AM | message detail
Kefka still has, what, four hours until the later weekend morning vote kicks in? He should be under 27% by then, and the overall poll should look beautifully even.
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voltch | Posted 9/20/2008 12:06:36 AM | message detail
this match kind does live up to the hype,all characters have over 20% and the order was pretty unpredictable.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/20/2008 12:07:28 AM | message detail
That's also not to say that Duke will do badly during the day. He'll probably just coast through.
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Moltar Status: augh
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko - Bracket: Marth > Niko - Vote: Marth (4/8)
HaRRicH | Posted 9/20/2008 12:07:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'm with ya; I'm still big on Marth winning, and Niko's got a reasonable-yet-kinda-small way of catching up. For my bracket, I have to root for that...

...but come on Duke.
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NRT winners: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
Remember these games!
greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:08:31 AM | message detail
Really, the only guarantee we have for the day is that Kefka will suck ass. It would be like Tanner scoring > 10% in a poll if Kefka didn't bleed votes during the day.
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voltch | Posted 9/20/2008 12:11:20 AM | message detail
percentages have been shifting a bit,any gaps being reduced yet?
or are we still getting larger ones for the moment.
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Del Boy:He who dares, wins!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/20/2008 12:12:11 AM | message detail
Wow I got Marth > Duke, after what Shadow did yesterday I thought that I had no chance to get this match correct.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/20/2008 12:15:06 AM | message detail
Eh, I think you can stick a fork in Niko. While Kefka and the Duke are managing to keep pace with Marth, Niko's the only one that's still losing updates consistently. And GTA characters aren't that good during the day, at least not in comparison to a Nintendo character. Kefka will probably keep this really close all night until the day vote comes and he just dies. And all of us Marth > Duke guys will say "aww yeah"

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Xcarvenger | Posted 9/20/2008 12:28:22 AM | message detail
Kefka's power hour here we go!
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/20/2008 12:30:51 AM | message detail
go to sleep Carv. >.>

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/20/2008 12:35:59 AM | message detail
But Marth seems to lose updates all the time now.

Then again a Smash Bros guy should have no problem with that once the kiddies wake up right?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:36:46 AM | message detail
Marth shouldn't have too many problems. He built up a decent lead that he should have enough to withstand whatever happens here until the day.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 12:42:36 AM | message detail
What the heck was that?
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Malakuko | Posted 9/20/2008 12:42:54 AM | message detail
4 hours in, the entire match is within 6% of each other

this is crazy
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greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:43:24 AM | message detail
Nice job Niko. For at least one update, he had his head out of his ass.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:43:38 AM | message detail
Considering how much Ike chewed up the ASV last year against Gordon/Guybrush/Duke, Marth should be fine. >_>
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transience | Posted 9/20/2008 12:43:43 AM | message detail
Marth's got first in the bag. Duke's 95% got second, with that 5% being Niko. Duke's looking to have a 1800-ish lead going into the day - something Ike almost pulled off. I doubt Niko can pull that off, but I've seen weirder things.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Malakuko | Posted 9/20/2008 12:45:47 AM | message detail
do you really think Niko could do that
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greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:46:31 AM | message detail
Niko has a shot, though it will require Duke sucking during the day, and GTA being the best it can be during the day. The best hope for him is that being an Xbox exclusive will have some of the Xbox Game Fuel rub off on him.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:47:20 AM | message detail
Nothing is uncertain when dealing with Duke Nukem.
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i am false
Malakuko | Posted 9/20/2008 12:47:31 AM | message detail
well if I want my 2 points either Duke is gonna have to pull ahead of Marth or Niko's gonna have to beat Duke

it's not looking like either will happen at this point :(
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:47:38 AM | message detail
Err....nothing is certain, I mean <_<
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i am false
ZFS | Posted 9/20/2008 12:48:08 AM | message detail
Whoa. Go Niko.

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let's mosey
Malakuko | Posted 9/20/2008 12:48:30 AM | message detail
well I'm going to bed, I'm expecting the results to have change dramatically upon my awakening
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greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:49:21 AM | message detail
Hey, is Niko making something out of these dead hours right now or are the last two updates flukes? I thought Kefka and Duke would be doing this.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:50:39 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
chaosarcher07 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:51:20 AM | message detail
Duke just dropped off in the last few updates, and it erases nearly a full hour of cutting Marth.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 12:51:21 AM | message detail
General rule is that 1-2 updates = a fluke, while 3 = a trend. Let's see...
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 12:51:40 AM | message detail
Fluke!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:51:49 AM | message detail
Last year, ahaha, I'm not used to a contest being this year yet.

Every time Niko's done this before, Duke's followed it up by piling on a good number of votes. It's like Shadow occasionally stalling Zidane for no reason in the dead of night yesterday. It looked cool....but it didn't mean anything. >_>
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i am false
ZFS | Posted 9/20/2008 12:52:43 AM | message detail
Niko's got a great shot here if his day vote is good. You would think GTAIV being the first real Xbox GTA game that he'd have a killer day vote -- nevermind the fact that GTA characters should already be good during the day. This site having a thing for the 360 could only help there, too. Duke's looking good, but he wins or loses this on how good of a day vote Niko's got.

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let's mosey
greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 12:54:34 AM | message detail
It's also funny that we got a quasi-rematch between GTA and Kefka going on.
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transience | Posted 9/20/2008 12:58:32 AM | message detail
yep, and it looks like Niko is essentially equal to Vercetti. we had a different start time for that though.

for reference, Marth should own the morning while Niko should rock the afternoon. supposedly, that is. Vercetti's decent in the day, but not amazing. gotta hope there's some xbox love there, which is a longshot but still possible.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Gaddswell | Posted 9/20/2008 1:02:52 AM | message detail
Look, there's another Niko spike.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 1:03:32 AM | message detail
Hey, another good Niko update. They are beginning to appear a bit more consistently now. Even if Niko just trades them back and forth, he can still at least stall everyone else.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 1:04:15 AM | message detail
Luster is cheating for GTA again I thought he learned his lesson the first time
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 1:05:11 AM | message detail
I sense bitterness from the man who picked Kefkaangelo
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 1:07:38 AM | message detail
man, this is one impressive four-way stall.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/20/2008 1:07:46 AM | message detail
lalalalala i am not listening

Time to loop Dancing Mad for another hour!
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 1:08:04 AM | message detail
I like how Duke did good there, but Niko didn't suck. Kefka really blew though.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/20/2008 1:08:55 AM | message detail
Screw Dancing Mad, I'm looping this in spite of my bracket.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxcbr3PJ76E
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
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ZFS | Posted 9/20/2008 1:09:18 AM | message detail
What a match

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let's mosey
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/20/2008 1:21:11 AM | message detail
Glad to see Niko sucking so hard, Hope that Altair follows suit. Marth and Duke performing as expected, only question is how hard Kefka will drop. It's always entertaining watching his matches. =P

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/20/2008 1:26:41 AM | message detail
So are there any other match that we can expect where all four are this close to each other?

*looks at the bracket*

Maybe
Donkey Kong
Miles 'Tails' Prower
Tidus
Weighted Companion Cube

Nah I doubt Tails can keep up with the others...

Come on Duke!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/20/2008 1:26:42 AM | message detail
One thing that doesn't sit well with me is that Tommy and CJ never had an especially good day vote. Is it because Niko's on the Xbox that he's expected to storm the day like Fenix or Master Chief?

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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
transience | Posted 9/20/2008 1:27:01 AM | message detail
yeesh

85 - 84 - 82 - 80
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
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