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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 567

ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 4:17:13 PM | message detail
Man I'm really excited for this next match. For some reason I've got a rush of confidence for my Marth > Duke pick. Should be good.

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 4:17:29 PM | message detail
I did, and I'll still be blasting Dancing Mad one minute before the match.

\m/ KEFKA \m/
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/19/2008 4:20:33 PM | message detail
The thing with Lettuce Kefka is anyone that knows Amano Art at least can tell it's a Final Fantasy character. That picture of Kefka we have now looks like some generic dude from some random game. Nobody would realize that as Kefka or an FF character if his name wasn't there or they had seen the FFVI PSX art.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 4:20:45 PM | message detail
I don't think the point is whether it's better or worse than lettuce, it's whether it's Kefka at all. I have utterly no idea what that picture is.

...Name one person who could equate lettuce with Kefka without knowing anything about prior contests.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
ZFS | Posted 9/19/2008 4:21:20 PM | message detail
in Dissidia he looks like the Joker.

Need some Dissidia art

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let's mosey
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 4:21:49 PM | message detail
There is no Dissidia art yet, only the trailer, which someone used for R2.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/19/2008 4:22:58 PM | message detail
Who cares? Anyone who's played FFVI will recognise the name 'Kefka', and like tranny said, the people who'll vote Kefka won't be depending on pics. They lready know what their man looks like, and they know there aren't any other video game characters called 'Kefka'.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:23:15 PM | message detail
Match III: Duke Nukem vs. Kefka vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellic

Information

Name: Duke Nukem
Game/Series From: Duke Nukem series
2007 Results: 1st in round 1, 4th in round 2

Duke was one of the few characters of last contest who lost to a character that they beat in the previous round. This may explain why so little people have faith in him in this match. Of course being a PC character who hasn’t released his next big game in years on GameFAQs doesn’t exactly spell out strength for you.

Name: Kefka
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy VI
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 4th in round 2

This will be Kefka’s third debated match in three consecutive contests. Of the last two Kefka narrowly lost to both Vercetti and Marcus so that doesn’t speak well for his ability to do well in a squeeze. Maybe because a good picture besides his sprites don’t exist.

Name: Marth
Game/Series From: Super Smash Bros. series (and Fire Emblem series)
2007 Results: 3rd in round 1

Last year Marth was put in a position where we had no way to win, however he did surprisingly well against Donkey Kong where many thought he would SFF him. I guess it’s because Marth is a big player in Melee and being a decent pick in Brawl he has become the favourite to win this debated match.

Name: Niko Bellic
Game/Series From: Grand Theft Auto IV
2007 Results: Did not enter

It’s the new guy from the GTA series. He seems to be more popular than CJ though the series itself seems to have dropped so he won’t be stronger than Vercetti was in 2003. This puts him nicely into the mix with his three opponents.

Analysis:

This match reminds me of the Liquid/Alucard/Ness/Zidane match where all four characters are close, however to add to the confusion any of the four characters here have a much more realistic chance of getting any placing than the characters from the match last year. It probably won’t be as exciting as last year’s match where the placing wasn’t finalized until the last update, but truly I have no idea what to expect until after the match starts.

I have to feel sorry for Duke here; just like his match last year no one really paid much attention to him. Now I don’t have him progressing in my bracket, but at least I give him the proper recognition that he deserves. Maybe it’s because he’s a PC character and that there are only a few people on board 8 that actually like him.

Kefka on the other hand get’s a lot of love from board 8, so much that he was the favourite to come in second until near the end of the bracket making period where Niko slipped by him. Being the polar opposite of Frog Kefka has gotten the short end of the stick when it comes to close matches; we all know that he should’ve blown Pac-Man away in 2003 right? His loss to Marcus makes Kefka an unlikely pick, not because Marcus is weak, but because I think Niko has a better chance at being stronger than Marcus.

The release of Brawl is the main reason why Marth is the favourite to place first in this match. Brawl hasn’t done anything to impress me yet, but if you exclude losing to Zack Wario would’ve gotten 67% on Cecil though Zack may have had something to do with Cecil’s percentage. Also while the first two characters were in Brawl Marth is a much bigger fan favourite than Link and Wario. We also don’t have a good reading on Marth, being LFF by Donkey Kong. Even without a significant boost from Brawl I think Marth will have the least problems here.
ZFS | Posted 9/19/2008 4:23:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, I know. Might get some actual art before round 2 if he wins tomorrow.

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let's mosey
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:23:30 PM | message detail
Well, I at least picked Kefka in the hopes he would get his Angel sprite.

Even so, I think this is an improvement over anything else we've seen for him, so he should have a fighting chance at advancing.

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Hot Content: thengamer.com/xstats | board8.wikia.com
He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:23:30 PM | message detail
Niko is one of the newer characters to appear in the contest and while GTA isn’t as huge since the Vice City days, it still one of the must have games of the Xbox360 and PS3. With the sales of GTAIV and Niko being relevant because of how new his game is will help him especially in this format. Speaking of format Vercetti’s performance last year was terrible so maybe the format will be Niko’s demise. One thing that is standing in the way of that happening was that Master Chief was in the same poll which would steal the casual vote away from Vercetti.

Like I’ve said before any four of these characters can place first or second in this poll. Unlike Liquid/Alucard/Ness/Zidane this match may be worth more than four points. Some people have one or even both of their picks advancing to round 3 and even some have one of their picks leaving the division with Link and looking at the strength of this division I can see any of these four having a chance to walk out of this division with Link. Though after Zack’s performance two days ago there may be some competition ahead.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Marth > Niko

charmander6000’s Prediction: Marth – 28.13%, Niko – 25.73%, Duke – 23.21%, Kefka – 22.93%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 2/4 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:24:52 PM | message detail
My analysis, with special guests HM and Ngamer.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 2/4 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
OpenYoEyes | Posted 9/19/2008 4:24:58 PM | message detail
Seriously kefka needs some better pics. Square needs a dissidia trailer with him in it so we dont keep reusing lettuce and handdrawn clowns. they better pick this one for the face shot if kefka makes it there.
http://usuarios.lycos.es/varyfat/ff6kefka.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 4:26:39 PM | message detail
How did you write so much for this match? Like I said, the only thing we can be sure about is Duke coming last, and even that is questionable.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 4:27:44 PM | message detail
BTW, I totally call the Guest Analysis for Zidane's next match. I'm reserving it. >_>

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:29:26 PM | message detail
There is a face shot of Kefka in the Dissidia trailer, but there was no way I could pull a full body shot out of his cameo and Square hasn't released any official art for him yet.

http://people.rit.edu/~zmb0386/KefkaRd2.png

That's him in Dissidia (hello Joker).
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Mustache...and green...
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:30:10 PM | message detail
How did you write so much for this match? Like I said, the only thing we can be sure about is Duke coming last, and even that is questionable.

It's not that much, the true analysis is only about 550 words long. The introduction of each character makes it look bigger. Also I've been writing these since the games contest, there's always something to talk about.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 2/4 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
jonthomson | Posted 9/19/2008 4:35:11 PM | message detail
long time since i checked, it seems to be a bit closer than the last time i looked it up? shadow's doomed anyway, but i can't check gamefaqs on my phone
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
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ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 4:39:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, the last couple of times I've checked Shadow's been cutting into Zidane's lead. Unless he starts to make some gigantic advances COUPLED with a great Zidane drop, it won't matter :(
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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 4:40:42 PM | message detail
there's loads to say about this match, just nothing you can say definitively.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/19/2008 4:42:07 PM | message detail
I feel like I doomed Marth.

I'm sad...
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem fanboyism.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 4:48:26 PM | message detail
Darn, Shadow didn't cut that time :(
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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 4:49:08 PM | message detail
Man, why couldn't Shadow start doing this sooner? Well, I like Zidane a lot better anyway, but for my bracket's sake, it would've been a lot nicer had Shadow not waited so late to look half decent. Of course, he did the same thing last year, so I shouldn't have been so surprised.

Who do you think is the favorite between Shadow and Zidane for 2nd?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 4:50:00 PM | message detail
Gonna assume you meant Zack and Zidane, and Zack is the favorite. It could go either way, though.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 4:50:58 PM | message detail
Right now...Zidane
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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 4:51:17 PM | message detail
I meant the bracket favorite here. My bad.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 4:52:03 PM | message detail
Oh. Shadow, easily. People do pay attention to these contests, if not as much as us; Shadow at least won a match last year, while Zidane tanked.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 4:52:22 PM | message detail
probably Shadow. I'll give Zidane 40% of the brackets.

I'm curious to see how many people have Link second.. though I guess he was first on the dropdown list. regardless, if it's more than 5% we know the order is going to screw people.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 4:52:37 PM | message detail
Oh, in that case definitely Shadow.
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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 4:53:56 PM | message detail
Also, for those who are suggesting Shadow may have canceled out Link's ASV, that doesn't explain what happened in the morning. Shadow didn't do squat with the morning vote.

Still, maybe there is some LFF there. SFF matches usually have like no trends, though Shadow himself is showing trends.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 4:59:24 PM | message detail
you don't cancel out Link. that just doesn't happen.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 5:00:29 PM | message detail
Looks like Zidane is going to keep it above 18% (or at least keep it close then gain it back later). I am pleased.

Still, insane vote shift by Shadow.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 5:00:53 PM | message detail
This match currently has 117,319 votes. At the same time yesterday, Zack/Wario/Cecil/Jade had 116,232. On pace for abut 135,000 votes here, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 5:07:09 PM | message detail
Division 1, Match 3

Duke Nukem

The Duke is back in another heavily debated first round match. That’s just how he likes it, I suppose. He managed to win his match last year due to the sheer obscurity of his fourpack, but he won’t be quite so lucky last year. As his second round match proved, I think Duke will suffer when he’s facing characters people actually know. He’s facing a FF lead villain, a Smash character, and the main character of GTA IV, so there are some characters people actually know. Still, I won’t count him out because this match is all kinds of messed up, but I think last place is the most likely finish for Mr. Nukem.

Kefka

The Character Battle’s perennial underperformer, Kefka is once again put into a favorable position. He had a good shot to win his first round match last year, but he got destroyed by Marcus Fenix’s day vote and didn’t fare too well in his second round match either (though Cloud was there). I personally have a hard time putting my trust in Kefka to do anything because he’s done basically nothing but disappoint his entire contest career. He could win this match outright, or he could bomb yet again. In my opinion, the latter is most likely.

Marth

Now Marth gets a chance to show us what he can really do. Free from Nintendo LFF and fresh off of Brawl, he’s put into a position to do some damage. He did decently last year even with DK in the poll, and with the site in a Brawl frenzy, Marth will be looking to capitalize on it. While there are many viable solutions to this first round mess, none of them (in my opinion) involve Marth failing to advance. He’s the one you have to worry the least about. Each of the other three have good reason to worry about bombing. For that reason alone, I’d say your best bet is to have Marth winning. At worst, he gets second place.

Niko Bellic

Ah, the main character of the newest Grand Theft Auto game makes his debut. Just like the Duke and Kefka, he generates his fair share of doubt. Carl Johnson bombed against Ness (another character who gets the majority of his strength from Smash Bros.), Vercetti’s strength was continually slipping, and it seems like GTA’s overall popular has been slipping as well. Still, I think Niko has reason enough to do well. CJ had some obvious problems, and at Vice City’s peak, Vercetti would’ve had no problem advancing. Niko is considered very likeable, and so I think he can do well here. His potential strength is the highest of the four, in my personal opinion, but he has massive bombing potential as well.

Smash Overestimation Here?
Clowns Are Hopeful
Though Ousted Again

Duke Nukem – 20.12%
Kefka – 25.44%
Marth – 27.33%
Niko Bellic – 27.11%
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/19/2008 5:18:16 PM | message detail
Man I'm really excited for this next match. For some reason I've got a rush of confidence for my Marth > Duke pick. Should be good.

You and me both, ExTha.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Quest For a Second Championship: 2/4 Points. BRAWLFEAR? No, ZACKFAIR!
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 5:49:18 PM | message detail
Let's say Kefka advances tomorrow and Marth doesn't. Does that do anything for your faith in Square/lack of faith in Nintendo, or does it not really affect it at all?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 5:51:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, that would be pretty telling. Can't see Marth losing to Kefka last year.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/19/2008 5:59:43 PM | message detail
Okay, now I'm thinking the match pic won't hurt Kefka bad enough to allow Niko to pass him. In a 2-way match like Samus/Tifa, Samus was badly hurt by her Zero Suit Samus pic. In 4-way matches, one character getting a bad pic means the loss of votes for that character could be split among 3 other characters. So Kefka will be less impacted by a bad pic in 4-way match. If this was a 2-way match, it could make the difference between Kefka winning or losing.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:24:14 PM | message detail
http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=15

Why are so many people picking Falcon?

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:25:58 PM | message detail
The worst character in a Smash Bros. always gets a huge boost, of course! Look at Mewtwo!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:31:23 PM | message detail
Alright, out of boredom I made a list of all Brawl characters in the contest and ranked them based on how much I think Brawl will benefit them.


Good Boost
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Ike
Meta Knight
DeDeDe
Lucario
Snake


A Small Boost
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Pit
Olimar
Sonic


Maybe a Little Boost
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Wario
Luigi
Nana
Kirby
Ness
Lucas


Negligible Amount
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Bowser
Donkey Kong
Mario
Yoshi
Link
Zelda
Ganondorf
Samus
Fox
Falco
Pikachu
Jigglypuff
Peach
Marth


Might Actually Decrease A Bit
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Captain Falcon

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:32:30 PM | message detail
Too bad it doesn't matter for DeDeDe and Pit. Only thing we'll learn from that match which one is the preferred character amongst the fanbase.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:38:33 PM | message detail
Oh, there's no doubt that DDD is preferred. Besides the roles he's played in other Kirby games, he's completley awesome in Brawl.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Gaddswell | Posted 9/19/2008 6:38:51 PM | message detail
You forgot Diddy on your list, KP!

I think DeDeDe should be the more preferred between the two due to Kirby > Kid Icarus. DeDeDe has another known Nintendo series to pull votes from.
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:39:45 PM | message detail
Stick Diddy in the Small Boost section.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 6:41:30 PM | message detail
not seein' why Kirby would boost a little while Marth wouldn't, or why Meta-Knight and DDD would boost a good amount while Pit would only boost a little..
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xyzzy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:42:22 PM | message detail
A lot of casuals like Pit from what I can tell. He's my stepbrother's personal favorite to play as now that Roy's gone, heh. But yeah, DeDeDe can beat Pit because he has more to draw from.

I can see Diddy getting a decent boost from the game because he's a good character in it, though the fact that he appears in every Mario spinoff nowadays may hinder that.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:43:46 PM | message detail
not seein' why Kirby would boost a little while Marth wouldn't, or why Meta-Knight and DDD would boost a good amount while Pit would only boost a little..

Kirby played a big role in SSE, and has been buffed since Melee. Marth is exactly the same. MK is the best character in the game, badass in SSE, and while much more popular among the competitive crowd still has fans in the casuals. Same with DDD. Pit...is just sort of there, and being announced on the trailer a while back already accounts for some of his strength.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 6:44:36 PM | message detail
who the heck cares about the SSE? like, no one.

Marth boosts more due to a.) being weaker and b.) not being as exposed. Kirby is well-known, even without Smash.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:45:12 PM | message detail
Kirby had just about ALL of the memorable moments in SSE though.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
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