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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 567

ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 6:48:51 AM | message detail
I find it ironic if Nintendo did lose a bunch of steps this year - given that Brawl came out in March. It's not outside the realm of possibility to say that Zack is just a low mid-carder and Wario crumbles to even the slightest hint of stronger competition. And of course, with Link in the poll Shadow loses an incredible amount of votes. Zidane may be weak - but he may only be getting out of this match because he isn't Nintendo. Now for those arguments that say Link SFFs everything...well, I can't explain that.

And yeah, Shadow just falls from grace more and more every year.

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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
Starion | Posted 9/19/2008 6:49:09 AM | message detail
Err, but isn't the Wii still consistently outselling the other two systems? That doesn't sound like disappointment to me.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/19/2008 6:50:11 AM | message detail
What in the... I was surprised enough to see that Zidane was beating Shadow last night before I went to bed, but I was expecting him to have tanked a bit since then, not gone up at everyone's expense (even if he's falling now). o_o
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/19/2008 6:52:41 AM | message detail
Err, but isn't the Wii still consistently outselling the other two systems? That doesn't sound like disappointment to me.

There's a difference between the casual market and the GameFAQs market.

Wii is still the dominant system here, but a lot of us simply don't care for it anymore.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/19/2008 7:06:13 AM | message detail
you're saying kefka would underperform against link... because of zelda/terra? sorry bro, you're overthinking that one. it's a simple case of "LOL female bracket".

Just saying we've seen something similar to it before, female bracket or not. If people still debate over whether or not Link hurt Crono last year after Crono stood strong against him in 2k4, then bringing up Link hurting Kefka this year after Zelda unusually decimated Terra in 2k6 isn't out of the question.

Zack's the favorite with or without that factor and I doubt Kefka makes it that far, but I still doubt it'll be a legit comparison of their positions on FF's totem pole should they face off.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118
Starion | Posted 9/19/2008 7:08:59 AM | message detail
True. The Wii's third party support is fairly weak just like the GC days. Except that this time, they are far more profitable and lead the hardware sales data. But Nintendo still has the DS though and that system is definitely far from a disappointment.
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 7:14:54 AM | message detail
Wii is still the dominant system here, but a lot of us simply don't care for it anymore.

This is so true imo. Got a Wii back in February, maybe I'm just buying the wrong type of software for it, but I haven't touched it since before July. I've been thinking about selling it and using the money from that to pick up a 360

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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 7:21:51 AM | message detail
Good stall on Zidane there Shadow.....>_>
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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 7:27:08 AM | message detail
Hey, he did it again!

Come on Shadow...now start cutting into his lead...do...eeet.

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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII
NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 7:51:36 AM | message detail
Why is Link still under 60%? Why is Zidane doing as well as he did in his fourpack with Alucard/Liquid/Ness except with Link here? Why is Shadow...letting me down? Why is Luke not below 5%?!?

two matches in and this is already my least favorite contest ever darn you final fantasy and darn you floptendo
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Moltar Status: =D
Link/Luke/Shadow/Zidane - Bracket: Link > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (2/4)
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 7:55:22 AM | message detail
Link/Agent J/Bidoof/Edgeworth at 10:45 - 66739
Link/Shadow/Zidane/Luke at 10:45 - 60753

Link's total votes in LABE at 10:45 - 44406
Link's total votes in LSZL at 10:45 - 36175

Link's percentage in LABE at 10:45 - 66.54%
Link's percentage in LSZL at 10:45 - 59.54%

Hmmmm.
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"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 7:56:51 AM | message detail
Interestingly, Zidane has almost exactly as many votes right now as he did at this time during Alucard/L Snake/Ness/Zidane. Close percentage too.
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"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Tohoya | Posted 9/19/2008 7:56:54 AM | message detail
Zidane's getting like 24% on Link

Zidane > Zack confirmed!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:00:48 AM | message detail
And Zidane's final vote total in Alucard/L Snake/Ness/Zidane is almost the same as it was at the end of Crono/Zidane.

Doesn't look like Zidane actually boosted, he's simply one of the most consistent characters we've seen.
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"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/19/2008 8:02:51 AM | message detail
Random sidenote - I don't see how having Link > Vincent in the Semis is cookie cutter >_>
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2/4 points - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VII I NP: Link > Shadow the Hedgehog
charmander6000 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:07:44 AM | message detail
Random sidenote - I don't see how having Link > Vincent in the Semis is cookie cutter >_>

The match would probably be...

Link
Mario
Samus
Vincent (or Crono)

Unless L-Block pulls some magic like he did last year it will be 1 Square vs 3 Nintendo. Some people don't think the fanbases are distinct enough for two Nintendo characters to squeeze by Vincent.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 2/4 Today's Match: Link > Shadow
The_Ocelot2 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:13:47 AM | message detail
Dammit I had Zack to the quarters for the longest time (it seemed painfully obvious) and then for some stupid reason I switched to Shadow at the last minute.
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JaKyL25 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:14:37 AM | message detail
I still have no faith in Kefka tomorrow.

Old Square =/= New Square

Of course, I've only gotten 2 points in each match so far, so meh.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:20:07 AM | message detail
I think Zack will beat Zidane. It's like Zidane gets 22k votes no matter who he's against, and Zack shouldn't have much trouble with that even with SFF.

Zidane has a small but very dedicated fanbase, and I think having someone like Link taking over a huge portion of the vote is the only way he'd have ever passed a match. Unless Link somehow SFFs Zack, I think Zack's got this next round.
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"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
vcharon | Posted 9/19/2008 8:24:16 AM | message detail
My faith in Kefka is slightly renewed. So long as he doesn't get lettuced, I think he'll do fine. There's no way Zidane is stronger than Kefka all of a sudden, and I can't picture any of Kefka's opponents (minus Niko's untested strength) being greater than Shadow.
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:>
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 8:34:35 AM | message detail
What's so unreasonable about Zidane being stronger than Kefka? We've only seen Zidane in one standard match; it was against Crono, and he held up better than Kefka did against the same opponent. Of course, Zidane looked unimpressive last year, but so did the clown man.
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vcharon | Posted 9/19/2008 8:42:42 AM | message detail
Kefka looked good in this format last year. Losing slightly to Marcus Fenix was not a bad thing. And he still managed to get within a few points of Fenix/Ocelot despite Cloud obviously SFFing him to hell and back. I think he was "better than usual", maybe not impressive, but not bad. Zidane looked terrible.

Even if Kefka is a little less strong than Zidane for some reason, he won't need that to advance against these guys. Maybe Zack and Zidane are fooling me, but FF looks like it has improved strength this year.
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:>
Yesmar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:46:48 AM | message detail
Hmm....I am very surprised to see Zidane doing so well here. Shadow's not doing *that* bad or anything (This still puts him above the fodder line. He definitely has a shot at getting there with the ASV), but Zidane is doing really well. I guess that this does support the theory that the 4th character in the match underperforms. I just didn't think that Zidane was affected since no one in his match was that far away from him or anything. This somewhat implies that he should have been keeping up with Ness for that match.

I honestly wonder if the FFVII themed banner is affecting popularities or anything. Kefka should give us a good hint tomorrow.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/19/2008 8:48:38 AM | message detail
Above the fodder line is pretty crazy for a guy who went toe-to-toe with Mario

I don't think any one character has declined this extremely
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Yesmar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:50:06 AM | message detail

I don't think any one character has declined this extremely


Link/Ganondorf

Both of Shadow's extremes have been cause by anamolies, so I don't see why Ganondorf's can't be used instead.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:51:25 AM | message detail

vcharon (#222)
Maybe Zack and Zidane are fooling me, but FF looks like it has improved strength this year.


As I argued above, Zidane seems to be the most static character around. Got around 22k in 2005, around 22k in 2007, and right now he's close to the same amount of votes as he was at this time in 2007 and looks to end at around 22k votes again. The guy has a small but very devoted fanbase.

I don't think there's a FF boost. Zidane seems the same but benefiting from having a guy like Link taking up most of the vote instead of three equal characters duking it out rather evenly. Zack has Crisis Core to make him a known entity, but that only really helps Zack and maybe a couple other FF7 characters. Good performances by two FF characters, but they're easily explainable enough that I don't buy a general FF boost until I see more matches.
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"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/19/2008 8:54:27 AM | message detail
Oh god, this is so damn awesome. Go Zidane go!
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:55:41 AM | message detail
Zidane in Link/Zidane/Shadow/Luke at 11:49 - 12823
Zidane in Alucard/L Snake/Ness/Zidane at 11:49 - 12970

Zidane's final vote total in ALNZ - 24234
Zidane's final vote total against Crono - 22636
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"[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf
Yesmar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:57:53 AM | message detail

As I argued above, Zidane seems to be the most static character around. Got around 22k in 2005, around 22k in 2007, and right now he's close to the same amount of votes as he was at this time in 2007 and looks to end at around 22k votes again. The guy has a small but very devoted fanbase.


I'm not sure I agree with this. I think that Zidane's performances all falling within the same range is coincidence. We've been talking about characters with static popularites like this for years, and with the exception of L-Block whose a joke character, nothing has really seemed to support this theory. CATS got around 10,000-15,000 votes in his first three matches, and then in Sp2005, he blew that open and got three times that much. I'm a little skeptical of non-joke characters getting specific votals no matter what, especially when compared across periods of differing vote totals.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
vcharon | Posted 9/19/2008 8:58:29 AM | message detail
I don't know if I can buy the theory that Link is SFFing Shadow so much to cause him look like he's near the fodder line. Like people keep saying, this is the same guy who got 45% on Mario. If he was really Ganondorf, he'd had failed really badly in his Mario match... but that wasn't the case.

So all of a sudden the Sega/Nintendo fanbase is exactly the same? I just don't think so.

Kefka will give us a good idea if FF has any added strength this year, but basing things off his performances seems... I don't know, wrong on so many levels.
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:>
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 9:03:07 AM | message detail
two matches in and this is already my least favorite contest ever darn you final fantasy and darn you floptendo

Two matches in and I'm already lovin' this contest, even though I wasn't at all excited about it before for the same reasons!
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Yesmar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:04:47 AM | message detail
Zidane in Link/Zidane/Shadow/Luke at 11:49 - 12823
Zidane in Alucard/L Snake/Ness/Zidane at 11:49 - 12970


A/L/N/Z was held on a weekend, meaning that if Zidane is on par with his performance there now, he should start doing better than it once the ASV roles in.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
KronicYouth | Posted 9/19/2008 9:05:18 AM | message detail
Not to mention that the votals have changed dramatically over the years. Getting 22K back in the day is a hell of a lot more impressive than it is today... or well would be if this weren't 4-ways. Seems far more coincidental than anything to me. That's not to say that Zidane's fanbase isn't very hardcore, and he's thusly benefitting from the format. It's very reasonable, especially for the love/hate game that FF9 seems to be (sux sux sux). Either way, I think I thought higher of Zidane than most people so this result isn't that crazy to me today. I thought he'd give Shadow more of a run for his money than Zack would have anyway, granted that was also thinking Zack would be weaker than he appears to be now.

Does today's result give Wario a chance of advancing now? Personally don't think so, but y'know I'd like to get other peoples views on it. I'm hoping to god Zidane comes in 2nd next match though, it'd be classic to see when we spent a month arguing Shadow or Zack? But most importantly, Kefka needs to kick some ass and take some names tomorrow.
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can you dig it?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 9:08:56 AM | message detail
I don't think this does much (too foolish to say it won't do anything in a format this wacky) for Zack's chances. Link will keep Wario under 10%, and while Zidane may prove a mild threat, I'll take cool looking, relatively obscure FFVII guy over FFIX main character guy, especially when FFVII guy can get 44% in any 4way poll.
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voltch | Posted 9/19/2008 9:12:44 AM | message detail
for a minute i thought Shadow not advancing screwed me over,til i remembered i don't even have him placing in 2nd next round,but i expect the perfects to take a beating again today.
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KronicYouth | Posted 9/19/2008 9:14:10 AM | message detail
Yeah... I'm having a tough time trying to figure out where I'd put Zidane in yesterday's match had you replaced Zack with him. I feel like he should be able to beat Wario given the quality of the characters in the match, and what he's doing today, but I'm torn as to how high of a % he could really nab in a 4-way. Who knows... anything at this point is pretty clueless speculation imo. I'm pretty content with sitting back and waiting for the match to go down instead of attempting to analyze the hell out of it.

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can you dig it?
Midget_Fetish | Posted 9/19/2008 9:17:00 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be that surprised if we had <50 perfects after this match, I'd be surprised if we have any perfects left after this division is done with.
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KronicYouth | Posted 9/19/2008 9:19:02 AM | message detail
After this division is when I think I'll really be able to start getting into this contest. Going in I felt pretty good about everything in my bracket outside this cluster****. I basically just went with what felt right and said **** it, 'cause I honestly had no clue. If I get Link > Kefka right I won't be too proud about it, I'll just be happy that I was lucky enough to get it right. The rest of the divisions is what I can take pride in.

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can you dig it?
transcience | Posted 9/19/2008 9:20:16 AM | message detail
hahaha Shadow you couldn't even take the morning vote

uh, I don't see why people are claiming this means good things for Kefka. slow down there, guys. it's not like Cecil blew everyone away or anything, and he's more similar to Kefka than Zidane is. Kefka can certainly do well tomorrow but I don't think it has anything to do with this match.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transcience | Posted 9/19/2008 9:21:29 AM | message detail
and as for Nintendo, we've only had Wario and Link, and Link's currently putting up 60% on two midcarders (?). I mean, unless you think Zidane is a joke and Shadow's fallen off the earth, at which point it wouldn't be all "SQUARE IS BACK", so...
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
KronicYouth | Posted 9/19/2008 9:23:16 AM | message detail
stop being reasonable tranny take a ride on the good vibes train SQUAREFAQS
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can you dig it?
transience | Posted 9/19/2008 9:23:58 AM | message detail
choo choo
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
transience | Posted 9/19/2008 9:26:03 AM | message detail
Link couldn't even take the morning vote, though. that's weird.. new trends?
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Yesmar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:26:32 AM | message detail
Shadow/Zidane Hourlies so far:

Time | Shadow Zidane
01:00 | 45.04% | 54.96%
02:00 | 42.65% | 57.35%
03:00 | 41.57% | 58.43%
04:00 | 39.91% | 60.09%
05:00 | 40.57% | 59.43%
06:00 | 38.48% | 61.52%
07:00 | 43.20% | 56.80%
08:00 | 45.40% | 54.60%
09:00 | 43.44% | 56.56%
10:00 | 44.50% | 55.50%
11:00 | 44.25% | 55.75%
12:00 | 44.63% | 55.37%

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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
KronicYouth | Posted 9/19/2008 9:26:46 AM | message detail
yes, the trend of SQUAREFAQS

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can you dig it?
Yesmar | Posted 9/19/2008 9:28:20 AM | message detail
So I guess, Shadow did take the Morning Vote, and Zidane's not really doing much with the Mid-Day vote. Will be interesting to see what happens with the ASV.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt
Kegger9 | Posted 9/19/2008 9:29:04 AM | message detail
FF4 characters are just plain crappy, at least Kefka had a personality and is recognizable


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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 9:56:43 AM | message detail
Cecil was getting SFF'd by Zack! That's why he didn't look so hot! SquareFAQs in full force!

Does today's result give Wario a chance of advancing now?

You see the guy with nearly 60% in today's poll? Yeah, Wario's got no shot with him in the same poll next round.

Speaking of which, why is Link still below 60%? And why is Luke still above 6%? What is this world coming to? Link wasn't even dominant in the morning, and Wario wasn't that good all day yesterday. We'll have to wait and see what happens with the ASV. That'll tell us a lot.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
_Hogger_ | Posted 9/19/2008 10:18:06 AM | message detail
You know... Shadow just gained for the first time in the match, last update.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 10:23:36 AM | message detail
They're the same phenomenon with different effects in four-ways depending on the relative strength of the characters.

Actually no. In any 1v1 SFF match, votals are obviously lower due to less diversity in fanbases. Add more characters that have a different fanbase, and they capitalize on this phenomena. SFF is fanbase overlap. It doesn't have to imply a 90-10 beating.
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