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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 567

Gaddswell | Posted 9/18/2008 11:15:44 PM | message detail
Dammit, 7 votes away from a cut
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/18/2008 11:16:39 PM | message detail
This match is awesome.

look man i think the last insult any one of us in here needs to be using against one another is nerd


I agree with this logic.
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Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/18/2008 11:50:05 PM | message detail
Ha ha Shadow the failhog.

I feel sorry for those who got Shadow in the quarterfinals. I don't think that a comeback is completely out of the picture, but I don't mind lossing my perfect bracket to see Zidane FINALLY doing something in these contests.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/18/2008 11:52:10 PM | message detail

Zylo the wolf (#103)
Ha ha Shadow the failhog.

I feel sorry for those who got Shadow in the quarterfinals. I don't think that a comeback is completely out of the picture, but I don't mind lossing my perfect bracket to see Zidane FINALLY doing something in these contests.



After seeing my favorite character (woo putting bias into mah bracket) get killed yesterday, seeing Shadow get smacked around is fine by me.

At the same time, I wouldn't mind a massive comeback, just because of how awesome SA2 is.....that and something to help keep my attention leading up to Marth/Kefka/Miko/Duke would be nice.
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i am false
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/18/2008 11:53:57 PM | message detail
Zidane only gained 4 votes in the last update. Sign of a comeback?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/18/2008 11:55:18 PM | message detail

Zylo the wolf (#105)
Zidane only gained 4 votes in the last update. Sign of a comeback?



Shadow's showed signs of slowing down Zidane before dropping 50 in an update and getting stalled by Luke. He's gotta reel Zidane in a bit before I'll reach for the comeback sign. >_>
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i am false
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:00:45 AM | message detail
Wow, Link, what a joke. With Shadow hurting his day vote gains he might end below 60.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:02:38 AM | message detail
Yikes LInk just drooped 0.09% in just one update...

Maybe the L-Block gave him a scar?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 12:04:16 AM | message detail
final character fantasy battle VII

believe

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:05:21 AM | message detail
Cloud > Link in the finals is lookin good today!

Hell Black Haired Cloud might beat him to the punch in round 2...!
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Keno316 | Posted 9/19/2008 12:06:43 AM | message detail
Link sure is bleeding a lot. Morning should correct that, but its still kinda weird to see.

Loving what I'm seeing from Zidane, though.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims Kiddy Grade's Eclair & C.C.*
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 12:06:45 AM | message detail
Man Lopen, if you had Cloud > Chief instead of Chief > Cloud in that one match I'd say your bracket was looking pretty tight.

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:06:58 AM | message detail
Of course Zack will. I bet Wario will hurt Link more then what Zidane will to Zack.


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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
ZFS | Posted 9/19/2008 12:07:38 AM | message detail
Hell Black Haired Cloud might beat him to the punch in round 2...!

the makings of a believer !

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let's mosey
transience | Posted 9/19/2008 12:08:22 AM | message detail
I know everyone's going nuts about Zidane vs. Shadow - which is shaping up to be a hell of a match given Shadow's morning vote - but I can't stop watching Link here. watching him die like this is pretty unusual. it's way too early and insignificant to start suggesting anything, but Link doesn't really look so great given how he started. dude's lost percentage for like 15 updates in a row. yikes.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/19/2008 12:10:36 AM | message detail
Where the hell are those updates going Link?
---
Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:11:47 AM | message detail
Honestly watching Link plummet and watching the mighty LUKE FON FABRE fight for 7% is more interesting to me than the actual match right now... it's terrible. Link is withering away from being contained in this utter fodder division, clearly.

And pfft, even if MC slips into second (I'm not confident in this upset, I'll admit... I just think the chance is much higher than 0%) I'm still breaking even with most of the fools who foolishly have some nonsense like Cloud > Snake.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
transience | Posted 9/19/2008 12:12:38 AM | message detail
and as I say that, he finally does something.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/19/2008 12:13:54 AM | message detail
Clearly, people realising TP sucked and Him being crappy again in Smash Brothers is clearly butchering Link.
---
Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/19/2008 12:21:41 AM | message detail
If Shadow's within reach in 10 hours time -> n_n
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Smurf. The cream of Sonic Fanboyism
you're like some devious internet fiend- Majin
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 12:22:30 AM | message detail
Yeah I'm actually not feeling too shabby about Shadow right now. Zidane and Luke are really gonna drop off while Link and Shadow rape all morning.

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/19/2008 12:24:37 AM | message detail
Knowing the SNOIC dayvote, shouldnt be too hard to break bout 1100. Then agian Link(Or RINKU in that mystical land called Japan Land) in there.....

Ah nuts to this, Ima go do something.










Not Fap mind you, already did that.
---
Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:24:40 AM | message detail
So if Zidane can advance from this, can Balthier advance in his fourpack?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/19/2008 12:29:32 AM | message detail
Well, Zidane's advancing here due to some sort of SFF... I don't think there's anything in Balthier's match that can hold Gordon back from advancing like Link is doing for Shadow here.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:31:05 AM | message detail
Don't think this is SFF. That being said, Gordon Freeman enjoys this format, so he shouldn't have any problems getting second.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Gaddswell | Posted 9/19/2008 12:36:37 AM | message detail
And Zidane hits 19%.
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http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:37:44 AM | message detail
And so the comeback begins.

With a 2 vote cut!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
_Harmonica_ | Posted 9/19/2008 12:37:54 AM | message detail
oh god a 2 vote cut

zidane is finished
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:41:30 AM | message detail
Unless this contest is any different than all the others, Zidane will get a huge update now....
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:43:07 AM | message detail
Well okay, 2 vote cut seems pathetic... but Zidane kinda needs to be rolling, here, this is Square's best time.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:44:07 AM | message detail
I still thinks Zidane is safe if he hits 1300 votes. It's Shadow here, not Knuckles or Sonic.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
Gaddswell | Posted 9/19/2008 12:48:29 AM | message detail
And Zidane hits 1300 votes. >_>
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/19/2008 12:49:26 AM | message detail
Yeah it's over.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 12:51:46 AM | message detail
Heh, we saw the same seeds of doubt sown early last year. It was a mysterious new format, and Cloud looked really good in those first few rounds, while Link didn't dominate quite as much as we expected. Of course, Link ended up beating Cloud and losing to the block. Like last year, I can't see anything but an ultra beefed up joke challenging Link. He'll have taken out Mario and Samus before the finals, leaving him as the lone serious Nintendo option with Cloud and a combination of two legit contenders and/or jokes.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 12:57:36 AM | message detail
Mario being eliminated before the finals should not be thought of as a certainty. People tend to just think "SFF" and forget that the guy held tough with more % than Crono/Vincent did against a stronger pack with Link in it. Course Samus will be there too for still more SFF, but my money's on Mario regardless.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 1:00:26 AM | message detail
Lots of things need to happen in order for my Cloud > Link option to go through, as HM has probably already said(he's the one that got me thinking about this in the first place.)

Link and Mario need to get to the finals, and Cloud and NOTSephiroth need to get there as well. Preferrably Snake, who can take that little bit more of Link's Brawl support from him.

That's some really fine pickings for Cloud to finally complete the upset, don't you think?

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 1:02:47 AM | message detail
That's what I've got, with my notSeph being MC obviously. Though I think as long as Sephiroth isn't there Cloud has a chance of upsetting Link. Yearly variation is not to be underestimated. Mario just helps his chances.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 1:10:35 AM | message detail
That's some really fine pickings for Cloud to finally complete the upset, don't you think?

Yeah, that's a very solid reason to take Cloud. The problem, of course, is Mario - he must make the finals, as everyone now knows Cloud can't win this without outside help. Mario is primed for a quarterfinal match against Link, Samus, and L-Block/Vincent/Crono, and any of those three will provide a monumental challenge (in fact, if L makes it that far, Mario may as well pack things up). L-Block would be a clear game over, but having to deal with either of the Square guys won't be much easier. Heck, Zidane is proving that for us right now.

While I understand your reasoning and won't dare call it crazy (I have a bag of ****ing sand in the finals), it is a big longshot.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 1:14:31 AM | message detail
Oh by no means is my pick safe, hell I'd call it teetering on insane. I just kept looking at my Link > Cloud pick in the finals and was just like "boring."

And of course, when you listen to Heroic Mario, he can be very persuasive.

"believe"

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 1:15:13 AM | message detail
Yearly variation is not to be underestimated. Mario just helps his chances.

I don't think standard yearly variation will be enough in this case, not when Link has spent the last four years proving to be a cut above the rest (L-Block notwithstanding; man does it get old saying that!). While I don't think a legitimate, Cloud>Link result without the aid of SFF is impossible, I think there would have to be a significant reason for it. Right now, the only thing I can come up with is something we've touched on before - dissatisfaction and frustration with Nintendo after a year of Wii Fits.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Djungelurban | Posted 9/19/2008 1:21:14 AM | message detail
So... Anyone else with 8 points after two rounds? Just me then? Ok... :D
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B.B. Hood for CB -09
The apples were too strong for him.
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 1:22:33 AM | message detail
And yet, other characters have overturned greater deficits for seemingly no reason (or too little reason to justify the change). Mario went from a 47-53 vs Crono to a 53-47. Mega Man went from 57-43 on Snake to 43-57 (okay that was partially a Brawl announcement but I can't think that that was all of it.). Mega Man went from 50-50 on Seph to 40-60. Samus went from 50-50 with Sonic to 57-43. And it just keeps goin.

It's not something you bet on, certainly, but it's definitely fine as a backup plan in case the bracket doesn't go exactly the way you want. Yearly variation doesn't get enough credit in this topic... and really, why should it, kinda puts a damper on all of our analysis if we always preface it with "well also this match could just flop randomly the opposite of how we expect it to go, just because the votebase changes." Cloud is not too far away from Link to hope for a turn. Everyone else, yeah, but not Cloud, not yet.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
__hiei__ | Posted 9/19/2008 1:22:54 AM | message detail
oh look

a cut.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 1:32:31 AM | message detail
But Cloud has had three shots at a yearly variation turnaround since his 04 loss and hasn't capitalized. I'll admit that this may be his best shot for a win since 2004, but if he manages the unthinkable (which, once again, is really unlikely without SFF, but we go through this discussion every year before Link decides to get medieval), I'd have a hard time chocking it up to simple variation.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 1:38:45 AM | message detail
Oh, you're right, it probably won't be variation if he does do it. But the point is that the two aren't at an insurmountable distance. 54-46 isn't a huge gap by any means.

And honestly, even if he wins entirely due to variation, we'll just make up a reason for it anyway.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/19/2008 1:39:24 AM | message detail
I see Snake taking it before Cloud can again to be honest
---
Warning, there is a bear right behind you.
Ride Him.
TheCatWhoSwims | Posted 9/19/2008 1:43:35 AM | message detail
Well, and here I thought this match was a doozy.
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B8BL Gambling Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=39885921
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 1:46:17 AM | message detail
Good call on this one, Shake.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/19/2008 1:49:36 AM | message detail
I'm wondering how far Zidane needs to get for me to truly feel this match is over beyond a Shadow (oh man I'm too good ha ha) of a doubt. 2000, maybe? Looks like he'll be getting that... though I think the Europe vote should be kicking in kinda soon so maybe Shadow will start fighting back.
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Master Chief's quest to defeat Cloud: Round 1 - Raiden/Kain/Other Dude.
Target: 48%. GAME FUEL. Believe
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 1:51:13 AM | message detail
Shadow's definitely gonna need to start slowing things down here soon because Zidane's kicking his ass at the moment.

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Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd
character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe
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