GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 567
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| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:45:26 PM | message detail |
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who the heck cares about the SSE? like, no one. It matters when it blatantly focuses on certain characters. Hooray for Sakurai bias. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 6:46:20 PM | message detail |
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I don't remember any of them! the only one I remember was, like, Lucas being a little ***** and Fox saving him. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:46:48 PM | message detail |
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Psh, then you aren't a true fan. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/19/2008 6:47:07 PM | message detail |
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Fox and Lucas don't even meet in SSE until the whole crew gets together! --- http://i169.photobucket.com/albums/u205/MapleMasta/IkeClimbers2.jpg |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:47:56 PM | message detail |
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There's only 2 hours left in the poll and Zidane is still bleeding. Does the second night vote even exist anymore? --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 6:48:17 PM | message detail |
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man how do you guys remember this (Lucas would *still* boost more than Kirby due to, y'know, actually existing across the sea for the first time) --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:48:53 PM | message detail |
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Kirby with the Dragoon! Aw yeah Dragoon Parts boost --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/19/2008 6:51:51 PM | message detail |
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Nobody remembers SSE because it was so god awful. The most memorable
part of it was finishing it and saying "whew" I never have to play that
trash ever again. also "FALCON PAAAAAAAWNCH!!!!" --- Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd character battle vii ; final fantasy vii. do you believe |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:53:15 PM | message detail |
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Preliminary stats for this match: Link – 50.00% Zidane Tribal – 22.73% Shadow the Hedgehog – 20.23% Luke fon Fabre – 9.14% For the record, Zidane gets 55.50% on Shadow and 79.89% on Luke. Shadow gets 77.41% on Luke. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:58:08 PM | message detail |
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Shadow's managed to cut off 600 votes so far. Might be able to get it under 3000 before the end. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 6:59:23 PM | message detail |
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Zidane (2005c) VS Link (2005c) Zidane has a strength of 18.57. Link has a strength of 54.56. Link wins with 82.98% of the vote! A win of 76,066 with 115,314 total votes cast. Tell me Link isn't SFFing Shadow here. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 6:59:46 PM | message detail |
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Hmm...take Wario's x-stat from last year, add on 1%, and extrapolate Zack from there. What does he get on Link? --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/19/2008 6:59:46 PM | message detail |
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Link isn't SFFing Shadow here. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 7:00:45 PM | message detail |
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BT, it doesn't matter much that Link is SFFing Shadow. This is just a
very impressive result for Zidane no matter which way you slice it. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 7:01:29 PM | message detail |
| Wario's value from the 2 mass Nintendo SFF matches? |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 7:02:36 PM | message detail |
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He was assigned a strength of 17.68, and considering how close he came
to Captain Effing Falcon I'd say that's in the right ballpark. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 7:05:58 PM | message detail |
| When you put it that way, I begin to wonder why I had Wario > Zack |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 7:07:15 PM | message detail |
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I never expected Wario to be strong, I just expected Zack to flop. Oh, how that turned out. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/19/2008 7:16:03 PM | message detail |
| Zidane was taken out by Crono back in 2k5, so it's possible he was stronger than indicated by the stats. Last year didn't make it appear that way though. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 7:16:49 PM | message detail |
| Last year he was the 4th weakest character in a
poll, and also had two stronger PS1 characters in it. It's very
possible he looked worse than he should've. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 8:05:16 PM | message detail |
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http://media.putfile.com/Final-Fantasy-VI---Dancing-Mad-Once-Again-Remix Niko Bellic... YOU!!! --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 8:12:12 PM | message detail |
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So does Kefka take the overall lead overnight before completely collapsing in the day? I think so |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 8:13:12 PM | message detail |
| I just think this is Link/Shadow overlap, and Zidane is still a complete jobber. We'll know more next round when Wario ends up finishing higher than him. |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/19/2008 8:14:14 PM | message detail |
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I just think this is Link/Shadow overlap, and Zidane is still a
complete jobber. We'll know more next round when Wario ends up
finishing higher than him. ahahahaha good one --- DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716 |
| NotTerrafire | Posted 9/19/2008 8:16:15 PM | message detail |
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/20/2008 4:13:12 AM (#473) Ugh, you really don't like Zidane. Time to adjust to SquareZAQs. |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/19/2008 8:17:06 PM | message detail |
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I just think this is Link/Shadow overlap, and Zidane is still a
complete jobber. We'll know more next round when Wario ends up
finishing higher than him. LOL, Turtle you saw how horrible Wario looked last year in that 3 way SFF match with Sephiroth right? Imagine how he's going to look against Link. --- Demyx is better than Axel. |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/19/2008 8:23:44 PM | message detail |
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trend watch: Duke Nukem: lost the day vote to Freeman, even if it was the Worst Comeback Ever. got destroyed by Ike in the daytime. good night vote of course. Marth: day vote god, of course. probably a great early vote too. Kefka: has an AWESOME first hour, a good first four a la Frog or Crono, and then just utterly dies. worse than Duke Nukem in the day. Niko: you'd think he'd be a day guy. the opening vote probably isn't too kind, but he probably does a lot better after the initial rush. should probably have some brackets on his side too. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 8:25:32 PM | message detail |
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No matter who wins, I can definitely see Kefka leading until morning, where Marth and Niko will pass him with the day vote. It will be a slow gradual bleed though, due to lack of ASV. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:28:33 PM | message detail |
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Division 1: Round 1 - Match 3 – Duke Nukem vs. Kefka vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellic Moltar’s Analysis Duke Game/Series Known From: Duke Nukem 2007 Results: 1st Place in Round 1 vs. Gordon, Ike and Guybrush 4th Place in Round 2 vs. Sonic, Sub-Zero and Gordon The Duke is back with more bubblegum to chew Kefka Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VI 2007 Results: 2nd Place in Round 1 vs. Marcus Fenix, Tom Nook and Zelos 4th Place in Round 2 vs. Cloud, Marcus Fenix and Ocelot Kefka and debatable matches go together like Board 8 and Phoenix Wright Marth Game/Series Known From: Fire Emblem 2007 Results: 3rd Place in Round 1 vs. Kratos, DK and Prince of all Cosmos Brawl Character #3, and you know, his popularity comes from the Smash series Niko Game/Series Known From: Grand Theft Auto IV 2007 Results: N/A Niko, my cousin, welcome to the GameFAQs Character Battles! Well, Link easily takes first place, but the real question is who takes second. This is one of the most dangerous and hardest to call matches of Round 1. Not only are the top 2 slots up for grabs, but a winner here could end up walking out of this division. So let’s look at everyone first. Duke shocked a lot of people by winning his fourpack last year, which was pretty much garbage. You have GFNW, a Brawl-hype powered Ike, and Guybrush, who could be beat by anything. He then went on to get crushed once he actually faced competition. Once again, Duke gets stuck in a weak Round 1 fourpack, so he has a chance of advancing yet again. Kefka has a history of not performing up to par. From his 2003 debut being a poor performance against Pac-Man, Kefka has continued to let everyone who puts even the slightest amount of faith in him down. Knuckes? Ulti-style blowout. A falling Vercetti? Not even barriers could help him win. 2006? Kefka doesn’t even show up! 2007 is what we want to look at though, as it’s a 4-way match. Kefka blows the lead in both his matches to Marcus Fenix. Of course, there is the chance that being with Cloud hurt, but even in Round 1 Kefka couldn’t beat Fenix. Will being the only Square character here give him an advantage? Marth is only decent here because of his appearances in one of the biggest series on GameFAQs, Super Smash Bros. He’s great to play in both games, and his popularity has lead to Fire Emblem being a decent-selling series here. Marth didn’t look too bad last year with DK in the poll to SFF him. This time around, Marth is the only Nintendo character, and he has Brawl behind him to give him a boost. Niko is the last character, and the one everyone has their eyes on. We’ve seen GTA flop before in GTA vs. Warcraft. We even saw the new character, CJ, job to Ness of all characters. Vercetti is also getting old, and he looked terrible in 2007. This isn’t the best track record for GTA, but things can turn around with Niko. His game is very fresh and did very well, both in sales and reviews. The game is popular at GameFAQs, but the big question is if people care for and will vote for Niko. This match is horrible because you have to put a lot of faith in either Kefka or GTA, and from looking back at past contests; both of those are very bad moves to make. I think Marth will take first here without too much sweat. He looked good last year, and being the only Nintendo character AND having Brawl should help him a bit (and before you make the inevitable Wario comparison, Marth is favored more than Wario by the Nintendo fanbase, so he is less likely to flop). Second is a toss-up between Kefka, Niko and Duke. Duke could take it, considering no one here is strong. However, this fourpack is a lot more casual friendly than his group last year, so I don’t think Duke has that great of a shot. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:28:52 PM | message detail |
| The big question for me is Niko or Kefka for
second. For weeks I had Kefka advancing, but I just didn’t feel good
about it, and I didn’t have any real reasoning behind it except “Well,
Kefka may have lost to Fenix last year but he didn’t do that bad in
Round 1 and Cloud held him back in Round 2”. Then on the last day I
switched to Niko, and now I feel a lot better about the match. Niko has
a great shot if he’s as strong as Fenix was, and I don’t see why he
wouldn’t be as GTA4 is bigger than Gears. Yeah, he could turn out to be
another CJ, but I’d rather go with the unknown this time around. Besides, have you seen Kefka’s pic? Niko looks awesome and Kefka got…that thing. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Marth > Niko Moltar’s Prediction is: Marth: 31% - Niko: 26% - Kefka: 24% - Duke: 19% Heroic Mario’s Analysis Back to the good matches. Zack aside, this was probably the most argued match of the bracket. You can make a case for any of these four making it to the next round. And what's worse is that the two you pick here are going to at least round 3. Makes this match actually meaningful due to the number of points at stake. My gut reaction was to go with Kefka over Marth, but after reading some arguments - and coming to the realization that Amano art was a guarantee here - I decided to back off of Kefka and go with Niko, who's another big question mark. The only character I'm confident that makes it out of here is Marth. He did well enough last year and he's coming off of Brawl, and it helps that he's a unique character in this situation. So it comes down to the Duke, Kefka, and Niko. As much as Kefka should have no problems taking this, he has a problem losing matches that he has no business losing. And Niko's not only a likeable protagonist, but also fresh off of GTAIV's enormous success. How GTA does on GameFAQs is certainly questionable, and Vercetti wasn't lighting anyone on fire last year, but with Vice City being so far removed from the public mindset that's probably not too surprising. GTA characters strike me as doing their absolute best when a GTA has just recently come out, and they continue to dwindle as the years pass and other games are released. With GTAIV being a multi-platform title, being widespread, and having a pretty solid reception, it's not hard to see Niko slip by for second. Still, Kefka's not completely without strength. He did well enough with Cloud in the poll against Marcus Fenix and Ocelot, but he's going to need more than 13% if he wants a chance here. He's going to have to take a nice percentage for himself, against competition that's around his level, if not a little higher. That's a tall order for someone like Kefka, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if he pulled it off, especially with an unknown like Niko. But better to trust in the unknown whose potential is higher than the known's ceiling. The Duke? Get him outta here. Prediction: Marth - 32% ; Niko - 28% ; Kefka - 25% ; Duke - 15% Bracket: Marth > Niko Vote: Niko Yoblazer’s Analysis Hey guys! Welcome to prediction hell! Of the three or so Round 1 matches not to feature and inanimate object, this has been the most debated, and it's not hard to see why. We have four distinct characters, all of whom, at first glance, seem to be relatively equal in strength. Something this wide open is bound to attract a wealth of different arguments and predictions. So... Duke Nukem, Kefka, Marth, and Niko Bellic. Who'll move on? Who'll pack it up? Let's take a look. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:29:34 PM | message detail |
| Despite the wide open nature of this match, Marth
has emerged as the first place favorite, and with good reason. He's the
only Nintendo option we've got, and unlike some previous fatasses in
biker gear, he'll actually manage to be a somewhat appealing, likable
option for the Nintendo faithful. Marth is still a largely unknown
quantity, having only competed in one match before (in this
uninformative format, no less). That match, however, left people
impressed. The Fire Emblem star (yep, that's what brought him here,
alright!) managed a respectable 20.65% against a very powerful Kratos
and a stronger Nintendo option in Donkey Kong, a guy many predictors
thought would SFF Marth. Granted, DK is known more for his shortcomings
than his successes, but for Marth to stand firm against a very familiar
Nintendo face with nothing more than a sword and SSBM is impressive.
This poll has no entrants as strong as Kratos or DK, so I can imagine
Marth bulking up some serious percentage on his prior performance.
Tough match for sure, but I'd still be pretty surprised if Marth didn't
win. The battle for second place is even more complicated. While most of us have little faith in Duke Nukem challenging to place, the debates for Final Fantasy VI's Kefka and Grand Theft Auto IV's Niko have been very heated. I'm a Kefka supporter. While it may seem crazy to trust a character who twice lost to Marcus Fenix last year (after all, many would assume that GTAIV's main would be even stronger than Gears of War's main), I think Kefka can make something happen. Hindsight is 20/20, but Kefka was put in an awful situation last year. Accompanying him and Marcus were two very weak characters (one of which was from an RPG - just sayin!), which immediately thrust the two foes into the spotlight. Marcus stuck out as the only casual option, a cool looking main character from a very popular Xbox shooter. Kefka stood out... as lettuce. Again. He got lettuce'D again. In a match where he and Fenix were pulling in 70% of the vote between them, it simply wasn't happening for ol' Kefka. He just wasn't broadly appealing enough. This time, however, he is among much more evenly matched competition. If Marth makes a dash for 30%+, even an unspectacular 25% can secure a second round spot, and that's something Kefka and his hardcore fanbase can manage. Luckily, he's the only RPG character in the poll and no I'm not going to count SMASHFEAR Marth so don't even bring it up. And hopefully, we won't have to serve him up as a ****ing salad for the fourteenth year in a row (why did I bet against lettuce dammit I know he's gonna get lettuce). Being an unknown from a very high selling mega-game, Niko Bellic certainly has a greater maximum potential than Kefka, but I have real doubts about this guy pulling through. For starters, Niko will have to rely on casual support much more than Marth or Kefka, who each have their own devoted niches. Unfortunately for him, casual support is how Duke Nukem, the fourth member of this odd quartet, makes his living. While the other three dudes are likely strong enough to fizzle Duke's chances, whatever casual support he does drum up will almost certainly hurt Niko the most. Watching Tommy Vercetti sputter through with his worst ever contest performance last year doesn't give me any additional hope for Niko, either. Seriously, Master Chief or not, Tommy ****ing stunk it up in an inexcusable way. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:29:55 PM | message detail |
| Another point I have heard brought up only
sparingly is Niko's game, GTAIV, and the fact that it's just sorta...
disappeared. It certainly sold well, but where the heck is it now?
Never since 2001 has a main GTA game faded from the gaming community's
eyes so quickly. GTA games are supposed to stay popular and talked
about for months. Years. For a period of over five years,
a Grand Theft Auto game always occupied a spot in the GameFAQs Top 10
Games list. Well, IV certainly dropped that ball. Where is it as I
write this analysis? It's in 26th place. Twenty-sixth place for a GTA
game a few months after release is unacceptable. The game's message
boards are comparatively dead, too. What happened? That, more than
anything, makes me feel very uneasy about Niko's chances. His game was
supposed to be the biggest "real game" of this generation, and people
just stopped caring. Not a good sign. Overall, while I'm feeling pretty good about my predictions, I expect some sweet sweet lettuce for this one wait did I say lettuce I meant CHAOS ****ing Kefka, he's gonna get lettuce I swear Marth - 30% Kefka - 26% Niko Bellic - 24% Duke Nukem - 20% Lopen’s Analysis People have every combination in this match, I think... but I think it's a bit easier than it seems. A bit of the old fashioned divide and conquer will clear this up. First... the Duke, boy. Some crazy people think The Duke has a chance in this match. Let me tell you as someone who correctly called him last year... DUKEFEAR is likely a symptom of The Duke and his balls of steel owning up on fools' brackets last year. This fourpack is a league above what The Duke limped by last year. And most importantly, The Duke's opponents have widespread recognizability on their side, unlike those jokers The Duke was with last year. Second... Jade Curt-- whoops, he's really dead this time amazing. Niko Bellic. This guy is the star of GTA4 whoamigosh instant win right? Yeah, well it's a shame GTA isn't very good in these things. GTA's illustrious contest history includes: Well, I'll spare you the history lesson but it includes a lot of choking and disappointment. And hey, remember last year when Vercetti got his head kicked in by Master Chief, going almost to PaRappa levels? Ha ha ha oh man GAMEFUEL THEFT AUTO. ... ... okay that was terrible. Point is I don't think GTA is the friend of this format if anything resembling mainstream is there (hello Marth), and honestly given its history even if it's not this is probably a tough match for Niko... he's not likely to be significantly stronger than these guys, if he is stronger at all. I'll not bother with him, but the potential is there. So now... now we're left with Marth vs Kefka. Given Kefka's history of choking, I'm almost inclined to bet against him on that alone. But hey, there's more than that. Marth didn't look bad at all last year. Against DK, Kratos, and the Prince of all Cosmos he got about 20%. Really... put Kefka in there and he probably only does a little better than Marth did (using the spiffy estimator on GameFAQsContests suggests this too)... and this is not even considering any SFF between DK and Marth throwing him down. Marth is probably just stronger than Kefka, methinks. Unless, of course, we get Angel Kefka for round 1... in which case, you won't even see this paragraph, replaced with a new one strongly endorsing his almighty power. Lopen's Prediction: Marth - 30.02% Kefka - 27.12% Duke Nukem - 22.13% Niko Bellic - 20.73% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:30:34 PM | message detail |
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Transience’s Analysis oh god, hardest match to call of the first round -- and in a way, the contest. the worst part is that there are two characters that, if they get past round 1, they could go to round 4 without too much trouble. I'll preface this by saying that there's no right and wrong answer here and that anyone could finish anywhere. now then.. Duke Nukem oh, Duke. I just don't know what to think of you. you're kind of like a joke character - your game never comes out, your pictures are utterly ludicrous, and your quotes.. oh god, your quotes. I see Duke Nukem as being the kind of guy who gets votes because no one cares about his competition. they're like "who the hell are these guys.. oh, Duke Nukem. I'll vote for him, I guess." seeing as how Duke's got a loved Square character, a well-liked character from GameFAQs' game of the generation, and the most popular new character from 2008, I question how he's going to get a significant number of votes. Duke's impressed me before, though, so I won't put it past him if it does happen. too bad his XBLA port doesn't come out til Wednesday. Kefka oh, Kefka. I want to have faith in you. you've got a real fanbase behind you, and I know you're going to start out with the lead because the beginning of the poll's voters (and brackets) love you. despite having Cloud in the poll, you still managed to take a lead on Ocelot and Fenix. people really like you and you seem like you should be right up GameFAQs' alley, but.. you're not. you've got the worst day vote this side of a joke character, and your picture is most likely going to be hideous compared to your brethren. (update: holy WHAT) the thing that bugs me about Kefka is that, if he makes it through round 1, he's probably looking at skating thanks to two Nintendo characters in the poll, and then he'd have a sprite in round 3. he could conceivably go to round 4 but round 1 is his hardest match, somehow. ultimately, when I think about Kefka, I think about how he got *slaughtered* in the daytime by Marcus Fenix. it's tough for me to see Niko losing to Marcus Fenix. Marth there's an easy comparison to be made with Duke and Marth: Duke barely beat Ike, who had yet to be in a Smash Bros. game. Marth is in both Melee and Brawl, is liked, is the only Nintendo character in the poll and put up a pretty good performance against a Nintendo icon. 20% against Kratos and Donkey Kong is better than anyone else in this fourpack has shown, and he's got Brawl now. from a logical standpoint, it's tough to pick against him. Niko oh man, you're a wildcard. your game was hot, getting rave reviews and is the single best selling game of this generation. you were all over TV and the internet for weeks before and after the game came out. on the flipside, you've kinda faded into the background a bit as people got over your game. your predecessors lost to Ness and nearly lost to Kefka. everyone seems to argue Vercetti as being stronger than you, though I'm not really sure why. I think Niko will do fine - he won't bomb, but he won't set the world on fire. but he doesn't have to in order to take this fourpack. now then, I think Marth is a safe pick for the reasons stated above. I just trust Nintendo's guys to come through a lot more than I do old Square, old PC or a GTA character. I think he'll win comfortably on that merit. for second, I've got Niko. I think Kefka's a really fun pick, but when I think about the lettuce I can't help but be extremely skeptical. between not trusting Duke and not trusting Kefka, I've gotta roll the dice with Niko. he scares the hell out of me in upcoming matches. one pick that was eating at me on the last day of brackets was Niko to round 4. I really like it but didn't pull the trigger on it because of the chance of him being out in round 1. so I picked Shadow instead LOL |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:31:06 PM | message detail |
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lettuce? can't pick that. Duke Nukem? not enough gum. Niko? the least worst. transience's prediction: Marth with 30.95%, Niko with 28.88%, Kefka with 23.24%, Duke with 16.93% Ngamer’s Analysis Oh wow... Wario and Zack I could have seen going either way, but I was so confident in Shadow that I nearly called that result a lock in my Impressions topic a week back or so. Quite the surprise, and it leaves the Crew 0 for 2 heading into... the most unpredictable poll of the entire first round! Uh oh! This four pack is just a mess no matter which way you look at it. Let's try to make at least some sense of this probable disaster by reviewing some base stats. Last Known Values Marth - 17.12% (2007) Kefka - 19.07% (2007) Duke - 20.87% (2007) Niko - unknown Poor Marth got the short end of the stick- he got stuck in a match with Donkey Kong, and those two hurt each other pretty badly while allowing Kratos to scamper off to an undeserved blowout. I give Marth the benefit of the doubt in this pack because he at least showed us something- after trailing big early, he made a huge SSB-fueled after school comeback and beat DK outright for a few hours. Yeah it was just DK, but even so, I wouldn't pick anyone else in this group to be able to do the same. Kefka's 19 is probably just about accurate. After a great start he had one of the worst collapses ever against Marcus Fenix to throw that match away with the ASV. But, we know he's going to do well in the early going, we know Square has been looking great so far this year, and does Niko really have the kind of mini-Master Chieft ASV potential that Marcus showed us? Speaking of Niko, he's of course a first-timer without a Contest history, so let's assign him the 16.25% that Vercetti earned last year in R1. Probably Tommy got casual-SFFed somewhat by MC and deserves higher, but on the other hand, why would anyone believe Niko is even in Tommy's league, SFFed or not? I remember when GTA3 became the big thing years back and shot to the top of the FAQ charts. Then VC was launched, and it was almost always the #1 FAQ page on the site for a year and a half. Then SA came out, exact same thing. GTA4 did the same... for a couple months, but look where it sits now. 26th place. Scroll a little further down the list and... there's GTA:SA, in 33rd. It's September 2008, and yet there are nearly as many people playing and needing help with the GTA game that launched in 2004 as there are for the one from earlier this year. Sorry, but if that isn't the definition of a lack of staying power I don't know what is! And then there's Duke. I've got to admit that with the rest of this group so up in the air, I gave serious thought to picking him for second if he was going to get his Duke Milk'em picture. As is though, he pulled down a value of around 21 in that opening match, which is probably about accurate. But then he completely collapsed as soon as decent competition arrived in R2. The rest of this group isn't exactly "decent", but they're at least a step up from what he saw in '07, so I can't see him picking up those "meh at least I recognize this guy" votes he used back then. In summary, Duke seems like a reliable choice for around 20% but not much more, Marth seems a reliable choice to ride the SSB ASV to around 30, Kefka seems reliable to hang with Marth or lead outright early before collapsing back to the mid 20s during the Day, and Niko... is totally unreliable, and could do anything from jobbing horribly into the teens to giving Marth a serious run. But when I throw my best guesstimates into the pot, here's what I come up with for these guys: Marth - 32.74% Kefka - 24.18% Niko Bellic - 22.08% Duke Nukem - 21.00% I don't like it, but with Niko involved I probably wouldn't like anything! Ng Says: Marth > Kefka |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/19/2008 8:31:50 PM | message detail |
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Guest’s Analysis - Leonhart Duke Nukem The Duke is back in another heavily debated first round match. That’s just how he likes it, I suppose. He managed to win his match last year due to the sheer obscurity of his fourpack, but he won’t be quite so lucky last year. As his second round match proved, I think Duke will suffer when he’s facing characters people actually know. He’s facing a FF lead villain, a Smash character, and the main character of GTA IV, so there are some characters people actually know. Still, I won’t count him out because this match is all kinds of messed up, but I think last place is the most likely finish for Mr. Nukem. Kefka The Character Battle’s perennial underperformer, Kefka is once again put into a favorable position. He had a good shot to win his first round match last year, but he got destroyed by Marcus Fenix’s day vote and didn’t fare too well in his second round match either (though Cloud was there). I personally have a hard time putting my trust in Kefka to do anything because he’s done basically nothing but disappoint his entire contest career. He could win this match outright, or he could bomb yet again. In my opinion, the latter is most likely. Marth Now Marth gets a chance to show us what he can really do. Free from Nintendo LFF and fresh off of Brawl, he’s put into a position to do some damage. He did decently last year even with DK in the poll, and with the site in a Brawl frenzy, Marth will be looking to capitalize on it. While there are many viable solutions to this first round mess, none of them (in my opinion) involve Marth failing to advance. He’s the one you have to worry the least about. Each of the other three have good reason to worry about bombing. For that reason alone, I’d say your best bet is to have Marth winning. At worst, he gets second place. Niko Bellic Ah, the main character of the newest Grand Theft Auto game makes his debut. Just like the Duke and Kefka, he generates his fair share of doubt. Carl Johnson bombed against Ness (another character who gets the majority of his strength from Smash Bros.), Vercetti’s strength was continually slipping, and it seems like GTA’s overall popular has been slipping as well. Still, I think Niko has reason enough to do well. CJ had some obvious problems, and at Vice City’s peak, Vercetti would’ve had no problem advancing. Niko is considered very likeable, and so I think he can do well here. His potential strength is the highest of the four, in my personal opinion, but he has massive bombing potential as well. Smash Overestimation Here? Clowns Are Hopeful Though Ousted Again Duke Nukem – 20.12% Kefka – 25.44% Marth – 27.33% Niko Bellic – 27.11% Crew Consensus: The Crew was split 3-3 between Niko and Kefka for second, but with the Guest, we officially go with Marth > Niko! |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 8:32:27 PM | message detail |
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hmm --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 8:38:44 PM | message detail |
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You know, one thing I've learned from making so many character pics is that B8 will complain about anything. Take yesterday's Zidane pic, for example. I had someone tell me it was the worst photoshop ever, then another person tell me it was 'too good' and guaranteed Zidane a win. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:40:24 PM | message detail |
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Looks like Marth doesn't place and Duke gets first! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/19/2008 8:40:42 PM | message detail |
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I was just looking at the guru site, and my bracket only has 9 risks. wtf? I had no idea it was so cookie cutter. I'm disappointed now. |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:40:59 PM | message detail |
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KamikazePotato (#487) Be glad you didn't make the Kefka pic! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 8:42:07 PM | message detail |
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Where is everybody, anyway? There were more people here for the last match, and that was way less debated. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:43:57 PM | message detail |
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They'll start packing in here once Duke starts running away with this match! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| XxSoulxX | Posted 9/19/2008 8:44:11 PM | message detail |
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Can the crew go 0-3! No Duke picks, so it's going to happen! --- Good Times, Great Memories |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/19/2008 8:45:55 PM | message detail |
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Speaking of the Guru Contest, we'll be down to six perfect Gurus after two matches. This ain't no series contest. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:48:11 PM | message detail |
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PartOfYourWorld (#494) Best contest ever! --- SNES Reviews - http://mega64.20ehost.com/ "[Wylvane]'s the type of guy we probably need more of around here to keep the place interesting." ~Smurf |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:48:54 PM | message detail |
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So, Guru is wide open so far? --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| yoshifan823 | Posted 9/19/2008 8:49:19 PM | message detail |
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T-Minus 10 'till Marth>Niko. --- Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Guru winnah Explicit Content, that's quis. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/19/2008 8:49:26 PM | message detail |
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Well the people who had Shadow to the quarterfinals may struggle a little. >_> --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| transience | Posted 9/19/2008 8:50:21 PM | message detail |
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whoops --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 9/19/2008 8:50:28 PM | message detail |
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dammit furries --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
