GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 566
| Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2008 7:47:25 AM | message detail |
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Zack might be the favorite over Shadow, but he still won't beat Kefka! ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/18/2008 7:48:55 AM | message detail |
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It's the BHCF at work! Also, I wouldn't take Kefka to do this well here. If Zack and Kefka meet, Zack's gonna beat him. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| Xcarvenger | Posted 9/18/2008 7:49:12 AM | message detail |
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lol chokefka the choker --- Xcarvenger: http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/9123/chocobo34kg4.jpg For all your board 8 needs: www.board8.wikia.com |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/18/2008 7:52:58 AM | message detail |
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Tag. Yeah, Kefka is so screwed. --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/18/2008 7:55:34 AM | message detail |
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Link is just A BLOND-HAIRED LUKE fon FABRE --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 8:32:19 AM | message detail |
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From the last topic about Fox/DK: I would take Fox over DK -- I figure
he's both naturally stronger and doesn't get phased by SFF so easily.
DK was destroyed by Mario before his big Mario-boost in 2k5 nearly as
bad as Ness was in 2k5, plus he looked like he failed to SFF Marth much
and was easily dismantled by Kirby. Fox has SFF'd Pikachu, pre-SSBB MK,
and pre-SSBB Wario before (and I think he would still SFF MK/Wario this
year). Though he did get destroyed by Mario last year, Sephiroth was
also in the poll and it was the sprite round. He was also destroyed by
Link in 2k3, but he still did almost as well against Link as DK against
Mario. The SSB-fanbase will definitely side with Fox and I assume SF64
is stronger than any game DK has his name on. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| SFF_potential | Posted 9/18/2008 8:32:44 AM | message detail |
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but Zack doesn't have to beat Kefka, because Kefka has no chance of getting out of the first round --- Character Battle 7 Currently on 0/0 Points Next match: Wario>Zack Fair |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2008 8:33:18 AM | message detail |
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if you're impressed now, don't bother picking your jaw up off the floor because shadow will impress you even more tomorrow! --- Moltar Status: =D Cecil/Jade/Wario/Zack - Bracket: Wario > Zack - Vote: Wario (0/0) |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/18/2008 8:34:10 AM | message detail |
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Chaos Control more like Damage Control --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/18/2008 8:34:22 AM | message detail |
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about what i said about peach doubling: ignore that. i thought peach was the one that faced sheena. >_>;; regardless i dont find it impossible for Wario to blow out somebody though. --- *is Dranze* Bracket: Wario > Zack | Vote: Wario |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 8:35:00 AM | message detail |
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Also, I'd like to make a motion. Since this is the third topic that's
touched on today's match, is there any way we can make it a pretty
regular thing to semi-sorta-summarize the last topic's highlights in
the opening post or one of the first posts of each topic? I don't want
to search for what's worthwhile in five topics once
Duke/Kefka/Marth/Niko hits..... --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/18/2008 8:39:59 AM | message detail |
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I hope Shadow impresses me by performing worse than I ever could've imagined! --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/18/2008 8:44:21 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| transience | Posted 9/18/2008 9:01:28 AM | message detail |
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hmm.. Zack seemed to do all right with the morning vote. he certainly
won't bomb after what we saw overnight. he might have Tifa trends
though. good show by Zack. time to see what Shadow can do tomorrow. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| transience | Posted 9/18/2008 9:02:53 AM | message detail |
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but again, this poll is apathy central. we still don't know how Zack
will hold up when Link is in the poll, so even if we think Zack is a
lock I wouldn't put it past the voters to abandon a cameo appearance
and a PSP game for the master sword - especially since we're doing face
pictures. http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm218/16mermaids/olderzackcloseupuy2.png --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2008 9:03:30 AM | message detail |
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I still don't understand where the confidence in Shadow > Zack comes
from. Really, what has Shadow done since that match with Mario? Seems
as though all the impressive 2k3 performers wound up being total
frauds. Magus, Tidus and now Shadow. --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1 |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2008 9:06:04 AM | message detail |
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uh nobody thinks shadow is as strong as 2003 showed. but even what he
did last year is better than what wario would do. it basically depends
on who holds up better against link. --- DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716 |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 9:06:45 AM | message detail |
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I would still take Magus and Tidus over Zack right now, too. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/18/2008 9:07:07 AM | message detail |
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Shadow might surprise people tomorrow- by losing to Zidane. Shadow failed to break 14% against Auron, Ryu, and Bowser. Cloud then put up over 49% against Auron, Ryu, and Marcus- Marcus is weaker than Bowser, but the gap is not nearly so much in this format as it is normally, and Link is stronger than Cloud. I'd guess Link would get around 50% in a 4-pack with Auron, Ryu, and Bowser- if not, he'd at least get close. Add on Zidane and Luke, and Shadow should get pressed below 14% tomorrow. If he was hurt by SFF from Bowser, this doesn't help him- any SFF will only be worse coming from Link. One advantage Shadow does have here is that he's not the weakest character in the poll and won't suffer Last Place Factor, but still, I think 13-14% is his max, and he may very well score lower. Whether or not that is enough to beat Zidane is another question, but I think Link may get in the vicinity of 70% tomorrow, with neither Shadow nor Zidane breaking 14% and Luke probably well under 5%. Comparing it with Link's first round match last year, Luke is probably weaker than Agent J, Shadow is considerably stronger than Edgeworth, and Zidane is considerably weaker than Bidoof in this format, at least when up against strong competition. --- Character Battle VII --- Score: 4/4 --- T-1 Bracket: Zack > Wario --- Vote: Zack |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 9:14:48 AM | message detail |
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| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:16:51 AM | message detail |
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Link getting 70%? nah. he could barely get it with Miles Edgeworth and Agent J. 60s at best. --- *is Dranze* Bracket: Wario > Zack | Vote: Wario |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 9:17:03 AM | message detail |
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13.94% against Auron/Ryu/Bowser still looks better to me than 19.01%
against Liquid/Alucard/Ness, considering Ryu/Bowser would handily beat
Liquid/Alucard and Auron has gotten ~65% on Ness before KH2 came out.
It's not like Shadow will blow Zidane out of the water and there's a
chance Link could hurt Shadow, but ultimately I like the hedgehog's
chances. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/18/2008 9:18:29 AM | message detail |
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Zack is still gaining slowly in percentage, even with the day vote. This is crazy --- Score: 0/0 Today's Pick: Zack Fair > Wario Vote for Arthas Menethil in Character Battle VII!! |
| transience | Posted 9/18/2008 9:20:41 AM | message detail |
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this ain't the day vote --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| JaKyL25 | Posted 9/18/2008 9:20:43 AM | message detail |
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The ASV will tell this tale, but does anyone else think that if Zack
does have a decent one that by the end of the poll he'll have more
votes than Wario and Cecil combined? --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. Even though I was the Fall 2k6 Contest Winner, I pale in comparison to Explicit Content! |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2008 9:22:38 AM | message detail |
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not a chance in hell --- DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow Brawl FC: 0344-9611-6716 |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 9:24:52 AM | message detail |
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I can't see Zack gaining another 3.5% while Cecil/Wario collectively
drop 3.5% (or some other similar variation). I figure Zack's going to
become stable, Wario rises some, and the other two drop a little with
the ASV. Still, there's not going to be a 5%-swing from this point on,
much less 7% in favor of Zack against Wario/Cecil. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/18/2008 9:29:52 AM | message detail |
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I think Shadow can end up a bit better than his swan song last year
(maybe a percentage point or two), but I'd be shocked to see him
approach the high teens. I have him pegged at 16% right now, and I may
lower that depending on how many Legend of Zelda songs I listen to
before the match starts. --- Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/18/2008 9:31:53 AM | message detail |
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I'd be surprised to see Shadow receive anything under 19%. --- A surveillance camera!? http://img.imgcake.com//lastcalvin&hobbes.jpg |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/18/2008 9:33:56 AM | message detail |
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Nah, I don't expect to see Link breaching the 70% mark. I have him in
the low 60s personally, and I might be undershooting him a bit,
especially with someone like Luke in the poll. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2008 9:47:04 AM | message detail |
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The only thing that gives me pause on underestimating Link is due to
Bidoof's possible static fanbase having an effect on him. With three
"normal" characters in the poll, I wouldn't be shocked by a relative
overperformance on Link's part. --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| transience | Posted 9/18/2008 9:48:28 AM | message detail |
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I think that's more than offset by replacing Agent J with Shadow. --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2008 9:49:58 AM | message detail |
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You and I both know at this point my respect for Shadow is only marginally more than Agent J's! --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| transience | Posted 9/18/2008 9:50:23 AM | message detail |
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I'm well aware! Shadow for 30% believe --- xyzzy "Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2008 9:51:28 AM | message detail |
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It will only make for a fatter cow to slaughter upon the Altar of Zachary --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| Crimson Dragoon | Posted 9/18/2008 9:55:24 AM | message detail |
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I think SD just got suspended for posting in every single Zack topic on the board. ;;>_> --- ~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:57:38 AM | message detail |
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so would luke be more popular than Jade or less? --- *is Dranze* Bracket: Wario > Zack | Vote: Wario |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/18/2008 9:59:09 AM | message detail |
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oh btw can someone supply hourly updates? ... or a way to do them just by copy/pasting? i'm not using this calculator all day dammit. >_> --- *is Dranze* Bracket: Wario > Zack | Vote: Wario |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 10:00:56 AM | message detail |
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So, Zack's currently got 61.89% on post-SSBB Wario just by their votes,
and that's not assuming Cecil is hurting Zack at all. Shadow got 64.9%
on pre-SSBB Wario in 2k3, and this is assuming the Sonic crew isn't
hurt by this new format. Shadow's in for a fight. He better hope a sword-less pic of Zack and having Link take away apathy votes will hurt him a lot..... --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/18/2008 10:01:46 AM | message detail |
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I think SD just got suspended for posting in every single Zack topic on the board. ;;>_> A better man than you or I --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2008 10:02:35 AM | message detail |
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Jade is definitely the fan favourite from his game, but Luke is the
main character. So I guess it depends. Either way, Luke's going to get
crushed tomorrow. Time | Cecil . . . | Jade . . . | Wario . | Zack 01:00 | 18.48% | 06.72% | 33.23% | 41.57% 02:00 | 18.00% | 06.47% | 31.74% | 43.79% 03:00 | 17.65% | 05.40% | 30.70% | 46.25% 04:00 | 16.75% | 06.34% | 30.80% | 46.11% 05:00 | 16.35% | 05.43% | 30.99% | 47.24% 06:00 | 15.81% | 05.76% | 35.54% | 42.89% 07:00 | 14.85% | 06.10% | 34.69% | 44.36% 08:00 | 16.56% | 05.97% | 35.60% | 41.87% 09:00 | 16.67% | 06.40% | 34.16% | 42.76% 10:00 | 17.20% | 05.54% | 32.83% | 44.43% 11:00 | 16.81% | 06.07% | 33.36% | 43.76% 12:00 | 16.32% | 05.50% | 32.27% | 45.91% --- Mustache...and green... |
| Yesmar | Posted 9/18/2008 10:17:46 AM | message detail |
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I think that Shadow's performance on Auron last year is being very
underrated. He did better on Auron than Tails, Ness, Scorpion, and
Alucard all have, and what he pulled off in that first match still
gives him the ranking of a solid midcarder. That being said, I still think he will lose, but that's because Zack's performance here is very impressive, not because Shadow looked laughably weak last year or anything. --- You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/18/2008 10:26:06 AM | message detail |
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RPGuy, can you show me how that's done again? --- *is Dranze* Bracket: Wario > Zack | Vote: Wario |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 10:37:28 AM | message detail |
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I got the math entirely wrong on my last post, let me try this again: Zack's currently got 56.81% on post-SSBB Wario just by their votes, and that's not assuming Cecil is hurting Zack at all. Shadow got 64.9% on pre-SSBB Wario in 2k3, and this is assuming the Sonic crew isn't hurt by this new format. Shadow's still in for a fight. A sword-less pic of Zack and having Link take away apathy votes will help Shadow's case a lot, but this could get interesting. He's just gotta hope Link doesn't hurt him now, and we should see if that happens tomorrow. --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2008 10:40:38 AM | message detail |
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RPGuy, can you show me how that's done again? people.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Contest4Way.ods If I wasn't so lazy, I'd make this into a website. Maybe someone can convince NGamer or cn to do that. --- Mustache...and green... |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/18/2008 10:44:04 AM | message detail |
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XD why on EARTH would SD get suspended for that --- Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd | Where there are RKOs St. Louis Rams (0-2) Next Game: @SEA | There will always be ExThaNemesis |
| H__RR____H | Posted 9/18/2008 10:46:09 AM | message detail |
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zackgetsyouwarnedFAQs.com --- Lobby Hero http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3079/lobbyheroauditionflyerssv6.jpg |
| WishFulfillment | Posted 9/18/2008 10:55:38 AM | message detail |
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same reason I got axed for asking why nerds feel the need to be
offended by pre-sigs. once I was suspended for my post I was sure it
was going to be reduced to a warning at most when it got reviewed...
instead I got axed. moderation staff has a rather large beetle up their
collective bums I'd assume. --- wish fulfillment every day |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/18/2008 11:00:08 AM | message detail |
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moderation staff has a rather large beetle up their collective bums I'd assume. b7 --- Score: 0/0 Today's Pick: Zack Fair > Wario Vote for Arthas Menethil in Character Battle VII!! |
| KronicYouth | Posted 9/18/2008 11:00:58 AM | message detail |
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wouldnt be surprised at this point --- can you dig it? |
