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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 564

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2008 6:21:00 PM | message detail
wait better example: some GTA game over FFVI.

okay there.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:21:21 PM | message detail

trannyscience (#338)
we're in the eleventh hour and we're debating Midna vs. Axel Steel

awwwww yeah



This.
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i am false
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:21:30 PM | message detail
And you're saying Guitar Hero is not popular here? Hold on while I look for some polls
trannyscience | Posted 9/17/2008 6:22:03 PM | message detail
anything is possible when 15% means you're going to take second place

but, like, why would you fight over with such hostility? it's friggin' Axel Steel vs. Midna vs. Miles Edgeworth
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
satai_delenn | Posted 9/17/2008 6:22:08 PM | message detail
You know, this gives me a great idea for next CB's joke rally. GH guitar go go go! >_>
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Attention, all yoctograms! (It's x2) DIE!
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:22:56 PM | message detail
I think Balthier proves that being from a popular game from a major series doesn't mean a damn if in your game characters don't mean a damn. At least Legend of Zelda PRETENDS Midna actually has meaning. >_>
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i am false
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/17/2008 6:23:15 PM | message detail
I think it has to do with no one liking Black Turtle.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:23:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2990

Not much, but still. Decent numbers against strong competition, especially considering Rock Band was also in there and had just came out shortly before that poll.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/17/2008 6:23:49 PM | message detail
I think Balthier proves that being from a popular game from a major series doesn't mean a damn if in your game characters don't mean a damn. At least Legend of Zelda PRETENDS Midna actually has meaning. >_>

Again I agree with War. He's using common sense.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
trannyscience | Posted 9/17/2008 6:24:08 PM | message detail
well when you insult everyone and everything while arguing your point, you're going to get people arguing against the person instead of the idea.

the stats topic needs to learn not to do this and just ignore the argument altogether.
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xyzzy
http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:24:56 PM | message detail
And Midna "having meaning" definitely helped her last year.

Kuja "having meaning" definitely helped him in 2005.

Link and Cloud "having meaning" definitely helped them against L-Block
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2008 6:25:57 PM | message detail
you honestly think any GH game can touch Brawl?
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:26:10 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#361)
And Midna "having meaning" definitely helped her last year.

Kuja "having meaning" definitely helped him in 2005.

Link and Cloud "having meaning" definitely helped them against L-Block



Midna having meaning helped her be beyond fodder.

Final Fantasy IX is NOT popular on GameFAQS. Not by a long shot.

...Did you just compare Axel Steel to L-Block? >_>
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i am false
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:26:19 PM | message detail
Balthier sucking was more a result of FF12 being terribly recieved. Balthier was a great character, and if he was in any other Final Fantasy he would be Auron levels. For some reason, the gaming public didn't like that great game, and would prefer to play useless crap like Final Fantasy 10.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:27:07 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar
Posted 9/17/2008 9:25:57 PM
message detail
#362 you honestly think any GH game can touch Brawl?


No, but I'd take GH3 over Melee, which is the only thing relevant to this discussion considering Brawl wasn't out 3 years ago when Hand beat Kuja.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:27:21 PM | message detail
Didn't FFXII come in second place in the GotY polls, including giving Okami (hi there Ammy, you have meaning in your game!) a killing? >_>
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i am false
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/17/2008 6:27:35 PM | message detail
Welp that does it
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2008 6:27:35 PM | message detail
GH3 over Melee,

LMFAO
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2008 6:28:23 PM | message detail
Balthier sucking was more a result of FF12 being terribly recieved. Balthier was a great character, and if he was in any other Final Fantasy he would be Auron levels. For some reason, the gaming public didn't like that great game, and would prefer to play useless crap like Final Fantasy 10.

A slightly smaller chuckle at this one
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:28:45 PM | message detail
Why not? They sold just as much, but GH's multiplatform nature gives it a much broader fanbase to draw from, as opposed to just Nintendo owners.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/17/2008 6:29:55 PM | message detail
Balthier had a weak fourpack. The only one who stood out was Ada, who Samus stomped in 2k6.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 6:31:36 PM | message detail
Keep in mind the GotY FF12 won was literally weeks after the game came out. More recent games always do better in those polls relative to their actual strengths. Have another round of 2007 GotY polls now and I guarentee Bioshock and Rock Band don't do nearly as well.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:33:21 PM | message detail

BlAcK TuRtLe (#372)
Keep in mind the GotY FF12 won was literally weeks after the game came out. More recent games always do better in those polls relative to their actual strengths. Have another round of 2007 GotY polls now and I guarentee Bioshock and Rock Band don't do nearly as well.



That doesn't change "FFXII loving murdered Okami, yet Balthier jobbed to sub-fodder and a wolf."

...At all. >_>
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i am false
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/17/2008 6:33:43 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2008 6:34:07 PM | message detail
Why not? They sold just as much, but GH's multiplatform nature gives it a much broader fanbase to draw from, as opposed to just Nintendo owners.

Do you not remember Melee's performance in 2004? Do you not remember how ridiculous Smash Bros fans are? Do you not remember how, regardless of how much the 360 has doing so well lately, just how big of a chunk Nintendo fans represent GameFAQs? Do you not remember anything logical?
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:34:08 PM | message detail
I STILL BELIEVE IN YOU, CECIL!
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i am false
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2008 6:34:33 PM | message detail
zack fair

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let's mosey
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2008 6:34:48 PM | message detail
In other news, decent match pic is decent
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/17/2008 6:34:55 PM | message detail
I will cut you.
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i am false
Gaddswell | Posted 9/17/2008 6:36:40 PM | message detail
In that Axel Steel match, I actually think Edgeworth has a chance at beating him there. No more doof to drain the PW rally, and from what I gather, he does nothing in his games.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2008 6:37:18 PM | message detail
No, but I'd take GH3 over Melee

argument over.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/17/2008 6:38:17 PM | message detail
GH3 over Melee

Failure.
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Isaac and Princess Kumatora for SSB4! SSBB Mains: Zelda, Peach, Lucas, Ness
Now we must duel, like two gleaming banjos on a moonlit stoop! -Dimentio, SPM
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2008 6:42:46 PM | message detail
No, but I'd take GH3 over Melee

Buster Sword
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
Claude Rena | Posted 9/17/2008 6:55:32 PM | message detail
quick guys, Vincent/Falco/Scorpion/Gordon.

Vincent > who?
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let's do it
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/17/2008 7:02:23 PM | message detail
Vincent > Falco, but I believe most people see Falco as the underdog. He's not stronger than Scorpion 1v1, but with his being the only Nintendo character and with Vincent possibly absorbing Scorpion's badass support like a sponge, I think he has a shot.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/17/2008 7:03:10 PM | message detail
Woops, couple minutes late there...
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2008 7:04:33 PM | message detail
You are now manually hating your bracket and any changes you didn't make.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2008 7:05:24 PM | message detail
why oh why didn't I bite on Snake > Link argh
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
staplefish | Posted 9/17/2008 7:05:39 PM | message detail
You are now manually regretting your Zack pick.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2008 7:06:08 PM | message detail
You mean losing to Zidane?

Perfectly logical in every way, I say.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/17/2008 7:06:15 PM | message detail
In that Axel Steel match, I actually think Edgeworth has a chance at beating him there. No more doof to drain the PW rally, and from what I gather, he does nothing in his games.

Yeah, I don't think any of the GH characters have any strength on their own. The game series itself is growing in strength but I don't think it brushes off onto the characters.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 7:24:02 PM | message detail
Round 1

Division 1- Match 1


Cecil Harvey

The Final Fantasy 4 main character returns after suffering a tripling at the hands of Kirby in 2005. Can he redeem himself with Final Fantasy 4 DS under his belt? I don't think so.

Jade Curtiss

lol fails characters

Wario

The literal ass end of Nintendo characters, Wario comes off of a lackluster 2007 performance and hopes to not stink as much this year.

Zack Fair

Hoo boy. Here we have the second biggest wildcard of the contest. Zack is a contest newcomer fresh off the PSP game Final Fantasy 7 Crisis Core and of course his appearances in Final Fantasy 7 itself and Advent Children. Will he be as strong as Vincent? Or as weak as Midgar Zolom? Well, on the plus side, he doesn't have Cloud to deal with.

Analysis:

We have a bit of a doozie here. Jade can be immediately written off as useless given how badly she (as well as the rest of the Fails cast) did last year. Cecil can also be written off, barring some unforseen boost from FF4:DS. Even then, he got tripled by Kirby in 2005, hard to see him coming back from that. That leaves Wario and our wildcard Zack. This match really is a crapshoot. Hell, this whole division is a crapshoot, since the only absolutely certain thing is Link dominating. There are 2 schools of thought on Zack. One that says he's fodder that will be lucky to make it out of round 1, and one that says he's going to be near Vincent levels as a Cloud proxy. Personally, I'd put him somewhere in the middle.

Which fortunately is enough to get him out of this round, and possibly out of the whole division. Wario looked like crap last year, but that could be a result of him just being on the bottom of the SFF food chain. Luckily for him, Zack has Cecil to compete with, so even if Zack winds up being somewhat strong, Wario is pretty much guaranteed first here. Which he should enjoy while it lasts since he's going to get beaten into the ground by Link in round 2.

So this match should be a nice gauge to judge Zack by and nothing more. There is potential for upsets both ways, but I think we've got another boring first match here which has interesting reprecussions for the rest of this division.

TuRtLe's Pick: Warion 37%, Zack 32%, Cecil 23%, Jade 8%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Wario > Zack
TuRtLe's Vote: Cecil
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2008 7:24:45 PM | message detail
Jesus, that's a lot of people not entering this year. That's sad. Say what you will about the fourway format, but as a GameFAQs user for about 8 years, that's really disappointing.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2008 7:46:52 PM | message detail
Aren't the entrant numbers usually this bad? I seem to remember it always being like this.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2008 8:02:21 PM | message detail
BOP results before the contest...

http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls

57 Brackets.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0 Today's Match: Wario > Zack Fair
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/17/2008 8:06:21 PM | message detail
Did anyone dare to advance Liquid Snake in the match against Luigi and Bowser? Heck, did anyone even give it anything more than a passing thought? I know it makes no logical sense (especially considering how Liquid did last year), and the more I think of it, the more logical evidence I find against it. However, I can't shake this feeling that Liquid may pull something amazing out of his ass.

I dunno, maybe a Tetris block or something.
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Yoblazer: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2008 8:10:59 PM | message detail
Yo, I've got Luigi > L Snake for two rounds actually.
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The Straight Up G
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2008 8:11:33 PM | message detail
Match I: Cecil Harvey vs. Jade Curtiss vs. Wario vs. Zack Fair

Information

Name: Cecil Harvey
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy IV
2007 Results: Did not enter

With Final Fantasy IV DS fresh off the shelves Cecil makes his return to the character battle, this year bringing along two more characters. In 2005 Cecil broke the record of suffering the biggest defeat of a Final Fantasy character not including SFF matches by letting Kirby triple him, the old record was Squall’s defeat against Solid Snake all the way back in 2002. The record was only in place for seven matches when Zidane lost to Crono by a bigger margin, whether there was SFF or not is still up for debate.

Name: Jade Curtiss
Game/Series From: Tales of the Abyss
2007 Results: 4th in round 1

It only took me one match to be surprised of the inclusion of a character. Jade failed to score above 10% in the weakest four-pack in 2007. Nothing new has come up for Jade since last contest, yet not one, but two characters from the same game had qualified for the contest. I guess while having only a few fans they must be a dedicated bunch.

Name: Wario
Game/Series From: Mario series, Wario series
2007 Results: 2nd in round 1, 4th in round 2

Wario continues the tradition of having a Nintendo character in the first match, but breaks the tradition of having a strong Nintendo character in the first match. Last year Wario was involved in two Nintendo matches which greatly affected Wario’s performance last year. Wario is one of 28 out of 35 playable Brawl characters to make an appearance in this contest. The seven that didn’t make it were Peach, Pokemon Trainer, ROB, Mr. Game and Watch, Jigglypuff, Wolf and Toon Link. GameFAQs’ most anticipated game of the year is out, but how much contest strength will it translate to for both new and old characters of the series.

Name: Zack Fair
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy Crisis Core
2007 Results: Did not enter

The most talked about new character in the contest, although made an appearance and was talked about in Final Fantasy VII the true reason Zack is in this contest was the starring role in Crisis Core. There seems to be a lot of different opinions of Zack throughout the board being placed anywhere from losing in round 1 to coming out of this division alongside Link. Will FFVII fans come to the aid of a character which a part of the story revolves around or will Zack be left alone with only his PSP title to fend off his opponents.

Analysis:

One thing for certain about this match is that Jade will come in last. I’m not sure how both he and Luke was able to squeeze into this contest, but just like last year even though you have a dedicated fanbase it won’t do you any good if it is tiny. Jade failed to break 10% in a poll where Ada Wong came in first with no competition. However because of his tiny dedicated fanbase and the fact that it becomes harder to drop in percent once you reach a certain point Jade’s percent for this match may not be too far from his last years performance despite the stronger competition in this match.

Cecil appeared in 2005 just months before his GBA remake was released and about two months ago another remake this time for the DS has been released. With the newer generations getting to know and play as Cecil his strength will have increased since his last match; however an increase from a handheld game is usually less than an increase from a console. I don’t see Cecil doing much in this match unless Zack was blown totally out of proportion during the bracket making process, which isn’t as farfetched as you may think if you’ve spent any time in the stats topic.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0 Today's Match: Wario > Zack Fair
charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2008 8:12:22 PM | message detail
Last year Wario didn’t make any heads turn and if anything his performance was a disappointment. Of course Wario was stuck in two three-way Nintendo LFF matches so it’s really hard to gauge him, though his match with pre-Brawl Meta-Knight was pitiful. In my opinion Wario is one of those characters in which many voters are apathetic to and would therefore cause him to lose many of his votes to other Nintendo characters.

This will be the first match in whom we will be testing for any potential Brawl boost for any Nintendo characters and with this being Wario’s first time appearing in a Smash game his boost should be one of the bigger ones. While Brawl didn’t live up to its hype, which was impossible looking at the amount of hype it received it is still a very popular Wii game and it’s owned by a fair amount of GameFAQs users. How much strength it will translate is unknown. Also I should include that Wario isn’t truly the character of choice for most Brawl users, but being the only Nintendo character in this poll Wario will finally get to show his true colours.

While the order of the three characters above are pretty much set in stone we still have to get through the character that everyone is talking about, Zack Fair. With some exceptions such as Pokemon only appearing on a handheld usually does not translate into having much contest strength. However Crisis Core is one of the most popular PSP games right now and Zack has somewhere else to look for some strength, Final Fantasy VII.

Last year the Midgar Zolom rally was actually meant to test the power of the rabid FFVII fanbase who would vote anything FFVII related over anything else. Of course our dreams were dashed when the bracket was released and he was in the same match as Cloud himself. Unexpectedly we now have another chance to see this fanbase at work. Zack is never really seen in the game though he is referred to in many scenes and he has a similar look to as Cloud except he has black hair. If you never played Crisis Core and haven’t played FFVII in years it may be possible that FFVII fans may have forgotten him.

This is where the Buster Sword comes in. The hypothesis in the stats topic is that seeing a picture of Zack and the Buster Sword, which is more or less certain since we are using user submitted pictures will make voters that he must be FFVII related and vote for him. Personally I don’t think that the inclusion of the sword in the picture will cause people to automatically assume that he’s from FFVII. There are many games that include sword wielding characters and the Buster Sword has no unique features that distinguishes itself from other swords other than being really thick, which again is not that uncommon. He may get some votes from his picture if it jogged the voter’s memory though in my opinion that will happen too far in between to make a huge difference.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2008 8:12:44 PM | message detail
With the bracket making period feeling so long I’ve had a long time to think about this match and writing down my thoughts. Though in reality it’s been about the same as other contests, I guess we’re just tired waiting for a contest when we expected a games contest to happen about 6 months ago. Anyways this match comes down to Wario vs. Zack with a small chance of Cecil coming in second if Zack is a total flop. I’m not a huge believer in that the FFVII fanbase will be voting for Zack so that he becomes the favourite at taking second behind Link in this division, although I do believe that FFVII will be helping him along with his PSP game. Wario also has Brawl to work with and this will be the first time we’ll see Wario in action without Nintendo interference since 2003 and the site has changed a lot since then. I think that the board and stats topic has overrated Zack by a lot and while Wario isn’t stiff competition I don’t think Zack has it in him to win.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Wario > Zack

charmander6000’s Prediction: Wario – 37.72%, Zack – 32.17%, Cecil – 22.38%, Jade – 7.73%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB7%20BOP.xls
Character Battle 2008: Points 0/0 Today's Match: Wario > Zack Fair
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