GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 564
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 2:15:13 PM | message detail |
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30:46 woo ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats ~*Ulti and MMX's Contest Site (some offensive language)*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ ~*TRE's poll listing (every poll!)*~ http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html ~*aprosenf's poll script*~ http://web.mit.edu/adamrose/Public/allpolls.txt ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the match pics*~ http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php ~*Acronyms, Percentages For Dummies, and Odd Matches*~ http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm ~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them. X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process. rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. For example, all evidence supports Samus being indirectly stronger than Mario, yet Mario blew Samus away during their 2005 match. That's rSFF in action, and the one case we have of the weaker statistical character winning with it. For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything. |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/16/2008 2:16:01 PM | message detail |
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You can always bet on Duke. --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| MnMZero | Posted 9/16/2008 2:22:28 PM | message detail |
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http://img.imgcake.com/wtfish.jpg I think I'm going to be using this a lot. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/16/2008 2:23:39 PM | message detail |
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oh man so excited =D=D=D --- Arsenal FC 3-0-1 Pts: 9 Pos: 3rd | Where there are RKOs St. Louis Rams (0-2) Next Game: @SEA | There will always be ExThaNemesis |
| jonthomson | Posted 9/16/2008 2:31:06 PM | message detail |
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a huge hint about who the winner will be: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=dQj7_bVkIIA --- Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179 Obama '08 imo |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2008 2:38:19 PM | message detail |
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Cloud > Link > Mario > Sonic This is how the final will be. --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 2:38:24 PM | message detail |
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newcomer http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=nebKYFxXrLY --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2008 2:39:29 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/16/2008 2:40:43 PM | message detail |
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trannyscience (#007) I can't stop laughing. I don't know why... I just can't. --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2008 2:41:58 PM | message detail |
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Most unexpected upset: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=R_PqZofBPWg&feature=related --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 2:42:07 PM | message detail |
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vote Tim --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2008 2:43:51 PM | message detail |
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--- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2008 2:44:34 PM | message detail |
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I'm not voting for him when there's Chris Redfield! "Barry, where's Barry?" "Wesker? Jill? What happened to Jill and Wesker?" "Is that you Rebecca" --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. EC > Me |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2008 2:46:14 PM | message detail |
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who is tim up against again? oh yeah some jobbers like fox sora and chris DUH TIMS GETTIN MY VOTE --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/16/2008 2:46:24 PM | message detail |
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hey tron: wowhead.com --- Married to Heroic Palmer! HeroicTronBonne - "Albion, I would Love to do an account bet with you over Ike/Arthas. " Don't forget! |
| Ayvuir | Posted 9/16/2008 2:48:44 PM | message detail |
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So close to....GAME TIME! --- ~C~ SC2k8 CPO Challenge - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45061044 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2008 2:49:37 PM | message detail |
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and LOL @ Soulja Boy --- The Straight Up G WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| ZFS | Posted 9/16/2008 2:50:10 PM | message detail |
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That does bring up a good question though: how does CC:FF7 compare
to DoC:FF7? I think CC > DoC in terms of generally being liked from
what I hear, but what about sales and what it can do for the characters
in them? Crisis Core beats Dirge of Cerberus all day there. It sold a bit more than Dirge at around 600,000 copies here -- and that's before taking into account the number of people who downloaded it instead of bought (should be a notable number considering it's a PSP game). Crisis Core will matter more to Zack than Dirge did to Vincent, too. Not much of a comparison here. --- let's mosey |
| paulg235 | Posted 9/16/2008 2:50:39 PM | message detail |
| Vote for Travis! |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 2:52:17 PM | message detail |
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well, Zack has a lot more room to grow. CC probably means more though, yeah. but DOC didn't even seem to make that much of a difference - it's the classic "anyone that bought that piece of crap was already voting for Vincent" argument. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| ZFS | Posted 9/16/2008 2:55:35 PM | message detail |
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Yep. It wasn't a good enough game to matter to someone as strong as Vincent. Different situation with Crisis Core, though. --- let's mosey |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/16/2008 2:58:32 PM | message detail |
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I have the most cookie-cutter Final Four: Link/Mario/Cloud/Sephiroth. Yay! --- [Multiple Scorgasms] Score: 0/0 Today's Pick: Zack Fair > Wario |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/16/2008 2:58:59 PM | message detail |
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Crisis Core was well received though. DoC got DMC2 or Shadow the Hedgehog like reviews and WoM. --- Demyx is better than Axel. Just like Explicit Content is better than me for winning the Guru contest. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/16/2008 3:00:24 PM | message detail |
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mario what lol --- Married to Heroic Palmer! HeroicTronBonne - "Albion, I would Love to do an account bet with you over Ike/Arthas. " Don't forget! |
| ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/16/2008 3:00:44 PM | message detail |
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As we were saying... MacMillan = Cousin It http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/9301/captainmacmillanfu3.png --- (|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08) . /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2008 3:00:45 PM | message detail |
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i remember Zylo saying something about taking the sandbag is silly; but i would argue weighted cube being even sillier. there's nothing 'weak' about Tidus and Donkey Kong with little to nothing holding their fanbases back. --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| Lopen | Posted 9/16/2008 3:21:06 PM | message detail |
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Soulja boy is hilarious. Best game review ever. --- Prisoner number 4983-4750-0321 Latest RS&D Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=45247247 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2008 3:22:00 PM | message detail |
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e-mail him about the character battle and we might just get him and his fans to vote for Tim! --- *is Dranze* Explicit Contest is my lord. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2008 3:41:24 PM | message detail |
| At least the Sandbag has the huge Smash fanbase to draw from. Portal is niche. |
| MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/16/2008 3:42:22 PM | message detail |
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portal is niche and the cube meme is dead, nobody cares about it anymore --- Married to Heroic Palmer! HeroicTronBonne - "Albion, I would Love to do an account bet with you over Ike/Arthas. " Don't forget! |
| ZFS | Posted 9/16/2008 3:42:53 PM | message detail |
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let's not do this again --- let's mosey |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 3:46:18 PM | message detail |
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Black Turtle vs. Albion yesssss let's talk about Tim, Soulja Boy Factor's gonna push him past Chris Redfield --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2008 3:48:04 PM | message detail |
| Cube meme? |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2008 3:54:45 PM | message detail |
| Note that the only joke characters going to the second round in my bracket are L and Mudkip |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/16/2008 6:40:41 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, when I was referring to the Compilation of Final Fantasy VII, I
was referring to Advent Children, Before Crisis, Crisis Core, and Dirge
of Cerberus. I'd wager Advent Children probably wins, and Before Crisis
gets about 1%. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2008 6:51:12 PM | message detail |
| Well, looks like the board is in full-swing Zack discussion. |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/16/2008 6:52:23 PM | message detail |
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Okay, so after a bunch of thought (plus playing a bit of Crisis Core),
I've decided to go with Zack to get to the quarterfinals over Shadow.
Not that I think he will be entirely strong, but after a lot of
consideration, I think his path is just
right for him to do it. I still have him losing to Wario in the first
round, mind you. But being paired with Link is the best thing he has
going for him. Basically I look at it like this. Shadow got 26% against the likes of Auron, Chris Redfield, and Pyramid Head. Auron got 43%, so in a poll with Shadow, Zack, and Wario, I'd expect Link to get 50% easily, especially with Wario most likely hemorrhaging percentage to Link. So with Link being much stronger than Auron, and Zack most likely being much stronger than Chris Redfield or Pyramid Head, Shadow definitely will definitely not be getting 26% (Vincent was only able to get 27% on Link with a SFF'd Zelda and Bidoof in the poll). Now, take a look at this: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2899&num=4 Wario had to deal with getting skewered by Sephiroth, as well as double SFF from Fox and Meta-Knight, and he still was able to manage 10%. I'd say Wario is at least good for 10% in the poll with Link, Zack, and Shadow. So if Link is getting 50% and Wario is getting at least 10%, that leaves 40% at best to split between Zack and Shadow. And remember, Vincent only managed 27% in that one poll, so Shadow probably wouldn't get past the lower 20s with Link in the poll regardless of who the competition was, granted they aren't complete fodder. So now the spotlight goes to Zack. It doesn't matter that Zack is "black-haired Cloud" or has the Buster Sword, or what his role was in order to be recognized by the FFVII fanbase on this site. It's not about fanbase-wide recognition for this particular match-up. Between FFVII and Crisis Core, Zack just needs to have gained enough fans to get around 20% in this particular poll. I think Crisis Core alone could be enough to do that. It's probably the most popular FFVII game and it is a proper FFVII game that seems to be more well-received than Dirge of Cerberus. Just looking around the board, and it seems like Crisis Core has gained Zack some fans. Whatever Zack has from his small role in FFVII among that fanbase is a bonus. He just needs enough from Crisis Core to reach that number: 20%. And he might not even need that much. We already know that Shadow won't be getting a terribly high percentage. Wario could be getting more than 10%, and if that's the case and Wario doesn't get totally killed by Link, we're talking a 3-way split between Wario, Zack, and Shadow for 45-50%. If this is the case, all Zack needs from the entire FFVII fanbase is enough hardcore voters to get him 15-20%. I'm thinking that Crisis Core might have been enough to convert that much of the fanbase into core Zack fans. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/16/2008 6:52:49 PM | message detail |
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Heh, nice timing Turtle... --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| LeonhartFour | Posted 9/16/2008 6:57:20 PM | message detail |
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Wario had to deal with getting skewered by Sephiroth, as well as
double SFF from Fox and Meta-Knight, and he still was able to manage 10% Why are you talking like this is impressive? Getting owned by Meta Knight is NOT impressive, no matter how you slice it. --- Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/16/2008 6:59:44 PM | message detail |
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Why are you talking like this is impressive? Getting owned by Meta Knight is NOT impressive, no matter how you slice it. Who said it was impressive? All I said was Wario was good for at least 10%. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 7:00:12 PM | message detail |
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I doubt Wario gets 10% there. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2008 7:02:39 PM | message detail |
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Even if Wario ends up with only 4% (not
happening), that still only raises the threshold of victory mnm posited
from 20% to 23%. If CC is good enough to clear the former, I'd say it's
good enough for the latter. The rub is that we have to assume CC would
be worth anything at all... --- turnturnturn your brain in turnturnturn your brain in |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 7:03:43 PM | message detail |
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CC is certainly worth something... the question is what is FF7 worth? because I have no idea and nor does anybody else. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/16/2008 7:04:49 PM | message detail |
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Even if Wario ends up with only 4% (not happening), that still only raises the threshold of victory mnm posited from 20% to 23%. Exactly. You guys are focusing on the wrong thing. Shadow is not getting much more than 20% (if that). If Wario fails to get 10%, that most likely means that Link is getting more. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/16/2008 7:08:00 PM | message detail |
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CC is certainly worth something... the question is what is FF7 worth? because I have no idea and nor does anybody else. Well CC is a special case. It's not just any game that's a million seller on the PSP. It's a million seller that catered to FF7 fans. It's not like it's a standalone game that we're relying on solely to get a character 20% on Link. --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/16/2008 7:13:06 PM | message detail |
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I'd say Link is probably getting a fair amount above 50% in that poll.
He got 45% with Vincent, Crono, and Zero, which is pretty remarkable.
We don't have a Link poll with him against low midcarders, but Cloud
got 56% with Ocelot, Marcus, and Kefka. Shadow/Zack/Wario is arguably
worse competition and Link is certainly stronger. --- Mustache...and green... |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/16/2008 7:15:32 PM | message detail |
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And as far as I know CC is well under a million sold in America. I seem to recall HM throwing around 600k or so. --- Mustache...and green... |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/16/2008 7:15:59 PM | message detail |
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590k is the last number I saw. pretty good. --- xyzzy http://users.tpg.com.au/112358//85454546braidav.gif |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/16/2008 7:19:42 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, a quick look at (lol) vgchartz shows about 600k in the US, 1.67 mil worldwide. Then you have people like me... <_<; --- Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2008 7:21:59 PM | message detail |
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Psh, second round is obviously going to be Link>Zidane. Seriously though, I just can't see Zack winning. If Shadow gets by Zidane it means my whole 'SFFd by Link' theory is worthless, and I can't see Zack being stronger than even this weaker Shadow. --- Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP) |
