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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 563

Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 5:25:07 PM | message detail
Well, you're one of the core L-Block supporters, so of course it'll still be funny to you. Plus you probably doubt it more than the humanoids do at this point

I'm just saying that in my case at least (and I think this is common) the joke is way more funny when you don't see it coming. Like I said before in the case of Bidoof. (and to a lesser extent L round 1)

I hate Bidoof, but I couldn't help but laugh when it was beating Vincent down for an hour because it was just SO left field. L-Block, on the other hand, though I doubted it, I at least humored the idea of winning every round and most of the humor was lost. I don't think the humanoids believed it had much of a chance until it was already at the point of "there ain't no gettin offa this train we're on"
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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 5:26:26 PM | message detail
Get Bidoof outta here.

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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:26:31 PM | message detail
Bidoof was never funny!

and I totally voted for Cloud.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:27:07 PM | message detail
Might as well give up Lopen. If you don't accept L-Block as your lord and savior, you are an idiot and you're wrong and deserve to be laughed at.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:28:01 PM | message detail
The internet loves to run jokes to the ground. They couldn't resist making L-Block the champ again. They love repeating old jokes ad nauseum.

You overestimate the intelligence of your average GameFAQs/internet user.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:28:28 PM | message detail
uhhh

for the record, I have L-Block losing in round 2. all I'm asking is that if you're gonna make points against L, do it with the entire population in mind, not just we who follow the contests like hawks.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:28:36 PM | message detail

therealmnm (#254)
Might as well give up Lopen. If you don't accept L-Block as your lord and savior, you are an idiot and you're wrong and deserve to be laughed at.


Pfft, I'm already laughing at you for that passive-aggressive sarcastic shlock.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:29:14 PM | message detail
I mean, if 25% of the site voted Mudkip, the lamest, stupidest, most run into the ground joke ever, they're going to vote for the Block.

argh I'm tired of talking about this come on Thursday
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:29:32 PM | message detail
L-Block does not work like that.

Round 1 it got 30% because 2 of the characters were fodder. Its true strength was 28% as seen in rounds 2 and 3 increasing as his matches grew closer together his percent grows slightly as we see him break 29% by round 4. Also notice how his vote totals remain static through the rounds. By rounds 5 and 6 the entire internet was now behind him pushing his percent and vote totals to 34% and 33% respectively.

The block will get about 28% in that match. Whatever happens to the other 72% is none of the block's concern.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:29:53 PM | message detail
k
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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 5:30:05 PM | message detail
Let's go Zack

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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:30:22 PM | message detail
that was to Mega by the way
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:32:08 PM | message detail
I'd expect L-Block matches to get higher votals than usual, most of those going to the good ol' block himself, so L-Block's percentages could very well be more skewed in favor of the block this year thanks to his reputation.

Once people find out the Block has a match, they'll come rushing to vote for it. He's a celebrity, and everyone loves him.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 5:32:08 PM | message detail
Well then...

Ryu 41%
Meta Knight 26%
L-Block 25% (Dog LFF)
The Dog 8%

Seems about right to be gg L-Block

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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 5:34:31 PM | message detail
And I'm just saying that I am mostly considering the population of GameFAQs at large. Never again have I said "people will think it's old look at B8." I'm using the poll from yesterday to justify it, it has nothing to do with contest hawks.

It's not whether the joke is "old" as much as whether it's a shock. The reason many contest hawks thought it was old last year before it even won the bracket was because it wasn't shocking anymore. I bet most people on the board, even L-Block haters, had to at least chuckle at the beginning of round 1. I mean, if I, president of the L hate club and president of the Kirby fanclub could do it...

And Mudkip's fanbase is partially legit. I stand by that.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:34:41 PM | message detail
for the record, I have L-Block losing in round 2. all I'm asking is that if you're gonna make points against L, do it with the entire population in mind, not just we who follow the contests like hawks.

If you don't mind me asking... why do you have L-Block losing in Rd 2?
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:36:30 PM | message detail
cause Ryu is *much* better competition than Meta-Knight. I'm not worried about him being able to bring in percentage, and Amaterasu isn't going to do a whole lot here. so you figure:

Amaterasu 10%
L-Block 28%

that leaves 62% for Crono and Ryu, and given that I think more of Ryu than I do of Zero and Zero got pretty close to Crono, I think that'll be a fairly close match.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:40:55 PM | message detail
But if L-Block was as strong as he was at the end of last contest, shouldn't he be winning the 2nd match?
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:42:53 PM | message detail
Yes.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:43:11 PM | message detail
when did I say he was as strong as the end of the last contest? all I said is that he's stronger than round 1 of 2007.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:48:37 PM | message detail
Just wondering. It seemed like you have L-Block going all the way seeing how much you've been arguing for him. I have L-Block going out in the second round in a narrow loss as well, saying that I didn't think L-Block had enough in him to make a repeat run.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:50:53 PM | message detail
oh, I argue for and against my bracket all the time. I have no idea what's going to happen and don't even pretend to know - I just try to break things down as best I can. I've argued for Sandbag winning the thing, Cube getting out of his division, Mudkip to the semifinals and L-Block dominance, yet I don't have any of these things. it's just very possible and this topic is fairly anti-joke characters, so I speak up when it comes to them sometimes.

also I'm really bored
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:53:53 PM | message detail
plus, I *hate* making a bracket where a joke character dominates, it sucks the fun out of it. four-ways are usually about matchups more than strength, but with joke characters it's ALL about matchups as opposed to strengths and that's just boring.

I don't mind 'em winning, but I don't like predicting 'em.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:57:25 PM | message detail
I like the 2002-era level of unpredictability. It also makes me feel smarter than this board in terms of predicting contests. For once my bracket may actually do better than most other Board 8ers.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 5:58:02 PM | message detail
Well, it's one thing to be anti-joke character and another thing to think that they will lose at some point. I think those two are being grouped together...
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/15/2008 5:59:27 PM | message detail
L-Block's hilarity is severely underrated in this topic. To go from guys like Cloud and Link being the perennial juggernauts to some Block from Tetris whooping everyone's ass is immensely epic.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 6:01:17 PM | message detail
I just realized that this topic is going to be unbearable no matter what the result in the L-Block matches. gloating? whining? both? yay!
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/15/2008 6:02:20 PM | message detail
Another thing...Ryu? Crono? Meta-Knight? These guys PALE in comparison to Cloud, Link, Snake, and the others. If you think the internet is just gonna collectively forget how awesome L-Block winning was allowing him to job to such lesser competition, think again.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:02:58 PM | message detail

trannyscience (#277)
I just realized that this topic is going to be unbearable no matter what the result in the L-Block matches. gloating? whining? both? yay!


I for one can't wait.

If you thought last year was bad... I may just die from laughter after this contest. So much delicious schadenfrauden...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 6:10:48 PM | message detail
Some BOP stats:

Round 1
1st Wario: 26
1st Zack: 15
2nd Cecil: 3

2nd Shadow: 35
2nd Zidane: 6

1st Marth: 30
2nd Kefka: 16
2nd Niko: 13
1st Duke: 3
2nd Duke: 2

2nd Knuckles: 21
2nd Zelda: 19

2nd Frog: 32
2nd KOS-MOS: 6
2nd Neku: 3

2nd Falco: 37
2nd GlaDOS: 4

2nd Gordon: 31
2nd Balthier: 8

2nd Meta Knight: 21
2nd L-Block: 19

2nd Diddy: 21
2nd Kratos Aurion: 21
2nd Falcon: 5

2nd Arthas: 21
2nd Ike: 18

1st Tidus: 27
1st DK: 14

2nd Nero: 20
2nd Olimar: 19

The only completely unanimous R1 match is Snake>Vivi, where all 41 brackets picked that result.

2nd Ness: 26
2nd Pac-man: 15

2nd Magus: 33
2nd Sandbag: 8


Round 2
2nd Shadow: 21
2nd Zack: 18
2nd Zidane: 1 (>______>)

1st Lucario: 23
2nd Lucario: 11
2nd Niko: 11
2nd Marth: 10
2nd Kefka: 7

1st Luigi: 26
1st Bowser: 11
2nd Bowser: 23
2nd Liquid: 10

2nd Ryu: 36
2nd L-Block: 4

1st Pikachu: 28
1st Alucard: 12

2nd Tidus: 37
2nd DK: 4

1st Squall: 34
1st Yoshi: 7

The only unanimous 2nd Round match is Cloud>Mewtwo.

1st Master Chief: 32
1st Kirby: 9

1st Dante: 36
2nd Leon: 19
2nd Riku: 17

2nd Kratos: 34
2nd Tifa: 4


Round 3
2nd Shadow: 12
2nd Zack: 12
2nd Kefka: 6
2nd Lucario: 5
2nd Niko Bellic: 5
2nd Zidane: 1 (>_______________________>)

1st Mario: 27
1st Mega Man X: 14

1st Samus: 38
1st Vincent: 3

The only unanimous Round 3 match is Snake>Mega Man.

2nd Yoshi: 36
2nd Squall: 3
2nd Mewtwo: 2

1st Master Chief: 31
1st Kirby: 8
2nd Dante: 21
2nd Kirby: 13


Round 4
2nd Mario: 33
2nd Mega Man X: 8

2nd Vincent: 23
2nd Crono: 12

2nd Sonic: 31
2nd Master Chief: 9


Round 5
2nd Vincent: 14
2nd Mario: 11
2nd Crono: 9

1st Cloud: 33
1st Snake: 7
2nd Snake: 31
2nd Sephiroth: 8


Round 6
1st Link: 38
1st L-Block: 1
1st Cloud Strife: 1
1st Sandbag: 1
2nd Cloud Strife: 33
2nd Solid Snake: 4
2nd Link: 2
2nd L-Block: 2


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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:17:46 PM | message detail
I'd just like to point out that people who think a repeat performance by L would still be funny severely missed the point of last contest.

Or are just one of those types who think it was all about "teh funnie" or sticking it to Link.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:20:06 PM | message detail

Biolizard28 (#281)
I'd just like to point out that people who think a repeat performance by L would still be funny severely missed the point of last contest.

Or are just one of those types who think it was all about "teh funnie" or sticking it to Link.


I think it'd be funny because Board 8 would have an even bigger whinefest than last year and would probably cause half the statheads who frequent this topic to promptly kill themselves or at least break down into tears.

You can't tell me you wouldn't want to see that.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:22:15 PM | message detail
No I wouldn't.

Because expecting and celebrating such an outcome like we overthrew a ****ing tyrant is ridiculous. As a person frequently accused of taking the contest too seriously last year, this really ticks me off.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 6:22:24 PM | message detail
In other news, I've now taken Kefka out of my bracket in favor of Niko. I've seen plenty of arguments going around for that match, but the one argument that convinced me is that Marcus Fenix was able to beat Kefka. Gears of War isn't exactly the most character-centric of games (outside of the Cole-train whoooo), and is just a 360/PC game. GTA is much more character-centric and spreads out to the 360 and PS3. If Fenix can do it, Niko should be able to as well.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:23:11 PM | message detail

Biolizard28 (#283)
No I wouldn't.

Because expecting and celebrating such an outcome like we overthrew a ****ing tyrant is ridiculous. As a person frequently accused of taking the contest too seriously last year, this really ticks me off.


Enjoy your heart attack.
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SephirothG | Posted 9/15/2008 6:24:22 PM | message detail
I think it'd be funny because Board 8 would have an even bigger whinefest than last year and would probably cause half the statheads who frequent this topic to promptly kill themselves or at least break down into tears.

I literally lol'd at the thought of Harrich crying at his computer with gamefaqs on the screen. Heh.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 6:25:02 PM | message detail
yep, I made that argument earlier - if Fenix can do it, Niko can. Niko can definitely bomb and open up the way for Kefka, but he could also beat Marth (something Kefka can't do).
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2008 6:25:12 PM | message detail
My thought of the night - if anything can be garnered from this contest on a macro level by the end of it, my guess is that it will be that Nintendo will have fallen significantly this year. As a big proponent of NINTENDO/ZELDA/BRAWLFEAR since 2005, I would like to articulate why I believe that will be the case in a few select polls:

Poll 3164 (06/30/08)
What was the best game of the first half of 2008?

1278 1.24% Burnout Paradise
1895 1.83% God of War: Chains of Olympus
26083 25.25% Grand Theft Auto IV
27662 26.78% Metal Gear Solid 4
4098 3.97% Persona 3 FES
38079 36.87% Super Smash Bros. Brawl
4187 4.05% The World Ends With You

TOTAL VOTES: 103282


GTA does great in multi-option polls? MGS4 riding high on finally being released? Excuses, excuses - I expected Brawl to dominate this poll into the ground, and most of you would have agreed with me prior to it. This is, remember, the game that did this:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3004

Going from that performance on the two heavy hitters there, plus Final Fantasy XIII, Resident Evil 5, Street Fighter IV, StarCraft II, Gears of War 2, and Devil May Cry 4 to turning in the same against such lackluster competition is proof positive that Brawl did not live up to expectations for many, many gamers.

But that can't be the whole story. Directly after its release, GTA IV had an initial playrate here of 24.2%. MGS4 had 18.5%. Brawl had 31.5%, with 16% more committed to get it later on that very week. The only explanation I've heard floated thus far for the result's aberrance is that MGS4 benefitted from franchise voting in that poll. Thing is - I, of all people, don't have to remind you all that Smash as a series has shown more power and raked in more franchise votes than Metal Gear has ever come close to.

There's only one reasonable explanation that can fully account for the entire discrepancy here. And it's kind of obvious when you think about it. Brawl anticipation was doing more on this site for Nintendo characters than anything since... well, TP anticipation. We literally saw the SSBB website updates transform Ninty characters' worst times and translate them into some of their best updates. Now, however, Brawl is released. The anticipation and buzz has given way to the traditional FAQ and board activity. In other words, a large part of the SSBB influx has dissipated.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2008 6:25:26 PM | message detail
This is given credence by this poll, taken a few weeks after SSBB's release:

Poll 3068 (03/26/08)
If you could only choose one current game system to play for the rest of 2008, which would it be?

6303 5.58% DS
12688 11.23% PC
24855 22% PlayStation 3
2982 2.64% PSP
30430 26.93% Wii
35720 31.62% Xbox 360

TOTAL VOTES: 112978

The 360 is not only beating the Wii in this poll, it's doing so with ease. Hell, the PS3 is closer to the Wii than the Wii is to the 360! And even if you wanted to get punched in the throat and bring up DS LFF, note that the 360 is almost outdoing the two combined.

Now, this isn't to say that Nintendo isn't the #1 company here. It is - given Square's favorite past time of shooting itself in the head for the past few years, it would be a travesty if it weren't. The Wii still has the highest playrate. Link is still the strongest character. What should be noted, however, is how well the competition is doing despite their inherent disadvantages. The original Xbox was reviled here - yet the 360 has thrived, keeping far better pace with the Wii here than it has with the general public. The PS3 has been a walking parade of mistakes that refuses to just give in and drop the price, yet its relative growth since the last contest has been remarkable - enough to even call it 'relevant' again, mayhap. This is not merely the work of Nintendo's rivals. It's not even mostly their work. The Wii has failed to capitalize on a massive install base and goodwill advantage here, and its upcoming game schedule now vaguely resembles a nuclear wasteland. No matter what the contest or the format, I believe one absolute truth will come through - and that is that Nintendo will suffer.

Note: this is not going to affect most of the outcomes - just as, for all the scaremongering about the Ninty Boost in 2k5, very few of the actual results of matches were changed by it. It does, however, reduce the chances of Snake > Cloud to little more than a fanboy pick. :(
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/15/2008 6:26:45 PM | message detail
Are we still taking Poll of the Days into effect for Contests?
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:27:27 PM | message detail
Can I have a tl;dr version?
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:28:01 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi (#290)
Are we still taking Poll of the Days into effect for Contests?

Only ones that actually have to do with the contest.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2008 6:28:58 PM | message detail
Can I have a tl;dr version?

Nintendo will be weaker this contest because lol Wii
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 6:29:13 PM | message detail
great argument. here's my favourite -- top 20 FAQs:

1 1 1 37 PC Spore
2 6 2 61 Xbox 360 Rock Band 2
3 2 1 45 Xbox 360 Tales of Vesperia
4 13 2 28 Xbox 360 Star Wars: The Force Unleashed

5 4 1 709 DS Pokemon Diamond
6 3 2 25 Xbox 360 Mercenaries 2: World in Flames
7 5 1 222 Wii Super Smash Bros. Brawl
8 8 4 24 Xbox 360 Infinite Undiscovery
9 9 9 81 DS Pokemon Platinum
10 11 1 873 PlayStation 2 Final Fantasy XII
11 7 1 20 Xbox 360 Castle Crashers
12 10 1 91 PlayStation 3 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots
13 12 1 1376 PC World of Warcraft
14 14 1 77 DS Final Fantasy IV
15 19 15 38 PC Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning
16 15 8 47 PlayStation 3 Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice
17 17 1 431 Xbox 360 Halo 3
18 16 1 139 Xbox 360 Grand Theft Auto IV

19 20 4 381 PSP Monster Hunter Freedom 2
20 21 2 232 PSP Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII

check out the Wii titles (bold) vs. the 360 titles (italics). I want so badly to take some Xbox characters far, but the only one that really stands out to me is Ryu Hayabusa, and he's in a match against a guy with arguably the biggest release of the contest in Zero. (don't think he's in it, but it doesn't matter - he's actually relevant again)

Master Chief could be something because of this as well.

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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 6:29:58 PM | message detail
Nice couple of posts there. Agree with most of it - especially the bit about Brawl.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:30:13 PM | message detail

Karma Hunter (#289)
Note: this is not going to affect most of the outcomes - just as, for all the scaremongering about the Ninty Boost in 2k5, very few of the actual results of matches were changed by it. It does, however, reduce the chances of Snake > Cloud to little more than a fanboy pick. :(


People actually considered Snake > Cloud? I want to meet these people so I can laugh at their faces.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:31:28 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter (#293)
Nintendo will be weaker this contest because lol Wii

Oh hey

No.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 6:31:31 PM | message detail
and he's in a match against a guy with arguably the biggest release of the contest in Zero

Argh don't play with my emotions like that
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 6:33:13 PM | message detail
Actually, Nintendo dropping would only help L-Block, so I'm all for it.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2008 6:34:36 PM | message detail
L-Block's hilarity is severely underrated in this topic. To go from guys like Cloud and Link being the perennial juggernauts to some Block from Tetris whooping everyone's ass is immensely epic

L-Block's hilarity is severely underrated in this topic. To go from guys like Cloud and Link being the perennial juggernauts to some Block from Tetris whooping everyone's ass is immensely epic.


Yes, it was hilarious, but if L were to repeat performance, it would defeat the entire purpose of last year's run AND run yet another joke into the crowd.

Why does this site have to be pure assburgers sometimes?
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