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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 563

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/15/2008 3:31:53 PM | message detail
Nobody is saying Meta-Knight is garbage. Heck, he's probably one of the stronger "pure Brawl" characters because he looks cool and is easy to use/win with. However, I have no reason to believe that he'd be stronger than L-Block. You've given no explanation as to why L-Block will just regress to his pre-2007 strength. Why do you think this will happen?
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 3:33:11 PM | message detail
I feel more and more worried about Meta-Knight beating out the block lately, if only because of the numbers. I'm not sure if L can get a big percentage here and he may need it. I don't know what to do about this match.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 3:33:26 PM | message detail
however, if this match is close, the internet will be alerted.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 3:35:14 PM | message detail
You've given no explanation as to why L-Block will just regress to his pre-2007 strength. Why do you think this will happen?

L-Block doesn't have strength like other characters do. He thrives on tough competition that hurt each other and allow his somewhat static fanbase to do their work.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2008 3:35:59 PM | message detail
If Meta Knight wins that match, it'll be more than just random The Dog SFF or whatever that aided it. It'll mean that he's 4REAL in a way that catapults him up to near Kirby level.

Like I said - slim to nil.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 3:37:14 PM | message detail
If Meta Knight wins that match, it'll be more than just random The Dog SFF or whatever that aided it. It'll mean that he's 4REAL in a way that catapults him up to near Kirby level.

Or combination of Dog LFF and L-Block dropping, which is a big possibility.

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Big Bob | Posted 9/15/2008 3:37:51 PM | message detail
L-Block will be stronger in his first match this year than he was in his first match last year.

However...he won't be as strong as when he finished last year. If you recall, the entire internet was voting in those last few matches by that point; that's how much steam the block had picked up. If you try and spur interest with the contest again on other sites, people are going to give a "meh". And even if you told them L-Block was in it, they would have to mark their calender in order to vote for it, and at that point they would probably lose interest (as opposed to the final rounds of the last contest, where it was only a few days in between the Block's matches).
trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 3:38:05 PM | message detail
L-Block dropping from 2007 round 1 isn't a possibility.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 3:46:15 PM | message detail
I think it is. I still say shock factor is very important for a joke entry, and people are underestimating the impact of L-Block being a respected competitor now.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 3:48:13 PM | message detail
L-Block: the only character to ever decrease for doing well.

I like the sound of that!

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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 3:50:41 PM | message detail
PartOfYourWorld (#201)
Nobody is saying Meta-Knight is garbage. Heck, he's probably one of the stronger "pure Brawl" characters because he looks cool and is easy to use/win with. However, I have no reason to believe that he'd be stronger than L-Block. You've given no explanation as to why L-Block will just regress to his pre-2007 strength. Why do you think this will happen?

Okay then.

1) As covered earlier, L-Block's main supporters probably don't remember him well enough to carry him to such high percentages.

2) Only 16% of the actual site is expecting L-Block to perform.

3) The presence of other joke characters splitting the casual support.

4) The lack of support from other sites present in later rounds.
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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 3:55:46 PM | message detail
Well it's not as if L makes sense to begin with! Why not?
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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 4:00:33 PM | message detail
I do find it amusing though that while both Biolizard and I are calling for a weaker L-Block, we're doing it for entirely opposite reasons.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 4:02:17 PM | message detail
... What's that supposed to mean?
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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 4:04:44 PM | message detail
You're saying "people won't remember L-Block so he won't do as well" and I'm saying "people will remember L-Block so he won't do as well."
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:06:40 PM | message detail
it's weird how you're both against each other and yet somehow both wrong!
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 4:24:45 PM | message detail
Pfft, we'll see, tran man. I'll just say that any amount of confidence in correctly calling a wildcard like L-Block before the contest... well... shouldn't be there.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:25:31 PM | message detail
now that I agree with. unfortunately, you two are the ones making definitive statements about L!
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/15/2008 4:27:40 PM | message detail
I'm not confident in pinpointing L-Block's end results, but I do feel that arguing for an early exit would make more sense if the L is staring down Crono, not Meta-Knight.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/15/2008 4:30:22 PM | message detail
now that I agree with. unfortunately, you two are the ones making definitive statements about L!

trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 6:38:05 PM | message detail
L-Block dropping from 2007 round 1 isn't a possibility.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 4:31:25 PM | message detail
snaaaap



So does the contest Wednesday night or Thursday night?

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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 4:32:19 PM | message detail
Wednesday night probably.

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let's mosey
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 4:32:26 PM | message detail
^5 mnm
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/15/2008 4:33:10 PM | message detail
god I wish it started tonight. why did bacon have to push it back
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 4:35:25 PM | message detail
By the way, anyone notice a severe lack of females in the bracket?
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:35:42 PM | message detail
heh.

L-Block falling from where he was in round 1 last year just doesn't make any sense. you can dig out all the arguments about Laharl vs. L-Block and the expectations we had on L - there just weren't any. nobody was prepared for what was about to happen.

now that people are, you think people are going to suddenly turn their backs en masse? I don't think so, and I don't see why you would.

what I meant was definitive statements about how he's going to get 40% on round 1 or how he's going to bomb. that's just silly - nobody knows there. but common sense would have you say that he is going to be in the range of where he was last year, just like everyone and everything else.
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 4:35:42 PM | message detail
I'm not being definitive. I think L loses in round 1 due to general weakening due to loss of shock factor and the Dog SFFing him. However I'm not at all confident in it.

Round 2 I'm a bit more confident in, but even then the dude terrifies me.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/15/2008 4:36:13 PM | message detail
By the way, anyone notice a severe lack of boobs in the bracket?

fixed
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:36:25 PM | message detail
The deadline for entries for the seventh annual Character Battle is Wednesday Evening, so get your bracket in today!

thursday.
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 4:37:29 PM | message detail
Only notable female we're missing is Aeris.

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let's mosey
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 4:38:08 PM | message detail
Rikku? Yuna?

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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:38:09 PM | message detail
YUNIE'S GONNA DIE Y'KNOW

hey that works for two characters
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xyzzy
ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 4:38:37 PM | message detail
Oh, yeah, the FFX chicks. Forgot about them.

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let's mosey
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/15/2008 4:38:38 PM | message detail
thursday.

*cries*

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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 4:38:43 PM | message detail
You can't treat a character like L like a normal character, though.

I've given reason for him to fall in round 1. Whether you agree with it is another story, but it's more than just "wildly grasping for anything just to see him fall." I don't claim to be totally unbiased but it's not as if I took MC over Crono in 2005 or something. I don't just fabricate arguments to favor "mah boyz"
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/15/2008 4:38:43 PM | message detail
Nana > Aeris
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Xuxon | Posted 9/15/2008 4:40:09 PM | message detail
thursday.

eh? technically the contest starts thursday, but i'd call it wednesday night.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/15/2008 4:41:04 PM | message detail
Wednesday night, cuz I'm assume people who are into it enough to post in the contest stats and discussion topic will be up at midnight for the match.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:41:06 PM | message detail
the match starts at 12am on Thursday, and even if you consider that Wednesday night the vast majority of the match will take place on a Thursday.
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xyzzy
trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 4:42:22 PM | message detail
I've given reason for him to fall in round 1. Whether you agree with it is another story, but it's more than just "wildly grasping for anything just to see him fall." I don't claim to be totally unbiased but it's not as if I took MC over Crono in 2005 or something. I don't just fabricate arguments to favor "mah boyz"

I've already said that I think Meta-Knight has a decent chance there.

(but to be fair, I remember your analyses last year! picked against the thing every time, every time spewing more venom than the last!)
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/15/2008 4:50:19 PM | message detail
MAH BOIZ
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2008 5:02:14 PM | message detail
Lara Croft is missing as well.

Not that anyone really cares.

The bracket needs more Chun-Li though.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/15/2008 5:03:52 PM | message detail
and peach. all the gals last year were probably just riding highs from 2006 in the nominations.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:04:49 PM | message detail
don't worry, we replaced all this fodder with Nana
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xyzzy
Calintares | Posted 9/15/2008 5:08:09 PM | message detail
What do you think Meta-Knight would get on Kirby barring SFF?

R1 L-Block last year got 41% on Kirby.

I believe this year R1 L-block is stronger than that, lets be cautious and say he would get 55% on Kirby this year in R1. (and that is probably in the low end of things)

then factor in Dog LFF and take him down a few notches, say to doing 50% on Kirby.

Do you think Meta-Knight is as strong as Kirby?

Also remember that R1 L-Block last year had a pretty bad picture, and it took a while before people started getting the joke. Whereas this year the block is guaranteed good pictures from the get-go and everyone knows the joke.

Most people have not spent a good part of the last year arguing about the block like you guys have, so while the block is not such a novelty this year as last; very few will have started to dislike it the way some of you have.
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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 5:13:11 PM | message detail
To be fair, I only started spitting venom at L-Block once it eliminated Kirby. (and I did call for him to win against Kratos and Riku in round 3!)

Though I mean, let's not fool ourselves I hate the bastard, but the point is I don't hate him to the degree that I'm making him go out against things I feel he has no chance of losing against.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:15:45 PM | message detail
Most people have not spent a good part of the last year arguing about the block like you guys have, so while the block is not such a novelty this year as last; very few will have started to dislike it the way some of you have.

winning post right here.

I called the Block right in every match last year except the semifinals, when he went nuts! woo
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 5:17:01 PM | message detail
I'm not saying L is going to get anti-voted like some board members will. I'm saying the joke isn't as funny (even to the fools who thought it was funny) when half of the site thinks you've got a damn good chance of owning the bracket again.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 5:18:21 PM | message detail
and I would argue to the contrary -- that seeing it do it again would still be funny.

let's move on
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xyzzy
M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/15/2008 5:18:40 PM | message detail
If L-Block pulls off another epic run, oh god damn will I laugh at this topic. My pure glee would outdo even Turtle's gloating.

Regardless, this should be an absolutely delightful contest. Lots of tears, I'm sure.
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