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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 563

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:52:39 PM | message detail
And Tetris has anything to do with that?

I was arguing more about how either you or someone else said a joke character would have momentium from the beginning. I seriously doubt they would until we got into later rounds, and neither Sandbag or L Block will make it there. For L Block for one, do you really think in round 2 he can beat our Ryu and Crono? Or Sandbag can take out Auron and Sonic?
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Yesmar | Posted 9/14/2008 8:52:55 PM | message detail
*Look at Ryu in Cloud/Mega Man/Samus/Ryu.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:54:58 PM | message detail
Well, we've seen CATS continually fail miserably (even with a great setup last year). We saw Mudkip run out of steam in the second round in a similarly favourable setup. We saw Bidoof humiliated by Link (while simultaneously humiliating Zelda). It's not impossible for joke characters to lose, and pretty much the worst situation they can run into is what confronts L and Sandbag - tough and LFF free competition in the first few rounds. Mudkip and the WCC have more generous early rounds, but we've already seen Mudkip fail in a similar situation and the WCC will probably need more than 25% to take his first round match.

The possibility certainly exists for joke characters to do well, but remember that L is the only truly successful such character and he had a very nice setup last year.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 8:58:13 PM | message detail
For L Block for one, do you really think in round 2 he can beat our Ryu and Crono?

He beat Cloud and Link last year. He's fighting them like hell right now. Yes, he can beat Crono and Ryu. He doesn't need to "start over". He wouldn't lose to Kratos in a second round match this year, and today's poll really hammers that home.

Or Sandbag can take out Auron and Sonic?

I think Sandbag can, yeah, although that will obviously be tougher. I agree with Mega's theory in that joke characters won't need as much time to gather momentum (in part because of what L-Block did last year, and in part because of how well they're doing right now), so I don't find it unthinkable to imagine the Bag making it far. Also, you're dead wrong if you think Sandbag is "unrecognizable" compared to L-Block. We debated the hell out of L-Block's recognizability a year ago, and we all got our very emphatic answer, right? We shouldn't make that same mistake with Sandbag. Everyone who has played Melee or Brawl (especially Brawl) will know Sandbag. He's instantly recognizable.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 9:00:48 PM | message detail
A block from a game over 100 million people have played > A character from a game maybe 10 million people played at most
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 9:01:00 PM | message detail
In regards to entrants like Mudkip, Bidoof, or Jinjo, I would consider them a whole different type of "joke character." Just one look at them or a very basic understanding of their fanbases should make it clear why.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:01:18 PM | message detail
L-Block has 15% in this poll. Do note that this is lower than we've ever seen him, and I seem to recall a lot of people treating him as if he was always guaranteed his 28%.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:03:06 PM | message detail
L-Block will get his traditional 28% while The Dog will get under 10% (anymore and he'll probably be hurting L-Block). If Ryu can take enough percent then Meta Knight won't have enough to beat L-Block.

That's how I see this match going.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 9:03:48 PM | message detail
A block from a game over 100 million people have played > A character from a game maybe 10 million people played at most

Well, I just read your sig and realized who you were. I kinda feel bad for wasting my time, but at least I've contributed significantly for the first time in days.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/14/2008 9:06:13 PM | message detail
i still think the dog can hurt L Block.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/14/2008 9:06:59 PM | message detail
I think the joke getting stale + EVERYONE using Metaknight in Brawl should let Meta win that. And if not, Sonic + Auron is ungodly hard for him.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:13:30 PM | message detail
Also what's with this talk of WCC getting 25% in a poll?

It got less than 20% in a poll where Pong Paddle was being SFF by the L-Block and it was during the height of its fad.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/14/2008 9:16:15 PM | message detail
but that's with other joke characters present!

..<_<
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:17:12 PM | message detail
L-Block will get his traditional 28% while The Dog will get under 10% (anymore and he'll probably be hurting L-Block). If Ryu can take enough percent then Meta Knight won't have enough to beat L-Block.

Just hypothetically here

L gets 28

Dog gets 10

that leaves 62

Meta Knight gets 29 to beat L

Ryu gets 33

uh oh, I have trouble believe Meta Knight can get that close to Ryu

But let's say Dog and L do some joke vote splitting

L gets 20

Dog gets 16

Metaknight gets... 22

Ryu get still get 42

which is kind of reasonable I guess

I dunno
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:20:51 PM | message detail
but that's with other joke characters present!

L-Block got around 30% of the vote which is around what he was getting by the end of the contest. Despite losing some strength to Paddle (see games contest Tetris vs Pong match)
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:21:42 PM | message detail
If Meta-Knight can pull it off, I think it'll be more like 36/28/24/12, and I definitely think it'll be The Dog's fault if L loses. Though yesterday's poll implies that jokes can get a significant percent of the whole, so maybe The Dog won't hurt L-Block.
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Yesmar | Posted 9/14/2008 9:35:23 PM | message detail
He beat Cloud and Link last year. He's fighting them like hell right now.

The two type of polls are not the same! Sure Master Hand won that one poll, but he did that DESPITE *being the second weakest character in the poll!* If anything, it proves that there's *not* some sort of direct parallel between those polls and popularity. Of course people are going to say they think L-Block will win. HE WON LAST YEAR! What do you think people are going to predict?

On another point, The Dog's not gonna need much to throw L-Block off it's game, since almost every percentage The Dog is going to be taken out of the 29% Joke Vote that L-Block got. Even 5% would probably be enough.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 9:45:49 PM | message detail
I have a hard time seeing Meta-Knight getting 30%, myself. it's possible, but I'd sooner see L at 30 than him.

I'm not thinking the dog is even notable here - and if he is, I don't think it hurts L significantly more than it hurts Meta-Knight.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 9:53:18 PM | message detail
Meta-Knight got 18% with a fellow (and probably better known) Nintendo character in the poll along with Sephiroth. 30%'s high but he can probably get pretty close - Ryu's strong, but not strong enough to take mid forties or something.

And why wouldn't The Dog be notable here? Damn near everyone's played Duck Hunt and everybody loves to hate that cursed mutt. And if he hurts anybody it's definitely L-Block.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 9:58:10 PM | message detail
I just don't think it'll get enough votes to really matter. it's not even necessarily a joke vote in my mind - I could see oldschool fans being like WHOA IT'S THE DUCK HUNT DOG HELL YEAH

I'm willing to entertain Meta-Knight getting second there, and kinda hope it happens even if it is against my bracket and prefer the Block, but I don't see L-Block going into this match at the same strength as 2007 round 1 Block.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 10:07:48 PM | message detail
Well, if L is as strong as he showed in the last match last year he gets 60% in his first match. Quite frankly, I think that's less likely than Meta-Knight getting 30%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/14/2008 10:18:18 PM | message detail
(then again, Zero looked kinda linear in 2005, but then he also got beat by Luigi way easier than he should have, and I don't even want to go into this.)

That was Zero getting SFFd into the ground by Mario.

Which is precisely why I don't have X beating Mario

And today's poll has convinced me to change the first round match to Ryu > L-Block, but I can't see it gaining enough steam to beat Crono/Ryu. Last year we had a good chunk of the internet on board for the joke, but the internet outside of GameFAQs has a much smaller attention span and is less likely to run jokes into the ground.

And the other jokes don't really have a chance.

Jinjo is too unknown and really was only a LUE fad. Companion Cube is going to be weak due to Portal's niche fanbase. Sandbag is the only potential threat, but he's against Auron and Sonic in the second round, so I can't see him advancing there.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/14/2008 10:22:28 PM | message detail
That was Zero getting SFFd into the ground by Mario.

Mario SFF's Zero more than Mega Man: this is turtle.
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Calintares | Posted 9/14/2008 10:23:28 PM | message detail
"And Tetris has anything to do with that?"

Yes, Tetris has everything to do with that.

In order for any joke character to succeed it is necessary that the voters "get the joke" and that is what makes the block so powerful: anyone who have played tetris will get the joke and might find it amusing, an EVERYONE have played tetris. (the GB version sold 30 million, nintendo have sold a total of 70 million tetris games, add the versions on computers, free flash games, cell phones etc. and you are probably looking at the only game in existence that have been played by over 100 000 000 people. And ALL of those people will "get the joke" about L-Block. if someone told them about it

There is a reason why a the final last year broke 2006 record for total votes with almost 40 K votes. and while the Block stole 20 000 votes from Link/Cloud/Snake as compared to their mach in the BR day 4, the block brought with him 40 K unique votes. The reason why 40 000 people who have probably never voted in any of these contests before voted was that they all had played tetris, understood the joke, and found it funny enough to do the small effort of going to gamefaqs.com and vote for it.

40 000 is really a small amount when you compare it to the amount of people who have played tetris it is something like 0,04% and still even such a small fraction of the people who have played tetris made such a vast difference.

Tetris is the most played game ever, but it is far from the most popular amongst hardcore gamers such as the ones who frequent this site. while we all have played it, a large majority of the site might prefer such a game as Legend of Zelda to it, but we still all know it, and we all got the joke about the block.

Compare that to SSBM/B those two have sold a total of about 12,5 million copies. on this site the latest post about brawl (poll 3060) 65% of the site had played brawl.

This is mostly what the Sandbag will have to deal with, he will mostly have to compete with other characters for the votes coming from the ones already on the site, he might do as well as the L-Block and be able to snag 20 K votes from Link\Cloud\Snake (though i doubt it, specifically because of SFF from Link and Snake) but he will NEVER get 40 000 outside votes. NEVER. EVER. and without that, he have no chance whatsoever of pulling an L-block, all because he does not hail from tetris while the L-block does.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2008 10:28:43 PM | message detail
Let me try predicting that round 1 match too.

Let's say L gets 27%. It's 1 less than his static 28% due to the Dog, and give the Dog 11% due to some joke votes and duck hunt voters.
Let's give Ryu... 36%. It's what he got in the Bowser/Mewtwo/Toad SFF/LFF fest

That leaves... 26% for Meta Knight. It's close, but that would be putting him above what SFFed Mewtwo got in that match. Increase Ryu some more, and Meta's probably the most likely to lose percentage, unless the Dog does worse.

For the record, Toad got 10% there and Bowser was slightly above 28.5% (similar to what we're giving L and Dog).

So, who's stronger, Mewtwo SFFed by Bowser and Toad, or an unhindered, Brawl boosted Meta Knight?
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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 12:19:56 AM | message detail
Why was yesterday's poll having everyone doomsay the "legit" entries?

Yes, L-Block and joke entires dominated the field. However, "Another popular character will take the throne" also pretty soundly beat Link, Cloud, and L. Does this mean that Mario, MC, Mega Man, Snake are suddenly going to tear through the bracket?

If anything, this to me speaks ill-ly for L's and other joke entires chances. I honestly think the majority of what made L so strong last year is that people didn't expect it. Like... I mean, Kirby my favorite character and future L hatred be damned even I had to laugh at least a little in his first round match last year. Actually, a better example would be that I laughed more (Bidoof) at Vincent's match simply because it wasn't my favorite character being made a fool of (though I do like Vincent, it wasn't out of spite).

Anyway, the point is that by the time the second round match came around with all the match analysis and such he had registered to me as a legit threat (though I still thought he'd lose) and was no longer even remotely funny. I don't think L registered as a legit threat to the humanoids to win the crown until he won it.

Point is, I think joke entries are Shock Factor Fueled (SFF...!) and that this shows they're getting respect, meaning it probably won't be as funny for all but the most fanatical L fans (ha).
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/15/2008 12:39:14 AM | message detail
We need to get the contest to got at least two days break, so the Cloud/Snake/Seph/Sonic match is the same day Sonic Unleashed is released.


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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 12:44:52 AM | message detail
Think you're gonna need 4 or 8 more days delay for that match to even happen at all if you catch my drift !!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/15/2008 12:48:22 AM | message detail
Does this mean that Mario, MC, Mega Man, Snake are suddenly going to tear through the bracket?

No, because Sandbag, The Dog, and Cube kicked their butts!
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/15/2008 2:20:36 AM | message detail
The thing with The Dog though, is that hardly anyone likes him.

Almost everyone wants his blood spilled and head on a stick.

I dont think he'll cause Block much Trouble. But Since Meta is essentially to Brawl what Fox was to melee, and Im doubting the Block's run continues, I do see Meta getting by.

RYE-YOO gets 1st though. Especially with 4 on its way now.
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Lopen | Posted 9/15/2008 2:31:36 AM | message detail
You people keep saying that, but almost everyone I know personally, including some L-Block fans (augh), would vote the Dog easily over L-Block. He's a bastard but that's why it's funny.

Maybe I just know too many Duck Hunt people, though.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2008 5:04:23 AM | message detail
I know I'm voting for The Dog

Probably the only legitimately funny joke character this year.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2008 5:46:08 AM | message detail
I don't know that it necessarily matters if people like The Dog or not. It's not like people love the L-Block in Tetris.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/15/2008 6:00:57 AM | message detail
Yeah, I would think even last year that I would like The Dog more than L-Block as a joke character. Still, nothing would make me happier than to see MK (or at least Ryu in the next round) ruin them both.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2008 9:06:12 AM | message detail
Well, L-Block has proven that another well-known joke character can thwart it somewhat. I don't know if you want to take that Bonus Match seriously or not, but there's hope!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2008 10:26:08 AM | message detail
i dont see any reason why not to take it seriously. it ran just like a normal poll and L-Block; the thing that beat Link, lost.
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Yesmar | Posted 9/15/2008 10:40:23 AM | message detail
I also don't see why there would be that many people who's order of preference is:

The Dog > Meta Knight > L Block

If you're going to give a joke vote to L Block, why wouldn't you give it to any other joke character? I know there are probably some legitimate Duck Hunt fans who will vote for The Dog to support the game, but I don't see that many votes for The Dog that do not come directly from L Block's base.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 11:57:20 AM | message detail
I don't see why people think MK is such a weak character.

I mean, you place anyone in a three way SFF match with one of the big three and tell me they'll look good.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2008 1:11:59 PM | message detail
I'd feel a lot better about Ryu > MK if MK could beat Fox. Based on what happened last year, despite his popularity in SSBB, I can't think MK's on Fox's level yet...or that close. L-Block's going to start stronger than he did last year and it's going to be interesting watching The Dog try to hurt it.

MK did surprisingly well last year, but SSBB still doesn't put him on-par with even an LFF'd returning champ. I doubt L-Block's going to be as strong as he ended last year, but I'm certain he'll be stronger than he started last year. It'll be interesting to watch, and I'm definitely rooting against my bracket so MK wins...but I don't think it's too likely.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/15/2008 2:45:55 PM | message detail
If you're going to give a joke vote to L Block, why wouldn't you give it to any other joke character? I

Because L-block is incredibly well known and very useful from where he's from(2nd only to T-block in that department)
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 3:10:55 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Kirby_vs_L-Block_vs_Laharl_vs_Nathan_Hale_2007

L-Blocks first round performance last year. Ignore what he put up against Kirby. Notice that he outright failed to double Laharl. Do you really think post-Brawl Meta Knight wouldn't be able to compete with that?
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 3:14:04 PM | message detail
Yesmar (#187)
If you're going to give a joke vote to L Block, why wouldn't you give it to any other joke character?

My own personal theory is that so many people are preoccupied with the joke they support (Meaning, like, a Sandbag nominator would support him over a joke that would ruin his chances at going somewhere) over the others, which essentially means that the joke "community" in its entirety is split in four.
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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 3:14:17 PM | message detail
Don't know why L-Block would revert back to its strength in round 1 last year. It isn't going to need to start over and pick up steam as it goes like it did last year.

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NotTerrafire | Posted 9/15/2008 3:16:50 PM | message detail
i don't know why some people think l-block will enter this contest with the same strength it had at the end of the last

a year is a long time on the internet. a substantial portion of this year's voters will not have visited GameFAQs until this year. a lot of the people who appreciated the joke last year will not be around. most people don't care about this contest nearly as much as b8 does; they'll only dimly remember l-block did well if at all.
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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 3:19:43 PM | message detail
It doesn't have be anywhere near its strength in the finals last year to get by Meta-Knight with no problem. Block isn't some unknown quantity to people on GameFAQs anymore -- they know what it can do. It's going to have to pick up a bandwagon to get going. It may not make it to the final without outside help, but getting by Meta-Knight? Come on.

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let's mosey
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2008 3:21:43 PM | message detail
getting by meta-knight with The Dog out there. i think the poster above said it best: not all of the people from last year are voting this year.

it's likely it'll get close to its normal strength.
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ZFS | Posted 9/15/2008 3:23:54 PM | message detail
Oh man Joke SFF

Well, I'm not going to argue this one anymore. We'll see what happens.

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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/15/2008 3:26:43 PM | message detail
Okay seriously? Stop treating Meta Knight like he's garbage.

1) He got stuck behind SFF twice in a row and was in the same match as Sephiroth, who overperformed in most every match, twice in a row.

2) He managed to beat Peach with trailer strength alone. He's currently a casual favorite in Brawl.

Seriously, get off his goddamn back.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2008 3:29:12 PM | message detail
I expect L to storm the bracket this year, but you can't use yesterday's poll as a be-all end-all indicator of its strength. Replace Link and Cloud in this poll with Mario and Sephiroth - is L Block *really* going to do that much better? Remember, it's the format that matters more than anything here. Given the right setup, L-Block could get shoved out to an early defeat. It just so happens that there's nothing remotely resembling said setup to me, other than a slim chance of him going out in Round 1.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/15/2008 3:30:51 PM | message detail
L-Blocks first round performance last year. Ignore what he put up against Kirby. Notice that he outright failed to double Laharl.

woo slanted stats

Seriously, get off his goddamn back.

woo fanboyism

I think we can safely disregard anything you say.
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