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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 563

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 5:30:21 PM | message detail
Pikachu is a monster in this format. Oh, and Diddy is finishing 4th in that match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 5:30:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 9/14/2008 5:49:56 PM | message detail
By 4th you mean in round 1 right?

CF for the win! (or second)
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 5:52:25 PM | message detail
Alucard > Diddy round 1

in Round 2, It'll most likely be Pikachu > Alucard > Arthas > Diddy
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/14/2008 5:53:10 PM | message detail
cant see Ike > Diddy even in this format.

and honestly i dont see how "Pikachu is a monster" if you mean losing badly to Leon Kennedy fair and square.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 5:59:11 PM | message detail
because pikachu cant be anti voted as effectively here, making him alot stronger then 1 on 1s
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/14/2008 6:03:33 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar (#105)
and honestly i dont see how "Pikachu is a monster" if you mean losing badly to Leon Kennedy fair and square.

Kids had a better alternative in "That guy with a gun".
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/14/2008 6:07:17 PM | message detail
Pikachu isn't "a monster in this format", he's just a strong midcarder that got benefit from SFF situations last year. I'd like to see him and Kirby in a 1v1 situation.
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/14/2008 6:14:02 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe (#108)
Pikachu isn't "a monster in this format", he's just a strong midcarder that got benefit from SFF situations last year.

Because Dante and Leon feed off each other so much.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/14/2008 6:22:52 PM | message detail
Kids had a better alternative in "That guy with a gun".

he still isnt a monster.


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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/14/2008 6:23:39 PM | message detail
Tag. Terrible topic intro.
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The Straight Up G
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/14/2008 6:54:01 PM | message detail
I still enjoy how L-Block has brought this contest's predictability back to 2002-levels. Now joke characters are essentially on equal footing as Link and Cloud in terms of who can win the whole shebang.

Sandbag has a tough lot, I don't think he has the strength to make it pass Round 2. L-Block is well known enough from last year to make it to the end. He's gotta have his own fanbase at this point. As for the Cube, he has a pretty easy road to coast on. His first round is against three characters that are bigger jokes than him, both in and outside a contest setting. If he beats that, Round 2's an easy pass, and Round 3 he has a slight chance to squeak by thanks to Mega Man and Zero LFF (which won't be all that much as we know from 2004 or whenever, but it'll still bring MM down a tad), and after that there'd be no stopping him.

Of course, I'm not having Cube past Snake/Mega Man, but with Zero there to sap maybe 5% from Mega Man and considering Cube has a constant mid-20's percentage and what not, it's a remote possibility I'm willing to entertain.

I just don't see why most people are going with Sandbag when Cube has a much better shot, Bonus Poll be damned.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 6:55:38 PM | message detail
I just don't see why most people are going with Sandbag when Cube has a much better shot, Bonus Poll be damned.

Because Cube is a dead meme nobody cares about anymore, that had limited appeal to begin with on the level of Phoenix Wright
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Seginustemple | Posted 9/14/2008 7:14:56 PM | message detail
Doesn't this thing start in a few hours or did I misread it
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 7:15:55 PM | message detail
Doesn't this thing start in a few hours or did I misread it

Starts in 4 days
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 7:18:46 PM | message detail
It could just be that you haven't read it recently.

Starting September 18th, the 128-character winner-take-all tournament will begin.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/14/2008 7:19:17 PM | message detail

Seginustemple (#109)
Doesn't this thing start in a few hours or did I misread it



It was delayed to the 18th, I believe.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/14/2008 7:24:26 PM | message detail
Honestly, the joke overflow is a good thing. I think it will cause a pretty large rift in the whole "Which joke should win it all?" thing.
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Yesmar | Posted 9/14/2008 7:47:01 PM | message detail

I just don't see why most people are going with Sandbag when Cube has a much better shot, Bonus Poll be damned.


Repeated from earlier in this topic:

Some thoughts on WCC, since some of the discussion from the other topic will probably bleed into this one.

L-Block had a static percentage of 29%. Now, WCC's will obviously be much less due to its lack of universality, so I would put it at 25% *at the most*, among reasonable competition*. Would anyone dispute that? Now, even if the other three characters split the vote evenly, WCC would have trouble advancing. However, the other three characters *won't* split the vote evenly. Tails will do a little worse than the others, allowing Tidus and Donkey Kong to pass through.

*This is assuming that Weighted Companion Cube functions along joke percentage lines in the way that L-Block did
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 7:57:11 PM | message detail
I find it interesting that the people that hated L-Block are the ones who come up with the most reasons for joke characters to fail this year.

I still think Mudkip's got a great shot at beating MMX if MMX gets SFFed in the same way Zero and MM get owned by Link. you could see a 40% - 25% - 25% - 10% split there.
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Biolizard28 | Posted 9/14/2008 7:58:29 PM | message detail
transience (#120)
I find it interesting that the people that hated L-Block are the ones who come up with the most reasons for joke characters to fail this year.

It's not like they don't have merit.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 8:01:24 PM | message detail
they really don't.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/14/2008 8:05:34 PM | message detail
Joke characters are going to essentially have the biggest impact on this contest. That's pretty much a fact.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:06:01 PM | message detail
Joke characters are going to essentially have the biggest impact on this contest. That's pretty much a fact.

Like Ike?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:10:40 PM | message detail
Mudkip definitely gets the most LFF help of the joke characters, but if he couldn't overcome Ganondorf/Luigi why should he get past Mario/X? I definitely think 40% is too high for Mario there, and anything extra goes to X. I'd expect that match to be more like 35/29/24/12 or so.
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ChronicYouth | Posted 9/14/2008 8:11:39 PM | message detail
I hated L last year and I still have him winning my bracket.

Pretty sure I'm gonna change it to him going out 2nd round though and screw myself over.

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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:15:37 PM | message detail

Yesmar (#119)

I just don't see why most people are going with Sandbag when Cube has a much better shot, Bonus Poll be damned.


Repeated from earlier in this topic:

Some thoughts on WCC, since some of the discussion from the other topic will probably bleed into this one.

L-Block had a static percentage of 29%. Now, WCC's will obviously be much less due to its lack of universality, so I would put it at 25% *at the most*, among reasonable competition*. Would anyone dispute that? Now, even if the other three characters split the vote evenly, WCC would have trouble advancing. However, the other three characters *won't* split the vote evenly. Tails will do a little worse than the others, allowing Tidus and Donkey Kong to pass through.

*This is assuming that Weighted Companion Cube functions along joke percentage lines in the way that L-Block did


I'm kinda banking on the fact that Cube will do better because not all that many people actually like Tidus, Donkey Kong, or Tails and just vote more for the companies they represent if the alternative stinks. A giant joke character sitting there may absorb a lot of otherwise pity votes the other three would get.

Either way, if Cube wins it has the potential to be one of my most favorite matches in contest history. The other three characters just suck.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:17:22 PM | message detail
No. Tidus sucks.

DK and Tails are just very meh. The Cube however *is* awesome, even if it can't talk.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 8:19:49 PM | message detail
Mudkip definitely gets the most LFF help of the joke characters, but if he couldn't overcome Ganondorf/Luigi why should he get past Mario/X? I definitely think 40% is too high for Mario there, and anything extra goes to X. I'd expect that match to be more like 35/29/24/12 or so.

Ganondorf/Luigi had two things going for them -- a.) they split evenly and b.) they had a weak fourth in Vergil. Mario/MMX will probably not split evenly and Knuckles, should he get there, will take some more percentage than Vergil did. put L in that situation and he may have lost as well. (probably not, though.)
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2008 8:20:43 PM | message detail
I've got L-Block out in the second round and hated it after L started having big-time success...but there's no doubt L-Block will rock the contest if he gets out of R2 (and he very well could). Sandbag has room to surprise, too, and Mudkip's got a distant shot to boot.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 8:20:59 PM | message detail
as for your percentages, look at Crono/Zero and then Link/Crono/Zero and tell me you expect MMX to hold up.

(then again, Zero looked kinda linear in 2005, but then he also got beat by Luigi way easier than he should have, and I don't even want to go into this.)
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:21:20 PM | message detail
DK and Tails are just very meh. The Cube however *is* awesome, even if it can't talk.

Why do you people think every obscure joke character will do well just cuz L Block did? I'd say Cube is lucky if 1% of tetris players have played the game Cube is in. He'll be beaten first round, his meme is dead anyways.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:22:37 PM | message detail
Albion's got a point.

The other jokes don't have nearly the potential voter pool that L has. Mudkip's the only other one I can see having any success because his people seem pretty committed, and we know there's a bunch of them.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 8:23:32 PM | message detail
and as for L, I like the idea of L > Ryu. that'd be something, and it's certainly possible.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 8:24:49 PM | message detail
I hated L last year and I still have him winning my bracket.

Pretty sure I'm gonna change it to him going out 2nd round though and screw myself over.


I think it largely depends on whether or not another joke entrant (Sandbag or Cube) sneaks in from the bottom half of the bracket. With two joke characters vying for votes, it becomes very difficult to not picture Link winning.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2008 8:26:30 PM | message detail
Why do you people think every obscure joke character will do well just cuz L Block did? I'd say Cube is lucky if 1% of tetris players have played the game Cube is in. He'll be beaten first round, his meme is dead anyways.

So ~.97% of the site or less got two characters in the contest and is likely why Gordon smoked Duke in R2 last year...impressive.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 8:27:46 PM | message detail
Why do you people think every obscure joke character will do well just cuz L Block did?

I think many joke entrants have the potential to do well. I base this on the fact that a Tetris block won the last contest.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:28:08 PM | message detail
So ~.97% of the site or less got two characters in the contest and is likely why Gordon smoked Duke in R2 last year...impressive.

Gordon is a legit character who was boosted by Orange Box. But orange box is a year old now, and we've seen how non Nintendo/Square games have lastability in these contests *coughvercetticough*
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ZFS | Posted 9/14/2008 8:28:47 PM | message detail
Agree with what tran said earlier about people coming up with any reason they can to justify the joke characters not doing well. They may not do anything, but when you've got this poll today, the number of 'joke' characters in the contest, and L-Block's run last year - it's more likely they do something than all of them going out early.

Ends up being a better contest if they do go out early, but I'd be surprised if none of them made it to the final. Guess we'll see soon.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:29:13 PM | message detail
I think many joke entrants have the potential to do well. I base this on the fact that a Tetris block won the last contest.

Thats because EVERYONE knows what the L Block was, cuz I'd wager to say Tetris is the most played video game ever.

Does everyone know companion cube, Sandbag, whatever other joke characters? no.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:32:11 PM | message detail
Instead, look at Samus/Mega/Yoshi/Scorpion, figure that Mario is stronger than Samus, Mega ~= X and Yoshi's stronger than either Knux or Zelda, and go from there.

Vergil's a weak fourth, yeah, but compared to Mario and X, Knux or Zelda isn't going to be getting much either. I don't think either of them could manage 15% in a match against 2 NNs and a joke character.

I guess if you think Mario pushes X down by a lot you have a case but I'm not convinced of this. Samus couldn't push classic Mega down and she at least proved herself resistant to SFF by beating Sephiroth with Link in the poll.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2008 8:34:19 PM | message detail
I wouldn't compare Samus to Mario. we've already seen that those two are in a whole different planet there when it comes to Nintendo, especially in regards to 2d roots which is where Mega Man is at.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:38:23 PM | message detail
Samus appears to have hurt Yoshi WRT Mega Man, at least. Yeah, Mario's better at SFF than her, but I don't think he pushes X below 25%, which is pretty much the upper bound for Mudkip. As a bonus, Mario doesn't appear to have SFF'd Zero back in 2005.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:38:39 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsCrono (#140)
I think many joke entrants have the potential to do well. I base this on the fact that a Tetris block won the last contest.

Thats because EVERYONE knows what the L Block was, cuz I'd wager to say Tetris is the most played video game ever.

Does everyone know companion cube, Sandbag, whatever other joke characters? no.


Companion Cube and Sandbag are pretty damn well-known, though. Portal was a popular internet fad and anyone who's played Melee or Brawl knows who Sandbag is.

Though now I'm starting to think the Cube may be at the same level as Phoenix Wright, which, eh... Here's hoping the inanimate object part and the fact that his opponents are pathetic help him to victory.
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/14/2008 8:42:13 PM | message detail
Actually, I wonder if L-Block's run means that other joke characters may not even need the start-up time that L-Block required to become a force to be reckoned with. The Cube would likely need a good round or two before people are sold on him, but Sandbag is recognizable enough that I think he could be strong right out of the gate.

I love these joke characters. They make the contest so much more entertaining.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:42:58 PM | message detail
Cube is no stronger then Phoenix Wright. Thats his cap imo. Even in the bonus match he sucked last year, and that was at the peak of its popularity.

Sandbag has a chance to win a match yes, but he won't advance past round 2 with Auron and Sonic there. Sandbag is the closest to L Block in the contest, but its too early for his momentium in round 2, plus it still doesnt have the popularity of L Block.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 8:43:09 PM | message detail
Thats because EVERYONE knows what the L Block was, cuz I'd wager to say Tetris is the most played video game ever.

Does everyone know companion cube, Sandbag, whatever other joke characters? no.


Again, I think you're reaching. L-Block went from losing to Kirby and Kratos to handing Link his worst loss ever in the span of a single contest. If everyone always knew who L-Block was, why didn't he crush Kirby, Kratos, and Snake from the very beginning? Block's meteoric rise had very little to do with his game's recognizability and everythingto do with his being a funny joke that kept picking up steam. Why should that be exclusive to Tetris, especially when Sandbag's series is nearly as played and far more popular?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/14/2008 8:45:39 PM | message detail
If everyone always knew who L-Block was, why didn't he crush Kirby, Kratos, and Snake from the very beginning?

Cuz it was a funny joke that was being promoted everywhere from wow forums (I saw a couple topics there) to ESPN forums (I saw a topic there). He only did well because of word of mouth and gamefaq users all jumping on his bandwagon for the lulz
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 9/14/2008 8:47:14 PM | message detail
And Tetris has anything to do with that?
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Yesmar | Posted 9/14/2008 8:51:03 PM | message detail
I'm kinda banking on the fact that Cube will do better because not all that many people actually like Tidus, Donkey Kong, or Tails and just vote more for the companies they represent if the alternative stinks

But people do like these characters; they aren't unknown entities. Tidus and Donkey Kong have proved time and time again that people will vote for them, and that they are solid midcarders. I think you're just projecting your own personal preferences onto the voting pool as a whole.

as for your percentages, look at Crono/Zero and then Link/Crono/Zero and tell me you expect MMX to hold up.

There is a lot of evidence that implies that the 4th place finisher in this format does a lot worse statistically. Look at Ryu Cloud/Samus/Mega Man/Ryu.
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