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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 562

Xuxon | Posted 9/12/2008 5:38:43 PM | message detail
you can't even get mewtwo until after you beat the game.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2008 5:40:38 PM | message detail
More people have played Melee than Brawl.

prove it. at least melee owning brawl by a considerable amount.

Despite that, Marth's performance last year >>>>>>>>>> Ike's performance last year.

yes, of course seeing how it was pre-brawl.

his Smash strength is going to be sapped by a more popular character

baseless assumption... this is actually what you're arguing. >_>
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
trannyscience | Posted 9/12/2008 5:41:10 PM | message detail
damn it we're over Marth vs. Ike
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2008 5:44:40 PM | message detail
If he's analogous to Mewtwo (I guess that makes sense, given Brawl), is a fourth gen version of Mewtwo going to be anywhere near as strong as the original? Maybe I'm wrong, but it always seemed to me that Pokemon was most popular during the R/B days, and, indeed, the rat and Mewtwo are the strongest Pokes around. Bidoof and 2nd round Mudkip had very jokey patterns, so I'm not sold on their strength coming from Pokemon, either.

I still think Marth wins the Smash split by a lot, and I don't, or at least I didn't, think that Lucario had much of an independent fanbase.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/12/2008 5:48:00 PM | message detail
I thought a lot of Mewtwo had to do with that movie. it's had what, ten years to sink in? high schoolers watched that when they were kids.

who watches Pokemon movies today? I heard this was a straight-to-DVD release over here, and while it's apparently good and gets played on cartoon network or whatever, I have to wonder about its impact.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3227
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xyzzy
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2008 5:58:07 PM | message detail
it's possible a good portion of mewtwo's vote is because of the movie but i honestly think most of his appeal is just who he is in the series in general.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2008 6:00:32 PM | message detail
Only thing you need to know about Lucario is that he's a popular Pokemon.

Seriously, they stick out like a sore thumb in this format.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2008 6:03:37 PM | message detail
damn it we're over Marth vs. Ike

I'm sure not!

*still thinks Marth>Ike is a very stupid pick but is willing to let the arguments slide if we can get back to Zack Fair*

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
ZFS | Posted 9/12/2008 6:21:38 PM | message detail
did someone say zack

soon

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let's mosey
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/12/2008 7:53:26 PM | message detail
....people think Marth can beat Ike? You're pretty much banking on Marth's SSBM fanbase putting him over Ike's Brawl fanbase, which I don't think makes any sense. Ike's casual following (which I think makes more of a difference in polls than competitive people) in Brawl is bat**** massive. Everyone who's ever done a With Anyone online match knows this.

~*ST*~
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XxSoulxX | Posted 9/12/2008 8:01:06 PM | message detail
You're pretty much banking on Marth's SSBM fanbase putting him over Ike's Brawl fanbase, which I don't think makes any sense.

No, you're banking on Marth's SSBM and SSBB fanbase over Ike's Brawl fanbase.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2008 8:09:47 PM | message detail
MarioSuperstar
Posted 9/12/2008 8:40:38 PM
message detail
#252 More people have played Melee than Brawl.

prove it. at least melee owning brawl by a considerable amount.

Despite that, Marth's performance last year >>>>>>>>>> Ike's performance last year.

yes, of course seeing how it was pre-brawl.

his Smash strength is going to be sapped by a more popular character

baseless assumption... this is actually what you're arguing. >_>


Dude, Melee has been out for what... 6 years? There's no way in hell more people have played Brawl. And I don't think you realize just how bad Ike did last year. He lost to Duke Nukem as the sole Nintendo character against 3 PC characters, and by a good margin. And this was after the Brawl announcement that let Snake beat the crap out of Mega Man and Sonic. Ike was far below the fodderline last year, and as Captain Falcon showed us, you can't rely on Smash to put you above the fodderline.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2008 8:11:49 PM | message detail
And Marth is basically the Ike of Melee, and he also has a Brawl following even if it isn't as big. Ike may be the more popular character in Brawl, but Marth was the casual favourite in the far more exposed Melee, and he is still in Brawl to boot. Not to mention Marth doesn't have that lame "I fight for my friends" lame, cliche kiddy crap.
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/12/2008 8:21:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, I hate agreeing with Turtle, but I can't see a way how Ike would beat Marth in a 1 on 1 match, unless you think Brawl is much more popular then Melee.
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Big Bob | Posted 9/12/2008 8:29:53 PM | message detail
As long as we're assuming Brawl is the end-all...

Meta Knight > Ryu let's do this
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2008 8:30:46 PM | message detail
You're insane if you don't think that the Brawl/Melee fanbase overlap heavily while also giving Ike the clear edge in popularity.

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2008 8:32:19 PM | message detail
The boost the smash series gives to their characters is about the same, characters gets more or less the same strength. You seem to be forgetting the Brawl was the most hyped game on GameFAQs even the few melee fans that don't own brawl at least know what characters are in Brawl. Also Ike his two Fire Emblem games to draw strength from, which isn't much, but that's the reason why I give Ike the edge over Marth indirectly.

On a one vs one, all bets are off and it'll all depend on which character smash fans perfer more.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2008 8:35:14 PM | message detail
*has his two fire emblem games...
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2008 8:43:55 PM | message detail
Dude, Melee has been out for what... 6 years? There's no way in hell more people have played Brawl.
well 35% of the site havent played brawl as of march. i doubt they're very far apart now in playability.

And I don't think you realize just how bad Ike did last year. He lost to Duke Nukem as the sole Nintendo character against 3 PC characters, and by a good margin. And this was after the Brawl announcement

he was only announced on the site; the game wasnt released. you cant hold that against Ike forever.

you dont really have anything concrete besides an Ike on the internet. if anything, that should give Marth the willies already. I doubt Marth is far from Falcon himself..
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2008 8:48:19 PM | message detail
Gordon also lost to Duke in that match.

And being announced for Brawl on a website means almost nothing.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)
LegendaryRaiden | Posted 9/12/2008 8:57:11 PM | message detail
Lopen is that you

Cecil over Zack round 1 don't put this terrible train in my yard
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Ngamer64 | Posted 9/12/2008 9:04:38 PM | message detail
Is it being suggested that Melee's extra years of availability give it a significantly higher playrate on this site? If so, I've got sour news for you, Jack.

Do you own Super Smash Bros. Melee?
Yes, and I've played it with 3 others at once 54.43% 38337
Yes, but I've never played with all 4 10.83% 7631
No, but I used to 6.62% 4663
No, it's not my kind of game 7.57% 5334
No, I never owned a GameCube 20.54% 14467
TOTAL VOTES 70432

Do you plan to buy Super Smash Bros. Brawl?
Yes, I'll be buying the import this week 2.44% 2555
Yes, I can wait for the US release 50.26% 52624
Yes, but I'll wait for the PAL release 7.57% 7922
Maybe, I'll wait and see what the reviews are like 6.16% 6449
No, I don't even own a Wii 33.57% 35148
TOTAL VOTES 104698

Can't say for certain how many of those "maybes" ended up picking up the game, but if it was most (which seems likely given Brawl's excellent reviews), the numbers between the two games are already very comparable, 6 year advantage or not.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
LegendaryRaiden | Posted 9/12/2008 9:08:54 PM | message detail
~60%-66% vs ~72%. I suppose it's not a huge gap, but it's more than a trivial one. I don't think most were calling for a huge gap. Plus there's probably not complete overlap. In any case, I'd still probably say Melee helps more than those Ike FE games.
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Did you say nerd? - Raiden
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Big Bob | Posted 9/12/2008 9:14:52 PM | message detail
Who else is shocked that "There's a contest?!" isn't winning the poll for once?
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/12/2008 9:17:11 PM | message detail
With about 53% currently saying they're going to sit out this Contest, it certainly LOOKS as though anticipation is low for this new bracket. But if you take a closer look at the numbers, you'll see that according to this final-day to enter poll,

32.87% of the site submitted a bracket in 2006.

30.38% of the site submitted a bracket in 2007.

33.44 of the site is going to submit a bracket this year, if the current results hold. Which they almost certainly won't, but still, I doubt anticipation falls too much under the bar set by '07, if it does at all.

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/12/2008 9:47:28 PM | message detail
Bob is right; the "What Contest?!" option won this poll every single season from 2002 through the Character Battle in '05.

If anyone would like to take a closer look at this subject, I have all the Contests ranked according to how "anticipated" they were based on this pre-season interest poll. The results... may surprise you!

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Most_Anticipated_Contests

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He isn't a killer. He just wins - thoroughly.
ZFS | Posted 9/12/2008 9:58:18 PM | message detail
You can tell we've got nothin' left to argue when Marth/Ike goes on for a couple of pages.

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let's mosey
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/12/2008 9:59:18 PM | message detail
hey guys

Banjo
Jak
Ratchet
Crash Banicoot


who wins
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transience | Posted 9/12/2008 10:00:04 PM | message detail
five more days
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
therealmnm | Posted 9/12/2008 11:12:11 PM | message detail
I'm surprised nobody said that alongside Mewtwo is pretty much the strongest Pokemon out of Gen 1. That is probably the biggest source of his popularity onside of the movie. You gain Mewtwo at Level 70 and Psychic Pokemon are already imbalanced as hell in that game. Sporting a Mewtwo was easily a casual favorite thing to do. That was why he was popular in the first place... then the movie came out. I don't think Lucario has the advantage of being the strongest Pokemon in the game that Mewtwo did...
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/12/2008 11:13:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mewtwo is the ultimate Pokemon. The coolest, strongest guy around. Lucario doesn't have that stuff going for him.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2008 12:12:46 AM | message detail
So, uh... what's Mudkip's chances of winning this thing if he gets over MMX?
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/13/2008 12:22:15 AM | message detail
Mudkip will score 23ish % in any match he's involved in, so he'll never actually win a match, just maybe get second.
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For your health.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/13/2008 12:25:30 AM | message detail
I just switched to Cloud > Yoshi for my division finals match there. It had been Cloud > Mewtwo for a while, but Yoshi is more legit than him and I've actually switched to Yoshi > Squall because I feel Fox will leech less off Yoshi than Sora will off of Squall.

If I get this wrong I'm going to be mad, because historically I've gotten ****ed over for doubting Yoshi.

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/13/2008 12:36:22 AM | message detail
With about 53% currently saying they're going to sit out this Contest

I say that this is mostly to blame due to all of the users that just recently discovered the site. From what I think, around half (or more) of the votes in any poll are coming from users who just stumbled upon GameFAQs (via a search engine usually) and voted in the poll without an account. It is these users who are voting on the 4th option (not entering the contest) since you need an account to enter the contest.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2008 1:03:30 AM | message detail
Since there was a lot of Ike / Marth talk recently, how well do you guys think Roy would do? I know he's not as popular as Marth in the competitive scene, but I figure he's probably more popular than Marth with the casuals.
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sig
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/13/2008 1:19:21 AM | message detail
Roy would be the weakest of the bunch for sure. He's not even in Brawl.
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, Steve!
Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2008 1:27:27 AM | message detail
Yeah, he's probably the weakest since he missed out on Brawl. But he might be close to Marth Pre-Brawl. Just want to see what others think.
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The_Doom_Dealer | Posted 9/13/2008 4:23:42 AM | message detail
So, why is it popular choice to put Tidus > Donkey Kong? Doesn't this remind anyone of Pikachu > Tidus last year?

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greatone10 | Posted 9/13/2008 4:43:56 AM | message detail
Because it's freaking Donkey Kong. Nothing more really needs to be said, and I have DK winning in the first round.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/13/2008 6:17:13 AM | message detail
So, why is it popular choice to put Tidus > Donkey Kong? Doesn't this remind anyone of Pikachu > Tidus last year?

This my anylize of that match: Tidus, DK or Tails winning a poll? No way that's going to happen! The Cube will win that match advance to the division finals with the blue bomber!

And I haven't even played Portal >_>

I also wish that Allen would close the bracket and start the contest already, ever since I got FFIVDS I want to have Cecil making out of the division and Kain + Rydia in round 2.....

Damn what an awesome game.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2008 6:52:44 AM | message detail
charmander6000
Posted 9/12/2008 11:32:19 PM
message detail
#267 The boost the smash series gives to their characters is about the same, characters gets more or less the same strength. You seem to be forgetting the Brawl was the most hyped game on GameFAQs even the few melee fans that don't own brawl at least know what characters are in Brawl. Also Ike his two Fire Emblem games to draw strength from, which isn't much, but that's the reason why I give Ike the edge over Marth indirectly.

On a one vs one, all bets are off and it'll all depend on which character smash fans perfer more.


I still don't see how you feel Ike is significantly more popular than Ike with such certainty. Marth has all the numbers behind him. All Ike has is "lulz the noobs like him" which you can say about Marth in Melee.

And Melee being 6 years old means that it has had exposure to way more people than Brawl does, whether it was people who owned the game, or people playing on their friend's copy, there is no possible way there have been even remotely near the same amount of people that have played Brawl as Melee.

As for Roy, he'd probably be the weakest of the bunch due the fact that he was secret and not in Brawl at all.

Really, saying Ike > Marth is like saying.... Peach > Mewtwo or something equally stupid.

And Tidus > Donkey Kong is a smart pick. Remember, in a close match, always bet against DK.
Midget_Fetish | Posted 9/13/2008 6:59:56 AM | message detail
Except...the casual melee players didn't pick Marth, they picked Roy...
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The more I learn, the more I realize I don't know anything at all.
Xuxon | Posted 9/13/2008 7:02:50 AM | message detail
marth's forward smash was just stupid in melee. basically everyone i knew who was bad used him and spammed it.
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DQVIII LLG - level 1/6/10/19, before Captain Crow
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M_e_g_a_6_4 | Posted 9/13/2008 7:06:25 AM | message detail
Tidus/DK/Tails/Cube will be the funniest match ever. Three notable chokejobs versus a joke character with potential strength. Should be a blast.
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i got nuthin
voltch | Posted 9/13/2008 7:09:23 AM | message detail
wth at today's poll,this is a disgrace.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2008 7:18:51 AM | message detail
I think it's safe to say that of the 3, DK is the biggest choke. I'm more worried about Tails beating him than him beating Tidus
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2008 7:21:56 AM | message detail
his Smash strength is going to be sapped by a more popular character

baseless assumption... this is actually what you're arguing. >_>


I was saying it's useless to argue about Ike because Pikachu is going to beat him into the ground. It doesn't matter if Ike is stronger or weaker than Marth, he isn't getting out of round 1.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/13/2008 7:32:24 AM | message detail
Tag
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transience | Posted 9/13/2008 7:33:10 AM | message detail
so, about Marth vs. Zack
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai
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