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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 561

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 7:37:54 PM | message detail

Dante (2006c) VS Dante (2005c)

Dante has a strength of 36.43.
Dante has a strength of 32.73.

Dante wins with 55.08% of the vote!
A win of 11,800 with 116,185 total votes cast.

And that doesn't take into account Samus/Snake weirdness. Something is seriously off here. How about this:

Ryu Hayabusa (2006c) VS Ryu Hayabusa (2005c)

Ryu Hayabusa has a strength of 25.36.
Ryu Hayabusa has a strength of 23.75.

Ryu Hayabusa wins with 53.17% of the vote!
A win of 6,747 with 106,269 total votes cast.

Not as big, but he had less reason to boost as well. So if we assume that 2k5 Dante = 2k5 Zero, and give Dante a nice 2% or so boost for his troubles, where would that put Yoshi in relation to everyone else? Still comfortably below pre-AC/DoC Vincent and worth probably 40% on 2k6 Snake.

Where am I going with this? Yoshi and Squall share a half-division this year, and both have characters from their companies dragging them down. A lot of people are giving the second round fight to Yoshi, when Squall should probably be the statistical favourite, especially given how well he did against Snoic with Sora in the poll last year. Does this mean Squall boosted to hell from KH2? Or can we attribute that to Sonic's downward spiral? Funny, since that match occured AFTER the Brawl announcement.

This even raises questions for the third round, although I think it's pretty safe to say that Cloud will beat him into the ground. But still, maybe we'll see some sort of freaky KH2 rSFF from Squall, or see Mewtwo tear Yoshi a new corn chute.

Yes, this is my crazy stats for this contest. I was already proven right about the whole Mega Man being constant thing, maybe I'm on to something again?

ZFS | Posted 9/8/2008 7:45:14 PM | message detail

But still, maybe we'll see some sort of freaky KH2 rSFF from Squall,

Not on Cloud.

RPGuy96 | Posted 9/8/2008 7:48:26 PM | message detail

Cloud will be hurt a bit from LFF with Squall around, it just won't matter because he'll destroy everybody anyway.
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Mustache...and green...

ZFS | Posted 9/8/2008 7:49:12 PM | message detail

That said, Squall over Yoshi isn't a bad bet for round 2. But thinking about Squall over Yoshi in round 3 is asking for trouble. Mewtwo's going to see that Yoshi's brought down a peg, but it won't be comparable to what Cloud's gonna do to Squall. We've seen that one before.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 8:01:07 PM | message detail

That's why I'm not taking it. But still, we saw Cloud/Squall in what.... 2004? Squall HAS come a long way since then.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 8:02:44 PM | message detail

Also funny how once again we won't get a reliable read on Yoshi. Unless you want to quantify Dante's boost by using a constant Ryu H, which isn't really a bad idea.

XxSoulxX | Posted 9/8/2008 8:05:17 PM | message detail

We won't get a reliable read on Fox either argh argh argh why is it always him every year???

Although, I guess you can just peg Fox's first round performance on Sora and go from there. Same with Yoshi using Squall. Of course, we won't know if Sora/Squall went up from last year or not, but it's unlikely.
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Yesmar | Posted 9/8/2008 8:39:22 PM | message detail

Maybe this is just another crazy BT theory, but the more I think about it, the more I feel Yoshi was hugely overrated against Solid **** (hell, if it can overrate Mario 1 Bowser, basically a green turd, it should do much better for the more photogenic Yoshi) which also overrates Riku, Dante, Yoshi and Ryu. I can't see Dante being too far off from Zero, especially last year after Zero redeemed himself and Link showed that 2k5 and 2k6 were SFF beat-downs. Meaning that Yoshi and Dante are closer to that Zero/Luigi/Kirby group than to the Squaurondorf elites.

I've totally been thinking something like this for a while. Pretty much all of the Mario characters appeared to drop back to near 2003 levels in 2006*, once you take into account how inflated the X-Stats are that year. By that logic, Yoshi shouldn't have come anywhere close to Dante, but yet he did. Him staying at his "Nintendo boost" popularity doesn't make much sense since it doesn't appear as if any of his compatriots except for Mario have. My only explanation for this was that either Dante's performance in 2005 was a fluke or that his match against Yoshi was one. This also gives Riku a much more reasonable KH2 boost considering *KH2 SPOILERS as is my understanding, he's not even really in the game.*END SPOILERS*

That being said, the reason Dante Ryu H. seem so much higher in the X-Stats is pretty much because of Solid ****.

*Actually when you compare 2003/2004/2005 numbers with what we know now the "Nintendo Boost" was really more of a Mario + possibly Kirby boost. The Zelda characters boosted a little, but not anything like the others. Link's 2004 boost was bigger than what he got in 2005, for example.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt

PiGuy96 | Posted 9/8/2008 8:50:49 PM | message detail

Pretty much all of the Mario characters appeared to drop back to near 2003 levels in 2006*

Eh? Bowser didn't look so hot, but Yoshi beat Dante and Luigi had a great run through Zero and Kirby. Even if Yoshi is overrated some through Sprite Snake (probably, it's rather unlikely he's equal to Squall/Vincent), that's still probably better off than he was in 2k3 and 2k4. And Luigi is obviously still stronger than the bad old days of 40% on Squall and 45% on Yoshi.
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Blarg

PiGuy96 | Posted 9/8/2008 8:54:33 PM | message detail

Also
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=6&pos=66

That's not the best Bowser in the world, but it's definitely recognizable as the Koopa King. Certainly not some "green turd."
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Blarg

Yesmar | Posted 9/8/2008 9:22:27 PM | message detail

Eh? Bowser didn't look so hot, but Yoshi beat Dante and Luigi had a great run through Zero and Kirby. Even if Yoshi is overrated some through Sprite Snake (probably, it's rather unlikely he's equal to Squall/Vincent), that's still probably better off than he was in 2k3 and 2k4. And Luigi is obviously still stronger than the bad old days of 40% on Squall and 45% on Yoshi.

Luigi's performance on Zero was impressive, but I don't think his other performances hold up as well. Luigi would have most likely beaten Kirby in 2003 as well, we just underrated Squall at the time so we didn't realize it. And getting 40% on Squall isn't really all that much weaker than getting 40% on Sonic. A Sonic who is admittedly stronger than 2003 Squall, but not by all that much, in my opinion.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt

PiGuy96 | Posted 9/8/2008 9:31:58 PM | message detail

HaRRicH | Posted 9/8/2008 9:49:37 PM | message detail

...I thought we had already agreed that Solid/Yoshi was messed up not only because of the sprite round but also on the whole Nintendo-icon-VS-Nintendo-hype idea that we often put on Samus/Solid. That's a double whammy and I think we've decided before they're over-rated because of that.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 10:39:29 PM | message detail

You don't even need to add the second part to see that they were overrated. There's plenty wrong with just the male side involving those under Yoshi. Yoshi over Squall, Dante being at Squall's level for no apparent reason seeing as the year before through Vincent that he clearly wasn't and it being post-KH2. Riku over Bowser, Luigi, and Ryu...
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Yesmar | Posted 9/8/2008 10:50:36 PM | message detail

Really? I do not agree that Luigi would have beaten Kirby in 2k3; we saw Squall/Kirby in 2k4 and Kirby did quite a bit better. You're also saying that 2k6 Sonic, the Sonic that edged out Crono and cleanly beat Vincent, isn't that much stronger than a Squall who put up 40% on Samus? Granted, I expected better out of Luigi against Sonic after his first two rounds, but at the time I didn't expect Sonic to be stronger in 2k6 either.

If you adjust Luigi based on Squall's 2005 ranking, he actually does rank above Kirby in 2003. And really close to Yoshi too. I guess Ceej knew what he was talking about when he set that match up. I really don't have any explanation as to what happened to Squall in 2004 though. His performances on both Bomberman and Kirby were very underwhelming based on what we know now.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt

Yesmar | Posted 9/8/2008 10:51:54 PM | message detail

I should point out that I do think that Luigi is more popular than he was in 2003, just not as high as the 2006 stats imply.
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 11:33:30 PM | message detail

Simple enough. 2004 saw basically all the GameFAQs fanboy wet dream characters do well thanks to low votals. That means Square characters aside from Cloud/Seph and of course, Squall.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 11:38:20 PM | message detail

And I think Luigi's performance in 2006 was legit for the most part. I still strongly feel that he only beat Zero due to some weird Mega Man/Nintendo relationship, but him beating Kirby wasn't too surprising given how overrated the puff ball was in 2005.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2008 3:56:46 AM | message detail

so if you think Zero only lost to Luigi because he was SFF'd, you'd take him over somebody like Dante or Tifa?
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Explicit Contest is my lord.

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2008 6:26:46 AM | message detail

I should point out that I do think that Luigi is more popular than he was in 2003, just not as high as the 2006 stats imply.

Not sure why not. He did pretty much what he was expected to do on Sonic based on the 2005 stats. The difference is negligible at best.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi

HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2008 6:50:22 AM | message detail

Yeah, in fact, if you don't judge Luigi by his match with Sonic, both Kirby and Zero imply he boosted...and he would have had reason to boost since NSMB came out earlier that year. Call Kirby-25 over-rated if you like, but Luigi beat Kirby worse than Bowser did; that means Solid/Bowser came after and Bowser/Ryu doesn't matter, so you can't really call Kirby over-rated in that comparison.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

Yesmar | Posted 9/9/2008 7:13:07 AM | message detail

Not sure why not. He did pretty much what he was expected to do on Sonic based on the 2005 stats. The difference is negligible at best.

Weren't we just having an argument about Ganondorf a month ago where you claimed that the X-Stats for 2006 were messed up and overrated him? I'm agreeing with you now!
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You need to meet someone at a garden, or a movie or something. Somewhere classy. Like a cooking recipe message board or something.--True Godhand/Curt

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2008 7:27:16 AM | message detail

I never said that about Ganondorf. I don't have a problem with his side of the bracket. It's Mega Man's side that seems inconsistent.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi

transience | Posted 9/9/2008 7:28:16 AM | message detail

if Leonhart can find a way to trash Ganondorf, he will! just like HRRH will soon tie this all in with Ness within seven posts.
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xyzzy
"Man...tranny gets bored, the rest of us suffer." -satai

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2008 7:29:04 AM | message detail

Actually, 2006 Ganondorf is the one Ganondorf I have no problem with because he didn't win anything!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi

HotManGravy | Posted 9/9/2008 7:31:58 AM | message detail

i thought he won the contest that year

or was that heroic mario

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Feeding the children since 1979.

HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2008 7:33:11 AM | message detail

Ganondorf, like Ness, blew great opportunities.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

swirIdude | Posted 9/9/2008 8:34:45 AM | message detail

Interrupting this train of thought to point out the awesome Rydia pic used in the mock match pics.
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voltch | Posted 9/9/2008 8:40:37 AM | message detail

If the stats overrate Ganondorf,then one on one what happens between Ganon vs Squall?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2008 9:32:57 AM | message detail

I've always felt that Squall/Vincent were a clear step above Ganondorf after 2005, and I'd go so far as to say Squall = Vincent.

Ganondorf wasn't overrated, he just had a great year in 2005 thanks to the VC, same with Bowser. 40% on Sephiroth legit? Hell no, but if we run him through 2006 Vincent, it seems like that's where he should be.

MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/9/2008 11:28:34 AM | message detail

consolefreak | Posted 9/9/2008 11:32:54 AM | message detail

What do you guys think of this happening:
Cloud>Sora>Squall>Mewtwo

I mean as in their previous match Cloud SFF the **** out of Squall. I don't think he'll be able to do that from Sora really nearly as much as Squall obviously. I have this in my bracket right now and I have a lot of faith in it. What do yall think?

That is seriously not happening. Cloud SFFs Squall more than Sora, sure, but both Cloud AND Squall SFF Sora. I think you're severely underestimating Mewtwo here, who should be a very clear favourite for that second spot.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/9/2008 11:33:27 AM | message detail

Aerith/Sora was a long time ago, but I'd be pretty confident that Cloud can manhandle Sora just as much as he can Squall. Besides, it seems unlikely that Yoshi fails to make it through a split Squall/Sora when he's probably as strong as Sora 1v1.
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Mustache...and green...

consolefreak | Posted 9/9/2008 11:40:28 AM | message detail

^ Urgh I totally forgot about that, man hate these 4-ways. I really don't care about the bracket much.

Yeah, Sora isn't even getting there. Cloud > Yoshi confirmed.
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CB2k8 : 0/0. Today : Wario > Zack. Tomorrow : Link > Shadow

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2008 12:12:56 PM | message detail

40% on Sephiroth legit? Hell no, but if we run him through 2006 Vincent, it seems like that's where he should be.

.. which isn't 40% on Sephiroth at all still.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.

HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2008 1:26:47 PM | message detail

Ngamer brought up an interesting situation in KP's pic-topic: would you feel more confident in Pac-Man against Ness if he got...

A) ...his colorful 3D-pic like what he had against Ocelot ( http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/3742/piccnackmannc1.jpg )?
B) ...a classic 2D-sprite that you see in his original games ( http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/3010/pacmangc7.png )?
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2008 1:33:31 PM | message detail

Besides, it seems unlikely that Yoshi fails to make it through a split Squall/Sora when he's probably as strong as Sora 1v1.

Well, it's not like Yoshi is going to get through unscathed with Fox there. Just he'll be hurt less than Sora because he's the stronger than Fox, while Squall is stronger than Sora.

And while Cloud will likely hurt Squall more than Sora, he'll still hurt Sora, and Squall will hurt him, too. I don't think Sora would avoid last place there.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi

RPGuy96 | Posted 9/9/2008 1:36:31 PM | message detail

Whoops, I sort of forgot about Fox there. Still, I think Sora's operating at a disadvantage based on the reasons you gave.
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Mustache...and green...

KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2008 1:37:24 PM | message detail

I would think that the arcade-style Pac-man pic gives him the advantage.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2008 1:38:52 PM | message detail

I don't know if it really matters for Pac-Man. Seriously, who is going to mistake him for someone else?
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2008 1:39:36 PM | message detail

A, because most Ness pics are what he looks like from a Smash Bros game, AKA 3D
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2008 1:42:11 PM | message detail

I don't know if it really matters for Pac-Man. Seriously, who is going to mistake him for someone else?

It's not about recognizability, it's about the psychological factor.

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Brawl FC: 4296-2658-3681 (KP)

HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2008 1:42:23 PM | message detail

I'm starting to fear Sora beating Yoshi more nowadays, though I'm sticking with Squall > Yoshi at this point...but if Sora does beat Yoshi, let there be no mistake Sora takes last in Cloud/Mewtwo/Squall/Sora. We've seen Cloud destroy Squall and Squall SFF Sora, there is no doubt Cloud would SFF Sora similarly bad if not worse, and both Cloud and Squall are in the KH games to ensure it's bad. Throw in that FF7 and arguably FF8 are bigger than any KH game, and Sora doesn't get ANY breathing room there. Sora doesn't even get the small benefit of KH:CoM because of Mewtwo in the poll.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

Ngamer64 | Posted 9/9/2008 1:43:31 PM | message detail

To explain my reasoning on the Pac-Man thing a little...

Expected pic: http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/4987/24thmatchqi1.png

The colorful 3D version is still a good pic, and certainly gave him the advantage over drab Old Man Winter in the Ocelot match, but I feel that Pac more than anyone trades on his icon status, and he's going to need every bit of help he can muster in this one. With that in mind, if he can pull a pellet-eating 2D sprite, I think the fond memories it would bring up would be enough to get him past Ness. Unfortunately I'm imagining SB will consider that a sprite and only fit for the 3rd round, so I'm still backing Ness > 3D Pac until I see otherwise.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/9/2008 1:48:44 PM | message detail

I think Pac-Man still has the picture advantage if that's the pic. Ness isn't really that photogenic anyway, and that Mewtwo is grainy. Also, it's not like Travis Touchdown is going to do that much anyway (unless he pulls an Ammy in taking advantage of LFF, heh).
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2008 2:28:23 PM | message detail

How does 3-D Pac Man make a difference?

He's freaking Pac-Man. You either know him or you don't.

HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2008 3:11:15 PM | message detail

It's all about triggering emotions for Pac-Man, not being recognizable. Do you think people are more attached to him because he's an icon, because his old games were fun, or because his new games are fun? If you guessed either/both of the first two options, you would be on the right track and an old-school pic is more likely to trigger those emotions. If you guessed because of his new games, Pac-Man never would have become popular...

...it may or may not mean much, but it's been proven to have an effect on characters like Solid who isn't known for his 2D-games. Pac-Man's still recognizable, but it's all about emotional recall.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

HotManGravy | Posted 9/9/2008 3:17:08 PM | message detail

but it's been proven to have an effect on characters like Solid who isn't known for his 2D-games

...except that's about recognizability. I really don't think you can draw that connection.

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Feeding the children since 1979.

HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2008 4:09:36 PM | message detail

Well, for a more specific non-reversed example, let's try Kefka. It seems like Kefka's sprite would trigger more of a response from FF3/6 fans than his 3D-headshots do. The Villain Contest would arguably support this since Mithos outdid Wesker by ~6.5% while changing from his 3D-clown face to Angel Kefka. I'll grant you that it's the VC so it may not be worth a whole lot, but that's the only time we've seen Kefka in action with a sprite and he decimated.

We've never seen Pac-Man with a sprite before; the closest we've been to it was when he faced Scorpion in 2k2...

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=5&pos=52

...which was in the background and is largely blocked out by 3D-Pac. Throw 2D-Pac with some pellets, and we may see a new side of Pac-Man in a debated match.
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NRT winners: Pokemon R/B/Y, Star Fox 64, Donkey Kong Country 2
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=44623118

therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2008 4:15:07 PM | message detail

You don't really need a 2D sprite of Pac-Man to trigger nostalgia to the old game. The 3D picture of him does the same thing. I mean, what else do people think of when they see Pac-Man? It's not like he has some other game that brings him all his fame. What, the PS2 games? Even now, I'm sure most people know Pac-Man for the original arcade game and re-releases of it.
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X

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