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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 561

Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2008 2:37:03 PM | message detail
Vivi would've killed that chipmunk without Meg Ryan and we all know it
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turnturnturn your brain in
turnturnturn your brain in
transience | Posted 9/8/2008 2:40:45 PM | message detail
I just checked out those SF1 sprites - he's still plenty recognizable, and I don't think it hurt him. the first one is good old sprite Snake anyway so it's hard to tell.
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HotManGravy | Posted 9/8/2008 2:41:31 PM | message detail
I argued for some overlap the day before the match, but I never expected it to be anything like what happened. Leon and Dante sharing more of a fanbase than Tidus and Vivi by far? huh?

exactly... before the match there were quite a few people talking about potential overlap, and while I bought it to some extent, there was no way in hell I was buying it being on the same level of Vivi and his girlfriend. I'm gonna go ahead and buy into the "Pika just stood out like a sore thumb" theory and go about my merry way. I mean he was against three capcom characters, even if they all feature pretty different gameplay styles. There's no way I'm not taking Dante to finish first... let's put it that way. I'm pretty confused when it comes to Riku/Leon, but I'll probably end up siding with Riku, just for how damn impressive he's looked of late.

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Feeding the children since 1979.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 3:36:37 PM | message detail
it's just a couple of days. no big deal there.

Well, when the bracket's been debated to death and the prediction period has been too long as it stood, it's just one more nail in the coffin for the PS3.
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 3:39:44 PM | message detail
Well, I can safely skip the last 3 pages of discussion, since neither Ike nor Ness will be in the second round. It seems pointless to discuss their strengths.

I'd expect Arthas to give Ike a fight 1 on 1, especially with his own WoW expansion right around the corner. Ike lost to Duke Nukem last year. To think that Brawl would put him over midcard range is ludicrous, especially since Duke and Gordon were likely affecting eachother.

And Ness has a shot in his match, though Pac is a very sexy upset pick, and the Pac has not let me down in the past (Pac > Ocelot baybay)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 3:43:24 PM | message detail
Is there even any room left on that coffin?

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 3:44:21 PM | message detail
The coffin is actually a giant nail being pierced into the heart of the earth.

Thanks Sony for killing our planet
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2008 4:00:38 PM | message detail
To think that Brawl would put him over midcard range is ludicrous, especially since Duke and Gordon were likely affecting eachother.

well it's not like Arthas would be higher than Diablo. I'd take Ike one on one easily.
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*is Dranze*
Explicit Contest is my lord.
Biolizard28 | Posted 9/8/2008 4:03:57 PM | message detail
Casuals like Duke Nukem because he's a badass with sunglasses and a gun. The only reason he did well in his match was solely for the picture. Ever wonder why he sucked it up in round 2? He had fellow badass Sub-Zero doing some sapping. I honestly believe this.
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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:06:57 PM | message detail
Why do people keep incinuating Diablo is weak or something. "It's not like Arthas could be above Diablo"... well no kidding, and he doesn't need to be excepting a huge Brawl boost considering who Ike was struggling with.
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HotManGravy | Posted 9/8/2008 4:07:40 PM | message detail
diablo is pathetic and ridley would wipe the floor with him, shutup lopen
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Feeding the children since 1979.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 4:09:06 PM | message detail
Considering how badly Thrall did, I have doubts to Blizzard characters in this format anyway.

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therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 4:10:38 PM | message detail
I dunno, DMC/RE overlap has always seemed feasible to me; I banked on it last year and the match didn't disappoint, whatever the reason, so I figure I'll stand by it and see what happens. It'll be an interesting match to see, at least.

Thinking more about that... DMC was supposed to be the next Resident Evil after CV. But they scrapped it, added Dante, threw in an Onimusha air juggle glitch and there you have Devil May Cry (at least from what I read).
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swirIdude | Posted 9/8/2008 4:15:39 PM | message detail
I really want to see Pikachu in a 1 on 1 contest to see just how much he and other Pokemon have been boosted by the 4 way format.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 4:25:51 PM | message detail
Which Ryu Hayabusa do you guys like better for Rd 3?

http://img.imgcake.com/th/ryu1.png
http://img.imgcake.com/th/ryu2.png
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/8/2008 4:26:33 PM | message detail
How is Arthas NOT above diablo?

he uh.. beat diablo
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therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 4:29:16 PM | message detail
He barely edged out Diablo in a poll with Mega Man dominating the poll, and KOS-MOS picking up the slack. I'm pretty sure that if it were a one-on-one match, "the devil" would get more votes than "evil-looking dude" from people that don't really care for either...
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2008 4:30:07 PM | message detail
Why do people keep incinuating Diablo is weak or something. "It's not like Arthas could be above Diablo"... well no kidding, and he doesn't need to be excepting a huge Brawl boost considering who Ike was struggling with.

there's no way KOS-MOS >>>> Diablo.

with that said Diablo in a NORMAL format would probably barely beat Ike if anything; and i cant see Arthas being as strong as Diablo because he's the same name as his freaking game.

then you look at thrall and realize it's an easy choice.

i'm not saying Diablo's weak; it's just that i was comparing Arthas to Diablo's popularity.
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:30:20 PM | message detail
Mmmm... well, #2 looks a little better, but #1 is more likely to trigger reactions from those who played the old games/looks less out of place so I'm going to go with #1. (They're a tad too large though)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 4:31:14 PM | message detail
No offense, but does it really matter? I can't see Ryu Hayabusa getting past Vivi, much less Zero.

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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:32:57 PM | message detail
with that said Diablo in a NORMAL format would probably barely beat Ike if anything

Based on what, just boost speculation? Duke Nukem beating you all plausible SFF factors working for you does not speak good for your strength, and Brawl can only do so much.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/8/2008 4:33:20 PM | message detail
He barely edged out Diablo in a poll with Mega Man dominating the poll, and KOS-MOS picking up the slack. I'm pretty sure that if it were a one-on-one match, "the devil" would get more votes than "evil-looking dude" from people that don't really care for either...

But he didn't. People that year in oracles expected Diablo to double him. Arthas beat Diablo.

People keep on underestimating Arthas, and its happening this year too.
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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:34:36 PM | message detail
I think Ryu Hayabusa surprises this year. I don't have him hitting round 3, but it wouldn't totally blindside me. Heck, going 50/50 with Riku puts Zero and Vivi at least within striking range, and there's a NG2 boost for him.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2008 4:35:18 PM | message detail
Based on what, just boost speculation? Duke Nukem beating you all plausible SFF factors working for you does not speak good for your strength, and Brawl can only do so much.

well i really just compare Ike to the people under Diablo and go from there. does Ike lose to Kefka? maybe. does he lose to Ness indirectly? probably not by much.

he'd at least get something like 45%.

People that year in oracles expected Diablo to double him.

.. who were those?
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/8/2008 4:36:23 PM | message detail
Ryu can beat Vivi.

Ryu Hayabusa (2007c) VS Vivi (2007c)

Ryu Hayabusa has a strength of 23.73.
Vivi has a strength of 23.49.

Ryu Hayabusa wins with 50.51% of the vote!
A win of 1,280 with 126,534 total votes cast.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2008 4:37:14 PM | message detail
you do know that is based off of Vivi's split with Tidus right?

darn those stats!
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:37:22 PM | message detail
Diablo's not exactly right next to those guys in contest strength, though. He 55-45ed Kefka, so if you're at all questionable on Ike vs Kefka you really shouldn't say Ike probably beats Diablo.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 4:37:24 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/8/2008 4:38:03 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mega_Man_vs_KOS-MOS_vs_Arthas_vs_Diablo_2007

check oracle expectations
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swirIdude | Posted 9/8/2008 4:38:07 PM | message detail
You're of course using a Vivi value based on a match with Tidus in it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 4:38:56 PM | message detail
Yeah, Hayabusa seems to benefit from this format, so I wouldn't sell him out just yet. His first round match last year was one of the bigger shockers of the contest (Oddly similar to Dante/Leon/Pika in that respect). I still don't know how he managed to blow that second round match.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 4:40:03 PM | message detail
So why put forth any effort into any character that's going to lose? If that's the case. No offense, but that was a nonsensical question. This is the one chance that we've gotten to influence every single match pic in the contest and do all of our favorite characters justice. Is it a sin to ask which picture would be best for one of my favorite characters?

....You do realize you're taking to Mr. Contest Pics here? I only did about 40 of them so far.

And.I was just saying it would probably be best to wait until Ryu, you know, wins before making any match pics for matches that may never happen.

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therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 4:40:27 PM | message detail
Actually, scratch that last statement. I've been looking at my bracket wrong this whole time! I was thinking Zero/Snake/Ryu/Vivi was round 3 when I quick glanced the bracket.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/8/2008 4:40:29 PM | message detail
His first round match last year was one of the bigger shockers of the contest

Only in the margin of victory though, Ryu H winning without a sweat shouldn't have been a surprise.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/8/2008 4:40:38 PM | message detail
No need to be a discourager!
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Squall Leonhart's Path to the CBVII Championship
Round 1: CATS, Nathan Drake, Yoshi
therealmnm | Posted 9/8/2008 4:43:07 PM | message detail
Yeah, I thought that match was R3 and he was asking why did it even matter asking which picture was best for Ryu since he was going to lose that match anyways (implying that it won't matter what picture he gets so why bother). My bad if I came off defensive. I know you are Mr. Picture, that's why it kind of caught me off guard.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 4:43:57 PM | message detail
Right, no harm done then.

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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:47:20 PM | message detail
Eh, even considering Vivi was possibly underrated last year and last year's stats being nonsense.

Ryu Hayabusa (2006c) VS Vivi (2005c)

Ryu Hayabusa has a strength of 25.36.
Vivi has a strength of 27.26.

Vivi wins with 53.48% of the vote!
A win of 7,775 with 111,555 total votes cast.

Throw in a NG2 boost and an overall team X-Box boost from last year and Hayabusa is looking pretty good here heads up.

And hell, through Riku he looks way better. Recall Riku only lost to Yoshi by like 1% more than Zero did to Luigi. Riku could possibly take Zero 1v1 so if Ryu is his equal Zero is now within his grasp... despite losing by 20+% a few years ago.

Yeah, sounds like X-Stat manipulation when it goes that far, but few characters have less reason to improve than Ryu with the X-Box increase and NG2.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 4:47:24 PM | message detail
And on that subject...HAY GUYZ LOOK A CONTEST PIC!

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/6239/matchpic2tg7.jpg

Courtesy of HM, what 2nd round pics may look like.

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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 4:51:15 PM | message detail
Er... more reason, dammit. Right.

That match pic looks pretty solid... Ocelot getting a Young Ocelot hand gesture pic would be pretty sweet, I must say. Ocelot > Tifa imhhho.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 4:54:08 PM | message detail
You know, the more I think about it Zidane has a shot at wrecking everyone's brackets. I mean, if he upsets Shadow, what's stopping him from rolling over Zack? The two guys everyone are billing to get second in the division?

Of course, it's much more likely he loses in the first round. agh Division 1

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/8/2008 4:56:46 PM | message detail
What will stop Zidane? This is what'll stop zidane:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Cloud_Strife_vs_Squall_2004
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 5:01:39 PM | message detail
No one's even going to humor me, eh?

Well then...how bout that Zack Fair?

*runs*

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 9/8/2008 5:05:48 PM | message detail
zack would prolly sff cloud to the ground
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 5:07:29 PM | message detail
Lopen
Posted 9/8/2008 7:34:36 PM
message detail
#323 I think Ryu Hayabusa surprises this year. I don't have him hitting round 3, but it wouldn't totally blindside me. Heck, going 50/50 with Riku puts Zero and Vivi at least within striking range, and there's a NG2 boost for him.


1. Zero >> Riku 2 months after KH2 > Vivi > other Rikus
2. NG2 will have nowhere near the same effect on him as NG1 did
3. Zero already mopped the floor with Ryu, no way he's boosted enough in 2 years to cover a 25% spread, not to mention he looked worse in 2k6.

Yeah, Hayabusa seems to benefit from this format, so I wouldn't sell him out just yet. His first round match last year was one of the bigger shockers of the contest (Oddly similar to Dante/Leon/Pika in that respect). I still don't know how he managed to blow that second round match.

The only surprise last year was that he managed to comfortably beat Riku and Roxas combined, but the instant he had a certain badass with name recognition in the poll, he crumbled. Ironically enough, that same badass is in his match this year, with the added badassery of Zero thrown into the mix.

Come to think of it, Hayabusa has always looked great before running into a badass. Zero, Dante and Snake. The only exception is his 2k4 match against Sora, but he's definitely come a long way since then, and Sora is pretty damn strong in his own right.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 5:09:29 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato
Posted 9/8/2008 7:54:08 PM
message detail
#341 You know, the more I think about it Zidane has a shot at wrecking everyone's brackets. I mean, if he upsets Shadow, what's stopping him from rolling over Zack? The two guys everyone are billing to get second in the division?

Of course, it's much more likely he loses in the first round. agh Division 1


Once again, to reiterate, Zidane got killed last year by 3 midcarders. He's fodder line at best, and while Shadow certainly disappointed last year, he hasn't fallen THAT far. More and more I'm starting to think his match against Crono was legit, and no SFF was present. It just doesn't make sense for there to be considerable overlap between 3D Final Fantasy characters and Crono.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2008 5:14:53 PM | message detail
i dont think many people think Zidane is excessively overrated or anything.
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Explicit Contest is my lord.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2008 5:19:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, Zidane is a little underrated in the stats by not by much. I'm counting more on Link crippling Shadow.

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Lopen | Posted 9/8/2008 5:43:54 PM | message detail
He only looked worse in 2006 if you're wearing your Zero tinted shades that say Zero > Dante. Ryu Hayabusa has constantly been improving as X-Box hate goes lower and lower... NG2 is just gravy.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2008 7:29:26 PM | message detail
The more I think about it, the more I can't help but feel that Yoshi and Dante 2k6 are very very overrated. For a while, I felt that Yoshi's performance on Snake was legit, and our first actual measure of Yoshi strength, but nothing about it seems to add up. Yoshi = Squall? Riku being only slightly behind Sora? Dante boosting to hell and back for no apparant reason?

I know at the time of the match, people were chalking Dante/Ryu up to badass sword action guy SFF.

The worst part is, last year we couldn't get a decent read on Dante, Yoshi, Ryu OR Riku due to the assorted weirdness.

Maybe this is just another crazy BT theory, but the more I think about it, the more I feel Yoshi was hugely overrated against Solid **** (hell, if it can overrate Mario 1 Bowser, basically a green turd, it should do much better for the more photogenic Yoshi) which also overrates Riku, Dante, Yoshi and Ryu. I can't see Dante being too far off from Zero, especially last year after Zero redeemed himself and Link showed that 2k5 and 2k6 were SFF beat-downs. Meaning that Yoshi and Dante are closer to that Zero/Luigi/Kirby group than to the Squaurondorf elites.
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